mtutiger Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 37 minutes ago, casimir said: Semantics aside, I think there's a healthy fear for the upcoming election. I don't subscribe to the confidence bravado that others seem to have. I don't either, but I also don't think the group with confidence and bravado is particularly large.... conventional wisdom at the moment is that Trump would win if the election were held today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 2 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I don't either, but I also don't think the group with confidence and bravado is particularly large.... conventional wisdom at the moment is that Trump would win if the election were held today. I don't think that is conventional wisdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Just now, Motown Bombers said: I think this affected Biden most in Florida. You need a strong ground game in Miami if you're a Democrat. It was likely an across the board hit and probably mattered most in places with high minority areas... I only bring it up because I kind of hesitate to go full on "Trump only lost because of COVID" because, in this case, this is a clear advantage that Trump had *because* of COVID.... Biden's supporters and campaign were much more cautious due to restrictions, Trump's wasn't. And it wouldn't surprise me if part of the polling error that occured in 2020 could be accounted for from these differences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Just now, Motown Bombers said: I don't think that is conventional wisdom. Maybe my Twitter feed or real life interactions aren't representative, but at least in those interactions, it seems CW (at least as of today). Whether that holds in November or not is another matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Just now, mtutiger said: It was likely an across the board hit and probably mattered most in places with high minority areas... I only bring it up because I kind of hesitate to go full on "Trump only lost because of COVID" because, in this case, this is a clear advantage that Trump had *because* of COVID.... Biden's supporters and campaign were much more cautious due to restrictions, Trump's wasn't. And it wouldn't surprise me if part of the polling error that occured in 2020 could be accounted for from these differences. Trump's assault on mail in voting during a raging pandemic didn't help either. My position is Trump lost because of his response to COVID, not because of it. If he would've just acted like a normal politician or delegated it all to Pence, he probably wins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 a normal 0.0 WAR President would have won because of COVID. Trump is negative WAR because he's human garbage and all of his former advisors save 4 say so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: Maybe my Twitter feed or real life interactions aren't representative, but at least in those interactions, it seems CW (at least as of today). Whether that holds in November or not is another matter. Democrats have overperformed in every election since January 6th and polls have been shifting toward Biden despite the WSJ poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 49 minutes ago, 1776 said: The above pictures would have been the exact same regardless of who was in the Oval Office at the time. Supply chains froze due to mandated shut downs around the globe. Small world. We probably took the ugliest hit because our economy prior to this fiasco was doing very well. The shutdowns and locked doors on production facilities produced the pictures you’ve posted. It doesn't change the answer to the MAGA question. Were you better off 4 years ago? Also, many people say the Trump administration really messed up the covid response. As inept at Trump was, I have to agree with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Democrats have overperformed in every election since January 6th and polls have been shifting toward Biden despite the WSJ poll. For sure, there's still time until November and the aggregate has generally been moving in the correct direction. Whether it works out or not is to be seen, but Biden's theory of the campaign could be summed up by the old Wayne Gretzky quote, "I skate to where the puck is going, not to where it has been".... Polls and betting markets favor Trump now, but that may not always be the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 47 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: No way Hillary says COVID is a hoax, is just the flu, will be over by easter, suggests to take bleach, sells off stockpile of PPE to China, tells his supporters to liberate Michigan and sends a mob to Lansing, pitches unproven cures, and creates anti-vaxx with a large chunk of the country. More people died per capita in the US than many other industrialized countries. No things wouldn't have been the same. Trump also tried to save money by disbanding the CDC offices in China. An argument can be made that the pandemic may have been halted right then and there. But MAGA will just distort and distract whenever presented with actual facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said: Trump also tried to save money by disbanding the CDC offices in China. An argument can be made that the pandemic may have been halted right then and there. But MAGA will just distort and distract whenever presented with actual facts. Trump dismantled the US pandemic response even before COVID. Crisis are good for presidents. It was his opportunity to be a leader and he failed miserably. Bush rode 9/11 to re-election three years after it happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 5 minutes ago, mtutiger said: For sure, there's still time until November and the aggregate has generally been moving in the correct direction. Whether it works out or not is to be seen, but Biden's theory of the campaign could be summed up by the old Wayne Gretzky quote, "I skate to where the puck is going, not to where it has been".... Polls and betting markets favor Trump now, but that may not always be the case. Something tells me that Biden's internal polling tells him he is in better position since he's making a play for Florida and North Carolina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 In light of the Biden +10 poll that dropped today from an in-state pollster... Susquehanna had him +5 as well, both of which tell a much different story than national outlets polling PA. Interesting piece Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: Something tells me that Biden's internal polling tells him he is in better position since he's making a play for Florida and North Carolina. the events on the ground in those two states put them in play. The NC GOP nominated a card-carrying anti-semite. In Florida there is a puncher's chance because of the abortion bills. I was listening to Marc Caputo who writes the Magaville blog (have not read it but want to seek it out), that probably won't matter because Florida is a state that self-selects for selfish older white voters with limited education. While that is not the totality of the population growth it doesn't help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 38 minutes ago, 1776 said: Yes, the Border Bill was defeated because of Trump’s overbearing intimidation on the spineless GOP. Agreed. My point is, and I repeat, Biden has the authority to act to curb this fiasco. Executive orders are not foreign to Biden. They certainly were not foreign to Trump either. The voting population is, in my opinion, going to hold Biden accountable for not acting within his authority to address the border chaos. From the Kamala Harris border “czar” charade at the outset of his administration to the present day demonstrate, or at the very least, gives the impression, that Biden’s administration doesn’t give a crap. I firmly believe that this one issue is going to cost Biden. As 84 Echoes would say, just my two cents worth from the bleachers. Trump shut down the border. The courts ruled it illegal. Now MAGA wants Biden to do the same EO. These are actual facts that's MAGA conveniently forgot, or don't want to admit. