What makes Justyn-Henry Malloy a Worthy Asset?

[mtutiger]

12 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I doubt Harris is making any personnel decisions based on fan sentiment...

Nor should he be.... fan sentiment matters, but often what fan bases want and what is smart for the long term outlook of a ballclub don't always align.

12 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

....but it would have been a very bad look if the new administration gave a raise to a player who hit under .220 with an OPS that would be low for a utility infielder, combined with poor defense.  You could even say it would be a bit tone deaf with what is currently taking place with the economy and challenges that others are going through. 

To add to this, what kind of message or precedent does it set in future negotiations to do an 40% overpay like they would have had to do with Jeimer? Particular with a first year PBO?

Again, it's easy for us to sit on the sidelines and question the wisdom of letting him walk but the Tigers have a lot more variables to think about than any of us do when making that kind of decision.

Edited December 19, 2022 by mtutiger

[Tenacious D]

2 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

The other things (beyond Malloy and Perez) I am interested in for 2023: is Turnbull healthy and effective, is A Meadows going to provide production near pre-2022 levels and can Carpenter continue his strong 2022 play going forward. There are other things of course, but success in those cases would make for a more watchable team and some sense of moving forward on a timeline shorter than four more years of rebuild, as some have said. 

anything from Carpenter will be a pleasant surprise--the cynic in me is thinks he'll be a Brennan Boesch-type.  You might get a nice half season out of him.  Of course, he could also become another J.D. Martinez, who figures it out later, so I guess there is some hope.

I'm more excited to see the guys in the minors and who takes a next step.  Players in this category for me include Madden, Dylan Smith, Flores, Olsen, Baby Meadows, Wenceel, Pacheco, Jung, Peyton Graham, Crouch, Christian Santana, Campos and the hyphenated-one.

[Jim Cowan]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

anything from Carpenter will be a pleasant surprise--the cynic in me is thinks he'll be a Brennan Boesch-type.  You might get a nice half season out of him.  Of course, he could also become another J.D. Martinez, who figures it out later, so I guess there is some hope.

I'm more excited to see the guys in the minors and who takes a next step.  Players in this category for me include Madden, Dylan Smith, Flores, Olsen, Baby Meadows, Wenceel, Pacheco, Jung, Peyton Graham, Crouch, Christian Santana, Campos and the hyphenated-one.

I would add Keith to your list, he looks like a hitter but do you have to hide his glove somewhere?

[Dan Gilmore]

No disagreement there, I was more focusing on the MLB team for this year.

[Tenacious D]

2 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I would add Keith to your list, he looks like a hitter but do you have to hide his glove somewhere?

yes--I was riffing off the top of my head, but he's a key player who might be counted upon for 2024.  I'd add Jobe to the list, too.

[Longgone]

15 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I would add Keith to your list, he looks like a hitter but do you have to hide his glove somewhere?

Might be a hell of an outfielder or 1b, also he's young, third is still a possibility, but he'll have to keep the weight down.

He was 250 in the fall league, which led to some stiffness around the bag.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Longgone

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

As 337 implied, it’s false to assume anything that is being done with the money that is saved, whether it would be used to pay another player or simply pocketed by the owner. In the end, if Jeimer were to fulfill the expectations of his detractors by coming back and putting up, say, 0 WAR in 2023, is it really better for the fan—is the team really better—if he gives us 0 WAR for $5 million than if he gives us 0 WAR for $7 million? If 0 WAR is his top end at age 29, what difference does it make? And even if we think 1 WAR is his top end, why would we want him here for any price? 

that's one way to look at it, but there is also opportunity cost to every decision made that doesn't move the org forward. That value prop is always unknown up front - it's only justified (if it ultimately is) in retrospect when what they do with the opportunity transpires. If this turns out like Polanco and they don't come close to replacing half of Candelario's production, it's going to be the 1st tick on the red side of the ledger for the Harris regime. But if he manages to put a better team out there the move will be justified. It's perfectly appropriate to speculate on whether we individually think it was a good move or not based on how we guess it's going to end up, but that's all it can be until it plays out. It's not possible to make the definitive judgment so far. 

When I watch the moves Yzerman has made with the Wings, a lot of them have seemed pretty underwhelming and questionable at the time, yet somehow is he is putting a much better team on the ice (which unfortunately has now been decimated with injuries....but that's another story).  So we have to hope Harris has that same touch, but hope is all we have until he produces, or doesn't.

Edited December 19, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

8 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Might be a hell of an outfielder or 1b, also he's young, third is still a possibility, but he'll have to keep the weight down.

He was 250 in the fall league.

