A Break. A Breather. A Respite, if you will. Where's your head at?

[Tiger337]

14 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Correct. 

When Al gets 11 years like Randy Smith, we'll talk then.

Smith only got 7 years.  They had a series of 1-2 year guys before that.  

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Smith only got 7 years.  They had a series of 1-2 year guys before that.  

Ahh, my bad, got the numbers mixed up.

[Motor City Sonics]

It's not just Al.  It's the whole thing.  Everyone needs to go. 

[Tigerbomb13]

 

[Tigerbomb13]

I’ve stopped caring about the team right now, which I think is worse than getting upset about them. 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Correct. 

When Al gets 11 years like Randy Smith, we'll talk then.

We laugh, but giving Al Avila 11 years just because Randy Smith got 11 years would be the definition of insanity.

EDIT: I didn't even both looking up how many years Randy Smith did get and then I saw the posts above. But now that Al has matched Randy at seven ...

Edited July 18, 2022 by chasfh

[oblong]

Here's the timeline:

Ilitch bought the team in August of 92.  From then you had a mess of Joe McDonald, Jerry Walker, and Joe Klein.  Then McHale brought in Randy Smith who was well thought of and came from a baseball family.

I actually don't think he hung on to Smith too long. The team came close to .500 after being decrepit for most of the 90's.  Randy was here for 6 full seasons, you give him a pass on the first few, then the team flirts with .500 in 2000.  After the lousy 2001 season Ilitch hires DD as President and CEO which we all knew meant he'd be GM at some point and sure enough a week into 2002 Smith is fired.  I think that's about right.  You should count the hiring of DD as Smith's axe.   Let DD see what he has to work with and let him make the call for his reasons.

[romad1]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

We laugh, but giving Al Avila 11 years just because Randy Smith got 11 years would be the definition of insanity.

I know we’ve all seen that Einstein quote about insanity being defined as repeating the same behavior over and over expecting different results.  

I think it’s actually defined as mental incapacity.  

Or if you like Insanity is the irrational belief that your team is due to be good because it’s exhausting to suck all the time 

Edited July 18, 2022 by romad1

[Tiger337]

I remember Smith as being worse than Avila because his drafts were awful and most of his trades seemed pointless.  

[oblong]

17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I remember Smith as being worse than Avila because his drafts were awful and most of his trades seemed pointless.  

Here's Smith's best picks by year

96 - Robert Fick

97 - nobody worth squat

98 - Jeff Weaver/Brandon Inge

99 -  Cody Ross/Jason Frasor

00 - Nook Logan 🙂

01 - Ryan Raburn

Now for 2002 it's up to you whether to give credit to Smith or DD as I think most of Smith's guys were still here:

2002 - Granderson/Zumaya

I'm only offering that up as information....

Smith also traded Cecil Fielder and Travis Fryman for Matt Drews, in two separate transactions.

 

 

[1984Echoes]

Yeah, that's why....

2003.

[SeattleMike]

7 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

We've reached the point of the season where we pause.    A pause interrupted by two games in Oakland this week.   Two games the Tigers won't win because they never win in Oakland.   

 

Where are you at this point? 

What is your mind set?  

 

Are you.........

Apoplectic.   You expected at least a .500 team this year 

Disappointed.  You knew they wouldn't be much better than 2021

Satisfied.  Few teams have had to deal with the incredible amount of injuries (some of them bizarre) this team has this season. 

Hopeful - Still a lot of youth that has to figure it out at this level and no way several guys have their worst year at the same time again. 

Hopeless - It's really bad and it's probably not getting better in the second half or 2023

 

I feel Apoplectic and Hopeless at this point.    And I'm just f**king sick of the suck in this town with ALL of our teams.   All four major pro teams are at the bottom of their sports.   I see hope for the other 3 teams.     The Wings had a surprising first half last year and totally crumbled in the second half.  New coach. More young talent coming.  Some decent free agents that should strengthen the depth.  The Yzer-plan.      Three straight great drafts for the Pistons now.  They have a very good young nucleus now.  This is the only way a non-glam city is going to have a chance in the star-oriented NBA where everyone wants to play in the pretty cities.   They also look like a group of team-oriented guys, which is the only way it's worked for us in the past in the NBA.   The Lions should be entertaining. No lack of energy on that team.  The coach is a goofball, but an entertaining one and his guys play for him.  What's wrong with trick plays. What's wrong with Tecmo Bowl playcalling.  If you're going to suck, at least be fun.  

