2024 NFL Draft

[MichiganCardinal]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Is there any player, realistically speaking, if the Lions took you'd be underwhelmed or disappointed by in the first round?

I'd be pretty meh about any of the IOLmen. I trust Holmes completely, so I wouldn't be upset, but I just don't see any of the Day 1 guards or centers (JPJ, Fautanu, Fuaga) being head and shoulders above the Day 2 guards and centers (Zinter, Barton, Frazier, Beebe, Robinson, etc.).

[Hongbit]

On 4/19/2024 at 11:02 AM, NYLion said:

Apparently there's issues with his work ethic and that he's not a willing tackler. If true and it's a big IF because draft rumors are usually grains of salt, there's zero chance that he's on the Lions board at all. Holmes is unpredictable in terms of his draft board vs. the consensus and trade ups/downs but in terms of the type of player he likes, he's very predictable. If the player doesn't love and breathe football and doesn't have the necessary grit, he will not be taken by the Detroit Lions. 

 

On 4/19/2024 at 11:12 AM, 1984Echoes said:

On Kool-Aid:

I keep saying this...

Are there any other sources on this outside of Charlie Campbell from Walterfootball? 

 

[MichiganCardinal]

6 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

 

Are there any other sources on this outside of Charlie Campbell from Walterfootball? 

 

I haven't looked, but FWIW Charlie Campbell's write-up went beyond that of a simple rumor and came with a direct quote from an NFC executive:

Quote

NFL Hot Press: Teams Don’t See Top-10 Talent in Kool-Aid McKinstry

Charlie Campbell, 5 months ago

Under Nick Saban, the Alabama Crimson Tide program have been a factory for NFL defensive back talent, with a number of cornerbacks going high in the first round of NFL drafts. Given that tradition, many in the media have projected junior cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry to be a top-10 pick next April in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, of the NFL sources from seven different teams who spoke with WalterFootball.com, none of them had McKinstry projected as a high first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. All of them said they thought he would be a late first-round or early second-round pick instead.

At 6-foot-1, 195 pounds, McKinstry has good size for the NFL, and he has played a lot over the past three seasons. Sources note that McKinstry is big, has speed, is good in press-man coverage, but he is also rigid and does not have good stop-start quickness or explosion. Hence, McKinstry faces coverage limitations for the NFL. None of the team sources said they believed that McKinstry has the skill set of other recent top-10 cornerbacks like Devon Witherspoon, Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr. or Jaycee Horn.

One NFC director of college scouting told WalterFootball.com

“He is way overhyped and isn’t a top flight athlete …. He knows how to play, but isn’t freaky in any way. His body is odd, like a 40-year old man who works out at the YMCA, and he is a super lazy practice player. He thinks he can just show up and will himself to play because he’s very confident and football-smart. However, the lack of work ethic is showing up and will continue to deteriorate the player he is moving forward. He’s taken a slight step back this year.”

McKinstry did have better production in 2022 compared to what he has done this year. Thus far in 2023, he has 21 tackles and five passes broken up. In 2022, he became a full-time starter and recorded 35 tackles, a sack, an interception and 15 passes broken up. As a freshman in 2021, he collected 26 tackles and an interception.

Each one of the sources shared they felt that the cornerback starting across from McKinstry, Terrion “Ghost” Arnold, is the better pro prospect. Alabama is trying to convince Arnold to return to the program for next year by saying things like he could be a top-20 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with more development and a good season. However, NFL team sources already like Arnold more than McKinstry. McKinstry is being projected as a late first- or second-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to a team that likes to play press-man coverage.

 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I'd be pretty meh about any of the IOLmen. I trust Holmes completely, so I wouldn't be upset, but I just don't see any of the Day 1 guards or centers (JPJ, Fautanu, Fuaga) being head and shoulders above the Day 2 guards and centers (Zinter, Barton, Frazier, Beebe, Robinson, etc.).

Originally...

I was REALLY high on Fautanu, JPJ and Barton... I would have taken them in the 1st and been pleased...

But I've come around on the ability to be able to find other guys in the 3rd-5th that can be just or nearly as good... and so I'd rather draft the higher skill positions early and wait on IOL until the mid rounds.

But I did have an early fascination with those three...

