oblong Posted October 9 Posted October 9 Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA Watch National - FOX Listen: Mariners - Seattle Sports (710 AM), Tigers - 97.1 The Ticket, LaZ WDTW 1310AM/107.9FM National - ESPN Radio DET: Tarik Skubal SEA: George Kirby. Legacies to be defined? Quote
monkeytargets39 Posted October 9 Posted October 9 I’m a little nervous. TBD had such a great year for us last year, you know he’s gonna show up and be lights out again. 1 Quote
oblong Posted October 9 Author Posted October 9 I didn't know Cal was going to go Ohtani on us at the last minute... 2 Quote
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 9 Posted October 9 (edited) I expect a loss here because I believe yesterday was an anomaly and a mirage. This team is still bad at hitting. They still have poor approaches to the plate overall. They still press and swing at too many first pitches. They still strike out a lot and leave far too runners on-base, in scoring position. They still have issues with their bullpen. Yesterday was fun and I enjoyed it. Friday, I feel will be a reality check and a regression back to the mean. Skubal being on the mound brings me some level of confidence, but not much. His stats against the Mariners this season are atrocious. This season he has a 4.58 ERA, a 4.9 FIP, a 1.41 whip and averages less than 6 innings pitched per game against Seattle. A few years back Nelson Cruz was the Tiger killer and he just had our pitching staff's number. It feels like the Mariners have Skubal's number for whatever reason. Maybe it is because he is from Seattle and the pressure feels different? I don't know what the reasoning is, but the numbers aren't good. I want to be proven wrong. I hope to be proven wrong. I want to win this game in the worst way and go onto the ALCS. I just don't have a good feeling that it will happen. I feel like I am backed up by the statistical norms of the last three months of baseball that this team has played. In a sport where statistics and measurable analytics matter greatly, the math points to us losing. Edited October 9 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote
Sports_Freak Posted October 9 Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, oblong said: I didn't know Cal was going to go Ohtani on us at the last minute... Quote
RatkoVarda Posted October 9 Posted October 9 worth repeating what others have pointed out. Skubal did not get the job done in Game 5 last year; this is his 2nd chance to get the Tigers to the ALDS. His performance here will not effect his FA contract either way, but now is the chance to show everyone that he is a $400M pitcher. 1 Quote
MichiganCardinal Posted October 9 Posted October 9 Results of my scientific study on the Tigers chances to win depending on how many runs they score: 0: 0% 1: 5% 2: 15% 3: 50% 4: 75% 5: 90% Bert+: 97% I expect they'll score a very underwhelming 3, which puts it right at 50/50. Skubal will need to excel through 6. Hinch will need to not push him too far how he did last time we were in this position. Unless he is absolutely dealing, 7+ innings is probably pushing it. The bullpen will probably need to get nine outs without allowing three consecutive hard hit balls how they like to do. 1 Quote
IdahoBert Posted October 9 Posted October 9 30 minutes ago, oblong said: I didn't know Cal was going to go Ohtani on us at the last minute... I’m not sure what you’re talking about. Quote
Shades of Deivi Cruz Posted October 9 Posted October 9 1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I expect a loss here because I believe yesterday was an anomaly and a mirage. This team is still bad at hitting. They still have poor approaches to the plate overall. They still press and swing at too many first pitches. They still strike out a lot and leave far too runners on-base, in scoring position. They still have issues with their bullpen. Yesterday was fun and I enjoyed it. Friday, I feel will be a reality check and a regression back to the mean. Skubal being on the mound brings me some level of confidence, but not much. His stats against the Mariners this season are atrocious. This season he has a 4.58 ERA, a 4.9 FIP, a 1.41 whip and averages less than 6 innings pitched per game against Seattle. A few years back Nelson Cruz was the Tiger killer and he just had our pitching staff's number. It feels like the Mariners have Skubal's number for whatever reason. Maybe it is because he is from Seattle and the pressure feels different? I don't know what the reasoning is, but the numbers aren't good. I want to be proven wrong. I hope to be proven wrong. I want to win this game in the worst way and go onto the ALCS. I just don't have a good feeling that it will happen. I feel like I am backed up by the statistical norms of the last three months of baseball that this team has played. In a sport where statistics and measurable analytics matter greatly, the math points to us losing. Just asking, but why in your scenario are the Tigers reverting to the mean but the Mariners performance against Skubal this season is not? Quote
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 9 Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, Shades of Deivi Cruz said: Just asking, but why in your scenario are the Tigers reverting to the mean but the Mariners performance against Skubal this season is not? Skubal against the Mariners this season is 0-3 with an average of 3 runs given up per game. I think if we regress to our mean as of late and the Mariners play their average against Skubal they'll score between 3-4 runs. With the way this lineup has been hitting lately, 3-4 runs may be all it takes. Quote
Shades of Deivi Cruz Posted October 9 Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Skubal against the Mariners this season is 0-3 with an average of 3 runs given up per game. I think if we regress to our mean as of late and the Mariners play their average against Skubal they'll score between 3-4 runs. With the way this lineup has been hitting lately, 3-4 runs may be all it takes. But in the regular season the Tigers scored 29 runs in 6 games vs Seattle. Regression to that mean is 4.8 runs. So if Skubal pitches to his mean against Seattle, they score 3 runs and the Tigers 4-5. Tigers win! Quote
