RandyMarsh Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 With the draft just over a month away I figure it's time to start a thread. The draft will start on Sunday July 17th and conclude on the 19th. It will be taking place in LA during All Star weekend. The Tigers have the 12th and 51st pick in day 1. They would've had the 72nd pick as well but we traded it for Meadows, we also lost our 3rd round pick due to the signing of E-Rod. I'll post some links to big boards and when more mocks come out we can add to it. MLB.com's ranking https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2022/draft/ Keith Law https://theathletic.com/3366251/2022/06/16/mlb-draft-prospects-kumar-rocker/ CBS https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/top-30-players-in-2022-mlb-draft-druw-jones-jackson-holliday-have-strong-bloodlines-kumar-rocker-makes-list/ fangraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 ESPN https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/33810529/kiley-mcdaniel-2022-mlb-draft-rankings-20-which-former-mlb-star-son-soars-our-top-150 Some of these rankings are a little old but are the most current they have so hopefully soon there will be some updated ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 The prospect lists seem to be top heavy with position players which I like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: The Tigers have the 12th and 51st pick in day 1. They would've had the 72nd pick as well but we traded it for Meadows, we also lost our 3rd round pick due to the signing of E-Rod. The price you pay for being a contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 after 51, they don't pick until 117, so they had better get those first 2 right (even though they have been drafting better lately) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Repost: The dearth of elite college pitchers in this draft is going to work against the Tigers. Not because they should take another, but because of serious arm injuries (some are TJ) to 3-4 guys who likely would have been top 15 picks, means that the 11 teams ahead of us will be drafting position players, some of which might have fallen to us. Saw a few mocks where Brock Porter, a local pitcher from Orchard Lake St. Mary HS, will be the first pitcher drafted. By whom you might ask? According to the mocks, the Tigers will take him with their 12th pick. I don’t think that will happen, but it’s just the Tiger’s luck that the best position players will likely be gone before they pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Great to see 3 Detroit area high schoolers listed in Law’s top 100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 sure sure, but is there a right handed high schooler with great spin rate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 I want a right-handed college pitcher with a history of elbow problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 2 hours ago, buddha said: sure sure, but is there a right handed high schooler with great spin rate? lol. Speaking of spin rates I can't remember who it was, I think it may have been Scottwood or G2 but they brought up a good point. About 5 or so years ago spin rate was what all the "smart" teams were looking for while teams like us at the time were still focused on velocity. Now in the past 2 years we start paying attention to that and chasing guys like that and it seems like teams have moved on from putting emphasis on that. I mean it's not that they don't care at all but they don't fawn over those numbers anymore cause hitters have already adjusted and are hitting the once unhittable high FB regardless of the spin. They will of course go for the guy with more spin all things else being equal but they now look at different factors when targeting guys. Of course the Tigers are late to the party on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said: lol. Speaking of spin rates I can't remember who it was, I think it may have been Scottwood or G2 but they brought up a good point. About 5 or so years ago spin rate was what all the "smart" teams were looking for while teams like us at the time were still focused on velocity. Now in the past 2 years we start paying attention to that and chasing guys like that and it seems like teams have moved on from putting emphasis on that. I mean it's not that they don't care at all but they don't fawn over those numbers anymore cause hitters have already adjusted and are hitting the once unhittable high FB regardless of the spin. They will of course go for the guy with more spin all things else being equal but they now look at different factors when targeting guys. Of course the Tigers are late to the party on that. I think it's a little ironic that as the data has gotten better it may have gotten harder to parse. I could be wrong but I was under the impression that when Brooks first started posting spins, they were numbers that were imputed from the velocity and break of the ball because that data was available before true spin data. But I wonder if that number wasn't actually more useful because it's the break you care about. Brooks used to do vertical break heat maps and those seemed to correlate better to a power pitcher's effectiveness than anything else. Pitchers whose fast ball had both a high maximum break and wide variation in the break tended to be most dominant. If a guy spins the ball at high RPM but his inclination and grip aren't optimal, it won't break as much as another guy that keeps the seams cutting the air flow more efficiently. So now you have to look