 

 

Edited April 21 by 1984Echoes

[Jimbo]

I think its simple with Kool-aid.  If they draft him at 29 or after a trade, that means Holmes did his research and found the rumors about him false.  He's not a perfect GM (no one is) although I do feel like he wouldn't pick someone that doesn't put the effort in to be great.  If they pass on him with whatever pick then the rumors are true.  He is clearly a talented cover corner although you can get away with just talent in college, you need that combined with effort in the NFL. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

To answer my own question, it's the same player that I've been saying I don't want the Lions to draft, Missouri DE Darius Robinson. I'd be underwhelmed, but not upset, with the Robinson pick. Like everyone else they could draft, I would trust Brad Holmes enough to understand and except what they did. I'm not going to explode like I did when Millen picked Mike Williams or when Mayhew picked Eric Ebron.

I look at Robinson though as a player similar to what we already have on the team in Josh Paschal. Similar to Paschal in that he is not persay a dynamic pass rusher, with only one season in college where he had more than 5 sacks. Also similar in that pass rushing isn't really his main skill, but the ability to slide along the line and provide versatility to play inside and out (which this team seemingly values). He seems to lack that next gear or pass rush move that makes a guy a dynamic pass rusher. As well, Robinson underwhelmed at with his numbers at the combine posting a 4.95 40 time that was the slowest amongst defensive ends. His 21 reps of 225 on the bench press was disappointing as his strength is supposed to be one of his premier traits.

Looking at stats alone, I think I would be equally underwhelmed with drafting the other Robinson at DE, Chop Robinson from Penn State. He only put up 4 sacks in his biggest season at Penn State and never lit up the stat sheet any year he was there or at Maryland.

[Sports_Freak]

I'm coming around to the idea of taking an OL at #29. I can practically guarantee Holmes won't though. He's going to surprise us all and he's not to be questioned. 🤣🤣

[MichiganCardinal]

Here's my final mock draft:

1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
3. New England Patriots: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan 
4. Minnesota Vikings (Trade w/ ARI): Drake Maye, QB, UNC
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
9. Chicago Bears: Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
11. Arizona Cardinals (Trade w/ MIN): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
12. Denver Broncos: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
14. New Orleans Saints: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
15. Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
19. Los Angeles Rams: Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
21. Miami Dolphins: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
23. Detroit Lions (Trade* w/ ARI thru MIN & HOU): Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
24. Dallas Cowboys: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon
25. Green Bay Packers: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Troy Fuaga, OG/OT, Oregon State
27. Arizona Cardinals: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
29. Arizona Cardinals (Trade w/ DET): Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
30. Las Vegas Raiders (Trade w/ BAL): Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
31. San Francisco 49ers: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

*Trade: #29 and both 2025 4ths to Arizona for #23.

61. Detroit Lions: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

73. Detroit Lions: Zak Zinter, OG, Michigan

164. Detroit Lions: Austin Booker, EDGE, Kansas

201. Detroit Lions: Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama

205. Detroit Lions: Logan Lee, DT, Iowa

249. Detroit Lions: Ryan Watts, S, Texas

[1984Echoes]

Why does everyone keep making UNDERWHELMING choices for the Lions?

Since when has Holmes drafted UNDERWHELMING?

You just don't get it.

Here... THIS is something that Holmes WOULD do:

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Here's my final mock draft:

Chicago Bears (1): ...

Detroit Lions (23: Trade* w/ ARI thru MIN & HOU): Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

*Trade: #29 and both 2025 4ths to Arizona for #23.

61. Detroit Lions: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

73. Detroit Lions: Zak Zinter, OG, Michigan

164. Detroit Lions: Austin Booker, EDGE, Kansas

201. Detroit Lions: Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama

205. Detroit Lions: Logan Lee, DT, Iowa

249. Detroit Lions: Ryan Watts, S, Texas

 

THAT is a Lions draft.

 

 

 

Edited April 22 by 1984Echoes

[Shinzaki]

Mitchell and Wiggins...not to be confused with former Rocket SG MItchell Wiggins...are the 2 CB's I'd want to see them draft in RD 1

[buddha]

0 chance they take two 2025 4ths to trade back 6 spots in round one.

[1984Echoes]

Most likely.

So that's not a very realistic mock.

0% sounds about right.

But... IMO... the boldness is correctly placed.

[MichiganCardinal]

It’s my draft so Arizona can make any stupid decisions I decide they make. 😉 

But the point chart roughly works out. I went between the two 4ths and a 2025 3rd.

