Pistons Offseason - 2023

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

The video showing the full game.  It should start a few seconds before the game begins.

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Deleterious

[Deleterious]

I imagine it will be Ausar (and Amen) heavy.

 

[Deleterious]

Why Pistons rookie Ausar Thompson could be a starter on Day 1

[Betrayer]

I could see them pushing harder to made the Bogie trade if they feel Ausar is ready to start.

[casimir]

3 hours ago, Betrayer said:

I could see them pushing harder to made the Bogie trade if they feel Ausar is ready to start.

With Harris as a legit 3 point shooter off of the bench, that probably makes sense for the position.  I guess the question is will there be enough outside shooting on the team to keep teams honest enough from collapsing inside the arc.

[Betrayer]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

With Harris as a legit 3 point shooter off of the bench, that probably makes sense for the position.  I guess the question is will there be enough outside shooting on the team to keep teams honest enough from collapsing inside the arc.

I think between Harris and Livers, it'll be good enough. Bogie has more in his offensive bag than those two, but we don't need that usage from him this year. If we're just relegating him to spot up 3 point duty, I'd rather have someone out there who can play better defense and move Bogie while his value is at its highest.

We were second worst in the league on defense and somewhere around 20th on offense. Having Cade and Morris at PG instead of Killian and CoJo will help the offense immensely, but we aren't winning many games allowing 118 ppg and we aren't fixing that with Bogie playing Forward 30 minutes a night.

I think we could see lineups with Ausar at the 4, especially if they run any smallish lineups with Stew at the 5. If Stew's shot is legitimate (around 35%) that would leave Ausar as the only non-shooter and he could play the role they used for Hami last year when they finally figured out that he works his best magic in the dunker spot and cutting. Ausar is taller, longer, more equipped to guard most 4s, better with the ball, and a better rebounder than Hami. Could be a nice way to ease him into the lineup as his shot comes along.

I realize I'm discounting Bagley and Wiseman at the 4, but that's because I don't want to see it. Ever. In fact, I hope they trade one of them before camp and bring in someone like McGee (unfortunately, he just went to SAC) who can be the veteran bench big we thought Noel would be for us last year.

[buddha]

16 minutes ago, Betrayer said:

I think between Harris and Livers, it'll be good enough. Bogie has more in his offensive bag than those two, but we don't need that usage from him this year. If we're just relegating him to spot up 3 point duty, I'd rather have someone out there who can play better defense and move Bogie while his value is at its highest.

We were second worst in the league on defense and somewhere around 20th on offense. Having Cade and Morris at PG instead of Killian and CoJo will help the offense immensely, but we aren't winning many games allowing 118 ppg and we aren't fixing that with Bogie playing Forward 30 minutes a night.

I think we could see lineups with Ausar at the 4, especially if they run any smallish lineups with Stew at the 5. If Stew's shot is legitimate (around 35%) that would leave Ausar as the only non-shooter and he could play the role they used for Hami last year when they finally figured out that he works his best magic in the dunker spot and cutting. Ausar is taller, longer, more equipped to guard most 4s, better with the ball, and a better rebounder than Hami. Could be a nice way to ease him into the lineup as his shot comes along.

I realize I'm discounting Bagley and Wiseman at the 4, but that's because I don't want to see it. Ever. In fact, I hope they trade one of them before camp and bring in someone like McGee (unfortunately, he just went to SAC) who can be the veteran bench big we thought Noel would be for us last year.

honest question: what would you give the pistons for wiseman or bagley?

i also wonder if harris really has a role in the league anymore.  he may be an injury/cut guy.

[buddha]

i'll believe livers is a bona fide nba player when i see him play a meaningful stretch of games without getting injured.  i like him, but i havent seen a whole lot yet.  even when he is healthy.

[Deleterious]

Ugh.  He grew up in the Dallas area so I will allow it.  I believe he also grew up with Jerry Jones grandson.  I seem to remember reading that Cade attended some training camps as a kid.

