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2022 NBA Draft Prelude


Deleterious

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I feel a little better knowing they are not high on Ivey.

Pistons mailbag: Jerami Grant’s future, Deandre Ayton, Collin Sexton, No. 5 pick

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If you broke down the percentages for the Pistons between Murray, Shaedon Sharpe and Bennedict Mathurin, where do you put them? Good pod today, by the way. — @CopperCutters

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OK, to the good stuff: This is hard to answer. I’m not trying to cop out, but the Pistons are still in the process of figuring all that out. I feel confident that if Detroit keeps the No. 5 pick, one of the three names you mentioned or Purdue’s Jaden Ivey will be coming to the Motor City.

Detroit is working under the assumption that Chet Holmgren, Smith, Banchero and one of Murray, Ivey or Sharpe will be gone by the time they’re on the clock. Everything I’ve heard is that several decision-makers in the Pistons’ front office really like Murray. The same goes for Mathurin. Ivey is the prospect I’ve heard mixed reviews about. Hot and cold. Sharpe, of course, is intriguing, but the lack of high-level film provides some hesitation. Detroit is spending this time trying to formulate an opinion on Sharpe, who, per sources, will be working out in Detroit within the next 10 days.

Right now, if I had to rank these prospects for Detroit, I’d go Murray, Mathurin/Sharpe and then Ivey. I’m not saying this can’t change as the draft inches closer. This is how I see the current big board, based on conversations over the past few weeks and months.

 

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Yeah, I heard that on his podcast yesterday, and it's funny because I also heard Omari Sankofa on his pod say that the Pistons are very high on Ivey.

It's 1/2 smokescreen and 1/2 changing opinions at this point. Pistons are also one of the teams not announcing (for the most part) who they're bringing in for workouts, so I think everything is being played close to the vest.

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18 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Top four

Smith

Murray

Daniels

Mathurin

Two of the four should be there at 5.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting top 4. Is this just being different for clicks? 😄 

I'm not there on Daniels, but he does seem to rising up draft boards. I'm curious about you ranking Murray so high. Are you just trying to get an early start on coping with the fact that Pistons are probably going to take him?

Seriously though, do you see his ceiling as higher than others are projecting or are you just cool with the idea of getting a high floor guy rather than the riskier picks?

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To me I like guys like Murray and Mathurin cause I think they offer the right combination of upside and floor. Its unlikely either is going to be an All NBAer but I think there is a relatively good chance they turn out to be a Middleton type.

By that I mean not necessarily their skill or playset just how they are viewed as a player around the league and the Bucks have already shown you can win a ship with Middleton as your second best player. 

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12 hours ago, Betrayer said:

Interesting top 4. Is this just being different for clicks? 😄 

I'm not there on Daniels, but he does seem to rising up draft boards. I'm curious about you ranking Murray so high. Are you just trying to get an early start on coping with the fact that Pistons are probably going to take him?

Seriously though, do you see his ceiling as higher than others are projecting or are you just cool with the idea of getting a high floor guy rather than the riskier picks?

I probably rank him higher than most here.  I view him as a legit 2nd option on a contending team.  A possible 20 and 10 type player.

On defense, he is never going to be a lock down type guy.  He will never make all defense.  Worst case scenario, he is a neutral defender and I feel he eventually is a plus defender.  Very high BBIQ and will be a better team defender than man defender.  Most importantly, and why Paolo and Chet are not on my list, Murray can easily stay on the floor in the playoffs.

On offense he is a two level scorer.  Really good at the rim to about 10-12 feet out, especially along the baseline.  Excellent 3PT shooter (39.8% on the season.  45% in Big Ten play) for his second zone.  Not good at all in the 15-20 foot range.  One hope is in college you see a lot more defenders in that area.  So maybe the NBA spacing will help in that area.  But honestly, I hate that shot anyway so not a huge deal if he struggles there.

Where I really get excited about him is in the PnR with Cade.  Murray is a legit threat to catch a lob and and even bigger threat at the 3PT line.  How many PF's  in the league can do both of those things?  He is the perfect modern day big for the playoffs.  I think him and Cade will play off each other really well.

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On 6/3/2022 at 12:30 AM, Deleterious said:

I probably rank him higher than most here.  I view him as a legit 2nd option on a contending team.  A possible 20 and 10 type player.

On defense, he is never going to be a lock down type guy.  He will never make all defense.  Worst case scenario, he is a neutral defender and I feel he eventually is a plus defender.  Very high BBIQ and will be a better team defender than man defender.  Most importantly, and why Paolo and Chet are not on my list, Murray can easily stay on the floor in the playoffs.

On offense he is a two level scorer.  Really good at the rim to about 10-12 feet out, especially along the baseline.  Excellent 3PT shooter (39.8% on the season.  45% in Big Ten play) for his second zone.  Not good at all in the 15-20 foot range.  One hope is in college you see a lot more defenders in that area.  So maybe the NBA spacing will help in that area.  But honestly, I hate that shot anyway so not a huge deal if he struggles there.

