2023 NFL Draft Thread

[Longgone]

23 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Yes, it IS true:

"Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's offense didn't feature a heavy workload in the passing game for the tight end position. The Lions' offense plays a lot under center, utilizes motion and plays mostly 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, 3 WR). In fact, Detroit played 11 personnel 64 percent of the time. Detroit used two tight end sets just 11 percent of the time in 2022.

Key stat: Quarterback Jared Goff had a 141.7 passer rating when throwing to Wright (18-of-24, 216 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT), a 139.8 rating throwing Mitchell's way (11-of-11, 113 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT) and a 119.7 rating throwing at Zylstra (11-of-15, 60 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT). Those ratings were the three highest of any pass catcher Goff threw to in 2022.

MVP: Wright

Wright wasn't a high-volume pass catcher in this offense, but he really made the most of the opportunities he had. All four of Wright's touchdowns on the year came in Detroit victories, including his touchdown late against the Jets that was the game winner. Wright is a very capable blocker and has had a nice start to his career after going undrafted in 2021."

Cruzer also points out:

 

I don't know if Wright = Michael Mayer... but the Lions are perfectly content to go with Mitchell, Wright & Zylstra again next year.

That was based on the personnel he had, not how he would utilize a prospective new draft pick. 

[1984Echoes]

25 minutes ago, Longgone said:

That was based on the personnel he had, not how he would utilize a prospective new draft pick. 

 

He had Hockenson for 7 of 17 games. And they still ended up with 11% 2-TE's. And more TD's to TE's on a per-game basis AFTER Hockenson was traded.

If he has a new draft pick at TE, it'll be a 5th rounder in the mold of Brock Wright or James Mitchell. And he will continue to emphasize motion/ 3 WR sets and 11% 2-TE's and use them (TE's) primarily for 1st downs and TD's, etc.

[MichiganCardinal]

3 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

The Lions already have a Micheal Mayer, but his name is Brock Wright. They are very similar players.

No they’re not. Both went to Notre Dame and that’s where similarities end. Brock Wright is a blocking tight end. He had 7 career receptions at ND and was on no one’s radar as a draftable prospect. He was signed as a UDFA and had to claw his way onto a roster spot by being a nasty SOB in the blocking game. And later showing an ability to catch the wide open pass.

Michael Mayer is a a pure pass-catching TE who set a ND record for career receptions out of that position with 180. In the scouting reports I’ve seen for him, the critique has been in his blocking abilities, that he’s seen more as a catch first, block only if I have to TE.

If you want to argue the latter (Mayer’s) position isn’t really necessary in the Lions offense because of the creativity in scheming open the TEs they have, I think there is an argument to be made. Plenty of offenses are potent without a world-beating early round TE receiving threat. But they’re vastly different players.

[Longgone]

13 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

 

He had Hockenson for 7 of 17 games. And they still ended up with 11% 2-TE's. And more TD's to TE's on a per-game basis AFTER Hockenson was traded.

If he has a new draft pick at TE, it'll be a 5th rounder in the mold of Brock Wright or James Mitchell. And he will continue to emphasize motion/ 3 WR sets and 11% 2-TE's and use them (TE's) primarily for 1st downs and TD's, etc.

You are making assumptions based on particular circumstances. If Johnson/Campbell have a weapon they will use it, they don't have a rote offense. TE talent right now is below average and could use an upgrade.

[NYLion]

18 hours ago, Longgone said:

I know lions fans are techy about drafting a tight end high, but it is one of their weaker position groups, they run a lot of two te sets, and a top te would open up a lot of other possibilities for their offense.

It's not really. The TE isn't featured prominently in the passing game in this offense, moreso in the running game, and they have 3 young tight ends that scored a whole bunch of TDs once Hock was traded. Taking a tight end in the 1st round would be absolute madness.

Edited February 19, 2023 by NYLion

[Motown Bombers]

Hockenson's production went up after he left Detroit. In Minnesota Hockenson was averaging nearly 2.5 more targets per game. He was on pace for over 100 catches with Minnesota. If the Lions were going to take a TE in the upper rounds, they would have just kept Hockenson and used him the way Minnesota did. 

[MichiganCardinal]

I wouldn't completely rule out taking a TE relatively high, for the same reasons I wouldn't rule out taking a RB. Though the positional value isn't immense, the relative value of adding to the offense is greater than adding to the defense, and with five picks across the first three rounds, you have some capital to play with.