[buddha]

14 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

It’s my draft so Arizona can make any stupid decisions I decide they make. 😉 

But the point chart roughly works out. I went between the two 4ths and a 2025 3rd.

would you go from 29 to 36 for two 4th round picks?

i wouldnt.

[buddha]

but if all it takes to go up and get a guy they want is 2 4ths next year?  then by all means, do it.

[MichiganCardinal]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

would you go from 29 to 36 for two 4th round picks?

i wouldnt.

Probably not, but more so because we already have two 4ths next year. If we want a guy like Frazier, I probably would go down seven spots for a 3rd next year.

[1984Echoes]

Just now, MichiganCardinal said:

Probably not, but more so because we already have two 4ths next year. If we want a guy like Frazier, I probably would go down seven spots for a 3rd next year.

If a team is moving down and giving up a premium pick/ premium player... They better be getting "something" back that qualifies as premium.

That's why buddha is correct:

The mock trade with us moving down has us receiving the Raiders 2nd and 3rd round picks.

If the value chart says we can offer our 2024 3rd, or 2025 3rd, or our two 4ths, and the "values" are all the same (just using that as an example...): Then the team moving down would pick the highest "premium" they could get, or the 2024 3rd rounder. It would be EXTREMELY unlikely that the trade down team would take the two 4th instead of the 2024 3rd... but... I'm just guessing. 

[Jimbo]

Every draft is fluid and that's why its impossible to predict trades.  If you asked Holmes to predict trades he is going to make now he wouldn't be able to predict correctly.  Every pick and every player taken changes the course of the draft and actually future drafts (because you can use future picks).  Its fun to try and predict though.  If I were to make a bet, I think he will trade back but not too far for a 4th this year because they don't have one.  Would love if they could get DeJean, Coleman, or Legette with a trade down.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I was listening to a couple of draft podcasts yesterday and one player that I don't think has gotten enough attention when it comes to who the Lions might pick, first or second round, is Illinois DT Johnny Newton. Newton is a 3-Tech DT who can play on all three downs. He seems like a pretty good run stuffer but also offers some ability against the pass as well. He didn't light up the stat sheet with sacks and pressures but did manage 8 of them last season, similar to Darius Robinson. But the difference there is Robinson was a DE in college and played on the edge more than Newton who lined up on the interior, but slid to the edge when needed. Newton also seems to be a leader and a football dude like Campbell and Holmes want on their team. 

I'd still rather get a corner if we're going defense in the first. I think Newton would make a good second round choice, but like Robinson, I don't know that I want him in the first round. 

[RatkoVarda]

Newton had a broken foot at some point last year and kept playing - had it surgically fixed - not sure if you downgrade him for injury, or upgrade him for toughness and see his very good-not-great numbers and dream what could have been if healthy all season. no idea if he fits what they want at DT, but talent-wise he seems to be worth 29th pick

[buddha]

newton would be a good replacement for mcneill if they cant re-sign him.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

11 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Newton had a broken foot at some point last year and kept playing - had it surgically fixed - not sure if you downgrade him for injury, or upgrade him for toughness and see his very good-not-great numbers and dream what could have been if healthy all season. no idea if he fits what they want at DT, but talent-wise he seems to be worth 29th pick

Holmes seems to have no problem drafting and or signing injured players. So I don't think that would scare them off of Newton. They took Jamo in the first and he had a blown out ACL. They took Levi in the second and he had back problems. Hendon Hooker taken in the third and he also had a significant injury.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

newton would be a good replacement for mcneill if they cant re-sign him.

I think he would be the DJ Reader replacement long term. Reader is signed for two years. Given Newton's apparent ability to slide along the line and play on all three downs he could take the spot of John Cominsky up front for now and then replace Reader in a couple of years. If he was the pick I could see a defensive front that is Reader and McNeill on the interior, Hutch and Newton on the ends, Houston on the edge/stand up rusher on passing downs. I think the same could be true for Darius Robinson were he drafted.

[Motown Bombers]

McNeil is in the last year of his contract. I'm kind of surprised there are still players in the last year of their deals that haven't signed yet like Goff, St Brown and McNeil. Melifonwu is another potential free agent they may want to keep. 

[MichiganCardinal]

I wouldn't forget about Brodric Martin at the DT position. I think his job is more safe than Onwuzurike's at this point, and he's likely a part of their long-term plans in one way or another.