Grading the Detroit Lions Draft - In 2021

[Motor City Sonics]

Because my theory is you can't get a feel for a player for at least 3 years (some say 4),  These are my grades for the 2021 Detroit Lions Draft.

1st Round -  Needs to be a major contributor by year 2

2nd Round -  Needs to be a starter or rotational guy (double-digit snaps per weeK)

3rd Round -  Needs to be a plus player.   

4th Round -  Need to be a depth player you can count on from time to time

5th Round - If they can at least contribute on Special Teams,  Fine

6th Round / 7th Round -  If they can stick with the team at all for a season, It's positive

 

ROUND 1 - OT PENEI SEWELL   A+     One of the best in the game 

ROUND 2 - DT  LEVI ONWUZURIKE   D    Injuries derailed him (but they knew about that when they took him)

ROUND 3 -  DT  ALIM McNEIL  A+   A bona fide runstopper with more athleticism than his physique.  

ROUND 3  CB  IFFY MELIFONWU  B   Was a ghost until middle of last year and then looked great.  Tough position to learn, it takes time.  Sample size is too small for an  A

ROUND 4  WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN  A+    One of the best receivers in football.  Mr. Reliable and a drive that fits this staff perfectly.  This guy is the heart of the team on the players side.  

ROUND 4  LB  DERRICK BARNES  B.   Like Iffy, it's a tough position to learn quickly but we finally saw flashes of what he could be and he should get better

ROUND 7 RB JAMAR JEFFERSON   B    He gets a B because of where he was drafted.  He made the team and made some plays.  Can't ask for much more from a 7th rounder, honestly.  

 

A-

 

This was the best Lions draft BY FAR in my memory (going back to about 1977, 78).   The only thing that prevents it from getting an A+ was they continued the tradition of bad 2nd round picks, but that seemed to get corrected the next year.   They covered their mistake by taking the same position in round 3.       I mean, 3 All-Pro level players.    If only they'd nailed the 2nd round in 2021.  

2024 left me a little puzzled, but so did last year. 

Trust In Brad

 

Edited April 28 by Motor City Sonics

[buddha]

a-?  that is the definition of an a+ draft.

[4hzglory]

28 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Because my theory is you can't get a feel for a player for at least 3 years (some say 4),  These are my grades for the 2021 Detroit Lions Draft.

1st Round -  Needs to be a major contributor by year 2

2nd Round -  Needs to be a starter or rotational guy (double-digit snaps per weeK)

3rd Round -  Needs to be a plus player.   

4th Round -  Need to be a depth player you can count on from time to time

5th Round - If they can at least contribute on Special Teams,  Fine

6th Round / 7th Round -  If they can stick with the team at all for a season, It's positive

 

ROUND 1 - OT PENEI SEWELL   A+     One of the best in the game 

ROUND 2 - DT  LEVI ONWUZURIKE   D    Injuries derailed him (but they knew about that when they took him)

ROUND 3 -  DT  ALIM McNEIL  A+   A bona fide runstopper with more athleticism than his physique.  

ROUND 3  CB  IFFY MELIFONWU  B   Was a ghost until middle of last year and then looked great.  Tough position to learn, it takes time.  Sample size is too small for an  A

ROUND 4  WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN  A+    One of the best receivers in football.  Mr. Reliable and a drive that fits this staff perfectly.  This guy is the heart of the team on the players side.  

ROUND 4  LB  DERRICK BARNES  B.   Like Iffy, it's a tough position to learn quickly but we finally saw flashes of what he could be and he should get better

ROUND 7 RB JAMAR JEFFERSON   B    He gets a B because of where he was drafted.  He made the team and made some plays.  Can't ask for much more from a 7th rounder, honestly.  

 

A-

 

This was the best Lions draft BY FAR in my memory (going back to about 1977, 78).   The only thing that prevents it from getting an A+ was they continued the tradition of bad 2nd round picks, but that seemed to get corrected the next year.   They covered their mistake by taking the same position in round 3.       I mean, 3 All-Pro level players.    If only they'd nailed the 2nd round in 2021.  

2024 left me a little puzzled, but so did last year. 

