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2022 NCAA Football Thread


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1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

We are 8 years in and is there really any way to justify the decision to make Rutgers part of the B10?   A big error by past leadership.

but all those people in new jersey and new york really care about college football now!

got the btn onto nyc cable?  i dont know if that's actually true or not.

but expanding to rutgers and maryland was really dumb.  

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43 minutes ago, buddha said:

but all those people in new jersey and new york really care about college football now!

got the btn onto nyc cable?  i dont know if that's actually true or not.

but expanding to rutgers and maryland was really dumb.  

One of the beautiful things about NYC in the fall is how random bars get taken over on Saturday by alumni groups.  It you have a P5 team, there is somewhere in Manhattan where you can walk in and see others wearing your colors and signing the fight song when you score.  

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3 hours ago, Hongbit said:

We are 8 years in and is there really any way to justify the decision to make Rutgers part of the B10?   A big error by past leadership.

If you gave Kevin Warren truth serum on the question of whether he thinks it was a mistake to admit Rutgers and Maryland, I’m really not sure the answer you would get.

On one hand, they brought the NY and DC markets, as intended, which was the only purpose of their admission. The media markets within the B1G footprint is what then drove their media deal to be #1, above the SEC, despite the SEC possessing a far better quality of football and a far more motivated fan base. Drawing the line from the prior media deal to this one, is it possible you don’t get USC and UCLA to jump to you if your media deal isn’t already approaching a billion?

On the other hand, the teams suck and their alumni/fan base are some of the worst in the nation. With media markets in terms of geographic footprints going the way of the dodo bird, in favor of streaming plans, their placement on the map doesn’t look as great as it did a decade ago. Schools like Oregon may not bring the shiny next city, but they’ll bring motivated alumni who will pay whatever you’re asking to stream their Ducks.

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25 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

If you gave Kevin Warren truth serum on the question of whether he thinks it was a mistake to admit Rutgers and Maryland, I’m really not sure the answer you would get.

On one hand, they brought the NY and DC markets, as intended, which was the only purpose of their admission. The media markets within the B1G footprint is what then drove their media deal to be #1, above the SEC, despite the SEC possessing a far better quality of football and a far more motivated fan base. Drawing the line from the prior media deal to this one, is it possible you don’t get USC and UCLA to jump to you if your media deal isn’t already approaching a billion?

On the other hand, the teams suck and their alumni/fan base are some of the worst in the nation. With media markets in terms of geographic footprints going the way of the dodo bird, in favor of streaming plans, their placement on the map doesn’t look as great as it did a decade ago. Schools like Oregon may not bring the shiny next city, but they’ll bring motivated alumni who will pay whatever you’re asking to stream their Ducks.

from what ive heard, oregon and washington dont bring much to the table money-wise and may actually be a drag on the conference.

seems hard to believe but that's what's been out there.

and we all know the next expansion is all about notre dame.

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4 hours ago, buddha said:

from what ive heard, oregon and washington dont bring much to the table money-wise and may actually be a drag on the conference.

seems hard to believe but that's what's been out there.

and we all know the next expansion is all about notre dame.

It doesn't surprise me. I think Oregon bringing Phil Knight and Nike shouldn't be underrated, but I agree that Washington doesn't have much to offer.

It's why Stanford (despite their recent ineptitude on the football field and their lackluster fanbase) is likely higher on the B1G list, because they can bring the SF market and fit like a glove in the conference academically.

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36 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

It doesn't surprise me. I think Oregon bringing Phil Knight and Nike shouldn't be underrated, but I agree that Washington doesn't have much to offer.

It's why Stanford (despite their recent ineptitude on the football field and their lackluster fanbase) is likely higher on the B1G list, because they can bring the SF market and fit like a glove in the conference academically.

i guess seattle isnt that big of a market yet!

stanford could potentially influence notre dame.  then again, i really wonder if they would leave cal behind?

but youre right about the academic thing, obviously.

i still think the wishlist would be notre dame, stanford, north carolina, and then maybe virginia or cal.

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36 minutes ago, buddha said:

i guess seattle isnt that big of a market yet!

stanford could potentially influence notre dame.  then again, i really wonder if they would leave cal behind?

but youre right about the academic thing, obviously.

i still think the wishlist would be notre dame, stanford, north carolina, and then maybe virginia or cal.

I don’t think rivalries will matter for ND’s conference decision.  They will stay Independent if they get stupid money from NBC.  If not, it’s most likely B10 unless the ACC somehow pulls a rabbit out of their ass and slides around B12 as the 3rd conference.   Don’t see that happening.

Cal is coming too if Stanford comes.  Makes it easier for Bay Area travel and fixes the UCLA situation too.

Edited by Hongbit
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4 minutes ago, buddha said:

i guess seattle isnt that big of a market yet!

stanford could potentially influence notre dame.  then again, i really wonder if they would leave cal behind?

but youre right about the academic thing, obviously.

i still think the wishlist would be notre dame, stanford, north carolina, and then maybe virginia or cal.