I think they would like him at either 3B or 2B.  Not sure he has the wheels to cover LF in Comerica, but would probably be Eric Haase-passable, if necessary. Remember that he was a pitcher in HS and supposedly has a very strong arm, which would play at 3B if he can pick it.

[chasfh]

46 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's also false to assume anything isn't being done with the money that is saved.

You might think you're setting me straight, but you've actually agreeing with part of what you quoted.

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You might think you're setting me straight, but you've actually agreeing with part of what you quoted.

You're right, my bad.

[mtutiger]

Stavenhagen on his podcast today sounds pretty bullish on Malloy.... saying things like we might be seeing him sooner rather than later and that a stopgap Brian Anderson type with him waiting in the wings might not be the worst thing in the world.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Jim Cowan said:

I'm not Harris, I'm a fan.  I'm against overpaying Candelario by 40% because within a fixed budget it weakens the team.  And Harris isn't there to save money for the owner, I don't know where that is coming from.

How do you know that Harris is there to spend to the budget and not try to save money for the owner where he can? I don't think any of us knows that. Well, maybe Edman does. But I sure don't, and my guess is you don't, either.

Hypothetical: Do you think it weakens the team to pay Jeimer $7 million within a payroll of $143 million dollars, but it doesn't to pay Jeimer $5 million within a payroll of $141 million?

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

How do you know that Harris is there to spend to the budget and not try to save money for the owner where he can?

Why not both?

You can be there to "spend the budget" while also not paying dudes money that they aren't worth on the open market.

[chasfh]

55 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I doubt Harris is making any personnel decisions based on fan sentiment, but it would have been a very bad look if the new administration gave a raise to a player who hit under .220 with an OPS that would be low for a utility infielder, combined with poor defense.  You could even say it would be a bit tone deaf with what is currently taking place with the economy and challenges that others are going through. 

I doubt Harris is making any personnel decisions based on the economy and challenges that others are going through, either.

Personally, I think it's a bad look that the new administration is apparently planning to give something like a 4x to 5x raise to a relief pitcher who went 2-11 last season with a 5 BB/9 rate and a steadily declining strikeout rate.

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

How do you know that Harris is there to spend to the budget and not try to save money for the owner where he can? I don't think any of us knows that. Well, maybe Edman does. But I sure don't, and my guess is you don't, either.

Hypothetical: Do you think it weakens the team to pay Jeimer $7 million within a payroll of $143 million dollars, but it doesn't to pay Jeimer $5 million within a payroll of $141 million?

Of course it will look bad if they don't end up spending the money, but even that is not definitive. Lets say for the sake of argument that they have reserved 'x' dollars into a number of pots where one is the kitty to chase a top FA. If you give 3M more to JC, you've reduced what you can offer your FA. Then your FA signs somewhere else anyway despite your best offer. You come off looking bad with an underspent budget though you had an expansive plan. Of course, them is the breaks, you get paid the big bucks to take the heat when things don't come up roses. Harris (and Ilitch!) will rightfully get roasted here if the Tigers end up with a reduced payroll and a bad team.

Edited December 19, 2022 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

that's one way to look at it, but there is also opportunity cost to every decision made that doesn't move the org forward. That value prop is always unknown up front - it's only justified (if it ultimately is) in retrospect when what they do with the opportunity transpires. If this turns out like Polanco and they don't come close to replacing half of Candelario's production, it's going to be the 1st tick on the red side of the ledger for the Harris regime. But if he manages to put a better team out there the move will be justified. It's perfectly appropriate to speculate on whether we individually think it was a good move or not based on how we guess it's going to end up, but that's all it can be until it plays out. It's not possible to make the definitive judgment so far. 

When I watch the moves Yzerman has made with the Wings, a lot of them have seemed pretty underwhelming and questionable at the time, yet somehow is he is putting a much better team on the ice (which unfortunately has now been decimated with injuries....but that's another story).  So we have to hope Harris has that same touch, but hope is all we have until he produces, or doesn't.

I will agree that letting Jeimer go was the right move if we get third baseman(s) who provide better prodcution at third base than Jeimer does for Washington this year.

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Why not both?

You can be there to "spend the budget" while also not paying dudes money that they aren't worth on the open market.

Agreed as posted, although the question at hand was, more narrowly, whether Harris's charge is to spend right up to the owner's budget, or whether it is to save the owner money and come in under budget. None of us know the answer to this, so declaring as much, either way, is presumptuous.

