04/26/2023 1:40pm EDT Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers

[kdog]

18 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

But the MLB baseball draft is a crapshoot. I remember when Mize, Manning, Greene and Torkelson were drafted, they were considered best picks on the board. Yes, some players drafted later turned out to be really good, right now. Right now, Greene is slumping (as every player does at some point). And Tork is smoking the ball. When those start missing fielders, his numbers will look better. And if these guys don't start producing, Harris may decide to cut bait and bring in his own picks. After all, HE didn't draft these guys. We'll see who Harris picks with the 3rd pick this season.

Which is why you try to acquire talent outside of the draft(trades, free agency, international kids).

[SoCalTiger]

We have to wait until year end to evaluate Greene and Tork. I think they are major league players and hopefully stars. For me I would buy more Greene stock than Torkelson but it’s early for them but late for the Franchise which is a problem for us. 

[mtutiger]

29 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

He does consistently look overmatched.

Not that it would be for Malloy, more likely Kreidler, but one could see him being sent down in the next few days. Just hasn't done much

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

We have to wait until year end to evaluate Greene and Tork. I think they are major league players and hopefully stars. For me I would buy more Greene stock than Torkelson but it’s early for them but late for the Franchise which is a problem for us. 

I won't beat a horse dead, but I'll just say that AJ's interview on 97.1 last week provides a pretty good summation of how we should approach Tork and Greene.

But when fans are involved, that's easier said than done.

[mtutiger]

On another note, two weeks ago, people wanted to shoot Scott Harris into the sun for presumably not kicking the tires on Michael Fulmer.

Today? If Michael Fulmer were in this bullpen, he would have by far the highest ERA of anyone currently in there.

Interesting how things change.

Edited April 27, 2023 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

40 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

We have to wait until year end to evaluate Greene and Tork. I think they are major league players and hopefully stars. For me I would buy more Greene stock than Torkelson but it’s early for them but late for the Franchise which is a problem for us. 

For a little perspective: Mike Trout is a HOF player and he got to the majors with 1300 MiLB PA under his belt, and it was another 200 PA with an offseason in LA before his BA hit 300.  Neither Greene nor Torkelson has 1400 total (MiLB + MBL) professional PA yet and while we like them both no-one is under any illusions they likely HOFers.

Edited April 27, 2023 by gehringer_2

[tiger2022]

Also for perspective, Shawn Abner, the #1 pick in the 1984 draft who had quite a bit of success in the minors, had roughly 1800 PA before he made the majors at the age of 21.  He ended up with a .227 BA, .591 OPS, and 11 home runs.  He was a part time player in the majors until the age of 26. 

You can find examples of all sorts of guys who were in similar situations as Greene and Torkelson who finished with all levels of types of careers from Trout to Abner and everywhere in between (Gregg Jefferies was similar).  You can't draw any conclusions from it because they are all different people who develop differently.

Torkelson probably could have used last season in AAA, and I think he along with Greene might benefit from spending some time in Toledo this season to work on some things without the pressure of being in the majors.

Edited April 27, 2023 by tiger2022

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, tiger2022 said:

Also for perspective, Shawn Abner, the #1 pick in the 1984 draft who had quite a bit of success in the minors, had roughly 1800 PA before he made the majors at the age of 21.  He ended up with a .227 BA, .591 OPS, and 11 home runs.  He was a part time player in the majors until the age of 26. 

You can find examples of all sorts of guys who were in similar situations as Greene and Torkelson who finished with all levels of types of careers from Trout to Abner and everywhere in between (Gregg Jefferies was similar).  You can't draw any conclusions from it because they are all different people who develop differently.

Torkelson probably could have used last season in AAA, and I think he along with Greene might benefit from spending some time in Toledo this season to work on some things without the pressure of being in the majors.

I think all you can do is notice whether they are checking off the boxes they need to get to where they need to be. Tork struggled to barrel up hittable pitches for most of last season. He has overcome that in spades so far this year. You can't look at that kind of progress and be depressed about it. Yes, he can probably use a little adjustment to his swing plane - but you don't mess with a guy too much just as his bat to ball skill is starting to come around. Let it marinate for awhile and see if the adjustment doesn't just come by itself as his success and comfort level achieving contact grow.

To me Greene is a little more complex. His heat maps show a strong bias to low pitches. To my naked eye that matches the fact that his swing plane is deeply inclined i.e -  like a golf swing. Since he's swinging up, he can't get the bat into the hitting zone at the top of the zone very well, and MLB is getting to be a high pitch/strike league. He has plenty of reaction speed and bat speed and reasonable pitch recognition, but I think he will eventually have to alter his swing and/or setup to improve his plate coverage up and away.

Edited April 27, 2023 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

To me Greene is a little more complex. His heat maps show a strong bias to low pitches. To my naked eye that matches the fact that his swing plane is deeply inclined i.e -  like a golf swing. Since he's swinging up, he can't get the bat into the hitting zone at the top of the zone very well, and MLB is getting to be a high pitch/strike league. He has plenty of reaction speed and bat speed and reasonable pitch recognition, but I think he will eventually have to alter his swing and/or setup to improve his plate coverage up and away.

LOL - right on cue - from Beck this morining:

Quote

“Maybe a week or two weeks ago, there were times when I was worried about elevating the ball, and I was trying to deal with my body,” Greene said Tuesday, contorting his body to demonstrate swinging wildly upward like the old swinging Tiger logo of the 1960s.

