Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[AlaskanTigersFan]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I doubt anybody remembers or cares what you said in spring training, but it It seems you were wrong when you said: "I said going into spring training that they would suck this year and last year was a mirage"

You were wrong because they didn't suck until the end of the year.  They were good most of the year.  Their overall record is about the same as last year.  Just very different sequencing.  The collapse at the end has been embarrassing and depressing, but I don't think their overall record is much different than most people predicted.  

True. Hence y I put the disclaimer "Now, did I deserve it..... probably."  👍

[SoCalTiger]

We were in first place or in contention for it ALL YEAR and our farm system was stellar. That is a bloody good season at the Macro level. It's the Sopranos with a ****ty ending but we WILL be back next year provided Harris makes some solid moves. I think he will.

[papalawrence]

56 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

We were in first place or in contention for it ALL YEAR and our farm system was stellar. That is a bloody good season at the Macro level. It's the Sopranos with a ****ty ending but we WILL be back next year provided Harris makes some solid moves. I think he will.

I think he may try to bring back Verlander. Probably make a similar run at Bregman. Sign Finnegan. Bring back the 70s bullpen car. That's just phase 1.

[lordstanley]

1 minute ago, papalawrence said:

I think he may try to bring back Verlander. Probably make a similar run at Bregman. Sign Finnegan. Bring back the 70s bullpen car. That's just phase 1.

I’d like to see dancing groundskeepers in the mode of Herbie Redmond. 

[tiger2022]

5 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

We were in first place or in contention for it ALL YEAR and our farm system was stellar. That is a bloody good season at the Macro level. It's the Sopranos with a ****ty ending but we WILL be back next year provided Harris makes some solid moves. I think he will.

We'll get 'em next year...

We'll always get 'em next year.

[Motor City Sonics]

Let Skubal walk.   Why spend for what he's done in the past?       Give him 50 million a year after he's peaked?        Nope.     Remember the last 5 years of Miggy? 

Edited September 25 by Motor City Sonics

[Motor City Sonics]

6 hours ago, papalawrence said:

I think he may try to bring back Verlander. Probably make a similar run at Bregman. Sign Finnegan. Bring back the 70s bullpen car. That's just phase 1.

Harris will do none of that.   He showed you that this year.    I don't believe the Bregman stuff at all.  I think it was only used to leverage the Red Sox into spending.   Harris is just like Yzerman.    Neither one will ever make a bold move.    Everyone raving about the Wings getting John Gibson.    Folks, he's just an okay goalie.   A better one that we had but that's because Yzerman can't find a goalie to save his life.   Harris is the same way.   Get ready for more Canhas and Cobbs.    Torres was a nice signing for a year (until he took September off), but you need more than that.     Nice farm system.  Who cares?  Didn't we hear that about Randy Smith at one point too? 

Edited September 25 by Motor City Sonics

[HeyAbbott]

The Tigers had a below the median home attendance for 2025. There are 16 major league clubs that will do better. The Fanduel deal was substantially reduced this year, by some accounts. This is a below average revenue producing team.

   Skubal is about due for another major surgery given the number of stressful innings on his arm, and is a major risk after 2026.

Pass on Skubal. Mike I, show some masculine accouterments,  and buy A third baseman to lengthen the lineup and sign a quality SP, and stop ****ing around and create your own sports network.

[Motor City Sonics]

16 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said:

The Tigers had a below the median home attendance for 2025. There are 16 major league clubs that will do better. The Fanduel deal was substantially reduced this year, by some accounts. This is a below average revenue producing team.

   Skubal is about due for another major surgery given the number of stressful innings on his arm, and is a major risk after 2026.

Pass on Skubal. Mike I, show some masculine accouterments,  and buy A third baseman to lengthen the lineup and sign a quality SP, and stop ****ing around and create your own sports network.

The Tigers were in first place all year until today.   The Colorado Rockies outdraw the Tigers.       That's pretty sad.  The other teams that the Rockies outdraw are mostly teams that really weren't contending.   That's pretty bad.     The Atlanta Braves sucked all year (except when they played the Tigers) and they outdrew the Tigers by 6,000 a night.     

   I would say the Red Wings will be interesting until about February, be in the conversation for the playoffs  - and then they'll come back from the Olympic break, suck, and Yzerman won't make a major move and then drift aimlessly into the offseason (after missing the playoffs, of course) and we'll have the same conversation about them next year. 

The Pistons are a true wildcard because now there are expectations, something they haven't dealt with in a decade.  But nobody will really care because the NBA is more of a marketing scheme than a sport now.  I think the only way to get a fanbase to truly connect with the Pistons is they have to get to the final four.   The last decade the Pistons were really good at one thing -  getting a once-excited fanbase to be apathetic, which is worse than being angry, like Tigers fans are now.     

