03/30/2023 3:10pm EDT Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays

[roarintiger1]

Can this game be seen on the Bally sports site?  How can I watch it?  I would prefer to watch it on TV, but will settle for watching it on my computer if possible.  

I will be optimistic and say that the Tigers will win somewhere north of 79 games.

[chasfh]

I don’t know how much more of a drop-off Schoop can have from last year. A big one would put him in Christian Pache territory and have the Tigers considering DFA’ing him after all. I think he rebounds to at least halfway back to average, which still isn’t good, but possible.

I’m thinking TORK! will have a good season and, bold prediction, Riley has a legit All-Star year. They will be two highlights. Javy will be MVP-level for 300 at bats, Schoop-level for 200 more, and somewhere in the middle otherwise, so he’ll be a net gain. Haase may drop some, but Jake will be a big gain over Tucker. One of Maton/Vierling will surprise with a good year while the other one struggles. Carpenter’s bat will keep him the job all year. Austin Meadows is the only one I’m not sure will recover. He hasn’t been good at all this spring (still no homers!) and I’m betting on a hunch he will see significant IL time, but we have more OF options than before to cover him. Miggy will be ziggy.

The pitching is a complete wild card to me. Fetter’s work with the bullpen last year was outstanding, but. Can’t be sure it wasn’t lightning in a bottle, and this corps looks more tattered. The rotation could go either way, too, although it’s hard for me to see how it could be worse, since all that’s really different is we won’t have a half season of Skubal this year. The pitching, I think, is what could make the difference between us pushing 80 wins and pushing 100 losses.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Not surprised.  Logically it doesn’t make sense to you.  

We see illogical events happen all the time in the world and many smart people still can’t accept the possibility that something that shouldn’t happen does either through circumstance, luck, anomaly, or maybe something that can’t be explained.   
 

 

All true.

But in terms of making predictions, using logic makes sense.

[Motor City Sonics]

10 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

We survivors of 2003 have nothing but hope for this 2023 roster. It could be worse.

2019 too.  That team may have been worse than 2003.     On baseball reference the Pythagorean W/L for both teams was 49-113,  the 2003 Tigers had a RF/RA of 591/928  and 2019 Tigers were 582/915.    It's a toss-up.   Has any other fanbases had two teams that miserable in one generation?  

[Hongbit]

12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

All true.

But in terms of making predictions, using logic makes sense.

I think this is probably a 65-70 win roster that unfortunately has a bunch of things go all wrong for them.    

I am definitely in the minority but I’m very meh on Vierling, Maton, and Meadows.  While it would be tremendously disappointing, I’m not so sure they won’t be worse than Hittin’ Harold & The Castraii. 

Look, i’m absolutely not one of the posters that has to be right about everything and is constantly bringing it up trying to pat themselves on the back about some long ago prediction.   I am ok being totally wrong about this one.  I want to be wrong.   Big wrong.   It’s just my gut feeling about this team.   I also think the absolute train wreck of our other pro teams has probably subconsciously played a role in my thoughts.  

Edited March 30, 2023 by Hongbit

[Motor City Sonics]

25 minutes ago, roarintiger1 said:

Can this game be seen on the Bally sports site?  How can I watch it?  I would prefer to watch it on TV, but will settle for watching it on my computer if possible.  

I will be optimistic and say that the Tigers will win somewhere north of 79 games.

I signed up for the monthly version this morning.   I sure hope the app is kinder to me than it was last year because I had tonnes of issues having it work with my Amazon Fire Stick.    It was extremely frustrating and I quit mid-season.    I should be able to at least watch on my computer and I can always take my laptop and plug it into the telly.   

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by Motor City Sonics

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I think this is probably a 65-70 win roster that unfortunately has a bunch of things go all wrong for them.    

I am definitely in the minority but I’m very meh on Vierling, Maton, and Meadows.  While it would be tremendously disappointing, I’m not so sure they won’t be worse than Hittin’ Harold & The Castraii. 

Look, i’m absolutely not one of the posters that has to be right about everything and is constantly bringing it up trying to pat themselves on the back about some long ago prediction.   I am ok being totally wrong about this one.  I want to be wrong.   Big wrong.   It’s just my gut feeling about this team.   I also think the absolute train wreck of our other pro teams has probably subconsciously played a role in my thoughts.  

We just disagree here.... Maton, in particular, seems very likely to exceed anything a Castro would do, but the other players you mentioned are better as well. They play better defense, they can take a walk, they do a bunch of the smaller things right and that stuff adds up.