Not to diminish Seattle, but they don't bring what the LA teams just did (granted no one else will). Seattle is the #12 market on the list I briefly referenced, wedged between Phoenix and Tampa, just above Minneapolis. The markets above them that aren't yet B1G territory include Dallas/Fort Worth, San Francisco/San Jose/Oakland, Atlanta, Houston, Boston, and Phoenix.

As you add more schools and more money to the pot, that adds more slices to the proverbial pie. I can understand why absent other mitigating factors (ND's alumni base and history, Stanford's academics), it's not worth creating more slices.

I can't imagine Stanford's presence doing anything to Notre Dame's radar that USC and UCLA didn't. We are historical rivals, but so were Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, so were UCLA and Cal. Money just matters more... Other than their intolerable ego though, ND's issue in the era of super-conferences is going to become scheduling teams. Adding Stanford/Cal might push them over the edge just in concern of having enough good teams to schedule. With ten or more conference games, none of the B1G or SEC teams will have any real incentive to schedule a more difficult non-conference foe, and ND may find a 11-2 or 10-3 B1G team being selected over them at 11-1 or 10-2 if they can only schedule the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 leftovers.

I think Stanford would have a desire to bring Cal, but again... money matters more. I don't think there is a school outside the SEC right now that would not accept a B1G invite virtually unconditionally.

I largely agree with you regarding their rough list, but I think I would it more along the lines of 1) Notre Dame, 2) Stanford, 3) Oregon, 4a) UNC, 4b) Duke, 5a) Washington, 5b) Cal, 6+) Virginia/VA Tech, Georgia Tech, TCU/Baylor, Utah/Colorado, Arizona/Arizona State, Florida State/Miami, Boston College.... I think it's likely very fluid as well.

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1 minute ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Not to diminish Seattle, but they don't bring what the LA teams just did (granted no one else will). Seattle is the #12 market on the list I briefly referenced, wedged between Phoenix and Tampa, just above Minneapolis. The markets above them that aren't yet B1G territory include Dallas/Fort Worth, San Francisco/San Jose/Oakland, Atlanta, Houston, Boston, and Phoenix.

As you add more schools and more money to the pot, that adds more slices to the proverbial pie. I can understand why absent other mitigating factors (ND's alumni base and history, Stanford's academics), it's not worth creating more slices.

I can't imagine Stanford's presence doing anything to Notre Dame's radar that USC and UCLA didn't. We are historical rivals, but so were Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, so were UCLA and Cal. Money just matters more... Other than their intolerable ego though, ND's issue in the era of super-conferences is going to become scheduling teams. Adding Stanford/Cal might push them over the edge just in concern of having enough good teams to schedule. With ten or more conference games, none of the B1G or SEC teams will have any real incentive to schedule a more difficult non-conference foe, and ND may find a 11-2 or 10-3 B1G team being selected over them at 11-1 or 10-2 if they can only schedule the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 leftovers.

I think Stanford would have a desire to bring Cal, but again... money matters more. I don't think there is a school outside the SEC right now that would not accept a B1G invite virtually unconditionally.

I largely agree with you regarding their rough list, but I think I would it more along the lines of 1) Notre Dame, 2) Stanford, 3) Oregon, 4a) UNC, 4b) Duke, 5a) Washington, 5b) Cal, 6+) Virginia/VA Tech, Georgia Tech, TCU/Baylor, Utah/Colorado, Arizona/Arizona State, Florida State/Miami, Boston College.... I think it's likely very fluid as well.

duke brings nothing to the conference.  duke is beholden to whatever unc deigns to give them.  in fact, duke is more likely to join the "basketball only" big east than the big ten or the sec.

or just stay in the second division acc after unc bolts to the big ten or sec.

maybe the acc should invite navy to get nd to stay?

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reminds me of when "football genius" dave wanstedt said he had sources who told him kansas and iowa state were joining the big ten shortly.

this was right after oklahoma and texas joined the sec.

but i dont need to tell you how stupid dave wannstedt is or that he's on chicago radio (along with all the other local geniuses).

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25 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I don’t think rivalries will matter for ND’s conference decision.  They will stay Independent if they get stupid money from NBC.  If not, it’s most likely B10 unless the ACC somehow pulls a rabbit out of their ass and slides around B12 as the 3rd conference.   Don’t see that happening.

Cal is coming too if Stanford comes.  Makes it easier for Bay Area travel and fixes the UCLA situation too.

If the super conferences are not more selective in who they admit, they defeat their own purpose. You end up exactly where we already are with divisions within the super conferences that will look suspiciously like the old conferences. Keep in mind the prime economic driver is the schools that generate the ratings not wanting to share with the neer-do-wells. More total money nationwide means nothing to the powerhouse schools if dilution to more schools means less money for them individually.

Edited by gehringer_2
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PAC10 commish wasn’t shy about talking down to the Big 12 at the PAC10 junket.  I don’t think there will be any kind of deal in place between the two to help each other’s survival.  One will take some from the other and that will be it. I’m just not sure which way it will go, but most assuredly it will come down to which entity TV dollars prefer.