Trust In Brad

 

2 All Pro players, 3 Pro Bowlers, 5 Starter/significant rotational players, everyone still on the team that should have won the NFC Championship game and the don’t get a straight A or A plus?   
 

so if St Brown was just a starter, but Levi was a significant rotational guy they would have gotten an A?  LOL

[RandyMarsh]

Yeah getting 2 All Pros at premium positions along with a borderline Pro Bowl level guy in McNeill AND 2 solid guys in Iffy and Barnes is about as good of draft as you can reasonably ask for. A+ for sure in my books. 

[Motown Bombers]

It's hard enough getting one foundational player in a single draft, let alone two and a plus starter in McNeil and solid starters in Melifonwu and Barnes on a 12 win NFC Championship game team. I would also add that none of these picks were gimmes. No one would have complained at the time if they drafted Fields over Sewell. 

[Tenacious D]

The fact that we were able to pay the Sun God as a 4th rounder, while getting 1st round output, makes this an A for me, along with all of the other contributors.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

This is the definition of an A+ draft. I'm as critical and cynical as they come sometimes, but Brad Holmes and company hit a grand slam here. To get 5 quality starters out of a draft, with two of them being all pros and another being Pro Bowl caliber, is absurd in the NFL. It doesn't get any better than a draft like this for the Lions or any NFL team. This is an A+ draft and would be an A++ if Levi weren't likely trending to be a bust due to injuries.

[holygoat]

Yeah, if you get two guys who are trending towards gold-jacket careers after three season in a single draft, it's an A+ regardless of what you get from any of the others. The fact that they got Alim, as well, only solidifies it for me.

[MichiganCardinal]

1.7: Penei Sewell, A+

One of the best in the game, and a perennial All Pro candidate if he continues on his present trajectory. It's so easy to forget this dude is only 23.

2.41: Levi Onwuzurike, D+

It'd be easy to run this dude out of town, but this story he wrote made me give him an enormous amount of respect. It would have been so easy for this dude to medically retire after 2022. No one would have blamed him. He's got serious grit, and I know he could have been so much better if not for his injuries. I disagree with the sentiment that the team should have known his back would give out on him, he started almost every game at Washington... At the same time, a #41 pick has to be better than what he's shown. It's not his fault, but with the additions of Reader and Wingo, I doubt Levi is long for the Lions at this point. I hope he lands on his feet somewhere that doesn't play Detroit twice a year and contributes.

3.72: Alim McNeill, A-

He was a little slow getting going to start his career, but has easily turned into one of the unsung heroes of the Lions defense. Him and Hutch were the only two contributors on the defensive line for long stretches of time last season and I doubt we would have experienced the success we did without him. I really hope the fact that Penei and Amon-Ra were extended within hours without reference to Alim doesn't mean he's not being re-signed.

3.101: Iffy Melifonwu, B

I almost gave him an incomplete grade, but I decided not to cop out. He would have been a C or C- until Week 14 of last season, when he got the starting nod over Tracy Walker and didn't look back. Will he continue to trend upwards? He could easily become an A if he does, he was lights out to close out the year. But I'm not yet ready to appoint him a sustainable success. If he continues the success into 2024, I'll be ecstatic.

4.112: Amon-Ra St. Brown, A+

Nothing more can be said. An absolute beast who would probably go in the top five in a re-draft.

4.113: Derrick Barnes, B

A quality depth piece with shining moments, which is pretty good for a 4th round pick not named Amon-Ra St. Brown. He'll forever be remembered in Lions lore for his interception against the Bucs, and we will choose to all forget the missed sack against the Cowboys.

7.257: Jermar Jefferson, B

He's still in the NFL and still with the Lions three years later, which is not easy to do for a 7th round pick. Kudos to him.

UDFA: Brock Wright, A

What a DUDE. He's as much as you could ever hope to get out of a UDFA. He's a fierce competitor, a solid player, and a fan favorite who was well worth matching a second contract for. To quote one Dan Miller, "BROCK. WRIGHT."

UDFA: Jerry Jacobs, B+

He gets a lot of hate, but it's because he is a young UDFA who has been forced into a starting role for the Lions on multiple occasions, which wasn't fair to him. He went from being guaranteed $3,500 on his first contract to being an every-down corner on a team that won the NFC North. For context, a Last Chance U running back was signed by the Lions in the same offseason and was guaranteed $5,000. He held his own as much as you could expect him to.

 

Overall: A+

I went between A and A+ on this. Levi is obviously less than ideal, but I still settled on A+ because I cannot imagine ever seeing a better draft in my lifetime. And if I do, I'll gladly give an A++.

