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The race to .500


RedRamage
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Right now the Tigers are 68 and 76.  Obviously they need 13 wins to get to ensure they finish at least .500. Is that doable?  Here's the remaining schedule:

  • 2x Brewers (89-55) - Maybe they get one against the Brewers as an NL team doesn't have a standard DH type of player. (1)
  • 4x @ Rays (89-55) - Can we get one... maybe two in Tampa?  I'm thinking just 1. (2)
  • 3x White Sox (82-61) - Hosting the White Sox who are still playing for post season position. We'll be lucky to get 1. (3)
  • 3x Royals (65-78) - Hosting Royals, we should be able to get 2 here. (5)
  • 3x @ Twins (63-81) - At the Twinkies and we haven't played well against them this year.  I'm going to say 1. (6)
  • 3x @ White Sox (82-61) - Hopefully everything is decided for the White Sox at this point and they're resting.  I'll be optimistic and say 2. (8)

So predicting only 8.  Maybe we'll pick up a few more here or there but I think it's very unlikely we'll hit .500 this year. 😞




 

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Yes, probably unlikely they hit .500 this year with the remaining schedule as it is.  However, they have played much better than I believe most expected, so we should be pleased.  Take away April and they were a pretty good team this season.  Future looks bright!

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This season astounds me. The guys I thought would be “role players“ and “fill ins“ have exceeded expectations. The aggressiveness on the base paths the strategic hitting, and the fruitful instruction that is obviously taking place is a joy to behold. AJ and his crew are truly gifted. Although I have nothing to back this up, I always thought that there was a kind of old school toleration for substandard coaching at the minor-league level which now no longer seems to be the case. But like I said I have no real insight into the coaching at the minor-league level but the guys seem to be prospering in ways they didn’t used to. This team is fun to follow even when they lose because they truly never give up. 

I know that changes in managerial and coaching staff are generally underrated as being of substantial efficacy by a lot of people. But if management and instruction works in all sorts of other institutional settings I don’t know why it wouldn’t work in baseball. Whatever changes have happened have worked. 

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1 hour ago, oblong said:

More than .500 I would like them to catch Cleveland and finish in second place.

 

 

That's still a reachable goal at this point.  Tigers schedule is still tough, but they've been finding ways to win despite the tough teams.  If they make it through this weekend with no worse than a split, we have a good shot at second.

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It is surely not impossible. Given their ability to defy expectations I wouldn’t be any more surprised by them doing it than by not doing it. 

They would have to go 11-5 against the rest of the schedule and ten of those games are against AL divisional leaders with a cumulative .5945 W/PCT. The other six are against MIN and KC at .4452. Only six of these games are home games. I’m honestly more worried about the games against Minnesota and Kansas City.

If all things were equal AJ could conceivably receive official kudos with a .500 finish, but all things are not equal for obvious reasons and it would still be unlikely without those obstacles. But due to a superior coaching staff the Tigers are beginning to “play the game the right way.” This is truly an exciting time to be a Tigers fan. 

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1 hour ago, IdahoBert said:

It is surely not impossible. Given their ability to defy expectations I wouldn’t be any more surprised by them doing it than by not doing it. 

They would have to go 11-5 against the rest of the schedule and ten of those games are against AL divisional leaders with a cumulative .5945 W/PCT. The other six are against MIN and KC at .4452. Only six of these games are home games. I’m honestly more worried about the games against Minnesota and Kansas City.

If all things were equal AJ could conceivably receive official kudos with a .500 finish, but all things are not equal for obvious reasons and it would still be unlikely without those obstacles. But due to a superior coaching staff the Tigers are beginning to “play the game the right way.” This is truly an exciting time to be a Tigers fan. 

Sadly, they will probably lose ground against the Palehose - 4-9 against them this season.

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On 9/14/2021 at 9:49 AM, RedRamage said:

Right now the Tigers are 68 and 76.  Obviously they need 13 wins to get to ensure they finish at least .500. Is that doable?  Here's the remaining schedule:

So predicting only 8.  Maybe we'll pick up a few more here or there but I think it's very unlikely we'll hit .500 this year. 

