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Just for comparison, the energy equivalent of 20 gallons of gasoline is 703 kWh, but your car is lucky to actually use it at more than 10% efficiency, whereas the energy in the battery gets used at something like 80-90% efficiency. So a 100kWh battery is a reasonable stand-in for a 20 gallon tank despite having only a fraction of the total energy available.

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

If only there was a clean way to make massive amounts of electricity where we'd already have let's say 50+ years of experience with it.

When they finally figure out that the sun shines during the day but everyone needs to charge their cars at night they might figure it out.

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I'm all for alternative sources of energy, but it's not as easy and quick as some seem to want us to believe.  How much minerals (lithium, cobalt, etc) are needed for all the batteries (lots) and how do we get them (mining).  How do we dispose of/recycle them once used, and how much energy will that take?

What about the grid required for significant EV usage to charge at home, or on our roadways, and what is the cost and timeline to fund, plan, and create the infrastructure to do so?  The grid should also integrate with wind, solar, nuclear, and whatever other energy sources we have now.

It's all about EROEI (energy returned on energy invested).  You don't mine 500 tons of lithium without energy, and lots of it, and 500 tons is nothing compared to what is needed, and it's not cheap.  We have oil derricks all over the county, but they don't pump.  Too expensive to come empty the tanks and haul away the oil.  EROEI is not worth it.

For investors, the key (IMO) is watching the transformational plan from what we have now to what we end up with in the future, to see what companies/sectors are going to see the funding to move forward.  In other words, there will no doubt companies who benefit from the transformation and could be a very profitable trade/investment.  The question will be who and when.

I have not followed the push for green energy space but I would start with finding what the plan actually is.  Is there such a plan that spells out the step by step transition to green energy and what methods will be utilized and what infrastructure will be required to do so?

Maybe there is, I have no idea, but I would start there looking to find something that my be of value to an investor, and the timing it will require.

My 2 cents.

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18 hours ago, ewsieg said:

If only there was a clean way to make massive amounts of electricity where we'd already have let's say 50+ years of experience with it.

I live probably 40 miles from the Davis Besse nuke plant in Port Clinton ,Ohio.  To the east somewhere, but I'm not sure where anymore, there is a company that deals with beryllium. There have been many reports and even a book about what some call "cancer clusters' in residents of a local town (Clyde, Ohio) have experienced.

There are rumors (maybe facts I don't remember) that there is a couple of deep underground waste dumps for either spent nuclear and/or beryllium, which some think has something to do with these problems.  I don't know and they never seem to come to a solid conclusion.

My point, any form of energy source comes with a downside in one form or another.  As we have read from all the damage done by fracking, and it's impact of our land and water, especially when not done properly, or neglect.

We better have a bunch of Erin Brockovich's.

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1 hour ago, Screwball said:

I'm all for alternative sources of energy...

One of the things that could help, though it's too early yet, is battery standardization. One of the things UM is trying to get some US money for is for the Engin school to work on cradle to grave design standards to make production and recycling of batteries efficient. All kinds of work to be done in this area for sure. 

LOL about Bessie. I was working everyday in Toledo when they almost succeeded in corroding a hole in the top of the containment vessel. Between the risk of being in a refinery whose operator thought doing equipment maintenance was for saps, to being within contamination range of a nuke plant run by one of America's worst utility operators, yeah, fun.

But nuclear power can be done safely enough. Again though, it's something that is not a good match for market economics. The market says you must spend as little as possible on safety and still be safe - but that is not a workable standard to apply to nuke. You have to do it like the Navy does, where the safety discipline is absolute - no $$ considerations. I'd be curious how France has their nuke industry structured. Might be something there worth importing but I've never looked into it how they are set up. (and of course, heaven forbid America ever take a lesson from anywhere else in the world.....)

As an aside, Sun was eventually driven out of the refinery business, in very large part because of the cost of their poor maintenance and investment driven refinery operating failures. So in that sense the market had the last word in the end, but you could never allow as many plant failures around nuclear as Sun had before being forced out the business!