The Tigers?  All the current cards in the deck have now been played.    No young star coming anymore.  They've all been here now and most of them have been very disappointing.   Probably not their fault, they were dropped into the middle of a disaster of a lineup.  Can't hide 'em.  We thoughy Green & Tork would be Lou & Alan and it's felt more like Kapler & Fick.   Hell, give me Granderson and Higgy and I'd be alright with it.    I know these 2 are better, but there is little support in the lineup.  The Castros aren't supposed to play every day but they're doing more than much of the rest of the lineup, and that ain't much.  Team just feels cursed.   The draft is now, the trade deadline in a couple of weeks.   I don't care about Chafin, he was a guy signed to be a chip, but Fulmer and Soto, I am very afraid at how badly Avila will screw these deals up.   Don't have to trade them Al.  If you don't get anything you want, just keep them.    I am hoping that after the trade deadline has passed, that Al will be let go.   If not then, then after the season ends.   If that doesn't happen my levels of anger and hopelessness will be as high as they were in the early 2000s.   Not excited for the return of Jake Rogers & Spencer Turnbull. Ryan Kreidler has come back to earth this year and Kerry Carpenter will probably do the same thing next year.

 

It's bad folks.........Really bad.  

 

This season has left me perplexed. The record is not a surprise at all, given the injuries to the pitching staff. What is a surprise is the central reason for the lousy record. I figured the offense, which was slightly below average last year, could move into the average range. When Avila traded for Meadows I thought the offense would be fairly tough, top to bottom. No superstars but no duds. That most of the offense is 20-40 percent worse than league average is head scratcher.

Anyway, before the season I expected 75-80 wins. That could still happen. Candy and Schoop could still get hot. Baddoo could as well. Tork could come back have a strong August and September. As could Greene. None of this is pie in the sky stuff. Usually there are a couple of guys overachieving whose regression oversets a few others who get hot. There is no one who screams regression at this point, at least on offense. The pitching is anyone's guess. Lots of regression possibilities there. But also some hope. Rodriguez? Manning? Bounceback from Skubal. Over the last 50 games the Tigers are 4 games under. Could play .505 baseball over the next 70 games? I think so. 

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

Here's Smith's best picks by year

96 - Robert Fick

97 - nobody worth squat

98 - Jeff Weaver/Brandon Inge

99 -  Cody Ross/Jason Frasor

00 - Nook Logan 🙂

01 - Ryan Raburn

Now for 2002 it's up to you whether to give credit to Smith or DD as I think most of Smith's guys were still here:

2002 - Granderson/Zumaya

I'm only offering that up as information....

Smith also traded Cecil Fielder and Travis Fryman for Matt Drews, in two separate transactions.

 

 

Dude traded for Brad Ausmus seven different times.  

[lordstanley]

Most depressing Tigers season I can remember. I really thought they’d take a step forward. And if you had told me the White Sox would only be .500 at the break, I’d figure the division would be up for grabs with the Tigers right in the mix. I do more than ever we have enough good young pitching, even if the exact combo isn’t Mize-Skubal-Manning. And impossible for the offense to be so bad next year, no matter who they throw out there. 

[sabretooth]

3 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

This season has left me perplexed. The record is not a surprise at all, given the injuries to the pitching staff. What is a surprise is the central reason for the lousy record. I figured the offense, which was slightly below average last year, could move into the average range. When Avila traded for Meadows I thought the offense would be fairly tough, top to bottom. No superstars but no duds. That most of the offense is 20-40 percent worse than league average is head scratcher.

Anyway, before the season I expected 75-80 wins. That could still happen. Candy and Schoop could still get hot. Baddoo could as well. Tork could come back have a strong August and September. As could Greene. None of this is pie in the sky stuff. Usually there are a couple of guys overachieving whose regression oversets a few others who get hot. There is no one who screams regression at this point, at least on offense. The pitching is anyone's guess. Lots of regression possibilities there. But also some hope. Rodriguez? Manning? Bounceback from Skubal. Over the last 50 games the Tigers are 4 games under. Could play .505 baseball over the next 70 games? I think so. 

Strangely enough, the offense has been about average for the last month, since June 18th, they have had a wRC+ of 97.  That's not good enough, but it's not as bad as it had been before.  It's been carried by about half of the offense:

- Haase has been Ruthian over that period (177 wRC+)

- Baez has been very good (126)

- Grossman (111) and Greene (107) have been above average. 

- Harold C has been at 103, and

- Victor has been at 89....below average, but not bad.

Sadly, the rest of the lineup has been a drag.  Candy, Schoop, Tork, Willi and Miggy have been between 71 - 84 for that period of time.  All of their OBP and SLG have been around or below 300, except for Willi and Schoop's SLG at 340.  

I don't think firing Coolbaugh will actually resolve the performance problems, but I certainly would not be opposed to it. 

[sabretooth]

The really distressing part is that now they have nothing but ashes in terms of starting pitching. 

Eduardo has to be gone.  They will hopefully spend some $$ from the savings of a settlement to replace him with a clearly above-average/top-line pitcher.

Healthy:

- Average or above average: Skubal, who could be above average, or even better, but seems more like Matt Boyd.

- Averages or below average: Garcia, Brieske, Pineda, Hutchison, Alexander (Pineda will be gone after this year, maybe 2 or 3 of them are effective as spot-starters/relievers.

