Investing

[gehringer_2]

31 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I used  FORTRAN 77

 

wow, this strains the memory. My freshman programming class would have been '72. I think FORTRAN 4 running on IBM 360's.  But as I think about it, University of Waterloo had put our their own compiler which they somewhat jokingly called WATFIVE which is what our stuff actually ran on at UM. I don't remember that any structured programming capability was there at all yet, just GOTO's and labels - or maybe they just didn't teach us any!

I've been told by older IT alums that UM was a missed opportunity for IT tech development in the midwest. They were in a position to build one of first great CS departments in the late 60's - in the forefront with a lot of advanced hardware development like multiplexed 360/70 systems and even had an early Amdahl. But at some point they stopped putting resources into it and so their talent got frustrated and went to CA.

[pfife]

9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

wow, this strains the memory. My freshman programming class would have been '72. I think FORTRAN 4 running on IBM 360's.  But as I think about it, University of Waterloo had put our their own compiler which they somewhat jokingly called WATFIVE which is what our stuff actually ran on at UM. I don't remember that any structured programming capability was there at all yet, just GOTO's and labels - or maybe they just didn't teach us any!

I've been told by older IT alums that UM was a missed opportunity for IT tech development in the midwest. They were in a position to build one of first great CS departments in the late 60's - in the forefront with a lot of advanced hardware development like multiplexed 360/70 systems and even had an early Amdahl. But at some point they stopped putting resources into it and so their talent got frustrated and went to CA.

it does feel like we're good at computers around here for some reason

prolly all the pfas

Edited June 10, 2022 by pfife

[1776]

Today is shaping up to be an entertaining one. Yields are going up and futures are going down. Treasury inversion is suggesting a recession. Good times.

Edited June 13, 2022 by 1776

[Screwball]

[Tigeraholic1]

Rut-Roh sounds like Bitcoin/Crytpo is nose diving......

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, Screwball said:

Sort of a repeat of Friday.

[Deleterious]

I have to imagine a 75bps rate hike is on the table for this weeks Fed meeting.  In all honest it should probably be larger than that after the brutal inflation report last week.

[1776]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

I have to imagine a 75bps rate hike is on the table for this weeks Fed meeting.  In all honest it should probably be larger than that after the brutal inflation report last week.

I believe they’ll stay with 50 basis points this week. I would be surprised if they went 75 bps without telegraphing that big a move. But, I would not bet against it right now. 
Barring a big change somewhere, I would consider 75 bps a lock for July.

Mortgage rates are spiking. The real estate picture should be an interesting one to watch going forward.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

I have to imagine a 75bps rate hike is on the table for this weeks Fed meeting.  In all honest it should probably be larger than that after the brutal inflation report last week.

Yeah - I'm sure there is a theory behind the step wise increases, but OTOH, if you know you really have to get to 'X' percent (say 4.00) what is the downside of just going there? I suppose it roils too many transactions in progress, but it would do the job a lot faster.

[1776]

WSJ just dropped this piece:

A string of troubling inflation reports is likely to lead Fed officials to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected interest-rate increase at their meeting this week.

We shall see. 

[oblong]

I don’t understand all of this and this is why…. Things are not good so the fed has to do their thing.  Word is the fed is going to do their thing.  Markets react negatively. Makes me think it’s all bullshit and what’s going to happen will happen anyway so what’s the point in worrying?  

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, oblong said:

I don’t understand all of this and this is why…. Things are not good so the fed has to do their thing.  Word is the fed is going to do their thing.  Markets react negatively. Makes me think it’s all bullshit and what’s going to happen will happen anyway so what’s the point in worrying?  

One problem is the Fed has too many customers whose interests are at cross purposes. A big jolt to interest rates would be the fastest way to stop inflation, which helps the most people, though possibly throw some out of work as well -for once that is not so much an issue because the job market it tight. But it would crater stocks and the Fed is made up of bankers and bankers don't like it when their friends in the capital class get hammered. A shock level rise in interest rates would also be a windfall for todays short sellers of stock, and wall street hates short sellars, and the Fed is wall street people.....

Edited June 14, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

A quick Google search will get you this;

Quote

The Federal Reserve board led by Volcker raised the federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in 1981 as well, which helped lead to the 1980–1982 recession, in which the national unemployment rate rose to over 10%.

We don't have those numbers, but the same pickle.

Great work geniuses.

[Screwball]

I have to share this little funny I had today.

I went to a local tavern and ran into a guy I haven’t talked to for maybe 10 years.  He started out as a commodity trader for a local farm co-op.  He went on to pass the tests required to be the head weenie of a local branch of Edward Jones.  He is now living elsewhere, retired, and is here for a week.

Probably 8-10 people around the bar. The conversation was about the market, and how much money they were all losing.  So of course they are asking him what they should do.  Of course he has no answer, other than saying he only has stocks in some Hawaii something, and something else that didn’t make much sense.  Which is nothing more than financial advisor speak bullshit they learned to pass the test that helps teach them to say said bullshit.

He then went on to say something to the effect of – I don’t know what to tell you – other than I’m glad I’m not still doing it. Of course.

So the guy sitting right beside him said something like “WTF? You are the one who put me in all this stuff – and all you have is I don’t know what to tell you?”

That pretty much ended the conversation.