[casimir]

3 hours ago, Betrayer said:

I think between Harris and Livers, it'll be good enough. Bogie has more in his offensive bag than those two, but we don't need that usage from him this year. If we're just relegating him to spot up 3 point duty, I'd rather have someone out there who can play better defense and move Bogie while his value is at its highest.

We were second worst in the league on defense and somewhere around 20th on offense. Having Cade and Morris at PG instead of Killian and CoJo will help the offense immensely, but we aren't winning many games allowing 118 ppg and we aren't fixing that with Bogie playing Forward 30 minutes a night.

I think we could see lineups with Ausar at the 4, especially if they run any smallish lineups with Stew at the 5. If Stew's shot is legitimate (around 35%) that would leave Ausar as the only non-shooter and he could play the role they used for Hami last year when they finally figured out that he works his best magic in the dunker spot and cutting. Ausar is taller, longer, more equipped to guard most 4s, better with the ball, and a better rebounder than Hami. Could be a nice way to ease him into the lineup as his shot comes along.

I realize I'm discounting Bagley and Wiseman at the 4, but that's because I don't want to see it. Ever. In fact, I hope they trade one of them before camp and bring in someone like McGee (unfortunately, he just went to SAC) who can be the veteran bench big we thought Noel would be for us last year.

I didn’t mean to infer Bogdanovich as a spot up shooter.  I agree with you that his offensive workload should drop this season (if he sticks around).

I wonder if they could move he and Bagley for something of use?

[Betrayer]

18 hours ago, buddha said:

honest question: what would you give the pistons for wiseman or bagley?

i also wonder if harris really has a role in the league anymore.  he may be an injury/cut guy.

Bagley/Wiseman

There are a few options. You could package one of them with Bogie (although I'm saving that honor for Killian) for a solid return. Alternatively, if you want to sell them solo you could get a 2nd rounder and/or another project player at a position of need (SF/PF). There are always teams that need a big and Bagley has shown he can put the ball in the hoop in a bench scoring role.

Either player is an 'ok' to 'solid' backup big, but you can't have both of them on your team needing minutes when your starting big is also 19 years old and needs 30+ minutes a game too. That makes you do stupid things like trying to play one of them at PF next to another one of them. No. No. No.

Harris

I've heard a number of people say that Harris is probably washed, and I'm not sure why. Sure, he's overpaid. No, he's not a starter anymore. But that's a far cry from being outright cut by the worst team in the league.

Last year was his first year back from injury on a team that was an absolute mess. He still shot 43% from three and had a 61.8% eFG. His defense is average to poor, but the defensive numbers are still better than 90% of the Pistons players from last year and it's clearly better than Bogie's. If I trade Bogie, I just need a guy who can come in and give me 18 minutes per night shooting 40% from three - he can do that.

As to Livers, I need to see him stay healthy. Theoretically, he does exactly what you need from a role player - shoot and play good team defense. I like his contribution when he's on the court. Doesn't get in the way, shoots it pretty well, makes smart plays, and plays solid defense. Health is the question.

Either way, Bogie is coming off the best season of his career, his usage is going down this year, and he's not a part of the future. Smart asset management means selling high. I'm ok with rolling the dice on a combination of Harris and Livers to replace most of Bogie's minutes if Ausar comes to camp looking like a "must play".

[NYLion]

On 9/12/2023 at 5:05 PM, Betrayer said:

I think between Harris and Livers, it'll be good enough. Bogie has more in his offensive bag than those two, but we don't need that usage from him this year. If we're just relegating him to spot up 3 point duty, I'd rather have someone out there who can play better defense and move Bogie while his value is at its highest.

We were second worst in the league on defense and somewhere around 20th on offense. Having Cade and Morris at PG instead of Killian and CoJo will help the offense immensely, but we aren't winning many games allowing 118 ppg and we aren't fixing that with Bogie playing Forward 30 minutes a night.

