2025-2026 Tigers Off Season Thread

[casimir]

2 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

$1.5 million if he gets to MLB. That's less than $15K per win!

Using that math, $2.43M for a season of Bregman would yield 162 wins.  This might be the new market inefficiency to explore.  Stay tuned.....

[SoCalTiger]

3 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Nido back on a minor league deal. Return to the post season assured.

Rogers traded or non tendered ?

[casimir]

Just now, SoCalTiger said:

Rogers traded or non tendered ?

Retained.

[Tigermojo]

5 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Rogers traded or non tendered ?

He's safe.

 

[Tiger337]

I think Rogers will be kept.  You need to have a proven catch and throw guy as back-up catcher.  Rogers can't hit, but Nido's track record as a hitter is no better.  

[chasfh]

Jake might be on the bubble. Three and a quarter million is a lot for a catch and throw guy, but then, he is a well-known quantity to the pitchers and that counts for something. If he does come back, pretty likely it’s his final year here.

Edited October 31 by chasfh

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Jake might be on the bubble. Three and a quarter million is a lot for a catch and throw guy, but then, he is a well-known quantity to the pitchers and that counts for something. If he does come back, pretty likely it’s his final year here.

I don't really have a good handle on how to measure the value of catcher defense because the pitcher management part is such an unknown.  Pitcher management could be really big or it could be BS, probably depending on pitcher/catcher duos and the manager.  I think it's still the biggest unkown in player value analysis, but I get the sense that Rogers is valued beyond the available stats which I of course can not prove.      

[Tigermojo]

I didn't realize Rogers is 30 already. He was worth 2 WAR in 2024 for his defense. I could see a team being interested but they wouldn't offer much in a trade. He could become a victim of the roster crunch.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't really have a good handle on how to measure the value of catcher defense because the pitcher management part is such an unknown.  Pitcher management could be really big or it could be BS, probably depending on pitcher/catcher duos and the manager.  I think it's still the biggest unkown in player value analysis, but I get the sense that Rogers is valued beyond the available stats which I of course can not prove.      

With ABS coming, the skill of framing is going to be even more valuable, especially below the zone. Catchers who are good at doing it subtly are going to succeed while catchers who are super obvious about it won’t be as successful with ABS. Jake was not as good as Dingler at that this year, but he was still in the top third of the league, so that might be worth the three bills we’ll have to pay.

[Shelton]

Just now, Tigermojo said:

I didn't realize Rogers is 30 already. He was worth 2 WAR in 2024 for his defense. I could see a team being interested but they wouldn't offer much in a trade. He could become a victim of the roster crunch.

I don’t think roster crunch will be an issue, unless there is another MLB caliber catcher on the 40 man that I am forgetting. Point being, there is a fixed roster spot for a backup catcher and it will rogers or someone else not in the org. 
 

With Nido already secured via minor league deal, we have the depth needed. 
 

Jake will be back. Harris doesn’t worry about a few million over a single year, especially when there isn’t a reasonable replacement available at a lower cost. 
 

 

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

With ABS coming, the skill of framing is going to be even more valuable, especially below the zone. Catchers who are good at doing it subtly are going to succeed while catchers who are super obvious about it won’t be as successful with ABS. Jake was not as good as Dingler at that this year, but he was still in the top third of the league, so that might be worth the three bills we’ll have to pay.

Tell me more about your logic here. If it's the batter who decides to challenge and he can't even see the catcher, how does his framing affect what pitches get challenged?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Tell me more about your logic here. If it's the batter who decides to challenge and he can't even see the catcher, how does his framing affect what pitches get challenged?

The bottom rail is where batters have the most trouble telling whether pitches hit the zone or not, so that’s where catchers should have the most success framing in the ABS era. Top rail, inside, outside, batters have a much better idea whether a pitch hits the zone. 

[IdahoBert]

Per Harris: “I hope that I've demonstrated here that we're focused on winning baseball games and trying to win a World Series, not winters or deadlines,” Harris said earlier this month. “Sometimes that means that we're going to go into a winter and we're going to chase the flashiest name, and we're going to offer a lot of money. And sometimes that means we're going to go into a winter and focus on more targeted needs. I don't know exactly what this winter is going to be.”

I don’t think I actually believe he’s uncertain about what he wants to do except for the goal of winning the World Series. But of course he’s not going to be open about it.

[Dan Gilmore]

I imagine Harris has the variables of whether Torres and Flaherty are back to consider and how the answer to that would impact his focus. I assume they have made the decision on whether or not to offer QO to each, although we may not know what that decision is until 11/18.

