World Politics Thread

[Mr.TaterSalad]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarians-vote-orbans-12-year-rule-tight-ballot-overshadowed-by-ukraine-war-2022-04-03/

Looks like resident Hungarian fascist Viktor Orban is set to win again in Hungary. That's scary and depressing.

[Jim Cowan]

3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarians-vote-orbans-12-year-rule-tight-ballot-overshadowed-by-ukraine-war-2022-04-03/

Looks like resident Hungarian fascist Viktor Orban is set to win again in Hungary. That's scary and depressing.

It's very gerrymandered. Last time he got 49% of the vote and 66% of the seats.

[gehringer_2]

Imran Khan out in Pakistan. Government in Pakistan has been a mess pretty much since Partition, but at least this time an orderly, court sanctioned Parliamentary vote of no confidence to remove a Prime Minister has beaten out the more typical Military Coup or assassination as the method of succession.

[buddha]

macron cruises to an easy win in france.

[1984Echoes]

A+

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

macron cruises to an easy win in france.

Putin cruises to a bruising defeat in France.

[buddha]

72% turnout.  very low for france.

macron won huge with older voters over 70 and younger voters under 25.  split the rest of the age cohorts.

le pen announces she wont run again.  this is the highest vote total the far right have ever achieved in france, probably due to the disintegration of the traditional center right and center left parties as well as her pivoting to mainstreaming her message to more of an anti-elite populist economic argument.

zemmour calls for a far right unity party, to bring them (and even the traditional center right) into one party to combat macron.  melanchon calls for the same thing on the left.

parliamentary elections in june.  en marche will probably win a majority there too.

marine le pen may be done, but watch out for her daughter.  she's as right wing as her mom but is younger and more charismatic.  we'll see if pecresse is still around in 5 years (doubtful considering how bad she flopped), but 5 years is an eternity in politics.

[romad1]

Fuck Le Pen voters.  Who cares what motivates scum?

[mtutiger]

I posted it in the other thread, but the coverage of the French election was complete malpractice by the US and international media.

Macron, particularly after round one when he outperformed his polls and started gaining between the first and second round, was obviously going to be reelected. That would have made the obvious play to profile the voters who would vote to give him another mandate, or profile what he may have planned for a second term.

Instead, we were treated out countless pieces discussing the 5% probability that Le Pen would be elected. Like, it would have taken by far the largest polling error in the history of the Republic, and one of the largest in world history, for that to have happened. Instead, it was covered as if it were more 60/40 that it would happen.

I get that there is long memories of Brexit and Trump's first election, but we need to stick with the facts... not gin up stories that don't align with the facts because it sells papers and draws eyeballs.

It just makes me feel that the media learned all the wrong lessons the past few uears.years 

[mtutiger]

A lot of Ws for liberal democratic values today

[buddha]

48 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I posted it in the other thread, but the coverage of the French election was complete malpractice by the US and international media.

Macron, particularly after round one when he outperformed his polls and started gaining between the first and second round, was obviously going to be reelected. That would have made the obvious play to profile the voters who would vote to give him another mandate, or profile what he may have planned for a second term.

Instead, we were treated out countless pieces discussing the 5% probability that Le Pen would be elected. Like, it would have taken by far the largest polling error in the history of the Republic, and one of the largest in world history, for that to have happened. Instead, it was covered as if it were more 60/40 that it would happen.

I get that there is long memories of Brexit and Trump's first election, but we need to stick with the facts... not gin up stories that don't align with the facts because it sells papers and draws eyeballs.

It just makes me feel that the media learned all the wrong lessons the past few uears.years 

but then they cant gin up clicks talking about the "death of democracy"!

macron benefits from le pen's past.  she'll never shake her dad's history.  zemmour is too radical.  the republicaines are finished as a party, so are the socialists.  so macron and his party are now the center left AND sort of center right.  good place to be.

there's a huge vacuum on the right waiting to be filled.  zemmour is right about that, but it cant be zemmour or marine le pen who does it.  it will have to be someone more palatable who doesnt have that past.  that's why i'll be interested to see if marine's daughter can separate herself from her grandfather in a way that marine could not from her father.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

Fuck Le Pen voters.  Who cares what motivates scum?

What motivates Trump voters? Anyways, it's good to see that far-right, wannabe fascist idiot go down in electoral flames!!!!! Fuck Marine Le Pen!

[Motown Bombers]

I'm confused. Le Pen lost the popular vote but didn't win the presidency?

Edited April 24, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm confused. Le Pen lost the popular vote but didn't win the presidency?

