2026 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[chasfh]

On 8/4/2026 at 4:05 PM, NorthWoods said:

 

 

[chasfh]

Are you ready to be blown away? Try this on your imagination.

The 2026 Detroit Tigers have now won five 8-0 shutouts during an 11 day-span since July 28. That absolutely shatters the record for shortest span during which a team won five such games. And when I say “shatter”, I mean by 26 days:

|Season |Team                     |Days  |Span              |
|--------|-------------------|------|------------------|
|2026   |Detroit Tigers            |11     |Jul 28 – Aug 8    |
|2008    |New York Yankees  |37    |May 21 – Jun 27   |
|1944    |St. Louis Cardinals  |50    |May 20 – Jul 9    |
|2021    |Milwaukee Brewers  |51    |Jul 18 – Sep 7    |
|1949    |Detroit Tigers           |60    |May 28 – Jul 27   |
|1958    |New York Yankees   |63    |May 10 – Jul 12   |

What makes this even more amazing is that in the history of baseball, since 1898, only 57 teams have even won at least five shutouts by eight or more runs at all during an entire season. And how rare is that? Since 1898, there have been 2,754 total team seasons, which means only 1 in 48 teams throughout history have ever won at least five shutouts of 8-0 or more in a season. In today’s terms, that’s roughly two teams every three years.

And the cherry is top is that these Tigers have already won eight such games, one of only five teams in history to have done so in a season, and the season record is nine. Those five teams include the 1969 Orioles (109 wins) and 2019 Dodgers (106 wins), and they all led their leagues in runs scored except the 1949 Tigers (3rd).

I mean … my god. 

[Shelton]

So, we’ve come to the point in the season where the playoff odds swings every day are going to drive me to drink, either in celebration or sorrow. I don’t make the rules. 

we are also at the point t where fangraphs and bref can differ somewhat significantly. Fangraphs even allows you to tweak which one of their systems to use for forecasting purposes.

Anyway:

Bref SRS rating projection: 42% (currently the WC3 in their projection)

FG projection mode: 27% (using rest of season projections for specific players and playing time guesses)

FG season-to-date mode: 50%

 

Pick your poison I guess  

 

[Shelton]

13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Are you ready to be blown away? Try this on your imagination.

The 2026 Detroit Tigers have now won five 8-0 shutouts during an 11 day-span since July 28. That absolutely shatters the record for shortest span during which a team won five such games. And when I say “shatter”, I mean by 26 days:

|Season |Team                     |Days  |Span              |
|--------|-------------------|------|------------------|
|2026   |Detroit Tigers            |11     |Jul 28 – Aug 8    |
|2008    |New York Yankees  |37    |May 21 – Jun 27   |
|1944    |St. Louis Cardinals  |50    |May 20 – Jul 9    |
|2021    |Milwaukee Brewers  |51    |Jul 18 – Sep 7    |
|1949    |Detroit Tigers           |60    |May 28 – Jul 27   |
|1958    |New York Yankees   |63    |May 10 – Jul 12   |

What makes this even more amazing is that in the history of baseball, since 1898, only 57 teams have even won at least five shutouts by eight or more runs at all during an entire season. And how rare is that? Since 1898, there have been 2,754 total team seasons, which means only 1 in 48 teams throughout history have ever won at least five shutouts of 8-0 or more in a season. In today’s terms, that’s roughly two teams every three years.

And the cherry is top is that these Tigers have already won eight such games, one of only five teams in history to have done so in a season, and the season record is nine. Those five teams include the 1969 Orioles (109 wins) and 2019 Dodgers (106 wins), and they all led their leagues in runs scored except the 1949 Tigers (3rd).

I mean … my god. 

This deserves to be in the Peter Chase Files. Well done. 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Shelton said:

This deserves to be in the Peter Chase Files. Well done. 

Well, isn't that high praise. 😜

[Motor City Sonics]

Has anyone heard anything about Parker Meadows? 

[papalawrence]

I had Chinese food for lunch and the fortune cookie read "odds for post season 68%" and my son's read "the Dodgers suck."

[NorthWoods]

5 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Has anyone heard anything about Parker Meadows? 

I've heard he's good field, no hit.

[wolverinefan]

5 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Has anyone heard anything about Parker Meadows? 

I was thinking he'd just replace Outman, but we will see Wenceel first..

[SeattleMike]

7 minutes ago, wolverinefan said:

I was thinking he'd just replace Outman, but we will see Wenceel first..

Then what happens when Vierling and Carpenter return? 

[Shelton]

1 hour ago, SeattleMike said:

Then what happens when Vierling and Carpenter return? 

You keep two from the group of Vierling, Wenceel, Lee, and Carpenter. If it’s after September 1 you keep three. 

[Edman85]

11 hours ago, Shelton said:

So, we’ve come to the point in the season where the playoff odds swings every day are going to drive me to drink, either in celebration or sorrow. I don’t make the rules. 

we are also at the point t where fangraphs and bref can differ somewhat significantly. Fangraphs even allows you to tweak which one of their systems to use for forecasting purposes.

Anyway:

Bref SRS rating projection: 42% (currently the WC3 in their projection)

FG projection mode: 27% (using rest of season projections for specific players and playing time guesses)

FG season-to-date mode: 50%

 

Pick your poison I guess  

 

I am not a fan of the bref odds, which don't take roster strength into account.