It's all about the Lions.      Stay healthy, fellas.    If they stay healthy, I don't see any reason they shouldn't be in the NFC Championship at the very least. 

 

Edited September 25 by Motor City Sonics

[Toddwert]

17 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

We were in first place or in contention for it ALL YEAR and our farm system was stellar. That is a bloody good season at the Macro level. It's the Sopranos with a ****ty ending but we WILL be back next year provided Harris makes some solid moves. I think he will.

if you didnt notice pitching in the minor league system was gutted by injures

[IdahoBert]

10 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Let Skubal walk.   Why spend for what he's done in the past?       Give him 50 million a year after he's peaked?        Nope.     Remember the last 5 years of Miggy? 

I think there’s a good chance this is on target. Was Verlander throwing as consistently hard as Skubal throws today 15-20 years ago? You can’t compare the stress on an arm back then with the stress received on an arm today.

Assuming Skubal is going to produce at the elite level he has the last two years for another seven or eight years after this point is wishful thinking.

He’s pretty much made it clear he’s going to the highest bidder. And the Tigers will not be in that echelon.

I don’t think he’s the kind of guy who will make a home town deal. Does anybody even do that anymore? 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Well, hopefully tonight was the last night we see Skubal start for the ol English D.

 

Thanks Skube for all you did for Detroit. And good luck wherever you go. Please let the prospects that come back to Detroit for you know the best places to eat...... 

[Tenacious D]

7 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Well, hopefully tonight was the last night we see Skubal start for the ol English D.

 

Thanks Skube for all you did for Detroit. And good luck wherever you go. Please let the prospects that come back to Detroit for you know the best places to eat...... 

Ha—he’s not going anywhere.  

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Just now, Tenacious D said:

Ha—he’s not going anywhere.  

That will be a HUGE mistake. 

[papalawrence]

Unless Harris is blown away with a package, I'm sure Skubal is in Detroit for 2026

[AlaskanTigersFan]

If the Tigers trade Skubal this offseason, he can get up to three top prospects from a team (looking at you Dave Dombrowski of the Phillies who hates prospects![Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford]).

If they wait for next year, and are out of the playoffs by mid-year and go to trade him (if he's not hurt), that value drops to maybe one of an organization's top 4 or 5 prospect and a few B level flyers...... Trade him now, let the kids play w/ McGonigle, Briceno, Liranzo, Anderson and maybe Clark next year......  

If the Tigers trade him this offseason, they set their team up in a much better spot to win for the next decade. If they don't, then it's one of the most neglectful situations in Detroit sports history, maybe even in all of professional sports history. If Skubal costs 400million+ (and we actually were able to sign him), and we only get 2 years of ACE quality, MAAAAAAAAYBE 3, is he really worth 400+ million dollars? We will screw the organization all over again by combining Baez's bad contract WITH Miguel Cabrera's later years.

According to Chat GPT, there are only 8 players who have had an ERA under 3.00 with at least 15 starts while being 35 years of age and older. Out of about 30,000 to 40,000 pitchers. 

 

 

Quote

 

Best current estimate

Given the confirmed cases and the limitations of public sources, a conservative estimate is:

At least 8 distinct seasons by starting pitchers aged 35 or older (with ≥ 15 starts) in the past ~100 years have had ERA < 3.00 — when we exclude Walter Johnson’s 1924 as being before 1925.

 

Anyone who doesn't want Skubal traded right now is literally bending over the Tigers and are begging for mediocrity for the next decade. Trade him now or suffer. It's really that simple. 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Starting a thread specifically about trading Skubal. I posted this in another thread, but since it's 8 pages long and only like 10 people look at posts that long, I figured I'd repost my original here.
_______________________________________________________________

If the Tigers trade Skubal this offseason, he can get up to three top prospects from a team (looking at you Dave Dombrowski of the Phillies who hates prospects![Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford]).

If they wait for next year, and are out of the playoffs by mid-year and go to trade him (if he's not hurt), that value drops to maybe one of an organization's top 4 or 5 prospect and a few B level flyers...... Trade him now, let the kids play w/ McGonigle, Briceno, Liranzo, Anderson and maybe Clark next year......  

If the Tigers trade him this offseason, they set their team up in a much better spot to win for the next decade. If they don't, then it's one of the most neglectful situations in Detroit sports history, maybe even in all of professional sports history. If Skubal costs 400million+ (and we actually were able to sign him), and we only get 2 years of ACE quality, MAAAAAAAAYBE 3, is he really worth 400+ million dollars? We will screw the organization all over again by combining Baez's bad contract WITH Miguel Cabrera's later years.

According to Chat GPT, there are only 8 players who have had an ERA under 3.00 with at least 15 starts while being 35 years of age and older. Out of about 30,000 to 40,000 pitchers. 