Injured temporarily and potentially effective:

- Manning, Wentz, Faedo (I'm guessing maybe 1 or 2 of them wind up being decent or better)

TJ Surgery and previously average/above average:

- Turnbull and Mize (hopefully one comes back and is effective)

At least 3-4 years away from being effective at the ML level:

- Jobe (roll of the dice, maybe a 50-50 shot, but down the road)

So basically, if everything works out nominally, we could have the following rotation by 2023:

- Eduardo's replacement

- Skubal

- Manning, Wentz or Faedo (maybe 2?)

That still leaves 1 or 2 holes.

By 2024 maybe Turnbull or Mize fills one of them. 

By 2025 maybe Jobe is breaking in.

Blech.  2025 would mark the 10 year anniversary of Avila's ascension to GM, and right now we would be lucky to have had one or two average or better years of overall starting pitching for that whole period, unless Chris authorizes a big signing, or possibly two.

[Tiger337]

49 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Strangely enough, the offense has been about average for the last month, since June 18th, they have had a wRC+ of 97.  That's not good enough, but it's not as bad as it had been before.  It's been carried by about half of the offense:

 

If they had done that all year, they would be playing .500 ball (as their pitching has been average for the year).  

[sabretooth]

17 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If they had done that all year, they would be playing .500 ball (as their pitching has been average for the year).  

Yes....they have been playing around .500 ball since the 9/23 start (May 12th), even though their hitting has only been average-ish for the last month.

Edited July 19, 2022 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

I actually think they have overperformed as a team despite a ton of injuries and extremely poor hitting from a number of guys.

That is a credit to the miracle that AJ and Fetters have created with the bullpen.  We have always wanted a top-line bullpen, and now we have it.  We are overperforming our pythag by 4 games, which I credit to extremely deft handling of the bullpen. 

[gehringer_2]

8 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

And yes it's time to move on from AA. Move him upstairs make him an executive vp or something.

Seems like the obvious course. Al seems to have the right instincts, his execution has less than stellar. Let him task someone more able to do the things he has tried to do but not done well enough.

 

[LongLiveMaroth]

11 hours ago, sabretooth said:

So basically, if everything works out nominally, we could have the following rotation by 2023:

- Eduardo's replacement

- Skubal

- Manning, Wentz or Faedo (maybe 2?)

That still leaves 1 or 2 holes.

By 2024 maybe Turnbull or Mize fills one of them. 

Only thing I would say here is I would expect Turnbull to be in the rotation in 2023 as he has already began throwing from the mound. Will he be effective? Who knows but he will probably be on a inning limit. As for the other two holes Brieske will probably be one of those fillers. 

E-Rod's Replacement
Skubal
Brieske
Turnbull
Manning/Wentz/Faedo/Flores/Olson/Madden? 

As this year has taught us we can expect to probably dip into our minors to fill in some of the starts and we will probably sign someone similar to Pineda as well. 

[HeyAbbott]

I am incredibly disappointed in this season. I figured if all of the pieces from last year did their career averages, the new additions performed to their average performances and the pitching held up, I thought their was a good chance of being a slightly better than even chance of having a winning season. Granted the pitching injuries and the ST injury to Greene took a lot of win out of that proposition, but I still thought a 75 win season might be possible. The reality is that one would have to consider a 75 win season a success at this juncture. Worse than not winning, this team has not been entertaining.

The biggest puzzler is that the vets on this team are  hitting way below expectations. Of the 120 plus seasons this team will have completed in October, it looks like at best this team will be the third worst in Tiger's history, in either ops or runs scored per game. Offensively they are dead. Greene is what one would expect for a rookis. Tork needs his time in AAA, and who knows, maybe he never hits big league pitching.

What I am hoping for is some entertaining baseball for the remainder of the season. I am also looking for the organization to send a clear message that failure is not acceptable. There needs to be some clear personnel changes that send a message. It should be Al as it starts at the top.

[chasfh]

Believe it or not, we are in the middle of what could end up being the worst six-year stretch in the previously-storied history of the Detroit Tigers.

In the six seasons 2017 to 2022, so far, the overall record is 312-560, for a four-digit winning percentage of .3578. That is worse than even the 1998-2003 stretch, when the Tigers' record was 377-676, coming in at .3580. And unless I'm mistaken, 2022 was supposed to be in the middle of our window to contend after six years of tanking for draft picks and selling All-Stars for prospects. A team is not supposed to be challenging the 100-loss mark in Year Six of a rebuild. This organization is doing exactly that.

I believe both this version of ownership and this front office are simply incompetent, and as long as both remain in place as currently constructed, I have no reasonable hope for this franchise. I'll still root for the team because I'm a native and it's still my birthright, and I will savor whatever victories they achieve along the way. But I will expect nothing but losing until changes are made at the top.

[1984Echoes]

They're going to make the playoffs in 2023.

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

I am incredibly disappointed in this season. 

Such a Dad thing to say.