I think we could see lineups with Ausar at the 4, especially if they run any smallish lineups with Stew at the 5. If Stew's shot is legitimate (around 35%) that would leave Ausar as the only non-shooter and he could play the role they used for Hami last year when they finally figured out that he works his best magic in the dunker spot and cutting. Ausar is taller, longer, more equipped to guard most 4s, better with the ball, and a better rebounder than Hami. Could be a nice way to ease him into the lineup as his shot comes along.

I realize I'm discounting Bagley and Wiseman at the 4, but that's because I don't want to see it. Ever. In fact, I hope they trade one of them before camp and bring in someone like McGee (unfortunately, he just went to SAC) who can be the veteran bench big we thought Noel would be for us last year.

You have to have shooting in the NBA nowadays. If Bogey is gone and Ausar is starting, who can shoot out of Cade, Ivey, Ausar, Stewart and Duren?  I think Cade out of all of them has the ability/shooting stroke to become an above average shooter but until he does, it's a question. With that lineup, teams will just pack the paint and force Piston misses.

At least for now, until some of the young guys grow into the role, they need Bogey in the starting lineup if they want to have a more balanced lineup. Granted, he gives away a lot defensively but scoring is king in the NBA and he does it better than anybody on the Pistons outside of maybe Cade.

All of this is why I questioned the Ivey fit. Ivey obviously is a great talent and you should almost always take talent over fit but I wonder how Mathurin or Sharpe would have fit that bring more of an off ball, shooting presence that I think fits much better with Cade and Ausar for that matter. Ivey just seems like a square peg in a round hole in this lineup.

Edited September 14, 2023 by NYLion

[Deleterious]

If Williams is going to preach defense, I don't know how you start Bogey.

[Betrayer]

1 hour ago, NYLion said:

You have to have shooting in the NBA nowadays. If Bogey is gone and Ausar is starting, who can shoot out of Cade, Ivey, Ausar, Stewart and Duren?  I think Cade out of all of them has the ability/shooting stroke to become an above average shooter but until he does, it's a question. With that lineup, teams will just pack the paint and force Piston misses.

At least for now, until some of the young guys grow into the role, they need Bogey in the starting lineup if they want to have a more balanced lineup. Granted, he gives away a lot defensively but scoring is king in the NBA and he does it better than anybody on the Pistons outside of maybe Cade.

All of this is why I questioned the Ivey fit. Ivey obviously is a great talent and you should almost always take talent over fit but I wonder how Mathurin or Sharpe would have fit that bring more of an off ball, shooting presence that I think fits much better with Cade and Ausar for that matter. Ivey just seems like a square peg in a round hole in this lineup.

Defense vs Shooting

Troy said it best. "You can't shoot your way to the top in the NBA. It starts with defense." People love to talk about Golden State, but even with two of the best shooters of all time, we always forget just how good the defense was on those championship teams.

That said, my point is not to forsake shooting. What I'm saying is that a combination of Livers and Harris can give you Bogie's 30 minutes per night and replace him as a catch and shoot player. The shooting balances out and you'll gain defense. That's a net positive already and on top of that you gain assets (or another player) from trading a guy who doesn't factor into this team's future and whose usage/value are only going down from their current high point of his career.

As for the Ivey comments...

First, Ivey had a better 3P% than Mathurin last year (34.3% vs 32.3%). He did that while being the primary offensive initiator playing with G-League players who didn't need to be guarded, while Mathurin was fed off-ball shots.

Second, Ivey was in the 88th percentile on catch and shoot threes. That means he was excellent as an off-ball shooter and he figures to get a lot more of those opportunities this year with Cade's return.

Third, Ivey showed notable improvement in shooting (and multiple other areas) as the season went on, whereas Mathurin regressed, shooting just 22% from three in his last 10 games.