Edited by gehringer_2
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Some crypto talk.

The Plain Bagel has become my favorite YT financial channel.  Actually, I believe it is the only one I watch since 99.9% of them are just trash.  This guy never tells you to buy/sell and doesn't try to pump stuff.  I recommend it to a lot of the younger people that work for us just getting into investing/finance.

 

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1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Some crypto talk.

The Plain Bagel has become my favorite YT financial channel.  Actually, I believe it is the only one I watch since 99.9% of them are just trash.  This guy never tells you to buy/sell and doesn't try to pump stuff.  I recommend it to a lot of the younger people that work for us just getting into investing/finance.

 

One thing he could have touched a little deeper on is that one of the reasons that Crypto doesn't meet its purpose as an actual exchange medium is because as mining becomes less profitable, operators will not process the blockchain without charging transaction fees, and those fees are far higher than anything (usually zero) you ever have to pay to spend a US Dollar or a Euro or even a Renminbi.

Edited by gehringer_2
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10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'd be curious how France has their nuke industry structured. Might be something there worth importing but I've never looked into it how they are set up. (and of course, heaven forbid America ever take a lesson from anywhere else in the world.....)

 

HaHA - this didn't age well

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/business/france-nuclear-power-russia.html

Quote

French Nuclear Power Crisis Frustrates Europe’s Push to Quit Russian Energy
France typically exports electricity, but now it risks blackouts and a need for imported power because of problems at the state nuclear operator.

 

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Not sure about most of those, but that Trevor Lawrence number is flat out wrong.

He did an endorsement for a crypto site/exchange.  In the press release that site called his endorsement payment a signing bonus and journalists just assumed they meant his NFL signing bonus.

So he probably still lost money.  Just not that big $24M number.

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I'd be really interesting to see how much money has been lost on ape NFTs and similar.   I don't even know how to evaluate that stuff and don't care to learn but those things have got to be near worthless now if it were my opinion

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I really have a hard time with crypto being a conversation in a thread on investing…but, be that as it may, from today’s WSJ:

Hackers have stolen roughly $100 million in cryptocurrency from a blockchain bridge, technology company Harmony said Thursday. 

Harmony, which hosts the Horizon bridge that allows users to send crypto between different blockchains, said on Twitter it is working with the Federal Bureau of Investigation and forensic specialists to identify who is behind the theft. 

The company said it is working to retrieve stolen funds. 

“We have also notified exchanges and stopped the Horizon bridge to prevent further transactions,” Harmony said. “The team is all hands on deck as investigations continue.” 
 

 

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Long lithium miners I guess.

The Electric Car Industry Doesn't Have a Demand Problem

Quote

Srinivasan calculates that converting all new cars in America — figure 17 million in a good sales year — to electric drive would require more than 1,500 gWh a year in batteries. That’s figuring a 90 kWh pack on average in each car. (The Lightning and Rivian each stuff about 130 kWh into their long-range packs, and a Hummer gobbles up 200 kWh, enough to power three smaller cars.) As things stand, America would need to boost capacity by a factor of 25 to get there. Using the administration’s 50-percent target for 2030 would require 750 GhW, more than double the nation’s total projected capacity in 2025 — and that’s assuming every last cell would go into EVs. Grid battery storage, which will compete with EVs for capacity, may need 500 gWh or more of its own. Better get cracking.

 

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1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Grid battery storage, which will compete with EVs for capacity, may need 500 gWh or more of its own. Better get cracking.

There have been advances in metal hydride battery life that may make them competitive for grid storage where you don't care about the weight penalty compared to Li.

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Can someone beat the market on a consistent basis?

I am talking about someone with very average intelligence.  Doesn’t do this as a job.  Can put 12-20 hours in a week reading/learning. 

I don’t mean you luck boxed your way to amazing 1–2-year returns.  I mean you beat the market for 10, 15, 20 years.  Can it be done?

 

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