If we did a re-draft in 2024, neither Penei nor ASB make it to the Lions 1st round pick at #7. That's incredible in its own right. Add onto that that you added a defensive cornerstone for a trip to the NFC Championship in round three, solid depth and potential starters in the 3rd and 4th round, and a fan-favorite TE and starting corner as UDFAs? All in the first year of a regime, where you were hired three months before the draft and were simultaneously assembling a staff? Truly incredible stuff and completely unprecedented in Detroit... If you make Levi the 7th round pick and bump everyone else up a pick, it looks a lot better. I don't think one whiff in a draft should define the draft.

[RatkoVarda]

If Levi makes it thru 2024, plays 14+ games, and then moves on, I think it is A++.

Otherwise just A+

[Jimbo]

It'll definitely be interesting to see what Holme's draft will be his best 10 years from now.  A lot of unknowns from last years draft still since its only 1 year.  Does Hooker make any contribution (even if its a trade)?   Does Sorsdal or Martin ever start?  Can Green be a depth guy?  To me though, the biggest question for this draft being his best will be if Cambell ends up being a prowl bowler.  To be considered better than 2021.

It would be interesting to compare his drafts with other great GM's.  A lot would have to be considered. 

[KnoxP]

I'd go A+.  By your own definitions I don't see one hole or missed pick.

[Motor City Sonics]

13 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

If Levi makes it thru 2024, plays 14+ games, and then moves on, I think it is A++.

Otherwise just A+

I feel like Levi is not going to be  on the team this season.        I don't think this is a staff that holds on to him just to not look bad.   I think you either contribute or you're gone.   They liked Buggs, but they cut him loose.  Couldn't use him.   Seems like Levi has dropped on the depth chart rather quickly.    Health is a big reason why.    

[Jason_R]

Franchise altering draft for sure. 

Taking nothing away from McNeil, who went from good to great, but Detroit has drafted a lot of players who were OK just skating by on talent and who did not make the extra effort to become great. I’m sure it didn’t hurt McNeil to have tone-setting, culture-changing players like Sewell and St. Brown and others to set expectations. 

[Longgone]

20 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I feel like Levi is not going to be  on the team this season.        I don't think this is a staff that holds on to him just to not look bad.   I think you either contribute or you're gone.   They liked Buggs, but they cut him loose.  Couldn't use him.   Seems like Levi has dropped on the depth chart rather quickly.    Health is a big reason why.    

He’ll finally be more than a year beyond the significant surgery, so like Latu, he may really come on now that he can properly train. Or he may not, we’ll see.

[RedRamage]

On 4/28/2024 at 6:52 PM, buddha said:

a-?  that is the definition of an a+ draft.

If you're grading on a curve, yeah. But this is kinda like the PFF method of grading. Each pick can only get an A+ grade. ARSB should be like an A+++++++++ grade. Top 10 player at his position in round 4? Yeah, that's big time score! But if you can only be A+ per pick, then you average all the picks, you come out with an A- because of Levi.

Having said that, this isn't probably the best way to grade a draft.

[4hzglory]

42 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

If you're grading on a curve, yeah. But this is kinda like the PFF method of grading. Each pick can only get an A+ grade. ARSB should be like an A+++++++++ grade. Top 10 player at his position in round 4? Yeah, that's big time score! But if you can only be A+ per pick, then you average all the picks, you come out with an A- because of Levi.

Having said that, this isn't probably the best way to grade a draft.

How about this:

All Pro:  100%

Pro Bowl:  95%

Starter on playoff caliber team:  90%

Starter on team like the 2021 Lions/ solid rotational player currently 80%

Special Teams contributer/still on roster contributing10-25% of snaps:  70%

Still on roster, barely contributing:  60%

Contributed some over years, but not on current roster: 50%

Not in Football:  F

Round bonus:

Round 1:  0% Round 2:  5% Round 3: 10% Round 4: 15% Round 5: 20% Round 6: 25% Round 7: 30%, FA: 35%

So 2021:

Sewell:  100% + 0 bonus = 100%

Levi: 60% + 5% bonus = 65%

Aim:  95% + 10% = 105%

Iffy:  80% + 15% = 95%

St Brown:  100% + 20% = 120%

Barnes: 80% + 20% = 100%

Jefferson:  50% + 35% = 85%

Wright:  80% + 35%  =115%

Jacobs:  70% + 35% = 105%

Total 890%/9 = 98.89%

Definitely and A  to A+ 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

On 4/29/2024 at 12:45 PM, Jason_R said:

Franchise altering draft for sure. 