 

 

Quote

 

Best current estimate

Given the confirmed cases and the limitations of public sources, a conservative estimate is:

At least 8 distinct seasons by starting pitchers aged 35 or older (with ≥ 15 starts) in the past ~100 years have had ERA < 3.00 — when we exclude Walter Johnson’s 1924 as being before 1925.

 

Anyone who doesn't want Skubal traded right now is (edited) begging for mediocrity for the next decade. Trade him now or suffer. It's really that simple. 

 

[1984Echoes]

7 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Unless Harris is blown away with a package, I'm sure Skubal is in Detroit for 2026

This.

Offer the extension...

And then if there's no interest...

I'm of the mind that Harris will be blown away by a couple of offers.

From the Philles/ Dodgers, specifically.

But if those offers aren't forthcoming, and Boras/Skubal say "no" to the Tigers offer...

Then we will just have to live with Skubal pitching for the Tigers in 2026 and the comp pick after the end of the season when he walks in FA...

I can live with that.

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.

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I would prefer a "Godfather" offer though...

[Tenacious D]

15 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

This.

Offer the extension...

And then if there's no interest...

I'm of the mind that Harris will be blown away by a couple of offers.

From the Philles/ Dodgers, specifically.

But if those offers aren't forthcoming, and Boras/Skubal say "no" to the Tigers offer...

Then we will just have to live with Skubal pitching for the Tigers in 2026 and the comp pick after the end of the season when he walks in FA...

I can live with that.

.

.

.

I would prefer a "Godfather" offer though...

The Godfather offers don’t seem to pan out for pitchers.  Keep him, sign him or take the draft comp.  Or, if we’re not in playoff contention, then consider moving him at the deadline. I would not trade him this offseason.

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

The Godfather offers don’t seem to pan out for pitchers.  Keep him, sign him or take the draft comp.  Or, if we’re not in playoff contention, then consider moving him at the deadline. I would not trade him this offseason.

It's the value what you can get in trade vs the value of a comp pick plus one year of service. I know it's probably counter-intuitive, but I would say that that most hard-header view would be trade him if you think you can make the playoffs anyway - once in the playoff anything can and does happen. Second case: If you are going to be bad and won't make the playoffs with him, trade him. Third case: Only if he's the difference between making and missing does his one year value likely make up the difference between a comp pick and what you can get back. 

The Tigers will be in one of the latter two categories, but only Harris knows which the org is  willing to settle for.

[Hart]

This is such a hard decision.  One thing I hope the front office does consider before deciding to let Skubal go is that if he does continue to track for a hall of fame career, he goes into the hall of fame with another team.  It's nice to have great players to celebrate 30 or 40 years from now.  We have that with Whitaker and Trammell and Morris.  We will have that with Verlander and Cabrera.  We are going to lose that to a large degree with Skubal if we move on from him.  

 

[1776]

28 minutes ago, Hart said:

This is such a hard decision.  One thing I hope the front office does consider before deciding to let Skubal go is that if he does continue to track for a hall of fame career, he goes into the hall of fame with another team.  It's nice to have great players to celebrate 30 or 40 years from now.  We have that with Whitaker and Trammell and Morris.  We will have that with Verlander and Cabrera.  We are going to lose that to a large degree with Skubal if we move on from him.  

 

I’d like to think JV would go in as a Tiger but I’m not convinced at all that he will.  

[antrat]

1 hour ago, Hart said:

This is such a hard decision.  One thing I hope the front office does consider before deciding to let Skubal go is that if he does continue to track for a hall of fame career, he goes into the hall of fame with another team.  It's nice to have great players to celebrate 30 or 40 years from now.  We have that with Whitaker and Trammell and Morris.  We will have that with Verlander and Cabrera.  We are going to lose that to a large degree with Skubal if we move on from him.  

 

I'll be long dead by then. Time is running out. Get another ring before I croak. Pay up for Skubal. Despite this loss and their collapse the second half, I truly believe they are so close. With amazing players down in the minors getting ready to make an impact. Hell, Troy Melton looks phenomenal as well. 

Edited October 12 by antrat

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, Hart said:

This is such a hard decision.  One thing I hope the front office does consider before deciding to let Skubal go is that if he does continue to track for a hall of fame career, he goes into the hall of fame with another team.  It's nice to have great players to celebrate 30 or 40 years from now.  We have that with Whitaker and Trammell and Morris.  We will have that with Verlander and Cabrera.  We are going to lose that to a large degree with Skubal if we move on from him.  

 

The comp is probably Scherzer, who was elite with the Tigers, but not long enough to have the lasting connection.  Skubal has been better and nationally associated with the Tigers, but if he signs for 8-10 years with a new team, they will become who he is identified with.

And I’m not convinced Verlander goes in as a Tiger.

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

And I’m not convinced Verlander goes in as a Tiger.

He played with the Tigers for 13 years.  I will think of him as a Tiger regardless.