I don't think it will happen in the 1st round barring a trade back though, because I don't think the value is there with any of the TEs at 18. I would love to see someone like Darnell Washington be considered in the 2nd or 3rd though. He is a 6'7"/270lb beast of a blocker in the run game that can go up and catch the ball too. He may fall to the mid-2nd or 3rd round only because of the depth at the position in this draft class and his receiving production at Georgia having been overshadowed by other TEs at Georgia (notably Brock Bowers). I think he is TE1 easily if he went to a Big Ten school. Washington lined up next to Sewell or Decker could take our outside run game to the next level, in addition to being a threat in the air.

EDGE or DT / RB / CB / TE / OG in the first three rounds, alongside a free agent CB1, sets up the offense to be elite and the defense to be average to good, and that's all you need to be a very competitive team in the NFL.

[Stanley70]

If they don't retain Chark I can see WR being a potential target on the top 2 rounds. Beyond ARSB Jamo has all of about 5 career targets and Reynolds and Raymond are more 4/5 types than starters. 

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

...

EDGE or DT / RB / CB / TE / OG in the first three rounds, alongside a free agent CB1, sets up the offense to be elite and the defense to be average to good, and that's all you need to be a very competitive team in the NFL.

Add in a play-making LB'er...

[1984Echoes]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

Add in a play-making LB'er...

And I would put LB'er definitely above TE. And equal to all the other positions you listed.

[MichiganCardinal]

4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Add in a play-making LB'er...

I was between LB and OG with the 3rd round pick. I think there will be both good guards and linebackers available in the 3rd round. Not Micah Parsons good, but good enough to rotate in with Rodrigo and Anzalone if he's brought back.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

If they don't retain Chark I can see WR being a potential target on the top 2 rounds. Beyond ARSB Jamo has all of about 5 career targets and Reynolds and Raymond are more 4/5 types than starters. 

I can see 5th and 6th round picks on a TE and WR.

There will be flyer WR's available throughout the draft (late-rounders tend to be smallish with deep speed, or slower (not what we're looking for), or from small schools and overlooked, or with deep speed but not the greatest hands or route-running).

Flawed, but can be used in a Chark way if you find the right guy.

TE's can easily be found in the mid-to-late rounds to do exactly what the Lions need them to do: compete with Mitchell/ Wright/ Zylstra to make the roster. Block. And get open for an occasional 1st down or TE (where their size advantage but little in the way of YAC is most useful...).

Darnell Washington does sound appealing... I'd like an additional 2nd or 3rd rounder though, to hit all the needs we're listing with high round prospects if we are including TE. Otherwise I'd prefer a later round TE and a LB'er selected within the top 5 picks.

Although add in a developmental QB and that throws all this logic out the window...

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I was between LB and OG with the 3rd round pick. I think there will be both good guards and linebackers available in the 3rd round. Not Micah Parsons good, but good enough to rotate in with Rodrigo and Anzalone if he's brought back.

I really like Trenton Simpson, but he looks like a 1st rounder... around our #18 pick. My preference is Myles Murphy/ Best CB available at #18. But if Holmes can squeeze extra picks from Carolina and we select at #9 for the top CB, now I'm looking at either Bijan at #18 or Simpson.

Otherwise, I like DeMarvion Overshown in the 2nd.

Both are as much safeties as LB'ers. Can cover sideline-to-sideline, and can cover TE's/ RB's/ slot receivers/ break up passes. And can also rush. I'm looking for a certain type... as you can see. Perfect guy to sit Anzalone on passing downs and play the coverage game. Might specifically help us with our pitiful TE/ middle-of-the-field coverage we always seem to struggle with...

[1984Echoes]

6 hours ago, Longgone said:

You are making assumptions based on particular circumstances. If Johnson/Campbell have a weapon they will use it, they don't have a rote offense. TE talent right now is below average and could use an upgrade.

I am making assumptions on how Johnson ACTUALLY uses TE's.

[Motor City Sonics]

7 hours ago, Longgone said:

You are making assumptions based on particular circumstances. If Johnson/Campbell have a weapon they will use it, they don't have a rote offense. TE talent right now is below average and could use an upgrade.

All I can think of now is Tobin Rote.  The last QB to lead them to a title 59-17 win, prompting Bobby Layne to be traded to Pittsburgh (who were worse then than the Lions are in this era), and the curse being implemented.   

 

I think the fact that they don't have a big name TE is not a huge drawback for them.  They got a lot of usage out of the three guys they have.   Because none of them are stars, teams seem to forget about them.   The Jets were paying no attention to Brock Wright on that huge TD.    Having less actually seems to work in their favor.  

[1984Echoes]

Plus, TE's for the most part, and that includes specifically Hockenson, are not usually YAC guys.