Taking nothing away from McNeil, who went from good to great, but Detroit has drafted a lot of players who were OK just skating by on talent and who did not make the extra effort to become great. I’m sure it didn’t hurt McNeil to have tone-setting, culture-changing players like Sewell and St. Brown and others to set expectations. 

I think the coaching staff and the culture they have developed is a big part of this as well. Players actually want to play hard for this staff and respects them. Contrast the culture they have built now with that of Matt Patricia. An overweight guy, who didn't play football, sat in a golf cart, yelled at players, and allegedly showed up late to team meetings. Who wants to fight and play hard for that guy or his staff?

[Motown Bombers]

I feel like this staff has a plan for players and they are patient. I don't think anyone would have been shocked if Melifonwu did not make the roster out of training camp. The coaching staff was patient and committed to converting him to safety and it paid off. 

[Jason_R]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel like this staff has a plan for players and they are patient. I don't think anyone would have been shocked if Melifonwu did not make the roster out of training camp. The coaching staff was patient and committed to converting him to safety and it paid off. 

Yes, and they have been players, so they rarely put players in roles they can't handle. And if they do, like with Cam Sutton last year, they back him up publicly when he is seen to be in over his head. What a massive change between that turd Patricia and the MCDC regime. 

[RedRamage]

16 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel like this staff has a plan for players and they are patient. I don't think anyone would have been shocked if Melifonwu did not make the roster out of training camp. The coaching staff was patient and committed to converting him to safety and it paid off. 

Obviously we're still early in the tenue of Holmes, but what this does NOT feel like is a Dombrowski built team. I'm not trying to hate on Dombrowski because he pulled the Tigers out of the depths of the MLB and put the team in a position to win World Series for a while, but he also heavily mortgaged the future to do it.

Holmes seems to be trying to build a consistently good roster, not just a "run for the SB and then suck for 10 years" sort of situation, but a sustained success. Time will tell if it works, but the results so far are very promising.

[gehringer_2]

43 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

Holmes seems to be trying to build a consistently good roster, not just a "run for the SB and then suck for 10 years" sort of situation, but a sustained success. Time will tell if it works, but the results so far are very promising.

No easy task. A team trying to build for consistent quality will always be at a disadvantage to teams willing to mortgage their futures for a short run. The CBAs and salary cap systems try to force any budding dynasties to be short. He's going to have to be a lot smarter than the average GM  - and maybe he is.

[Jimbo]

I think if your a good to great GM, you can make some bold changes and still be relevant before your back in the mix for a super bowl.  Something similar to what Philly did.  The good thing about the Lions is that they had nothing and then built through the draft and have a lot of young players so I think their run will be longer.  On the difficult end is they don't have that QB like MaHomes or Brady where you can still be a Superbowl contender in your down years.  Goff is good but if you don't have players around him (especially an OL) you won't be a Superbowl contender.  That is why I don't want to go crazy on his contract.  If 3 years or less I am good for 50mil a year although if its more I don't want to pay more than 40-45 mil.  If you do you could mortgage the future.  I think he knows this and is why it might take a little longer to get a contract done.

[Motown Bombers]

If you're using the Eagles as an example, Hurts isn't Brady or Mahomes either. The one team that may have a better line than the Lions is the Eagles. Hurts struggled last year against the blitz where Goff, contrary to popular belief, has been one of the best QBs against the blitz the past couple seasons. The Eagles also signed Hurts to a funky contract. They tacked on a lot of void years. Sure his cap hit is low but they are going to pay for it at the end of his contract. 

[Motown Bombers]

I don't think people understand how ugly the Hurts contract can get. The Eagles added 4 void years to his contract. They literally cannot release him for the next 6 years without taking an over $90 million cap hit. They could release him after 2027 and spread that hit over two years. Even if he plays his entire contract, they will still have a $97 million cap hit at the end unless they re-sign him. They basically gave him this contract with the expectation that would sign him to another extension. Risky proposition for a QB that had only one good year and relies on his legs.