Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[Jason_R]

Chris needs to determine whether it’s worth a third of a billion dollars to have the hope of someday building a statue of a homegrown talent outside Tiger Stadium (or whatever the hell bank it is named for today).

Skubal needs to determine whether he will settle for a third of a billion. 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

Where you completely lose credibility is saying we will be set back 10 years if we don’t trade Skubal.  I think our reputation in the clubhouse or FA’s may be set back considerably if we do, as it would clearly show we aren’t willing to take a chance.

Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize (as well as Delmon Young and Jarikson Profar) were #1 overall prospects.  The prospects we get for Skubal are as likely to become them as stars.  (And I don’t think we get Painter for 1 year of Skubal from the Phillies side either.  1 year pitchers just haven’t gotten the type of returns it seems you are expecting-and I wouldn’t make the trades for what you’re expecting.  A slightly better Corbin Burnes return is likely what we’d get and 1 year of Skubal on a competing team is worth more than that to me.
 

We currently have 4 top 50 prospects depending on multiple sites.  And Liranzo is a top 100 on some.  See above-not all will pan out, but our cupboard is not bare at all   We are not set back 10 years if we don’t trade him.

No pitcher has ever been traded under 30 years old with back to back cy youngs. The price is astronomical.  Painter, Miller and Crawford is a reasonable price to get back compared to the other floated offers...... And Dave Dombrowski trades prospects to win now. Thats his MO

[papalawrence]

Can you imagine the Dodgers going after Skubal? They have the prospects. With Skubal and if they stay healthy, I don't see any team beating them 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

24 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

Can you imagine the Dodgers going after Skubal? They have the prospects. With Skubal and if they stay healthy, I don't see any team beating them 

Hope they do. They got 3 OF'rs as their top 3 prospects (and all 3 of their OF'rs are under contract for 3 more years). I'd want Rushing as the center piece plus 2 of those OF'rs. Even if we throw Max Anderson or Jace Jung back (they short on IF help). Great team to trade w/.

Edited October 15 by AlaskanTigersFan

[papalawrence]

25 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Hope they do. They got 3 OF'rs as their top 3 prospects (and all 3 of their OF'rs are under contract for 3 more years). I'd want Rushing as the center piece plus 2 of those OF'rs. Even if we throw Max Anderson or Jace Jung back (they short on IF help). Great team to trade w/.

Can you imagine a rotation of Skubal, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Glasnow, Sasaki and more?

[gehringer_2]

58 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Hope they do. They got 3 OF'rs as their top 3 prospects (and all 3 of their OF'rs are under contract for 3 more years). I'd want Rushing as the center piece plus 2 of those OF'rs. Even if we throw Max Anderson or Jace Jung back (they short on IF help). Great team to trade w/.

Cautionary tale. There was a time that the Dodgers had a #1 prospect young outfielder everyone was salivating over. Boston finally pried him loose in return for Mokie Betts. Since the trade, Betts has put up another 32 WAR, Alex Verdugo has produced 8.6 and doesn't seem to have much left at only 29 (Jeter Downs didn't produce any). It's *really* hard to match any young player(s) to a superstar. You just never know ⚠️

Edited October 15 by gehringer_2

[4hzglory]

7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Cautionary tale. There was a time that the Dodgers had a #1 prospect young outfielder everyone was salivating over. Boston finally pried him loose in return for Mokie Betts. Since the trade, Betts has put up another 32 WAR, Alex Verdugo has produced 8.6 and doesn't seem to have much left at only 29 (Jeter Downs didn't produce any). It's *really* hard to match any young player(s) to a superstar. You just never know ⚠️

Add Gavin Lux and Willie Calhoun to the list of former untouchable Dodger prospects who “couldn’t miss” and now, well…..

Those trades, especially the Red Sox set the teams getting the prospects back a number of years.