  • 2x Brewers (89-55) - Two game sweep. (2)
  • 4x @ Rays (89-55) - Tigers take two of four. (4)
  • 3x White Sox (82-61) - Hosting the White Sox who are still playing for post season position. We'll be lucky to get 1. (5)
  • 3x Royals (65-78) - Hosting Royals, we should be able to get 2 here. (7)
  • 3x @ Twins (63-81) - At the Twinkies and we haven't played well against them this year.  I'm going to say 1. (8)
  • 3x @ White Sox (82-61) - Hopefully everything is decided for the White Sox at this point and they're resting.  I'll be optimistic and say 2. (10)

Tigers out performing my expectations.  Still only see 10 wins and we need 13 from these 6 series.  But still impressive work.

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I've been stuck on 75 as a base line, but the base line is increasingly looking like 77 or 78.

It's really incredible. We just keep waiting for the shoe to drop for this team and it never really does.

Edited by mtutiger
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3 hours ago, RedRamage said:
  • 2x Brewers (89-55) - Two game sweep. (2)
  • 4x @ Rays (89-55) - Tigers take two of four. (4)
  • 3x White Sox (82-61) - Hosting the White Sox who are still playing for post season position. We'll be lucky to get 1. (5)
  • 3x Royals (65-78) - Hosting Royals, we should be able to get 2 here. (7)
  • 3x @ Twins (63-81) - At the Twinkies and we haven't played well against them this year.  I'm going to say 1. (8)
  • 3x @ White Sox (82-61) - Hopefully everything is decided for the White Sox at this point and they're resting.  I'll be optimistic and say 2. (10)

Tigers out performing my expectations.  Still only see 10 wins and we need 13 from these 6 series.  But still impressive work.

Soto is big loss. if they hold to 500 the rest of the way I'd take that as a serious over-achievement.

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Soto is big loss. if they hold to 500 the rest of the way I'd take that as a serious over-achievement.

Setting aside the concern going forward regarding the bullpen sans Soto, this upcoming stretch (at least on paper) should be easier than the last 9 games, where they went 6-3.

But this stretch is a good challenge for this club in that, while they continue to play good ball against teams outside of the division, they struggle within the division. You have four series against teams in division, including two with a Sox team that is playing less inspired ball than when they last saw them. 

I'd like to see them win at least a couple of these series to close it out. They've shown they can take it to some of the best teams in baseball, I'd like to see them not play down to the division.

Edited by mtutiger
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Also...

We ain't selecting #1 in next year's draft either!!!

I think we are currently sitting at #11 and can still move a few spots lower (passing Angels (1/2 game above us), Mets (1 game above us) & Indians (2.5 game above us)). We could also do higher than 11, getting up to 10th if we pass the Rockies in the other direction (1.5 game below us) but the next team is the Royals (4.5 game below us) and that seems too impossible of a swing.

We're going to finish in the 10th to 14th draft spot this year which is another marker for the progress we've made this year.

I don't think we get any closer to .500 than we are now. A month or so ago I said it looked like we were going to finish in the 74 to 78 win range. It looks like we're still in that target range, and maybe at the high point of that... but anyways, we'll see what the team comes up with in the last dozen games...

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On 9/19/2021 at 4:33 PM, mtutiger said:

I've been stuck on 75 as a base line, but the base line is increasingly looking like 77 or 78.

It's really incredible. We just keep waiting for the shoe to drop for this team and it never really does.

I think 75 would be amazing. 

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7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

at this point I care less about the record than the chance to catch Cleveland. Tied in the win column, 2 back in the loss column.

Yeah... Royals single-handedly put 2nd place back on the table today, didn't they?

Edited by mtutiger
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19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Yeah... Royals single-handedly put 2nd place back on the table today, didn't they?

PS: One other thing...

2nd Place really looks attractive to prospective FA's looking for an up-and-coming team, methinks...

Especially if we get Verlander for 1-year/ $15-20 Mill right off the bat.

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