Passing the Series 6 is enough to allow some arrogant dick to fuck up a lot of people’s money, the rest just fits into the systematic looting of the average person.  It is not hard to pass, can be done in a short period of time, and the more tests you pass the more damage you can do. Way too easy when trusted with a bunch of people’s money.

Fiduciary duty they call it.

I call it a scam. But it was fun watching him sweat. And besides, he chose the job, and if he didn’t think shit like this wouldn’t happen – then he is a dumb ass.

So now we have established he is not a good fiduciary, but also a dumb ass.

To be fair, I’m not sure if anyone can be a good fiduciary in today’s world.  As Carlin might say – the game is rigged.

 

[1776]

Screwball, good story. I’ve known a couple of Edward Jones’ branch managers over the years. Two of them ended up being hired by banks overseeing financial planning for their customers. 
Unless things have changed, they only offer funds that carry a load. They are, more or less, window shops for different investment firms. 
 

[oblong]

I had an accounting professor in college who confided in me that he was worth $12M, this was in 1996.  He didn't do it to brag.  He was one of those lifetime influence guys for me. Talked about work/life balance.  He was divorced and said the business success cost him his marriage and he'd change that in a heartbeat if he could.  I remembered that and never missed a kids event b/c of work (Tiger games, yes, but never work.  Work always waited).   He was in his 60's and teaching because he didn't have to work.  I would hang out in his office because at that point in my college "career" I finally switched to the path I would take and as a result I had some remedial classes to take to meet the requirements to get into the program I picked.  I had 2 hours between classes so we'd shoot the shit over coffee.  I invited him to my wedding 2 years later.  When I asked about investment/stock advice he stopped cold.  "I dont advise friends.   It's my money and once I introduce other people's money into it the calculus changes because I feel either too responsible or too reckless.  When it's only my money I'm not as nervous".  

[Screwball]

Another bad print; Producer Price Index News Release summary - from the BLS

Quote

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.4 percent in April and 1.6 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 10.8 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

PPI is a leading indicator of CPI

[1776]

Thirty year fixed mortgage rates are above 6% now.

[Screwball]

2 hours ago, 1776 said:

Screwball, good story. I’ve known a couple of Edward Jones’ branch managers over the years. Two of them ended up being hired by banks overseeing financial planning for their customers. 
Unless things have changed, they only offer funds that carry a load. They are, more or less, window shops for different investment firms. 
 

I've had conversations with several of them and I wasn't impressed with any.  I know the guy who replaced the guy I was talking about above.  He took the classes, passed his tests, got the license and took over for this guy.  He was previously an IT guy.  I used to work with him.  He probably didn't know what an option was before that.  He didn't last a year.

Another funny story about them.  In 2009 I was sitting at my desk during the market hours (and the crash). I had CNBC on the TV, my laptop and extra screen were running my trading software.

I get a knock at the door.  It's none other than a guy in a green jacket carrying a small briefcase.  I can see the Edward Jones patch on his jacket.  This should be fun, so we talked a little bit at the door, then I invited him in.  As soon as he saw my laptop, extra screen, and TV, he said, well I guess I'm done here, and scurried out the door.  I laughed.

So I sent an e-mail to a financial advisor buddy of mine who runs his own business.  I told him I just had a EJ guy bang on my door and I never knew they made house calls.

He asked me if he had a vacuum cleaner too.  I got a big kick out of that.

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Thirty year fixed mortgage rates are above 6% now.

an increase from 3.5% to 6% increases a 30yr mortgage payment by a third. I think a lot of investment buyers of housing for resale are going to get hosed.

Edited June 14, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tigeraholic1]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

an increase from 3.5% to 6% increases a 30yr mortgage payment by a third. I think a lot of investment buyers of housing for resale are going to get hosed.

This could be the wrench that breaks the machine. 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Tigeraholic1 said:

This could be the wrench that breaks the machine. 

well, lets see: Crypto gets wiped out, housing gets wiped out, Tesla gets wiped out. P&G probably looking pretty good! Need lots of soap to clean up the mess....🙄

[Screwball]

So are all the people who have recently bought.  They are underwater already.

A house across the street from me sold a couple months ago for 144,000.  The people who bought it put a for sale sign in the yard a few weeks ago with an asking price of 155,000.  They are screwed.  It won't sell, and if it did, they won't even get the 144,000.

The machine is already broken.

[CMRivdogs]

7 minutes ago, Screwball said:

So are all the people who have recently bought.  They are underwater already.

A house across the street from me sold a couple months ago for 144,000.  The people who bought it put a for sale sign in the yard a few weeks ago with an asking price of 155,000.  They are screwed.  It won't sell, and if it did, they won't even get the 144,000.

The machine is already broken.

We closed June 1 2020. Nothing like watching a house being built 700 miles away. I think at one point we were up about $70 thousand with one of the best lots in the sub.

Not looking to sell anytime soon, I figure it will be on our heirs. I'm curious to see where it goes, the ones that did buy and sell quickly did ok. There is still one on the market that hasn't seen movement at least on Realty.com and Zillow.

Upside it is a big military area and a college town. Good location between two major shopping areas (Richmond and Newport News). I am hoping that tempers things a bit.

 

[Deleterious]

21 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

an increase from 3.5% to 6% increases a 30yr mortgage payment by a third. I think a lot of investment buyers of housing for resale are going to get hosed.

That doesn't seem right.