“I was really tilting and trying to swing up and get it in the air, and that's when I was really missing balls. 

https://www.mlb.com/tigers/news/riley-greene-making-adjustments-at-mlb-level-for-tigers

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

But the MLB baseball draft is a crapshoot. I remember when Mize, Manning, Greene and Torkelson were drafted, they were considered best picks on the board. Yes, some players drafted later turned out to be really good, right now. Right now, Greene is slumping (as every player does at some point). And Tork is smoking the ball. When those start missing fielders, his numbers will look better. And if these guys don't start producing, Harris may decide to cut bait and bring in his own picks. After all, HE didn't draft these guys. We'll see who Harris picks with the 3rd pick this season.

I too am interested in seeing how Harris drafts with the third pick, but I am also very interested in seeing how he drafts from the second round on.

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I too am interested in seeing how Harris drafts with the third pick, but I am also very interested in seeing how he drafts from the second round on.

My point being, with the 3rd pick, there will be a player everyone agrees should be the 3rd player taken. If that player never works out, we can blame Harris? Just like we blame Avila for Torkelson, Greene, Mize and Manning? Those guys were expected to go when they did. Injuries and ineffectiveness aren't something that can be predicted. The MLB draft is a crapshoot, many teams first round picks never make it to the show.

Or are you saying a GM can be judged by his later draft picks? I have to agree with that. It's the job of the GM to get the right scouts in the right place to find talent. And it's also the job of the GM to have the right coaches to develop the talent.

[alex]

9 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

...Or are you saying a GM can be judged by his later draft picks? I have to agree with that. It's the job of the GM to get the right scouts in the right place to find talent. And it's also the job of the GM to have the right coaches to develop the talent.

Well put, all of this makes good sense and brings about organizational 'talent' !

[oblong]

26 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

My point being, with the 3rd pick, there will be a player everyone agrees should be the 3rd player taken. If that player never works out, we can blame Harris? Just like we blame Avila for Torkelson, Greene, Mize and Manning? Those guys were expected to go when they did. Injuries and ineffectiveness aren't something that can be predicted. The MLB draft is a crapshoot, many teams first round picks never make it to the show.

Or are you saying a GM can be judged by his later draft picks? I have to agree with that. It's the job of the GM to get the right scouts in the right place to find talent. And it's also the job of the GM to have the right coaches to develop the talent.

the draft is a crapshoot after the first few picks but development is not.  Not every quality ML player was a first round pick.  Development is as much of a function of a good organization as picking players.   Some orgs have consistently been good at it.  That's where Harris has to make his impact.  I firmly believe that players arent destined to be good or bad on draft day.

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, oblong said:

the draft is a crapshoot after the first few picks but development is not.  Not every quality ML player was a first round pick.  Development is as much of a function of a good organization as picking players.   Some orgs have consistently been good at it.  That's where Harris has to make his impact.  I firmly believe that players arent destined to be good or bad on draft day.

This is exactly right.... fans wring their hands (understandably) about Tigers 1st Round Picks specifically dating back to when Avila first started, both in terms of how they have panned out and in terms of who was selected (ie. Jackson Jobe).  But it only tells part of the story.

But the bigger, more fundamental problem comes down to the fact that they haven't found much past the first round either.... the Cleveland Guardians are an excellent example of an organization that hasn't had much success picking in the first round yet has had success identifying and developing ML talent; you have to go back to Triston McKenzie in 2015 to find a player who has had success up to this point in the major leagues. But they have also found and developed talent past Round 1 that has come to the big leagues and performed.... the Tigers have not.

Hopefully Harris along with the other PD/scouting hires help change that culture.

Edited April 27, 2023 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, oblong said:

the draft is a crapshoot after the first few picks

It is even at the top. The problem in baseball is always small sample size - a guy can have a little hiccup and who knows if it's short term thing or something real. I look at what happened with Brady Singer. Brady was the consensus number one 2018 pick 10min after the 2017 draft was over,  but then struggled a little the following year and his stock dropped all the way to 18th in his draft, passed over by acclimation by Casey Mize among others. But guess what - it looks like Brady should have stayed higher in that draft. If Kelenic's hot start this season is real he will exceed Brady's value in a year or two but right now Singer is the leader in the clubhouse for WAR from that draft and there were growing questions about Mize's prospects as a pro even before he went down with TJ. And of course, lest we forget - Mark Appel.

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

It is even at the top. The problem in baseball is always small sample size - a guy can have a little hiccup and who knows if it's short term thing or something real. I look at what happened with Brady Singer. Brady was the consensus number one 2018 pick 10min after the 2017 draft was over,  but then struggled a little the following year and his stock dropped all the way to 18th in his draft, passed over by acclimation by Casey Mize among others. But guess what - it looks like Brady should have stayed higher in that draft. If Kelenic's hot start this season is real he will exceed Brady's value in a year or two but right now Singer is the leader in the clubhouse for WAR from that draft and there were growing questions about Mize's prospects as a pro even before he went down with TJ. And of course, lest we forget - Mark Appel.

Should be noted that Brady Singer has been pretty awful this year, fwiw.

[RandyMarsh]

Iirc Singer was still mocked to go 1 by alot of people up until around SEC tourney time when Mize was dominating and Singer was losing velo and getting hit around.

I vaguely remember some of the pundits even being surprised that KC took him as high as they did as they thought something serious was wrong with him. 

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Iirc Singer was still mocked to go 1 by alot of people up until around SEC tourney time when Mize was dominating and Singer was losing velo and getting hit around.

I vaguely remember some of the pundits even being surprised that KC took him as high as they did as they thought something serious was wrong with him. 

I was wrong, he's always been a SP.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Sports_Freak