at a bunch of additional factors to get spin 'efficiency'. All I really want to know is how much 'apparent rise' does a 4 seam fastball have because that is what generates the miss when you play it against any other breaking ball that generally goes down. With the current statcast suite I tend to ignore raw spin data and just look at break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I want a right-handed college pitcher with a history of elbow problems. I want a R/R first baseman who hits 7th for his high school team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microline133 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said: lol. Speaking of spin rates I can't remember who it was, I think it may have been Scottwood or G2 but they brought up a good point. About 5 or so years ago spin rate was what all the "smart" teams were looking for while teams like us at the time were still focused on velocity. Now in the past 2 years we start paying attention to that and chasing guys like that and it seems like teams have moved on from putting emphasis on that. I mean it's not that they don't care at all but they don't fawn over those numbers anymore cause hitters have already adjusted and are hitting the once unhittable high FB regardless of the spin. They will of course go for the guy with more spin all things else being equal but they now look at different factors when targeting guys. Of course the Tigers are late to the party on that. I'm not so sure teams have really moved past spin rate as much as they are now evaluating it in conjunction with other things....pitch tunnelling, an interesting (and quiet) slight shift back to physical characteristics, etc. They won't let "just" spin rate drive decisins, but instead look for these other things along with that. Many are still using it as an entry into the discussion and then considering other data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, microline133 said: I'm not so sure teams have really moved past spin rate as much as they are now evaluating it in conjunction with other things....pitch tunnelling, an interesting (and quiet) slight shift back to physical characteristics, etc. They won't let "just" spin rate drive decisins, but instead look for these other things along with that. Many are still using it as an entry into the discussion and then considering other data. Yeah this is kinda what I was thinking just from reading between the tea leaves of some of the scouts I read and follow particularly the pitch tunneling. BTW I mentioned him in the farm thread but I was wondering what your opinion of Austin Bergner is? His numbers in AA look really good but doing quick google searches I can't find much in depth about how his stuff actually looks or if he is somebody worth monitoring or a non prospect. edit: I should say I have seen reports on him preseason but statistically he seems to have taken a step forward this year so I was wondering if there was any improvement stuff wise or projection wise over what people thought going into the season. Edited June 18, 2022 by RandyMarsh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 How much is 'tunneling' a new concept as opposed to a more in depth take on Jim Prices old "keyhole" paradigm? The ultimate idea is not to give the batter any clues to what is coming until it's too late. Things like identical release points and arm motion are maybe not so much new ideas as that like everything else, there are now more measurements to take to tell you how well you are doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 Another thing I heard just from reading chats from the various national pundits is that some teams namely the Indians who have had a ton of good starters the last several years target guys with great command with the thought that they could potentially coach or get more stuff out of them vs. the old Tiger mindset of drafting guys with great raw stuff with no command in hopes of coaching them to develop that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microline133 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 It's purely that people have figured out how to quantify concepts that have been around forever. Scouts aren't dumb, the good ones just have the ability to see shit that most can't.... It's human nature when you can't see it yourself, you don't believe it and ultimately criticize it. Scouts have been the victim of that for years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microline133 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said: Another thing I heard just from reading chats from the various national pundits is that some teams namely the Indians who have had a ton of good starters the last several years target guys with great command with the thought that they could potentially coach or get more stuff out of them vs. the old Tiger mindset of drafting guys with great raw stuff with no command in hopes of coaching them to develop that. That was the old Twins approach too and they ultimately walked away from it. When Rick Knapp came over to the Tigers from the Twins he was giddy at the idea of working with so many high powered arms and trying to coax more out of them... He could do things with those arms he could never do with the arms in the Twins organization. You can rationalize either approach, but one clearly had the potential to yield more impact arms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, microline133 said: That was the old Twins approach too and they ultimately walked away from it. When Rick Knapp came over to the