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2 hours ago, buddha said:

is there anything left in the big 12 worth taking?

It seems odd to me that the B12 might have a sliver of a chance if they pull in the 4 four corner colleges from the P12, at least that theory exists out there.  Heck, that might be their only chance at not dissolving unless they grab ND, but that seems like having only one WR, and a 5'2" one at that, available for a Hail Mary from about 80 yards out.

We're not going to recognize college sports in 5 years.

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On 7/1/2022 at 1:52 PM, chasfh said:

This would be a golden chance to finally implement a promotion/relegation system in American sports. You can't do that with pro sports because fans and owners would never stand for it, but at the college level, it would be a lot easier, and provide an incentive for bubble schools to get better.

I was thinking today about what the “end” to all this expansion looks like and this post came to my mind. I don’t think there is necessarily going to be a real end. I don’t see a reason why any given number (be it 16, 20, 24, or whatever) is going to magically cause decades of stability at the college ranks like we see in the professional sports.

Even if there is an identified “sweet spot” number of teams, where the B1G and SEC like their chances to maximize revenue while minimizing the number of slices to the pie. Even if they publicly state that they’re officially done expanding. Even if the B1G and SEC change focus altogether, to leaving the NCAA for football and creating their own   playoff…… I don’t think we will see much loyalty at all between these piecemeal conferences, which could lead to something of a promotion/relegation system.

To engage in a hypothetical… say that Notre Dame joins the B1G tomorrow, and the B1G subsequently invites Stanford, Cal, and Oregon, all of whom quickly accept. The B1G announces they’re done expanding as the PAC 12 folds and its remaining teams join the Big 12. The SEC responds by adding Clemson, Miami, Florida State, and Oklahoma State to get to 20 and also says they’re done. The earthquake seems to be over with two strong conferences and two sub-conferences.

Fast forward five years from now, the B1G is making insane amounts of money… so have one or two select ACC and Big 12 teams. Let’s say Virginia, for instance, has maintained their success in basketball, has combined that with some sustained success in football, and have created a pretty successful money-making brand. Meanwhile, Maryland still sucks and is effectively losing the B1G money… And the B1G leaders have the realization that “we are making a lot of money…. But we could be making more!”

I don’t think the money making decision makers at USC, UCLA, and Notre Dame would feel an ounce of sympathy or loyalty towards Maryland. I don’t think the money making decision makers at Michigan, Michigan State, or Ohio State care nearly enough about Maryland to stick up for them. We could see a Maryland (or Rutgers or even Nebraska) get the boot for Virginia, if the B1G thinks Virginia can make them more money over the long-term.

Now to be clear, I don’t see the B1G OGs allowing the new guys in the room to cut Illinois, Purdue, or Indiana loose anytime soon, no matter how many consecutive 2-10 seasons they put together… And I don’t see Central Michigan, Akron, or even Cincinnati being added to the conference, even if they can put together 13-0 seasons… at the same time, I don’t see an end to expansion/realignment, so long as monetary dynamics continue to develop. Which could lead itself to something of a promotion and relegation system.

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1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I don’t see a reason why any given number (be it 16, 20, 24, or whatever) is going to magically cause decades of stability at the college ranks like we see in the professional sports.

Postulate 1: Money is the driver of all things.

If NIL becomes a major cost - which is appears is going to happen, then someone has to pay it. And that means you need to take that money from fans, and that means it comes down to the marketability of a giving team either nationally or regionally vs the potential population. Almost no teams are really marketable nationally, so I think there is a good chance it will end up following the pro sports model, which is that there will be top level teams where there are major markets to support the costs - and the number of those markets will determine the number of those teams. 

Granted this is but one of a hundred possibilities, but right now, in the absence of any vision articulated by anyone in college football of where else they might be going, I would rank it the most likely.

Edited by gehringer_2
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On 7/19/2022 at 1:11 PM, casimir said:

Oh, I think that ND to the B10 would already be a done deal if NBC gets a piece of the B10 broadcasts.

Hearing a rumor that NBC is considering adding Saturday prime time college football to its lineup.  Maybe not necessarily for Notre Dame on Saturday nights, but could this be a Big Ten game which Notre Dame would be a part of?

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45 minutes ago, casimir said:

Hearing a rumor that NBC is considering adding Saturday prime time college football to its lineup.  Maybe not necessarily for Notre Dame on Saturday nights, but could this be a Big Ten game which Notre Dame would be a part of?

i thought i read that nbc was bidding for part of the big ten's rights too.  maybe that goes along with that?

prime time acc games without notre dame arent moving the needle.

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1 hour ago, buddha said:

i thought i read that nbc was bidding for part of the big ten's rights too.  maybe that goes along with that?

prime time acc games without notre dame arent moving the needle.

Notre Dame has to bring in lights, correct?  So, maybe they get one or two games at home.  A few more night games on the road, especially the trips west to USC and Stanford.

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