[papalawrence]

When the Red Sox traded Betts for a big package, it could be argued that not signing him was an impetus for a Red Sox backslide. In fact, I'd argue that more often than not, the team that trades a superstar typically gets far less in return in the long run. Harris knows that. I still don't think it's his preference to have such a heavy contract, but odds are, if a trade is made, Detroit will be a diminished team both next year and into the future. You just don't breed a CY. Detroit has been blessed to have JV, Max and now Skubal......and still they don't have a ring to show for it

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

When the Red Sox traded Betts for a big package, it could be argued that not signing him was an impetus for a Red Sox backslide. In fact, I'd argue that more often than not, the team that trades a superstar typically gets far less in return in the long run. Harris knows that. I still don't think it's his preference to have such a heavy contract, but odds are, if a trade is made, Detroit will be a diminished team both next year and into the future. You just don't breed a CY. Detroit has been blessed to have JV, Max and now Skubal......and still they don't have a ring to show for it

The other extreme end way to look at the argument is that your one year of your superstar may be worth 6-8 WAR plus the economic value of a playoff run, and you get a high comp pick, which gives you a shot at a guy with as good a set of odds of success as a prospect you get in trade;  compared against getting a prospect or two in a trade, from the team that knows them best and is still willing to part with them, who have a good chance of having less career WAR than your star produced in that one year you kept him.

And I think for Harris the high pick has a lot of appeal because he knows what he wants in a pick and it's probably not what a lot of teams draft for.

Edited October 15 by gehringer_2

[4hzglory]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The other extreme end way to look at the argument is that your one year of your superstar may be worth 6-8 WAR plus the economic value of a playoff run, and you get a high comp pick, which gives you a shot at a guy with as good a set of odds of success as a prospect you get in trade;  compared against getting a prospect or two the trade, from the team that knows them best and is still willing to part with them, who have a good chance of having less career WAR than your star produced in that one year you kept him.

Exactly, which is why I don't think it makes any sense to trade Skubal.  I also think it would have a very significant impact on the rest of the team, and risk a lot of the chemistry the team has developed.  Would guys be as accepting of being pinch hit for, for example, if they don't think management is giving them a chance to continue building on what they've done the past 2 seasons.

[buddha]

if they trade skubal they are most likely going to lose the trade because skubal is already a great player and most prospects - now matter how highly they are ranked - do not pan out.

otoh, there is a very good chance that skubal gets injured again and/or declines from this peak soon (and will still likely outperform any prospect package).  only the tigers know their budget.  do they want to spend 25% of it on one player?

if you held a gun to my head, i'd say they dont trade him, cant re-sign him, and he walks.  but that next year will be very fun when he pitches.

[1984Echoes]

15 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

... We currently have 4 top 50 prospects depending on multiple sites.  And Liranzo is a top 100 on some.  See above-not all will pan out, but our cupboard is not bare at all   We are not set back 10 years if we don’t trade him.

This is a true statement.

So I'm not on the PANIC-side of this... which it seems a few of us are. And quite a few are not in panic mode.

To me, it's quite simple:

A) Sign him to an extension this offseason.

B) No extension? See what the offers are. A Godfather offer? I say yes to that.

C) NO extension and NO Godfather offer...? Keep him. Play out 2026 with Skubal at the top of the rotation and take the comp pick.

Screw a trade deadline trade... I'm not even considering that.

It's as easy, and as simple, as A-B-C.

To me.

[oblong]

22 minutes ago, buddha said:

 

if you held a gun to my head, i'd say they dont trade him, cant re-sign him, and he walks.  but that next year will be very fun when he pitches.

That's what will happen and it will work out for everyone involved.  Someone else said it before about there being a special group of starters recently that might have skewed our perspective.... Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer.  Those guys are rare and Skubal, odds are, won't join them.  He could.  But that's a risk you have to evaluate.

If money were no concern and they were willing to pay it, and it didn't cost them anything except money, then sure, sign him, be sentimental about it, ride it out, let him go into the HOF and be a franchise player who will get a statue.  But if signing him means they now have some kind of restraints going forward then don't.  I don't want a repeat of the mid 2010's where our deals meant we had to sacrifice roster flexibility and moves because of dead contracts.

 

[Edman85]

The following can all be true.