I wouldn't rule out any outcome because of the illogic of life and how teams can have differing amounts of luck during the year, injuries, etc. But predictions are made on paper, and this team on paper looks to have a range of 68 to 75 imo

[1984Echoes]

12 hours ago, chasfh said:

I said in another thread that we’ll be north of 75 wins, and I’m gonna stick with that.

I went with .500 early on and I'm still going to stick with that...

But 75-ish wins, plus or minus a few... is probably a lot more realistic. I'd be extremely pleased if we got to 75 or better as, IMO, quite a lot of things would have to go right for us to hit that mark.

[chasfh]

44 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

2019 too.  That team may have been worse than 2003.     On baseball reference the Pythagorean W/L for both teams was 49-113,  the 2003 Tigers had a RF/RA of 591/928  and 2019 Tigers were 582/915.    It's a toss-up.   Has any other fanbases had two teams that miserable in one generation?  

The one thing from 2003 I really liked is how we won five of our last six to keep from breaking the 1962 losses record. God, what an organizational albatross that would have been.

[mtutiger]

50 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t know how much more of a drop-off Schoop can have from last year. A big one would put him in Christian Pache territory and have the Tigers considering DFA’ing him after all. I think he rebounds to at least halfway back to average, which still isn’t good, but possible.

No joke.... if Schoop drops off more, he'll be gone within weeks.

[mtutiger]

I am genuinely interested in the bullpen and how it does.... tbh, there was much of the same concern going into last season about the quality of the bullpen. Soto, Fulmer and Chafin were seen as solid, probably more than what they have now, but the rest of it was very much seen as questionable; Foley and Vest were still seen as unknown quantities, they had AAAA chaff Jacob Barnes on the Opening Day roster and Elvin "Gas Can" Rodriguez as well. And they managed to be OK, which is a credit to Fetter and staff but also a statement to the variability of relief pitching as well.

I don't know that the group will be as good this time around, but I do think their pen was so good last year that we forget how little confidence there was in the group going into last season as well.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

All true.

But in terms of making predictions, using logic makes more sense than choosing an anomaly or illogic.

FTFY.

(PS: maybe everything blows up all to hell this year and we drop to 58-ish wins. But that's predicting absolutely everything to go bad that could possibly go bad, worse than even last year in which this did occur; and is a definite ANOMALY prediction and not a "logical" expected outcome...)

 

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[Motor City Sonics]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I am genuinely interested in the bullpen and how it does.... tbh, there was much of the same concern going into last season about the quality of the bullpen. Soto, Fulmer and Chafin were seen as solid, probably more than what they have now, but the rest of it was very much seen as questionable; Foley and Vest were still seen as unknown quantities, they had AAAA chaff Jacob Barnes on the Opening Day roster and Elvin "Gas Can" Rodriguez as well. And they managed to be OK, which is a credit to Fetter and staff but also a statement to the variability of relief pitching as well.

I don't know that the group will be as good this time around, but I do think their pen was so good last year that we forget how little confidence there was in the group going into last season as well.

Just in a place where they have a bunch of arms healing or a year or two away..........Hopefully they can get by.   

I sure hope their new training staff/approach is better. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

Not surprised.  Logically it doesn’t make sense to you.  

We see illogical events happen all the time in the world and many smart people still can’t accept the possibility that something that shouldn’t happen does either through circumstance, luck, anomaly, or maybe something that can’t be explained.   
 

 

That's after the fact though.  A sensible projection assumes that crazy stuff isn't going to happen and that players will perform somewhat in line with their past performance.  In doing that, you are more likely to be correct than by making a wild ass prediction based on emotion.  A wild prediction can be fun, but it's not an argument.  If someone can explain why he or she thinks the Tigers will only win 58 games, it might might be a valid argument.  

[Tigeraholic1]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Why do they need tomorrow off.  They're playing in a dome !

Agreed, we are not helping our selves to get into rhythm. Three days off after ST then one on one off. We need all the momentum we can get! 

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That's after the fact though.  A sensible projection assumes that crazy stuff isn't going to happen and that players will perform somewhat in line with their past performance.  In doing that, you are more likely to be correct than by making a wild ass prediction based on emotion.  A wild prediction can be fun, but it's not an argument.  If someone can explain why he or she thinks the Tigers will only win 58 games, it might might be a valid argument.  

of course when you are playing so many guys with little or no track record or who are still moving targets on their development curves, the predictive strength of whatever passes as past performance suffers. A young team like the Tigers will usually be bad, but does have more 'surprise' potential than team full of veterans.