We're the only liberal democracy that does it this way because the founding fathers were smart enough to recognize that NYC, San Francisco, and LA shouldn't pick the Presidency. Rural land masses should.

[mtutiger]

47 minutes ago, buddha said:

but then they cant gin up clicks talking about the "death of democracy"!

macron benefits from le pen's past.  she'll never shake her dad's history.  zemmour is too radical.  the republicaines are finished as a party, so are the socialists.  so macron and his party are now the center left AND sort of center right.  good place to be.

there's a huge vacuum on the right waiting to be filled.  zemmour is right about that, but it cant be zemmour or marine le pen who does it.  it will have to be someone more palatable who doesnt have that past.  that's why i'll be interested to see if marine's daughter can separate herself from her grandfather in a way that marine could not from her father.

It's true about the clicks... I sometimes feel like they learned all the wrong lessons from Brexit and Trump and almost seem to yearn for hyping right wing candidates to drive readership. Conspiratorial, maybe, but setting aside left/right bias, we all know media companies also have a bias toward making money.

Zemmour almost acted like a stalking horse for Le Pen to seem more moderate or sane in comparison (not sure if that's the case or not, but it kinda worked out that way anyway). And I dont know that it's a coincidence that Macron started gaining after the first round once Zemmour was off the stage... all eyes were on her and, though she did somewhat better this time, for the most part, she did a good job reminding a lot of French voters what they didn't like about her five year ago.

As for the future, you are correct, with the caveat that it's more of a three wing system now with the Melanchon bloc of voters. They may not be quite as big as the other two, but it stands to reason in France's system, they could find themselves in the Kingmaker role frequently going forward.

Edited April 24, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

Thinking a little more about the coverage of the French Presidential Election, it reminds me a lot of California Recall election last year in that, while it may have been close at one point, it didn't last and, just as it was the case then, the media did not recalibrate once that trend away took place.

And naturally, when the polls start trending toward more right leaning candidates, that recalibration tends to happen (see Virginia 2021)... for some reason it doesn't happen much in the other direction 

In the grand scheme of things it may not be that big of a deal, but I do worry that the outsized coverage can be a boon for nutjob candidates.

Edited April 24, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Thinking a little more about the coverage of the French Presidential Election, it reminds me a lot of California Recall election last year in that, while it may have been close at one point, it didn't last and, just as it was the case then, the media did not recalibrate once that trend away took place.

And naturally, when the polls start trending toward more right leaning candidates, that recalibration tends to happen (see Virginia 2021)... for some reason it doesn't happen much in the other direction 

In the grand scheme of things it may not be that big of a deal, but I do worry that the outsized coverage can be a boon for nutjob candidates.

Politics is more Sports&Entertainment to Americans than civic responsibility. Thus the media gives it the horse-race, because that is all that holds consumer eyeballs.

[buddha]

21 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Politics is more Sports&Entertainment to Americans than civic responsibility. Thus the media gives it the horse-race, because that is all that holds consumer eyeballs.

other countries also dont have our ridiculous primary system.  the elections are over very quickly after they begin and arent drawn out over a two year period.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

other countries also dont have our ridiculous primary system.  the elections are over very quickly after they begin and arent drawn out over a two year period.

Well, the GOP is trying to take care of that.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

It's true about the clicks... I sometimes feel like they learned all the wrong lessons from Brexit and Trump and almost seem to yearn for hyping right wing candidates to drive readership. Conspiratorial, maybe, but setting aside left/right bias, we all know media companies also have a bias toward making money.

Zemmour almost acted like a stalking horse for Le Pen to seem more moderate or sane in comparison (not sure if that's the case or not, but it kinda worked out that way anyway). And I dont know that it's a coincidence that Macron started gaining after the first round once Zemmour was off the stage... all eyes were on her and, though she did somewhat better this time, for the most part, she did a good job reminding a lot of French voters what they didn't like about her five year ago.

As for the future, you are correct, with the caveat that it's more of a three wing system now with the Melanchon bloc of voters. They may not be quite as big as the other two, but it stands to reason in France's system, they could find themselves in the Kingmaker role frequently going forward.

zemmour was much more right wing than le pen, if that's what you mean.  zemmour was a radio/print personality (the french, unlike americans, value intellectuals and authors) who made his name as very anti-immigrant and pro-nativist (interesting coming from a french/algerian jew).  he was much further right wing than le pen.  le pen, otoh, has been moving to the center and away from the far right on many issues.  she embraced right wing popularism and "anti elite" language.

melachon was the same, but on the other end of the political spectrum.  both he and le pen want to raise taxes on the rich, increase the social welfare state and lower the retirement age.  le pen is much more "anti muslim" than melanchon, but no mainstream french politician would really embrace a "pro muslim" platform the way the democratic party has embraced left wing black politics following george floyd's death.  even macron is against the hijab in certain situations and very pro-french.

in one way the politics are similar to here in that macron represents the elite in the same way the democrats do here and le pen is very trumpian in her nationalism and anti immigrant rhetoric.  but in france you have an actual candidate who espouses pro worker/anti capitalist policies (melanchon) whereas here the democrats have given that up and instead focus more on one's racial and sexual "identity" rather than ones class.