I still have a BP sub (cancelled after their TERRIBLE write-up of the Skubal trade where the author included a ton of unnecessary reverse racism and the assertion that the Tigers should have just signed Skubal as if that is a one way street... but it runs until February), so look at their odds using PECOTA too.

[Edman85]

Any guesses?

 

 

[monkeytargets39]

Adam Bernero?

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Adam Bernero?

Looking at his background and having gotten a hint, I think you got it.  

[monkeytargets39]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

Looking at his background and having gotten a hint, I think you got it.  

The complete lack of fans in the background led me to believe it was someone from 02/03….

[lordstanley]

13 hours ago, Shelton said:

So, we’ve come to the point in the season where the playoff odds swings every day are going to drive me to drink, either in celebration or sorrow. I don’t make the rules. 

we are also at the point t where fangraphs and bref can differ somewhat significantly. Fangraphs even allows you to tweak which one of their systems to use for forecasting purposes.

Anyway:

Bref SRS rating projection: 42% (currently the WC3 in their projection)

FG projection mode: 27% (using rest of season projections for specific players and playing time guesses)

FG season-to-date mode: 50%

 

Pick your poison I guess  

 

I think we're getting pretty close to the point where the Tigers are the AL Central favorites. At 3.5 games back with 44 games to go, not quite there yet. But by this time next week, if they're still ahead of Cleveland and Minnesota and are down to 1.5 or 2.5 behind Chicago with 38 games to go, I'd give the nod to the Tigers. 

[NorthWoods]

19 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

I think we're getting pretty close to the point where the Tigers are the AL Central favorites. At 3.5 games back with 44 games to go, not quite there yet. But by this time next week, if they're still ahead of Cleveland and Minnesota and are down to 1.5 or 2.5 behind Chicago with 38 games to go, I'd give the nod to the Tigers. 

It would seem run differential alone might do this.

[lordstanley]

1 hour ago, NorthWoods said:

It would seem run differential alone might do this.

And also, while I know every season is different and rosters turn over and players improve or fall back, I'm skeptical that after losing 102 games last year the White Sox will avoid a rough patch at some point in the final 1/4 of this season. Incidentally, with today's win over Cleveland, Chicago surpassed last season's win total. 60W 102L then, 61W 56L now. 

Edited August 10 by lordstanley

[Sports_Freak]

20 hours ago, chasfh said:

Are you ready to be blown away? Try this on your imagination.

The 2026 Detroit Tigers have now won five 8-0 shutouts during an 11 day-span since July 28. That absolutely shatters the record for shortest span during which a team won five such games. And when I say “shatter”, I mean by 26 days:

|Season |Team                     |Days  |Span              |
|--------|-------------------|------|------------------|
|2026   |Detroit Tigers            |11     |Jul 28 – Aug 8    |
|2008    |New York Yankees  |37    |May 21 – Jun 27   |
|1944    |St. Louis Cardinals  |50    |May 20 – Jul 9    |
|2021    |Milwaukee Brewers  |51    |Jul 18 – Sep 7    |
|1949    |Detroit Tigers           |60    |May 28 – Jul 27   |
|1958    |New York Yankees   |63    |May 10 – Jul 12   |

What makes this even more amazing is that in the history of baseball, since 1898, only 57 teams have even won at least five shutouts by eight or more runs at all during an entire season. And how rare is that? Since 1898, there have been 2,754 total team seasons, which means only 1 in 48 teams throughout history have ever won at least five shutouts of 8-0 or more in a season. In today’s terms, that’s roughly two teams every three years.

And the cherry is top is that these Tigers have already won eight such games, one of only five teams in history to have done so in a season, and the season record is nine. Those five teams include the 1969 Orioles (109 wins) and 2019 Dodgers (106 wins), and they all led their leagues in runs scored except the 1949 Tigers (3rd).

I mean … my god. 

Excellent post. Thank you for this. I wonder how many of the 8-0 shutouts were on the road? That makes it even more impressive 

[CaliforniaDreaming]

I really dislike off days since I'm greedy for Tigers baseball. But it seems like this off day is great timing: the team can prepare for a couple of big home series with a positive attitude and all kinds of confidence...the bullpen can get rested up so there will not be a need to stick with a struggling starter if a change needs to be made...Job & Melton can get an extra day's rest to keep them healing/fresh OR someone could be skipped/swapped to get to Melton sooner. A lot of good options possible because of this off day.

[RatkoVarda]

can still marginally improve the team

hoping for a healthy Carpenter, who can get on a HR streak; better than Outman

hoping for Wenceel's eye to be OK; he has done well as a RH bat; better than Malgeri

any pitcher at Toledo (I see Wolf had a nice debut) could come up if they are throwing well

[kdog]

Does Melton have a hard innings limit? 

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

hoping for Wenceel's eye to be OK; he has done well as a RH bat; better than Malgeri

With Clark and McKinstry available in the OF there hopefully will be no temptation to use him as a LH hitter there.

[Tenacious D]

I think Vierling and Carpenter will push Outman and Malgeri out.

Maybe Wenceel when rosters expand or another injury requires it.