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09/21/2022 7:05 EDT Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles


casimir
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Don't look now, but since August 31, Javy Baez is slashing .352/.378/.563, good for a 169 wRC+ and enough to raise his season WAR by almost a full point.

How he got there is kind of interesting, though. He's still striking out a lot and not walking enough—he was in the bottom sixth for BB/K ratio of all 161 qualifiers during that time frame. He was still a groundball machine, although he did up his line drive game.  He crushed sliders better than 96% of other qualifiers, and clobbered curve balls, too. He had among the fewest soft hits, but he didn't hit the ball hard much, either. He still paced all qualifiers in chasing pitches and swinging and missing.

So how did he get so much production these past three weeks? How about a .468 BABIP?

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5 hours ago, chasfh said:

Don't look now, but since August 31, Javy Baez is slashing .352/.378/.563, good for a 169 wRC+ and enough to raise his season WAR by almost a full point.

How he got there is kind of interesting, though. He's still striking out a lot and not walking enough—he was in the bottom sixth for BB/K ratio of all 161 qualifiers during that time frame. He was still a groundball machine, although he did up his line drive game.  He crushed sliders better than 96% of other qualifiers, and clobbered curve balls, too. He had among the fewest soft hits, but he didn't hit the ball hard much, either. He still paced all qualifiers in chasing pitches and swinging and missing.

So how did he get so much production these past three weeks? How about a .468 BABIP?

Baez is definitely someone Harris would never sign so it will be interesting to see if Baez adjusts to Harris. I liked how Harris gave Javey high praise when that was pointed out so let's hope we can get a .280/.330/480 hitter with half the errors next year plus the added spectacular plays. That would equal El Mago. 

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After a bad post-ASB run, Baez is now right back to his career norms except for Hrs.

He has had almost exactly 1/10th of his career PAs since June 1st.

Career:

3793 PAs, 186 2b, 23 3b, 163 Hr, 182 Bb, 1088 K, .203 ISO, .330 BABIP, 261/303/465/768, 102 wRC+

6/1/2022 - 9/20/2022:

373 PAs, 18 2b, 4 3b, 11 Hr, 19 Bb, 95 K, .170 ISO, .327 BABIP, .261/303/431/734, 109 wRC+

Almost identical 1/10th on EVERY stat except Hrs.  He's right back to his career norms, except for Hrs.  As far as the Hrs, maybe it's the juiced ball, maybe it's CoPa?  But otherwise it's almost perfectly identical after his first two month mega-slump/adjustment.

More to the point, due to the overall slumping of offense across the league, he's picked up 7 points of OPS+ despite the drop in Hrs. 

Edited by sabretooth
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25 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Career:

3793 PAs, 186 2b, 23 3b, 163 Hr, 182 Bb, 1088 K, .203 ISO, .330 BABIP, 261/303/465/768, 102 wRC+

6/1/2022 - 9/20/2022:

373 PAs, 18 2b, 4 3b, 11 Hr, 19 Bb, 95 K, .170 ISO, .327 BABIP, .261/303/431/734, 109 wRC+

Pretty interesting.

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12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Manning living dangerously  in the first - Baddoo picks one off the wall for him.

The wall out there looks odd, but I think Detroit has been the beneficiary of it a few times already this series.

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Just now, casimir said:

The wall out there looks odd, but I think Detroit has been the beneficiary of it a few times already this series.

The part that doesn't work is that if the wall is going to be that far back, it should only be 8' so you could still get leaping plays in front of it, but it would have cost a lot more to lower the stands than to just take out a few rows of seats.

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Just now, gehringer_2 said:

The part that doesn't work is that if the wall is going to be that far back, it should only be 8' so you could still get leaping plays in front of it, but it would have cost a lot more to lower the stands than to just take out a few rows of seats.

Yes, further back and higher don't seem to jive.

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A prime Matt Joyce would be a great and doable outcome for him, that's 3-4 years of league average regular that plays close to everyday.  I could also see a better fielding Marcus Thames type career for him.  May not have Thames raw power but in game power is probably similar and he's not as much of a liability in the field. Thames had a 10 year career so if Carpenter could match that it would definitely be a success story. 

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5 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Baez is definitely someone Harris would never sign so it will be interesting to see if Baez adjusts to Harris. I liked how Harris gave Javey high praise when that was pointed out so let's hope we can get a .280/.330/480 hitter with half the errors next year plus the added spectacular plays. That would equal El Mago. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Harris tries to trade Baez, similar to how Dombrowski traded Prince for Kinsler.  Maybe not right away, but maybe next off-season after Baez regains some value.  

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Javy's K rate is the second lowest of his career, at 25.3%. Team average is 24.3,  league average is 21.9. It would be nice if he struck out less, that's true of everyone. But Javy's real productivity issue this year is not that he is K'ing more than his usual amount or even that much more than the rest of the team, it's his HR rate. His K's just look worse than other guys'.

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