I'll grant you that Sharpe had a better stroke than Ivey last year (36%), but again, he got spoon fed open looks whereas Ivey shouldered the load on a team where practically nobody else had to be guarded.

With a year in the books Ivey looks like the best off-ball shooter in this young core, so we can probably drop the outdated pre-draft misconception that the catch-and-shoot 3-ball is going to be one of his issues in the league.

Ivey's problems are on the other end of the court, and those struggles simply add to the case that we can't have two guys that don't play defense in the starting lineup. If Troy values defense as much as he claims, then it's a no-brainer to move Bogie while his value is high and work to change the defensive culture of this team.

 

[NYLion]

23 hours ago, Betrayer said:

Defense vs Shooting

Troy said it best. "You can't shoot your way to the top in the NBA. It starts with defense." People love to talk about Golden State, but even with two of the best shooters of all time, we always forget just how good the defense was on those championship teams.

That said, my point is not to forsake shooting. What I'm saying is that a combination of Livers and Harris can give you Bogie's 30 minutes per night and replace him as a catch and shoot player. The shooting balances out and you'll gain defense. That's a net positive already and on top of that you gain assets (or another player) from trading a guy who doesn't factor into this team's future and whose usage/value are only going down from their current high point of his career.

As for the Ivey comments...

First, Ivey had a better 3P% than Mathurin last year (34.3% vs 32.3%). He did that while being the primary offensive initiator playing with G-League players who didn't need to be guarded, while Mathurin was fed off-ball shots.

Second, Ivey was in the 88th percentile on catch and shoot threes. That means he was excellent as an off-ball shooter and he figures to get a lot more of those opportunities this year with Cade's return.

Third, Ivey showed notable improvement in shooting (and multiple other areas) as the season went on, whereas Mathurin regressed, shooting just 22% from three in his last 10 games.

I'll grant you that Sharpe had a better stroke than Ivey last year (36%), but again, he got spoon fed open looks whereas Ivey shouldered the load on a team where practically nobody else had to be guarded.

With a year in the books Ivey looks like the best off-ball shooter in this young core, so we can probably drop the outdated pre-draft misconception that the catch-and-shoot 3-ball is going to be one of his issues in the league.

Ivey's problems are on the other end of the court, and those struggles simply add to the case that we can't have two guys that don't play defense in the starting lineup. If Troy values defense as much as he claims, then it's a no-brainer to move Bogie while his value is high and work to change the defensive culture of this team.

 

Livers is a bench player at best and could be out of the league in a few years, I'm not sure why some are enamored with him. I thought he might take a step last season especially with the lineup being easy to crack and I actually think he regressed a bit. Harris I might give you but he's even slower than Bogey and has defense has cratered hugely over the last few years due to the injuries taking a toll. Bogey also supplies more versatile scoring. I'm not adverse to trading him at some point but to start the season, I think they need him if they want to win games. 

As far as Ivey is concerned, I was happy with the pick because of his talent but I was always concerned with the fit. Ivey shot better than Mathurin last year but Mathurin has historically been the better shooter. I know we're comparing college and pros but Ivey's shot just screams inconsistency over the course of his career with that high floating shot.

Regardless, I'm looking at it from purely a fit perspective. I want Cade to be the lead dog, the lead ballhandler so I don't see Ivey as a great fit in a secondary ballhandling role playing off of a primary ballhandler. In fact, Ivey thrived last season when he took over primary ballhandling which won't be his role here going forward unless Cade continues to get injured. I'm just not sure how he'll handle being a secondary guy not only in terms of playstyle but mentally, I could see him getting pouty. Mathurin and Sharpe are more natural shooting guards, off ball guards, so I see better fits with them alongside Cade and Ausar long term. I'd love to be wrong but I think it could get messy with Cade and Ivey on the court at the same time.