Edited December 19, 2022 by chasfh

[chasfh]

42 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I think they would like him at either 3B or 2B.  Not sure he has the wheels to cover LF in Comerica, but would probably be Eric Haase-passable, if necessary. Remember that he was a pitcher in HS and supposedly has a very strong arm, which would play at 3B if he can pick it.

If Colt Keith can rake like crazy, I think we could justify him at 2B even if he has one of the worst gloves in the league there. Having a terrible glove didn't stop Derek Jeter from having a Hall of Fame career as a shortstop.

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Agreed as posted, although the question at hand was, more narrowly, whether Harris's charge is to spend right up to the owner's budget, or whether it is to save the owner money and come in under budget. None of us know the answer to this, so declaring as much, either way, is presumptuous.

Harris' own words suggested that he didn't feel money/budget was an issue when he took the job, that he would be given the resources that he needed, and I will take him at his word on that until there's some indication otherwise.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Harris' own words suggested that he didn't feel money/budget was an issue when he took the job, that he would be given the resources that he needed, and I will take him at his word on that until there's some indication otherwise.

I will take him at his word as well, because we have to give the new guy coming in the benefit of belief, although TBF, he would never have publicly said anything to the contrary, either.

[Tigermojo]

Candy couldn't get the job done when it was in his best interest for his future earnings to play his absolute best. He couldn't do it all season. There was something wrong and we don't know what it was. Maybe the Tigers' do but we don't.

For a player to "bounce back" to previous performance levels, there probably needs to be a reason identified for poor performance and a plan to improve back to form.

As far as we know the problem has not been fixed so why give him arbitration when he didn't earn it. Baseball is a very competitive sport. There's always someone ready for an opportunity. We might not know who the third baseman is until the end of spring training and we won't know the results until the end of next season.

Candy wasn't going to be here long term anyway. I'd rather try to find a long term solution than waste time on an overpriced stop gap.

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I will take him at his word as well, because we have to give the new guy coming in the benefit of belief, although TBF, he would never have publicly said anything to the contrary, either.

TBF, he probably wouldn't have had the opportunity to say anything to the contrary because he would have never taken the job if he felt that he didn't feel that he would have the resources needed to succeed with this organization.

Edited December 19, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

TBF, he probably wouldn't have had the opportunity to say anything to the contrary because he would have never taken the job if he felt that he couldn't succeed with this organization.

I agree. I've never taken a job I felt i couldn't succeed at, either.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

... To add to this, what kind of message or precedent does it set in future negotiations to do an 40% overpay like they would have had to do with Jeimer? ...

Teams do this all the time.

Teams are always taking risks on recovery projects, injury or otherwise.

Two things: (1) We just gave Boyd $10 mill and he only pitched 13 innings last year. Please calculate the % overpay we just did on this deal, I'll be interested in that number. (2) Teams are NOT paying Candy based on 2022 numbers. (whether that was us or Washington). As Tenacious eludes to:

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

... but it would have been a very bad look if the new administration gave a raise to a player who hit under .220 with an OPS that would be low for a utility infielder, combined with poor defense...

He is being paid on the RISK that he can get back to 2021 numbers or something closely approximating that. You don't pay $5 mill for someone who gives you 0 or negative WAR.

 

I contend that the MAIN reason Harris let Candy go non-tendered was that he didn't want to take the RISK that Candy could get back to 2021 numbers or not, at $7 mill (but would do so at $5 mill so I guess that is the other factor... call that "risk tolerance factor" ?), and instead decided he would take the RISK that he could fill that position using alternate methods and get the same expected production (2.5-ish WAR?) from other players, regardless of the cost. IE If they give $7 mill to Evan Longoria as a stopgap (who is 37 y.o. and has played about a half, or less, of the games in each of the past  2 years...) then Harris has simply decided that paying Longoria $7 mill instead of Candy $7 mill for 2023 is the better RISK.

 

 

[1984Echoes]

24 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Candy couldn't get the job done when it was in his best interest for his future earnings to play his absolute best. He couldn't do it all season. There was something wrong and we don't know what it was. Maybe the Tigers' do but we don't.

For a player to "bounce back" to previous performance levels, there probably needs to be a reason identified for poor performance and a plan to improve back to form.

As far as we know the problem has not been fixed so why give him arbitration when he didn't earn it. Baseball is a very competitive sport. There's always someone ready for an opportunity. We might not know who the third baseman is until the end of spring training and we won't know the results until the end of next season.

Candy wasn't going to be here long term anyway. I'd rather try to find a long term solution than waste time on an overpriced stop gap.

Eloquently stated and the "MAIN" reason I believe Harris moved on.

Willing to take the risk he might get back on track at $5 mill but not willing to go above that.