The first polls are relatively meaningless and mainly for hype purposes to get people talking about the playoff.
Oregon will not be in the conversation. They are a fraud that is there solely on one early season win. Injuries have hurt but the transfer QB they brought in has underachieved. They have really struggled against some average teams. I don’t see any way they make through their schedule without another loss and I think they lose 2.
Sadly, MSU is probably a placeholder too. I think they lose 2 of the remaining games starting this weekend. Even with just a loss they will need huge help.
Bama is in an interesting spot. They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way but will need to beat Georgia in the SEC championship to stay in. I don’t see a 2 loss team making it in at this point even if it’s Bama.
Dont sleep on either Baylor or Ok State stepping up and beating OU. I think the last team standing from this B12 group will get a spot.
The cards should fall nicely for an undefeated Cincy to be in it. If they falter somehow there could be a shot for a 1 loss ND team to sneak in but that would make an interesting decision between them and a 1 loss Cincy team that beat them in South Bend. I’m not either have a strong enough schedule to get in with 1 loss without some major upsets happening in other places.
If I had to guess now I’d pick Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Baylor to be in the final 4.