Leaderboard

I think there are some things about Lange that might make his case a little different from the typical Tigers reliever who is good in some small samples only to be terrible in others. For one thing, his B-Ref peripherals are stronger this year. Yes, he was soft in Toledo last year and there was some mirage to his decent stats last year, but his FIP is way down and his strikeout rate his ticked up. On Fangraphs we see his SIERA is lower and swinging strike rate is up, which tracks with his lower FIP. Yesterday he hurt his outcome stats a bit with two walks, but on the other hand, it was his longest outing of the year by far: 1-2/3 innings, nine batters faced, 31 pitches. He cruised through the first inning with three outs on 12 pitches, but then there were the two walks at the end, and if it was anyone batting but terrible-no good-doesn’t-know-what-he’s-doing-lately Joey Gallo, it might have been three walks, who knows. Point is, we may be learning that Lange is not a 30-pitch guy, which may actually strengthen the argument to try him as closer at some point. His Statcast process peripherals, though, are much better than even his improved peripherals: Ground ball rate, line drive rate, weak contact, solid hits, barrels—almost doesn’t matter what you look at, Lange is way better this year than last year. Guys can make improvements in the offseason that can lead to these kinds of improvements. But the thing I like best about Lange is his eye-popping Statcast card: Like, wow. That is just a sea of red. The main thing he has to fix is that walk rate, but if he can bring that in even to 50%, this is the card of an elite late-inning reliever. And it’s not as though the Tigers are swimming in relievers with Statcast cards that look like that: Basically Fulmer, who’s going to bolt this offseason and get good and paid, and Lange, who we have for cheap through 2027 if we want him. Sure, in a world where anything is possible, it’s possible that Lange’s card is a mirage and he’ll be all blue by the end of the year and into next. I’d be willing to bet against that happening, especially under the Fetter regime. I’d hate to see one of the few decent young relievers we’ve had passing through this system just go away, the same way Chad Green and Luis Cessa and Jose Alvarez and Corey Knebel did. And so far this year, Lange looks better than all of them. People can conclude that all relievers are basically random widgets, and root for an Alex Lange trade for some similarly-talented prospect if they want to. But me, I’m gonna root against that. I like what I see from this guy, and unless he has an abject collapse starting right around now, I’m gonna wanna see a lot more. EDIT: Jose Alvarez, not Jose Alvarado

I’d prefer to not let Al make any more trades.

Baseball?

Cannabis Appreciation Day added to the promotional calendar at Comerica. It would have to be a game with a 4:20 start time and Nachos would be half priced.

The January 6th hearings are starting.

Competent baseball

It makes sense. Rasheed and Ham were there the last time the Lakers had an aging super team come up short.

My wish is the same as always and that is to compete. Put the best defensive team available that day on the field and try to win. It's ok to lose but no reason to be embarrassed with keystone cops defense. We don't hit enough to give away bases or runs.

we finally got a kid in a trade who is performing well, he's under contract for cheap for a while, why would we trade him? and for what? a guy who might turn into him in three years? come on, were not the pirates.

To win games and be entertaining. Find out more about who may be part of the team going forward. Find out more about a few MiLB players that may be close (not all have to be 20 yrs old, some could be AAAA types even). To further understand and accept that depth is more important than ever before in the modern game and that injuries are always a larger part now for every team (hopefully not at the current rate here in Detroit). (note: On that note, and I may just start a thread on this at a later date: Perhaps gone are the days, from here on end, of the following: SP winning 225 games during a career. Hitters with 500 HRs and 3000 hits. Teams with lineups featuring 7 starting players that start 150 games a year and 3 SPs throwing 200 innings during the same year, and more.) To maybe acquire a 'potential' MLB ready starting player type from some of the RP depth at the trade deadline. Teams are always looking, and pay big, for RP at that time. Who knows, I still feel if this teams gets healthier, and plays to their capabilities - there still may be more exciting baseball in Motown 'this' season! Good day all 🙂

I would feel good about the season if guys were gonna have in the future finish out the year strong. Not just young guys like Tork,Greene, Tarik etc. but guys like Meadows and Baez as well. If they get on track and we win at a decent enough clip I will feel alot better going into next season.

I just wanted to make sure the opposing view was represented here. The OT definately has things I do not understand or pretend to. But I do understand this: Jesus was asked, which commandment is most important and Jesus replied "Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength. The second is this - Love your neighbor as yourself. There is no commandment greater than these.” I am far from a good Christian but I do try every day to be a better person. All walks of life have been welcomed into my home and cared for, always will be (except Ohio State fans).

Lee is incorrect, it is 100% Biblical. Romans 1:26-27 (NT), Leviticus 18:22 (OT), 1 Corinthians 6:9-10 (NT). Christians are taught not to support the sin, but they are instructed to 100% love the sinner (which is all of us).

Jesus never said anything about homosexuality or LGBTQ (or whatever the acronym is now). I don't think people were even aware of different sexual identities back then. Jesus preached kindness and treating all people with respect. You can argue about whether sexual identity should be taught in school and at what age, but it's not Christian to marginalize people who are different from you. If Jason Adam thinks he is superior to other people based on his identity that makles him a bigot.