[gehringer_2]

22 minutes ago, buddha said:

but no mainstream french politician would really embrace a "pro muslim" platform the way the democratic party has embraced left wing black politics following george floyd's death.

The French intellectual tradition would attempt to separate the Muslim from Islam wouldn't it?  In that sense a French 'pro-Muslim' position is anti-racist (i.e. 'good') while the anti-hijab position is secularist/anti-religious (also 'good'). So the positions are not necessary contradictory by French logic. But of course the at least partial irony is that at from a fundamentalist Muslim perspective, the division of the religious and political is a completely false dichotomy. So Macron is fine with Muslims - as long as they are secularized. So the overlay is sort of a separation of 'Muslim' as a religious marker vs a nationality marker. The French intellectual estab being more at ease with the later than the former. Which is not too terribly different from the situation here, the French positions are just more explicit.

The American right extols religion - as long as it's their version of Christianity, while most of the US left disdains it (the once vibrant American Christian left having exited, stage left), while still willing to hold their nose and accept a general non-preferential religious freedom at the theoretical level - esp if it's non-Christian.

Edited April 25, 2022 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The French intellectual tradition would attempt to separate the Muslim from Islam wouldn't it?  In that sense a French 'pro-Muslim' position is anti-racist (i.e. 'good') while the anti-hijab position is secularist/anti-religious (also 'good'). So the positions are not necessary contradictory by French logic. But of course the at least partial irony is that at from a fundamentalist Muslim perspective, the division of the religious and political is a completely false dichotomy. So Macron is fine with Muslims - as long as they are secularized. So the overlay is sort of a separation of 'Muslim' as a religious marker vs a nationality marker. The French intellectual estab being more at ease with the later than the former. Which is not too terribly different from the situation here, the French positions are just more explicit.

The American right extols religion - as long as it's their version of Christianity, while most of the US left disdains it, while still willing to hold their nose and accept a general non-preferential religious freedom at the theoretical level.

the french are more strident about their secularism than we are.  every citizen is a citizen, and citizens should not be separated by race/religion, etc.  if you are french, you are french.  there is no "african-frenchman" like there is here.  the french - and really, no one else - is as obsessed with "race" as we are.  for obvious historical reasons.

mainstream france is not anti-immigrant, but they are very pro french and pro-assimilationist.  i would say that they - and most old european societies - are not as pro immigrant as the united states given the difference in histories and the us's history as an immigrant society.

[mtutiger]

48 minutes ago, buddha said:

In one way the politics are similar to here in that macron represents the elite in the same way the democrats do here and le pen is very trumpian in her nationalism and anti immigrant rhetoric.  but in france you have an actual candidate who espouses pro worker/anti capitalist policies (melanchon) whereas here the democrats have given that up and instead focus more on one's racial and sexual "identity" rather than ones class.

If we had the French system (which, IMO, is the platonic ideal in terms of how they elect their Presidents), we probably would have a candidate who espoused those beliefs.

But don't need to beat the horse about our terrible system again lol.

[gehringer_2]

52 minutes ago, buddha said:

the french are more strident about their secularism than we are.  every citizen is a citizen, and citizens should not be separated by race/religion, etc.  if you are french, you are french.  there is no "african-frenchman" like there is here.  the french - and really, no one else - is as obsessed with "race" as we are.  for obvious historical reasons.

mainstream france is not anti-immigrant, but they are very pro french and pro-assimilationist.  i would say that they - and most old european societies - are not as pro immigrant as the united states given the difference in histories and the us's history as an immigrant society.

I agree with all this. But would add that the at one time the US was probably also just as powerfully assimilationist.  The increased tolerance for the 'idea' of non-assimilated immigrants - esp on the left, is pretty much a development in my lifetime (the general rise of cultural relativism). I say 'idea', because in practice immigrant populations in the US do assimilate within 2 generations regardless of whether the chattering classes happen to see that more as an expression of moral uprightness or cultural genocide -- Of course with the glaring exception of any group that can be considered 'black' by American social construct.

Edited April 25, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

When do the patriots storm the French parliament to overturn the election?