• Tarik Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball 2024-2025.
• That does not mean Tarik Skubal will be the best pitcher in baseball, or even a good pitcher 2027-2037.
• The Tigers cannot unilaterally make Tarik Skubal accept a contract after 2026; therefore him not signing an extension or re-signing as a free agent doesn't fully fall on them.
• The Tigers should not pay a premium to keep Tarik Skubal. That involves the loss aversion fallacy.
• Tarik Skubal should not take a discount to stay with the Tigers.

[gehringer_2]

I think the other thing that is true is that this is not like the Scherzer episode. To me Scherzer was an unforced error because we offered competitive money ( once the amortizations were figured in) and Max knew that full well, but he wanted to leave. 

I think all things being equal Tarik would be happy to remain a Tiger, but the economics have shifted so much in terms of the rich teams having stupid high incomes to throw around now that the Tigers cannot reasonable offer what he will likely be offered.

[HeyAbbott]

55 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

This is a true statement.

So I'm not on the PANIC-side of this... which it seems a few of us are. And quite a few are not in panic mode.

To me, it's quite simple:

A) Sign him to an extension this offseason.

B) No extension? See what the offers are. A Godfather offer? I say yes to that.

C) NO extension and NO Godfather offer...? Keep him. Play out 2026 with Skubal at the top of the rotation and take the comp pick.

Screw a trade deadline trade... I'm not even considering that.

It's as easy, and as simple, as A-B-C.

To me.

This is the most sensible thing yet that has been said about the Skubal extension.

[buddha]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

This is a true statement.

So I'm not on the PANIC-side of this... which it seems a few of us are. And quite a few are not in panic mode.

To me, it's quite simple:

A) Sign him to an extension this offseason.

B) No extension? See what the offers are. A Godfather offer? I say yes to that.

C) NO extension and NO Godfather offer...? Keep him. Play out 2026 with Skubal at the top of the rotation and take the comp pick.

Screw a trade deadline trade... I'm not even considering that.

It's as easy, and as simple, as A-B-C.

To me.

what if theyre out of it at the deadline?  dont you deal him then?  i would.

[monkeytargets39]

The Skubal problem would have been quite a bit less complicated if Jobe hadn’t gotten injured.  I’d feel a lot better about keeping Skubal and letting him walk if we had an heir apparent in house.

[Shinzaki]

Offer him 5ys at 45 mil per.

If he says no..start listening to offers

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

what if theyre out of it at the deadline?  dont you deal him then?  i would.

I don't think the trade deadline offers will be worth more than Skubal playing out the season PLUS the comp pick.

I think those will be subpar offers and I'd rather just hang out with Skubal for the last of the season.

Now... the offseason offers MIGHT get us a Godfather offer we can't refuse...

But I don't think we'll get good enough offers at the deadline so my inclination is to just write that off as a possibility.

[buddha]

7 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think the trade deadline offers will be worth more than Skubal playing out the season PLUS the comp pick.

I think those will be subpar offers and I'd rather just hang out with Skubal for the last of the season.

Now... the offseason offers MIGHT get us a Godfather offer we can't refuse...

But I don't think we'll get good enough offers at the deadline so my inclination is to just write that off as a possibility.

if youre out of it, you trade him.

[Tigermojo]

12 minutes ago, buddha said:

if youre out of it, you trade him.

Are we out of it or are 0.2% out of it?

[1984Echoes]

25 minutes ago, buddha said:

if youre out of it, you trade him.

If the trade return is FAR more than a comp pick...

And, HOW FAR out of it would we need to be?

A couple games out of the wild card or division doesn't make me want to trade him.

So... how far out? And what trade package at the deadline says "oh, we should do this as it's far superior to a comp pick at the end of the 1st round" ?

(26-30-ish per what some others have posted in here some where...)

[1984Echoes]

34 minutes ago, buddha said:

if youre out of it, you trade him.

For example:

If the Pirates offered us Paul Skenes and Konnor Griffin for Skubal, at the trade deadline, I would say yes.

But then...

Is that very likely?

[buddha]

46 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

For example:

If the Pirates offered us Paul Skenes and Konnor Griffin for Skubal, at the trade deadline, I would say yes.

But then...

Is that very likely?

go home 84, youre drunk.