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/judge-overturns-trump-border-rule-requiring-immigrants-first-claim-asylum-n1232629 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 3 minutes ago, romad1 said: the events on the ground in those two states put them in play. The NC GOP nominated a card-carrying anti-semite. In Florida there is a puncher's chance because of the abortion bills. I was listening to Marc Caputo who writes the Magaville blog (have not read it but want to seek it out), that probably won't matter because Florida is a state that self-selects for selfish older white voters with limited education. While that is not the totality of the population growth it doesn't help. Michigan and Florida were won by the same margins and people act like Florida is basically West Virginia and unattainable and Michigan is a toss up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 4 minutes ago, mtutiger said: In light of the Biden +10 poll that dropped today from an in-state pollster... Susquehanna had him +5 as well, both of which tell a much different story than national outlets polling PA. Interesting piece Quote The second reason why Trump may not be winning Pennsylvania has to do with who is answering polls. We suspect because Trump is the only candidate with “enthusiastic” voters, it’s Trump voters in particular who are disproportionately talking to pollsters. It’s the reverse of what happened in 2016, when the phenomenon of “shy” Trump voters meant that many pollsters undercounted Trump’s base of support. Many voters were afraid to admit they were Trumpers back then. Today, we suspect many pollsters are not adjusting their samples to account for this “non-response” bias, as it’s typically called. But SP&R is doing so. Quote It’s our belief that national pollsters polling Pennsylvania need to create hard and fast “area breaks” – groupings of interviews by county and media market – to measure Trump’s authentic support in the collar counties around Philadelphia and the other vastly different media markets of the Keystone State. There are six distinct media markets in Pennsylvania: Erie, Johnstown/Altoona, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg/Lancaster/York/Lebanon, Northeast/Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, and Philadelphia. Each has its own nuanced voting electorate and demographic makeup. Many pollsters are simply not doing this in their rush to track all battleground states in a condensed timetable. Area breaks help control the flow of interviews in these regions and can be invaluable in tracking who is winning and losing, especially in a state like Pennsylvania. The two most provocative quotes to me from the piece.... The second one is really interesting to me and it's completely plausible that the WSJ/Morning Consult types that field six swing state polls at a time are likely to miss the nuance of the electorate in each of these states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 10 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Trump dismantled the US pandemic response even before COVID. Crisis are good for presidents. It was his opportunity to be a leader and he failed miserably. Bush rode 9/11 to re-election three years after it happened. Exactly. And Obama left Trump a detailed book on how to respond to an outbreak. The Trump administration ignored it, probably in hopes of grifting tax dollars. Put absolutely nothing past that disgusting guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Michigan and Florida were won by the same margins and people act like Florida is basically West Virginia and unattainable and Michigan is a toss up. Michigan population is not undergoing rapid increase while reducing funds and interest in educational attainment. While Michigan has idiots, they are not rapidly self-selecting to live in a state that thrives on idiocracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 minute ago, romad1 said: Michigan population is not undergoing rapid increase while reducing funds and interest in educational attainment. While Michigan has idiots, they are not rapidly self-selecting to live in a state that thrives on idiocracy. There's a lot going for Democrats in Florida. Abortion will be on the ballot. Social Security and Medicare are on the ballot in the state that depends the most on them. Obamacare is on the ballot in a state that has the most Obamacare enrollees in the country. Democrats were also handicapped last election by COVID and didn't have a strong ground game in Miami where it is crucial to have a strong ground game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 13 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: There's a lot going for Democrats in Florida. Abortion will be on the ballot. Social Security and Medicare are on the ballot in the state that depends the most on them. Obamacare is on the ballot in a state that has the most Obamacare enrollees in the country. Democrats were also handicapped last election by COVID and didn't have a strong ground game in Miami where it is crucial to have a strong ground game. I welcome Biden spending time and money in Florida to take advantage of the situation. If he wins in Florida he changes the narrative. One very interesting element to Florida might be that Desantis doesn't do anything for Trump given all the insults. Imagine him planning revenge. Not sure that is a legit possibility because Desantis is just a finger-in-the-wind type. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Just now, romad1 said: I welcome Biden spending time and money in Florida to take advantage of the situation. If he wins in Florida he changes the narrative. One very interesting element to Florida might be that Desantis doesn't do anything for Trump given all the insults. Imagine him planning revenge. Not sure that is a legit possibility because Desantis is just a finger-in-the-wind type. There's also a senate election where the incumbent won by a tenth of percent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 23 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: Trump shut down the border. The courts ruled it illegal. Now MAGA wants Biden to do the same EO. These are actual facts that's MAGA conveniently forgot, or don't want to admit. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/judge-overturns-trump-border-rule-requiring-immigrants-first-claim-asylum-n1232629 My point again is that the perception/reality is that Biden is ignoring the border issues. That’s all that matters when voters make a choice on Election Day. They’re not going to care what courts ruled what. And it’s not just MAGA folks either. They see a president that appears to be just fine with the current state of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 4 minutes ago, 1776 said: My point again is that the perception/reality is that Biden is ignoring the border issues. That’s all that matters when voters make a choice on Election Day. The border is undoubtedly an area of weakness for Biden, but the idea that it's the only thing that will matter when voters make a choice on Election Day is not grounded in reality. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 42 minutes ago, romad1 said: …because Florida is a state that self-selects for selfish older white voters with limited education. Out of curiosity, do you want to expound on your point here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.