I say it's the wrong question. I'd actually take slightly different approach on this one and put it as "there is no such thing as the right sample size for most relief pitchers" So in baseball I would say you have three kinds of variations you have to measure. The first are things that have relatively small random inputs are almost fully controlled by the player and they stabilize quickly - K rate for a hitter is good example. 50-100 AB is all you need to predict pretty accurately what a hitter's K rate for his next 100 AB is going to be and probably his career. Then you widen the view and you get things like BA or OPS, where there are huge random inputs between how well the batter strikes the ball and the outcomes, they take a lot longer to get predictive - probably more than a season - some say ~1000 AB. So those are differences in how the stats behave created by the game process itself. But then you have the whole different problem of the player changing. Now most pros are relatively consistent, if they weren't they wouldn't have made the majors, but even there you get major and micro injury and other weird stuff going on with the person. Those effects defy statistical measure because they are really changing the thing you are measuring - which can basically invalidate all your prior samples and make you start over measuring the players new state. (like injured Cabrera vs healthy Cabrera - measuring one does not predict the other). Again, most players in the pros are constant enough in their persons for statistical measure to work reasonably well on them. But I would say this is generally not very true for relief pitchers. These are guys (mostly) like Chafin's tee shirt says - are failed starters. They failed as starters because they didn't have enough 'reserve' pitching ability to survive throwing a lot of pitches consistently, which probably means they are working right at the edge of a talent cliff where the downside is not good enough to pitch in the majors. (e.g. if you have 3 or 4 pitches and can't control one on a day you may get by, if you have only 2 and you lose the feel for one you are probably toast....) For these guys a tiny physical fault, the slightest shift in their mental or neurological state, may have them crossing that line between good and bad - esp from season to season. So the problem isn't in the statistics, it's in the persons. You can't take meaningful long term predictive statistics on a thing that is changing no matter the sample size. In a case like that the only statistical sampling worth anything is that done at a time scale shorter than the person is likely to change over, and then the predictive value is limited to that same short time frame, and since relief pitchers don't pitch a lot you do hit real small sample size effects there as well. So in 20 innings of relief work we may have some reasonable idea what Soto is likely to do tomorrow, or maybe for the next 20 IP(walk rate, whiff rate, velo), but 3 months from now or next year? Forget it. Statistics can't help you when there it something changing with the player, and there probably will be with a Soto or Jimenez. The consistent relievers you can do statistical projection with are the outliers of the species. But the problem is not in the statistics one way or the other, it's in the players.

I see you got the latest MAGA software download over the weekend.

I want the Tigers to get healthy and win as many games as they can. It may be a development year, but they have enough talent and potential talent in a weak division to at least get up to .500. Realistically, I projected them as .500 team going into the season and I still believe they can do that. They need to get healthy though.

Lange definitely looks good but it's such a small sample it's hard to know how much stock we should put into it at this point, hell that would hold true even if he looks like this all year. There's just a small percentage of relievers that are consistently good year in and year out that the likelihood of him being one of those rare guys is pretty small. It's possible which is why you wouldn't just give him away but if for some reason somebody offers you a good prospect package I probably wouldn't turn it down. Of course for the reasons I stated at the beginning are the reasons that no team would likely do that but hey you never know what is going through certain team's heads.

Didn’t we get Lange himself as a prospect in exchange for a veteran dump? That was just three years ago. So if we’re going to turn around and dump Lange for yet another prospect, when he himself is just one year removed from prospect status, then exactly what the hell are we doing here??

Every reliever should be on the block if the Tigers can get a decent prospect. They need as many lottery tickets as possible.

for all the good their 'exposure' did, both are still in office....

So I started playing a couple years ago and now have a guitar collection that far exceeds my talent. I prefer acoustic over electric. Though I have my eye on a Gibson SG. Divorce is surely in my future.

Hey if they banned beer ads we never would have gotten this. 😂

Ok... I'm on board with that. But I still want to move Grant as a move for the future and pick up a second prospect even if it's in the 12-16 range... I mean #7 pick is better but I'll take what I can get...

I probably rank him higher than most here. I view him as a legit 2nd option on a contending team. A possible 20 and 10 type player. On defense, he is never going to be a lock down type guy. He will never make all defense. Worst case scenario, he is a neutral defender and I feel he eventually is a plus defender. Very high BBIQ and will be a better team defender than man defender. Most importantly, and why Paolo and Chet are not on my list, Murray can easily stay on the floor in the playoffs. On offense he is a two level scorer. Really good at the rim to about 10-12 feet out, especially along the baseline. Excellent 3PT shooter (39.8% on the season. 45% in Big Ten play) for his second zone. Not good at all in the 15-20 foot range. One hope is in college you see a lot more defenders in that area. So maybe the NBA spacing will help in that area. But honestly, I hate that shot anyway so not a huge deal if he struggles there. Where I really get excited about him is in the PnR with Cade. Murray is a legit threat to catch a lob and and even bigger threat at the 3PT line. How many PF's in the league can do both of those things? He is the perfect modern day big for the playoffs. I think him and Cade will play off each other really well.

yes....as long as the best player in the league is your first! 😀

I know everyone here hates Bill Maher, and he certainly has been galloping around on his pet hobby horses for some time now, but this might help explain why.