theroundsquare Posted October 9 Posted October 9 I don't think Mariners v. Skubal is a big enough sample to even think about regression to the mean in any meaningful way 1 Quote
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 9 Posted October 9 24 minutes ago, Shades of Deivi Cruz said: But in the regular season the Tigers scored 29 runs in 6 games vs Seattle. Regression to that mean is 4.8 runs. So if Skubal pitches to his mean against Seattle, they score 3 runs and the Tigers 4-5. Tigers win! But the Tigers lineup simply isn't hitting lately, outside of two games. Our lineup has averaged on 3.87 runs per game over the last 30 games. They are averaging 3.86 in the postseason overall. Maybe I an unfairly comparing two different things by holding Skubal to one standard and our lineup to another. I have just lost faith in this lineup at this point in the season to put together back to back games of real productivity. Quote
lordstanley Posted October 9 Posted October 9 2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I expect a loss here because I believe yesterday was an anomaly and a mirage. This team is still bad at hitting. They still have poor approaches to the plate overall. They still press and swing at too many first pitches. They still strike out a lot and leave far too runners on-base, in scoring position. They still have issues with their bullpen. Yesterday was fun and I enjoyed it. Friday, I feel will be a reality check and a regression back to the mean. Skubal being on the mound brings me some level of confidence, but not much. His stats against the Mariners this season are atrocious. This season he has a 4.58 ERA, a 4.9 FIP, a 1.41 whip and averages less than 6 innings pitched per game against Seattle. A few years back Nelson Cruz was the Tiger killer and he just had our pitching staff's number. It feels like the Mariners have Skubal's number for whatever reason. Maybe it is because he is from Seattle and the pressure feels different? I don't know what the reasoning is, but the numbers aren't good. I want to be proven wrong. I hope to be proven wrong. I want to win this game in the worst way and go onto the ALCS. I just don't have a good feeling that it will happen. I feel like I am backed up by the statistical norms of the last three months of baseball that this team has played. In a sport where statistics and measurable analytics matter greatly, the math points to us losing. Just four days ago Skubal in the same park against the same team he will be facing tomorrow went 7 innings and gave up 5 hits and 1 walk for 2 runs while striking out 9. That is an outing that will win you most games. A 2-1 loss tomorrow wouldn’t be blamed on pitching. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted October 9 Posted October 9 (edited) 34 minutes ago, theroundsquare said: I don't think Mariners v. Skubal is a big enough sample to even think about regression to the mean in any meaningful way Skubal pitched very well in his last start against the M's. The M's haven't done anything to 'solve' Skubal. The Tigers just need to score, which they would need to do in any game. The Skubal vs the Ms narrative is a nothing burger. EDIT: ditto to LordS Edited October 9 by gehringer_2 2 Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted October 9 Posted October 9 59 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: Skubal against the Mariners this season is 0-3 with an average of 3 runs given up per game. I think if we regress to our mean as of late and the Mariners play their average against Skubal they'll score between 3-4 runs. With the way this lineup has been hitting lately, 3-4 runs may be all it takes. C'mom don't be the TP of the tigers game thread! 😁 1 1 Quote
CaliforniaDreaming Posted October 9 Posted October 9 But...the Tiger's offense has out scored the Mariner's offense in this series 18 to 16. Maybe we should be talking about how the Mariners' offense is having more trouble scoring runs. 3 Quote
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 9 Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said: C'mom don't be the TP of the tigers game thread! 😁 I am really trying to be positive about this team but it's hard. It's playoff baseball and it's been enjoyable to watch. But this team was so dreadful the last 30 games and so pedestrian the last 50-60 games. With the historic collapse they had to close out the season it is hard to get out of this negative mindset and just be blindly enthusiastic and ra-ra. I'm trying though, I really am. Quote
4hzglory Posted October 9 Posted October 9 (edited) 17 minutes ago, CaliforniaDreaming said: But...the Tiger's offense has out scored the Mariner's offense in this series 18 to 16. Maybe we should be talking about how the Mariners' offense is having more trouble scoring runs. I was going to say the same thing Also, the Tigers have scored 3 runs or less twice in this series while the Mariners have 3 times. 🤪 Edited October 9 by 4hzglory Quote
4hzglory Posted October 9 Posted October 9 Interesting enough, both teams have almost identical batting lines: Detroit: .217 BA, .285 OBP, .362 slug, .647 OPS Seattle: .219 BA, .285 OBP, .387 slug, .672 OPS And surprisingly enough, both teams have 38K and 12 BB. So yes, the Tigers are K'ing at an crazy rate, but so too are the M's. The difference in slugging is the Mariners have 2 more HR (6), while the Tigers have 3 more 2B (8). Both teams have 30 hits, the Tigers have 1 more AB. In other words, Both teams are performing almost identical. 2 Quote
Sports_Freak Posted October 9 Posted October 9 The Seattle crowd is even harder on their home team that the Comerica park crowd is on the Tigers. I mean, their victory against us in game 2 was their first home playoff win in 24 years!! I'm not even sure when their last playoff series win was. The Tigers can totally take the crowd out of it with a couple/few early inning runs. Quote
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