Hockenson is not a YAC guy. Gronkowski, Witten, Kelce, and Kellen Winslow were YAC guys.

If you're not a YAC TE, then you're good for a catch and either a fall-down, or maybe a couple extra yards. Not a catch and outrun the defense for another 20 yards. Wright was an exception on that one play but that was broken coverage by the defense.

TE's have an advantage with size, and with a high completion rate because of that size advantage over most coverage guys on the defense. But since they tend to fall down immediately after the catch/ tackle... They are good for 1st downs (high completion %/ size advantage/ get the necessary yards and then go down) or TD's. NOT for breaking down a defense with explosive plays. And Hockenson fits THIS description, not the Winslow/ Gronk/ etc. description.

On that basis... Johnson is using/ scheming TE's correctly. Don't need a Hock because he doesn't do anything more than what we need out of a TE than what the 3 other guys provided. And Hock didn't make this offense better, he made it less efficient.

So unless someone can guarantee that Mayer is the next coming of Kellen Winslow... I'm not interested. 

[Longgone]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I am making assumptions on how Johnson ACTUALLY uses TE's.

The concept that you don't need to upgrade a position group because " they were just fine with what they had last year" is ludicrous. The idea is simple; better talent gives you better matchups and a competitive advantage, and this is just as true at TE as any other position. The thinking that you don't need to upgrade talent because you can scheme around it is faulty. 

[Jason_R]

If Holmes ever picks a TE before pick 100 I’ll eat my hat. 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Longgone said:

The concept that you don't need to upgrade a position group because " they were just fine with what they had last year" is ludicrous. The idea is simple; better talent gives you better matchups and a competitive advantage, and this is just as true at TE as any other position. The thinking that you don't need to upgrade talent because you can scheme around it is faulty. 

Here's what's ludicrous:

Your argument is basically: "Let's draft the best TE in the draft because that could be really fun."

Versus:

How do we win more games.

I'm sorry... but I am interested in how Holmes/ Campbell/ Johnson are building this team... not your method.

I think what you are arguing for is asinine, to be honest.

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

Here's what's ludicrous:

Your argument is basically: "Let's draft the best TE in the draft because that could be really fun."

Versus:

How do we win more games.

I'm sorry... but I am interested in how Holmes/ Campbell/ Johnson are building this team... not your method.

I think what you are arguing for is asinine, to be honest.

That's not at all my argument. Of course some other position groups may more desperately be in need of an upgrade. But you don't overlook the tight end position if that player is the best value on your board, and that position is not currently a strength in your system, and you certainly don't pass them up for the illogical reasons that you have presented, presuming that you know how Holmes and Campbell value tight ends.

 

[1984Echoes]

7 minutes ago, Longgone said:

... for the illogical reasons that you have presented, presuming that you know how Holmes and Campbell value tight ends.

They don't value TE's as 1st rounders.

That's very logical.

You just don't seem to get it... And I'm not the only one trying to get you to understand that. You just... don't.

[Longgone]

30 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

They don't value TE's as 1st rounders.

That's very logical.

You just don't seem to get it... And I'm not the only one trying to get you to understand that. You just... don't.

Pretending you know how they will value individual players is cute. And I never said one word about taking anyone in the first round.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Longgone

[1984Echoes]

41 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Pretending you know how they will value individual players is cute. And I never said one word about taking anyone in the first round.

Excuse me?

This whole thing started with you stating you wanted Mayer selected at #18.

[Longgone]

6 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Excuse me?

This whole thing started with you stating you wanted Mayer selected at #18.

No, I said there was justification for upgrading the position and I wouldn't bitch about it, not that i wanted or expected it. Mostly I strenuously disagree with your premise that no upgrade is needed for the specious reasons you offered.

[Cruzer1]

21 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

No they’re not. Both went to Notre Dame and that’s where similarities end. Brock Wright is a blocking tight end. He had 7 career receptions at ND and was on no one’s radar as a draftable prospect. He was signed as a UDFA and had to claw his way onto a roster spot by being a nasty SOB in the blocking game. And later showing an ability to catch the wide open pass.

Michael Mayer is a a pure pass-catching TE who set a ND record for career receptions out of that position with 180. In the scouting reports I’ve seen for him, the critique has been in his blocking abilities, that he’s seen more as a catch first, block only if I have to TE.

If you want to argue the latter (Mayer’s) position isn’t really necessary in the Lions offense because of the creativity in scheming open the TEs they have, I think there is an argument to be made. Plenty of offenses are potent without a world-beating early round TE receiving threat. But they’re vastly different players.

You're going off other people's opinions, and questioning my opinion? Thanks.