Edited September 15, 2023 by NYLion

[Betrayer]

17 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Livers is a bench player at best and could be out of the league in a few years, I'm not sure why some are enamored with him. I thought he might take a step last season especially with the lineup being easy to crack and I actually think he regressed a bit. Harris I might give you but he's even slower than Bogey and has defense has cratered hugely over the last few years due to the injuries taking a toll. Bogey also supplies more versatile scoring. I'm not adverse to trading him at some point but to start the season, I think they need him if they want to win games. 

As far as Ivey is concerned, I was happy with the pick because of his talent but I was always concerned with the fit. Ivey shot better than Mathurin last year but Mathurin has historically been the better shooter. I know we're comparing college and pros but Ivey's shot just screams inconsistency over the course of his career with that high floating shot.

Regardless, I'm looking at it from purely a fit perspective. I want Cade to be the lead dog, the lead ballhandler so I don't see Ivey as a great fit in a secondary ballhandling role playing off of a primary ballhandler. In fact, Ivey thrived last season when he took over primary ballhandling which won't be his role here going forward unless Cade continues to get injured. I'm just not sure how he'll handle being a secondary guy not only in terms of playstyle but mentally, I could see him getting pouty. Mathurin and Sharpe are more natural shooting guards, off ball guards, so I see better fits with them alongside Cade and Ausar long term. I'd love to be wrong but I think it could get messy with Cade and Ivey on the court at the same time.

I don't think people are enamored with Livers so much as they are with the archetype he represents - a 3 and D player with positional versatility. I don't need Bogey's scoring versatility with Cade, Ivey, Morris (and even Ausar) handling the ball. In fact, some of Bogey's worst moments were those 4th quarter iso-ball situations. What I need is better defense around my core players and Bogey's simple catch and shoot ability. That's why people like Liver's archetype. If not him, then maybe someone we get back in the Bogey trade (or a different trade to balance this roster, considering how many expirings we've collected). It's not about the specific player, more about the archetype and the fact that you aren't winning games with a Ivey + Bogey combo that gave up 123 ppg when they were on the court together last year. That, and the fact that Bogey's value won't ever be higher than it is today makes trading him now the right move.

As for Ivey, I think being off-ball will help him a ton this year. He's going to get easier shots when Cade's on the court and secondary ball-handling duties when the defense has already been bent or in transition. I could very easily see him being this team's leading scorer with Cade as the cerebral leader (like a Hamilton and Billups combo).

 

[Deleterious]

Game 5 of the Portland series is on NBATV right now.

[1984Echoes]

And now: NBATV at 3PM has game 5 2004, Lakers at Pistons, followed by the Pistons beating Michael Jordan in Game 6, 1989 to get into the Finals.

[Deleterious]

 

[Betrayer]

He's after Klay's roster spot.

[casimir]

Meanwhile, at my alma mater...

St. Francis students fired up after Detroit Pistons Xtreme Team’s “smashing” pep rally performance
 

[Deleterious]

Draftkings has the win totals up.  You can pick different totals for different odds.  But the -110 bet is 28.5.  

Over 31.5 is +190.  Sorta kinda maybe not tempting.  

[RandyMarsh]

I don't think I could bet anything big on the Pistons cause I think it's just too hard to quantify the difference a healthy and hopefully improved Cade will have on the team along with a new coaching staff.

Could it be 5 wins?, 10? Or even 15? Hell maybe none at all. Its just too big of unknown for me to put any substantial amount of money on. 

[Betrayer]

Whenever I wonder how much the team will improve this year I have to remind myself that we're replacing Killian Hayes and CoJo with Cade Cunningham and Monte Morris. Just let that settle in.

Killian played 8000 minutes and was one of the worst players in the league by a wide margin. CoJo is a bottom third of the league backup.

They also sat or benched Bogie, Stewart, and even Duren for long stretches to end the season last year while rolling out G-League lineups with guys like Omaruyi, Hampton, Rhoden, and McGruder.

Not saying they're going to win 35, just that we can't really think of them in terms of their win total from last year when we consider the injuries and intentional tanking they did.