Where I really get excited about him is in the PnR with Cade.  Murray is a legit threat to catch a lob and and even bigger threat at the 3PT line.  How many PF's  in the league can do both of those things?  He is the perfect modern day big for the playoffs.  I think him and Cade will play off each other really well.

Thanks. I like the logic and hope he has the ceiling you're projecting for him. Really that's my main concern with him. I want that 2nd guy next to Cade before getting "the others". I don't see his ceiling as quite that high, but I hope you're right because it really sounds like the Pistons are very high on him and I do think he's a great culture fit for the team.

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Few comments on a couple of guys.

https://theathletic.com/3350046/2022/06/07/nba-draft-top-guards-analysis/?source=user_shared_article&redirected=1

Sharpe:

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Western Conference Executive No. 4: (Michael) Porter (Jr.) had those last several games at Missouri (after back surgery). Kevin Porter at USC didn’t play the entire year because he was suspended off and on. This kid, we have nothing but YouTube video to go on. I think you are just taking an absolute swing. And you (have to) have ownership completely behind you in that swing, as well as your head coach and that staff. You gotta be patient, and you better have a plan, and everybody’s on board. You’re saying, we’re getting, he should have been the first pick in the draft, but we’re getting him at seven. We’re getting him at 11. There is just not a lot to go on. … The teams that are allowed to bring him in, it’s not going to be so much the workout. I think it’s going to be just getting to know the kid, see where his head is at. … you know the teams that could do that — the Oklahoma Citys, the San Antonios. The synergy between ownership and front office and coaches and strength and conditioning. … you could see a team’s eyes perk up because of what they see in this kid.

Mathurin:

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I think he’s better one-dribble pull-up, but he can do two. But I think he’s better as a one-dribble pull-up. It’s a better rhythm for him. He still needs to become a better ballhandler. The more times he has to put it on the floor, the more chances he’ll do something wrong. I would say (his range is) a foot beyond the NBA line right now, maybe, in terms of being consistent and knocking down shots. I would say (defense) is not totally consistent, but if he needs to focus in and shut someone down at a certain time of a game, he’s a pretty good defender. But he has to be more disciplined, more in focus during games than just down the stretch…

Daniels:

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Western Conference Executive No. 4: If we re-draft in three to four years, he may be the guy who should have been taken higher. A 6-7 18-year-old that can play the point guard today, has a phenomenal basketball IQ and mature beyond his years. He can defend three positions. His shooting, sure, it needs work. But these kids get 250, 300 reps every single day, so his shooting will be adequate enough. He makes players around him better, and he can pass the ball. If there was a highlighted guy right now in my mind, this could be one where we should have took him and let the developmental time elapse, and we’ve got ourselves a cornerstone of our team for the next 10-12 years.

I like Daniels the more I watch him but I cant get over the lack of shooting.  Thanks Stanley and Killian.

Daniels is what we were told Killian would be.  Big, really good defense, smart, pass first, but needs to work on his shooting.  Daniels is not one hand dominant like Killian though.  And Daniels has played against elite competition.  Killian never played against any decent competition until he arrived in the NBA.

If they could snag that Portland pick (they wont), Daniels would be my target.  Him and Murray would be a very nice draft.

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DK has their odds out for the draft.  I will list the top two favorites at each slot:

1 - Smith -450 | Chet +425

2 - Chet -425 | Smith +425

3 - Paolo -650 | Ivey +750

4 - Ivey -330 | Sharpe +450

5 - Murray +120 | Sharpe +190 | Ivey +270 | Daniels +600

The Pistons are supposedly high on Mathurin and DK has him at #5 +3000.  Possibly good value there.

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30 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I guess they would have to sue the feds. I read they can't collect the money do to the type of visa they are on.

Isn't that the joke? You're right, you can't 'work' on a student visa, so whether the schools or NCAA want to call NIL 'employment' or not, INS has no such scruple! 

But OTOH, if they are getting paid I see no reason a school shouldn't be able to apply for an H1B for an athlete instead of a student visa.  I don't think there is any rule that you can't also go to class while your working under an H1B. Maybe that will be the next shoe to drop!

Edited by gehringer_2
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I really believe if this kid was 18/19 years old he would go #1.  People are making too much of him being a late bloomer.

NBA prospect Keegan Murray: 'I’m able to score on all three levels and I’m able to play any role'

His shot chart from this year that was included in that article.  Red = above D1 average % and blue is below average.

Screen-Shot-2022-06-06-at-3.50.32-PM.png

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3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I really believe if this kid was 18/19 years old he would go #1.  People are making too much of him being a late bloomer.

NBA prospect Keegan Murray: 'I’m able to score on all three levels and I’m able to play any role'

His shot chart from this year that was included in that article.  Red = above D1 average % and blue is below average.

Screen-Shot-2022-06-06-at-3.50.32-PM.png

The more stuff you post about Murray the more I like him. Im getting to the point where I may actually be a little disappointed if we don't get him, which is weird cause a month ago I didn't even want him. 

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