Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said: Just as a hint: Right now: Biden has 53,744 votes in Utah. Trump has 42,580 The swing vote...? Haley has 31,384 That was like 2016. Hillary and McMullin had more votes than Trump. I don't see it unless there is a 3rd party disruptor like McMullin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 The state I'm waiting for to flip is Texas. Once that happens, it's game over for Republicans in a presidential race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: The state I'm waiting for to flip is Texas. Once that happens, it's game over for Republicans in a presidential race. I'm not optimistic. Oil is still huge in Tx and only gets more politically desperate with each EV sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) For every Texan that flips blue there’s someone red who moved in from California to take their place. Edited March 6 by Hongbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: I'm not optimistic. Oil is still huge in Tx and only gets more politically desperate with each EV sold. Biden got it down to R+6. It's demographics are nearly identical to California which is nearly D+30. The issues are white are way more conservative in Texas than California and even Hispanics are more conservative. The suburbs in Texas are starting to blue with more college educated whites and Hispanics continue to move to the state. Voter suppression also works in Texas. Had minorities voted at the same rate as whites in Texas, it would be blue. It's going to be a tough nut to crack. In some ways it reminds me of Minnesota. Minnesota always seems to be there for the taking for Republicans but it always finishes in the high single digits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Haley suspends. How long til she endorses? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Just now, Hongbit said: For every Texan that flips blue there’s someone red who moved in from California to take their place. It's not all Republicans leaving California for Texas. A lot of Democrats from California are moving to Texas particularly Austin. Austin is becoming a new San Francisco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 16 hours ago, chasfh said: I don't think it's stupid or silly, given the circumstances. It's meant to disarm Trump. I just hope Biden doesn't overextend somehow. Agreed, my 'stupid or silly' comment was directed at the circumstances, not Biden. It's ridiculous that we're at a point where being 'stupid or silly' is actually sound advice...yet here we are. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Right, so the state stays red... in a normal year. I believe their Trump-hate is pretty crazy high also though, because they are Mormon. So this year, and this year only, the state goes blue and Biden wins there. Everything else in the state stays red... So I'm just calling this as a one-off. Example of the crazy level for Mormons. My Niece and Nephews had to qualify at a 100 yard range with a rifle at 10 years old to move into the adolescence class of thier Mormon studues. Basically bible school. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) The other part about crosstabs is the size of them and making broad judgments. This poll, with N=800, has Trump at around 8% with black voters. NYT/Siena, with a much smaller N, had Trump at over 20%. The toplines may be right regardless in various national polls, but with subgroups,, oversamples of these groups from pollsters who know how to sample these groups (aside from this example, Univision with Hispanics as well) are inherently going to be more reliable than crosstabs from a national poll in gauging the electorate among these groups. Edited March 6 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 41 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: An entire RED state is going to flip BLUE for Biden in November because of Never-Trumpers. My prediction: Utah flips and votes Biden. Book it! Utah's Governor is an interesting dude. As one associate put it there is no one in the state that defines Utah more than Spencer Cox. The guy is the head of the National Governor's Conference. He's theme this year is Disagree Better. He's been going around the country appearing with Democratic governors on the issues. In a different political climate I could see him as a party mover and shaker. This was from about a week ago with Maryland Gov Moore https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5107207/gov-cox-gov-moore-discuss-bipartisanship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Just now, CMRivdogs said: Utah's Governor is an interesting dude. As one associate put it there is no one in the state that defines Utah more than Spencer Cox. The guy is the head of the National Governor's Conference. He's theme this year is Disagree Better. He's been going around the country appearing with Democratic governors on the issues. In a different political climate I could see him as a party mover and shaker. This was from about a week ago with Maryland Gov Moore https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5107207/gov-cox-gov-moore-discuss-bipartisanship He kind of reminds me of John Huntsman. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 14 minutes ago, smr-nj said: Haley suspends. How long til she endorses? Biden? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: lol You're seeing the difference between 2016 and 2024. Trump has purged any voice of reason from his campaign. I remember in 2016 Trump extending an olive branch to Bernie supporters by leaning into the NAFTA attacks and the DNC being rigged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 30 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: For some reason I've been bombarded with texts from candidates from NC, especially the Trump wannabe running for governor (?). I have no clue how they've gotten my information and decided I was a Republican. Probably the same fools that think I have property to sell in Tennessee The GOP (Trump wannabe) here in NC is Mark Robinson. His opponent, Josh Stein, is a Roy Cooper protege. Stein is likely harder left than Cooper. This race will be interesting as these two are polar opposites on EVERYTHING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 6 minutes ago, romad1 said: Biden? I just have a feeling that she will either: - accept the VP nod (which would involve who knows what kind of promises benefitting you know who). - endorse him (you know who…p.s.-NOT Biden😁) within a week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I can’t even…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Haley would be wise to just sit this one out and not attempt to pull a Chris Christie if she has any political ambitions in 2026. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: I can’t even…. Oh, for Pete’s sake… Democrats are NOT imploding. This reporting is ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) 3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: Haley would be wise to just sit this one out and not attempt to pull a Chris Christie if she has any political ambitions in 2026. Agreed. I also think she doesn't have a ton of incentive to go any further than her statement today either.... she gets compared to Ted Cruz a lot, but Ted was also a sitting lawmaker who was up for reelection two years after in 2018. Haley is out of the game completely at the moment and an endorsement doesn't make her anymore likely to win a primary for anything in today's GOP. Edited March 6 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 So had a conversation with a smart person at breakfast who referring back to his family in SW Kansas says that all the Trump legal trouble is helping him with the people out there. He made the comment that i'm living in a bubble if i dont' see the possible Trump win in November. Of course I see it as possible. He's telling me this to scare me. He'd as worried as anyone. I'd ask. Do we collectively MOTOWNFORUM live in a bubble about Trump's prevailing strength in the red lands beyond our surburban bastions? And, do we delude ourselves about his hidden strength in the actual places where there are voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Maybe she can be like Nancy Mace and grovel outside Trump Tower in New York? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I don't know... I think those people being referred to are already in the bag and being counted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, romad1 said: So had a conversation with a smart person at breakfast who referring back to his family in SW Kansas says that all the Trump legal trouble is helping him with the people out there. He made the comment that i'm living in a bubble if i dont' see the possible Trump win in November. Of course I see it as possible. He's telling me this to scare me. He'd as worried as anyone. I'd ask. Do we collectively MOTOWNFORUM live in a bubble about Trump's prevailing strength in the red lands beyond our surburban bastions? And, do we delude ourselves about his hidden strength in the actual places where there are voters. Well Kansas was never on the table for Democrats. It's weird how legal trouble and impeachments are always spun to help Republicans. When a Democrat is investigated over emails, it tanks the entire campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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