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

of course when you are playing so many guys with little or no track record or who are still moving targets on their development curves, the predictive strength of whatever passes as past performance suffers. A young team like the Tigers will usually be bad, but does have more 'surprise' potential than team full of veterans.

This is true.  Projection systems rarely assume that young players will break out, so I think they are more likely to underestimate than overestimate there. 

Conversely, bad teams are likely to lose some veterans after the trade deadline which I don't think projections take into account.  

Another mostly unrelated thing I have often wondered about projections is that they almost never project anyone to have a great season because they push everyone towards the mean.  This makes them more likely to be right on average.  However, I wonder if maybe the projection systems work better for average players than they do for players at the extremes.  There are more people in the middle, so there is more certainty in projections. There are so few great players that I think it's harder to get them right.  

[Motor City Sonics]

12 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Agreed, we are not helping our selves to get into rhythm. Three days off after ST then one on one off. We need all the momentum we can get! 

I understand that around the league they have the cushion day (and it looks like a lot of severe storms in the middle 3rd of the country.   I also know that it would suck to see everyone start today and then we don't until tomorrow, so that is how it works since it HAS to be a 3-game series.     Couldn't be a 4-game series with a 2-game trip later in the year?     The least of the issues I have with Rob Manfred.    The league is close to perfection on the starting locations for March, only having two northern games in Boston and New York.     High of 41 in Boston (while it will be 52 in their opponents home town of Baltimore).  Yankees playing the Giants.  46 in NYC today,  while it's 54 in SF.   I don't get that whole playing northern games in March thing.   Although it will probably feel colder in SF with that wind. 

[RedRamage]

1 hour ago, roarintiger1 said:

Can this game be seen on the Bally sports site?  How can I watch it?  I would prefer to watch it on TV, but will settle for watching it on my computer if possible.  

I will be optimistic and say that the Tigers will win somewhere north of 79 games.

If you purchase their plan then sure... you can watch it on their site.  Otherwise if you have Bally Sports with your TV package you should be able to sign-in through your TV provider and watch it.  If not, then you're out of luck for ways to watch it legally.

[Motor City Sonics]

3 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

If you purchase their plan then sure... you can watch it on their site.  Otherwise if you have Bally Sports with your TV package you should be able to sign-in through your TV provider and watch it.  If not, then you're out of luck for ways to watch it legally.

You can sign up for their app and have the app linked to your Fire Stick (or whatever you use) and I did that for a little while last year, but there were a tonne of problems trying to get the password to work.  Just made me angry.    I am guessing that if you sign up online you should be able to log in through a device, but if you can't, it might be an indication of why they failed.  

[Hongbit]

43 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

  If someone can explain why he or she thinks the Tigers will only win 58 games, it might might be a valid argument.  

I did. 

I said injuries will hit and be bad.  I included Greene as one of those.  I said the bullpen will be really bad.   There’s very little track record of success there and maybe last years success in a similar situation was the anomaly.  I said Maton, Vierling, and Meadows will all be failed projects.   Schoop and Haase will disappoint.    Baez and Tork won’t have significant lift to improve the team.   I also think they get off to a very slow start and that makes it tough to build confidence right

Maybe (and hopefully) none of this happens and they play closer to 75 or maybe even 80 than they do 60.    Who knows but that’s how I’m looking at things now and that was the rationale on my mind when I predicted they only 56.  

[mtutiger]

It's kinda hard to predict injuries and who, exactly, they will hit.

[Hongbit]

Just now, mtutiger said:

It's kinda hard to predict injuries and who, exactly, they will hit.

Agree.   Greene was the only one I listed because he’s our future and this franchise can’t seem to have nice things.  

 I’m not pounding the table saying you guys are wrong and I’m right.   I think the possibility of this team being not quite historically bad but in the neighborhood is definitely there and that’s the vibe I’m getting now.  

[Tigeraholic1]

2 hours ago, roarintiger1 said:

Can this game be seen on the Bally sports site?  How can I watch it?  I would prefer to watch it on TV, but will settle for watching it on my computer if possible.  

I will be optimistic and say that the Tigers will win somewhere north of 79 games.

It all depends on your zip code. I live in Indiana and my zip gets me the games. A county south of me is blacked out and is considered Chicago White Sox territory.

[mtutiger]