Tigers from the Twins he was giddy at the idea of working with so many high powered arms and trying to coax more out of them... He could do things with those arms he could never do with the arms in the Twins organization. You can rationalize either approach, but one clearly had the potential to yield more impact arms. Even though I'm starting to lean towards the get guys that already have great command regardless of stuff(to a certain degree of course) I can totally understand the approach of taking the guys with great raw stuff cause if you can fine tune them you get a Justin Verlander but if you can't you get a Riley Pint. You see it in football with QBs, teams will draft QBs with great physical tools with sketchy accuracy in hopes of the same thing, could develop a Josh Allen or it could be a Jamarcus Russell. Ditto for basketball with elite athletes with shaky jump shots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microline133 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Yeah this is kinda what I was thinking just from reading between the tea leaves of some of the scouts I read and follow particularly the pitch tunneling. BTW I mentioned him in the farm thread but I was wondering what your opinion of Austin Bergner is? His numbers in AA look really good but doing quick google searches I can't find much in depth about how his stuff actually looks or if he is somebody worth monitoring or a non prospect. edit: I should say I have seen reports on him preseason but statistically he seems to have taken a step forward this year so I was wondering if there was any improvement stuff wise or projection wise over what people thought going into the season. I'm not avoiding this...just recognize that people get sick of me shitting on prospects. It's the nature of the beast.... odds are, any prospect you ask about isn't going to be successful as a big leaguer. In terms of Bergner, he's more an up and down arm that could see some time as a back end starter if he's effective when he gets an opportunity. There's enough there to turn over a lineup once if he gains consistency, but I wouldn't go much past that. It's hard to say how he'd play in shorter stints given the differences I'm usage these days, but that could be a viable backup option for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 1 minute ago, microline133 said: I'm not avoiding this...just recognize that people get sick of me shitting on prospects. It's the nature of the beast.... odds are, any prospect you ask about isn't going to be successful as a big leaguer. In terms of Bergner, he's more an up and down arm that could see some time as a back end starter if he's effective when he gets an opportunity. There's enough there to turn over a lineup once if he gains consistency, but I wouldn't go much past that. It's hard to say how he'd play in shorter stints given the differences I'm usage these days, but that could be a viable backup option for him. lol I know some of us on here may joke about you being a negative Nancy but you call it like you see it and 9 times out 10 you have been right and the Tigers lack of producing home grown talent is proof of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Even though I'm starting to lean towards the get guys that already have great command regardless of stuff(to a certain degree of course) I can totally understand the approach of taking the guys with great raw stuff cause if you can fine tune them you get a Justin Verlander but if you can't you get a Riley Pint. You see it in football with QBs, teams will draft QBs with great physical tools with sketchy accuracy in hopes of the same thing, could develop a Josh Allen or it could be a Jamarcus Russell. Ditto for basketball with elite athletes with shaky jump shots. I think the argument over command vs power arms just comes down the the irreducible fact that everything you do as pitcher is magnified in the problems it presents to the hitter if you do it at higher velo. Guys who are successful in the majors without a 90+ mph FB have to have really extraordinary added value in their stuff to make up for the time they are giving the batter to see the ball. So the trade off is that if I look at a guy without a power arm, he *might* be the next Greg Maddox, but the odds of that are so low I'm going to take the hard thrower because the odds he develops control (which are low) are still no worse than that the soft tosser turns out to be the next Greg Maddox because those odds are also really low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, microline133 said: ...just recognize that people get sick of me shitting on prospects. Not all of us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 38 minutes ago, microline133 said: I'm not avoiding this...just recognize that people get sick of me shitting on prospects. It's the nature of the beast.... odds are, any prospect you ask about isn't going to be successful as a big leaguer. In terms of Bergner, he's more an up and down arm that could see some time as a back end starter if he's effective when he gets an opportunity. There's enough there to turn over a lineup once if he gains consistency, but I wouldn't go much past that. It's hard to say how he'd play in shorter stints given the differences I'm usage these days, but that could be a viable backup option for him. Honesty is always the best policy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Every single fanbase overrates their prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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