[Tiger337]

52 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

Per Harris: “I hope that I've demonstrated here that we're focused on winning baseball games and trying to win a World Series, not winters or deadlines,” Harris said earlier this month. “Sometimes that means that we're going to go into a winter and we're going to chase the flashiest name, and we're going to offer a lot of money. And sometimes that means we're going to go into a winter and focus on more targeted needs. I don't know exactly what this winter is going to be.”

I don’t think I actually believe he’s uncertain about what he wants to do except for the goal of winning the World Series. But of course he’s not going to be open about it.

He's very good at managementspeak.  Dombrowski was the king of managementspeak.  He somehow managed to do it with a flair.

Edited October 31 by Tiger337

[Tigermojo]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

He's very good at managementspeak.  Dombrowski was the king of managementspeak.  He somehow managed to do it with a flair.

You try and trade them when all they want is Troy Melton!

[IdahoBert]

16 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

He's very good at managementspeak.  Dombrowski was the king of managementspeak.  He somehow managed to do it with a flair.

I love how DD used to procure some non-entity no one had thought about and add the secret sauce by saying “we’ve had our eye on player XYZ squared for a long time.”

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

I love how DD used to procure some non-entity no one had thought about and add the secret sauce by saying “we’ve had our eye on player XYZ squared for a long time.”

He's a quality player and we are pleased to add him to our ballclub.  

[papalawrence]

Watching Tigers Territory today. They said early Vegas pennant odds have Detroit 8th in the AL. Maybe they expect Skubal gone, or more likely, they see the holes on the team. Probably factoring in both. They stressed that it shows Det needs to take steps this off-season to improve. Also has me pondering throwing small wager on Detroit now.

[Archie]

49 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

Watching Tigers Territory today. They said early Vegas pennant odds have Detroit 8th in the AL. Maybe they expect Skubal gone, or more likely, they see the holes on the team. Probably factoring in both. They stressed that it shows Det needs to take steps this off-season to improve. Also has me pondering throwing small wager on Detroit now.

If Skubal was traded this winter the Tigers should get at least two established players and a prospect or two. If Harris trades Skubal for a couple of highly rated but unproven prospects he should be fired.  The idea of trading Skubal this winter is to get the best return. They will be able to get prospects in July. 

[SoCalTiger]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

The bottom rail is where batters have the most trouble telling whether pitches hit the zone or not, so that’s where catchers should have the most success framing in the ABS era. Top rail, inside, outside, batters have a much better idea whether a pitch hits the zone. 

Yes this is opposite my understanding which I note could be wrong but if the computer is calling balls and strikes does it matter at all how the pitch is caught? I thought it’s either in the box or not. My assumption was catchers and framing well be less valuable. 

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Yes this is opposite my understanding which I note could be wrong but if the computer is calling balls and strikes does it matter at all how the pitch is caught? I thought it’s either in the box or not. My assumption was catchers and framing well be less valuable. 

the computer looks at them all but it only 'calls' the ones that are challenged. So there is a whole unknown about whether having a lot of calls reversed will actually make the umpires that are not precise today get more precise. The league certainly has data about that from the minors but you can bet they are not going to share it. I guess my question to chasfh would actually boil down to whether it's possible for catchers to do any more 'framing' than they are doing now even if there may be some additional benefit to it on certain pitches that aren't challenged.

[romad1]

2 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Watching Tigers Territory today. They said early Vegas pennant odds have Detroit 8th in the AL. Maybe they expect Skubal gone, or more likely, they see the holes on the team. Probably factoring in both. They stressed that it shows Det needs to take steps this off-season to improve. Also has me pondering throwing small wager on Detroit now.

Yeah, 8th seems really low for this group next year.  

[Tiger337]

48 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Yes this is opposite my understanding which I note could be wrong but if the computer is calling balls and strikes does it matter at all how the pitch is caught? I thought it’s either in the box or not. My assumption was catchers and framing well be less valuable. 

That is my understanding as well.  Batters are going to challenge called strikes that they believe were out of the zone.  It's likely that some of those pitchers were framed.  Pitchers/Catchers will challenge called balls that they believe were in the zone.  Those were pitches that were not helped framing.  There may be some unitended consequence which I'm not thinking about, but it seems likeframing would become less valuable.   

[Tiger337]

18 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Yeah, 8th seems really low for this group next year.  

I don't know if it's REALLY low, but it's on the low side.  I could easily see them finishing 7th behind Tor, NY, Bos, Cle, Sea, Hou.  I guess another team like kansas City could sneak in there.