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2023 NFL Draft Thread


Mr.TaterSalad

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56 minutes ago, NYLion said:

because a Tight End will never be the featured receiver in this offense. Hockenson was a top 10 TE, some would argue close to top 5, and he barely moved the needle here.

You keep repeating these things and they just aren't true, Hockenson was a key component of Detroit's passing game. Detroit in no way runs an offense that devalues tight ends, it does require them to block, however.

Stating a slot receiver can replace all that a top te can do is ignorance, the roles complement and supplemental each other. A te that can threaten 3 levels would only open things up for arsb.

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49 minutes ago, Longgone said:

You keep repeating these things and they just aren't true, Hockenson was a key component of Detroit's passing game.

This is true. Second leading receiver on the team and second leading TE in NFL in receptions/game, YPG, and targets per game.

Still, they won without him. 

Yes, in a vacuum a team will improve if you upgrade a position. But you don’t build a team in a vacuum. Hock deserves a big contract. I’m glad Detroit won’t give it to him and I don’t want to see them draft another TE before the fourth round. 

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

You keep repeating these things and they just aren't true, Hockenson was a key component of Detroit's passing game. Detroit in no way runs an offense that devalues tight ends, it does require them to block, however.

Stating a slot receiver can replace all that a top te can do is ignorance, the roles complement and supplemental each other. A te that can threaten 3 levels would only open things up for arsb.

The team was 4-19 with Hock the last two seasons, he didn't move the needle. He had a couple of really long receptions this season, otherwise he was largely a non-factor. Meanwhile, Zylstra alone who was an undrafted free agent btw had more TDs than Hockenson did with the Lions last season. Not to mention Brock Wright who is a MUCH better blocker and also had more TDs than Hockenson had with the Lions last season and who was also an undrafted free agent btw (further illustrating Holmes great eye for talent). I could go on and on about why it's a bad idea to draft a TE in the 1st round (Lions history with that, most great TEs are drafted outside the 1st) unless it's a very unique circumstance but I think you know where I'm going with this.

Edited by NYLion
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8 minutes ago, NYLion said:

The team was 4-19 with Hock the last two seasons, he didn't move the needle. He had a couple of really long receptions this season, otherwise he was largely a non-factor. Meanwhile, Zylstra alone who was an undrafted free agent btw had more TDs than Hockenson did with the Lions last season. Not to mention Brock Wright who is a MUCH better blocker and also had more TDs than Hockenson had with the Lions last season and who was also an undrafted free agent btw (further illustrating Holmes great eye for talent). I could go on and on about why it's a bad idea to draft a TE in the 1st round (Lions history with that, most great TEs are drafted outside the 1st) unless it's a very unique circumstance but I think you know where I'm going with this.

Here is the disconnect. You claim that tight ends lack value because not many work out. Tight ends have tremendous value because it is a very difficult position to play well and requires a rare blend of attributes; size, strength, speed, agility, quicks, smarts. If you have a good one, they are gold.

Secondly, Hockenson was a very productive receiver. To diminish his role in the offense because they weren't winning is disingenuous. I believe he had some issues with blocking, focus and route running that soured Detroit on him, but if you think the current trio is in any way, shape or form an equal talent replacement for Hockenson, much less a potentially more balanced top tight end, then I question your judgement.

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29 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I will say, the discussion surrounding the relative usefulness of early to mid round tight ends to the offensive scheme is a welcomed change of pace from most off-seasons where we are at each other’s throats about whether to fire everybody (again) and start over (again).

LOL - agreed.

And I don't think Hockenson turned out be anything special either. :classic_tongue:

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10 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Fair enough. We are on the same page there then. I too would much prefer Washington to Mayer. I think he fits the team better, has a higher ceiling, and will be available in the 2nd, maybe even 3rd round.

I don't think Washington has a higher ceiling, but absolutely agree he fits the team better.  Additionally we could use those earlier picks for Defense which is a much more pressing need.  

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

Here is the disconnect. You claim that tight ends lack value because not many work out. Tight ends have tremendous value because it is a very difficult position to play well and requires a rare blend of attributes; size, strength, speed, agility, quicks, smarts. If you have a good one, they are gold.

Secondly, Hockenson was a very productive receiver. To diminish his role in the offense because they weren't winning is disingenuous. I believe he had some issues with blocking, focus and route running that soured Detroit on him, but if you think the current trio is in any way, shape or form an equal talent replacement for Hockenson, much less a potentially more balanced top tight end, then I question your judgement.

Hock is a perfect example of why it's a bad idea to take a TE in the 1st round and he was dealt, not because he wasn't a solid player, but because he's not good enough to warrant a 2nd contract for this particular team and Holmes smartly traded him for some value rather than overpay him for a role that wouldn't be worth what he's making. Hock is actually an above average TE and was still a failed pick. 

As I said before, the Lions had 3 TE's that were much cheaper, provided better blocking and scored many more TDs (which is where the real mismatches are), all three of which were undrafted and drafted in the 5th round. Yeah they didn't have as many receptions between the 20s but they provided more of a balance for MUCH less money, plus the Lions got improved beans out of it. I'm not against taking a TE somewhere in the draft but very little interest in taking one in the first 3 rounds. There's just so many more avenues where draft capital is better spent (pretty much every other position really).

Edited by NYLion
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Brock Wright and James Mitchell are better than Hock anyways.

Hock's career pass-catch rate was 66% of his targets. That's terrible for a TE.

Brock Wright is at 75% which is where the better TE's reside. 

Mitchell caught 100% of his targets.

They are both superior blockers. And superior receivers.

No need to upgrade because we've already upgraded.

Wright was undrafted and Mitchell was a 5th rounder?  If Holmes wants to "upgrade" or add another TE to the room I suspect he will use a 5th or 6th or undrafted FA again to find TE's that are CLEAR upgrades over Hock and what other uninformed proletariats "think" are good TE's.

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The discussion about TEs is running a lot like the discussion of QBs. Yes, there are TE's out there that are the kinds of difference makers that justify a high pick, but they are rare and it's almost unknowable if a guy in the draft will be one of them. Hockensen had about as much buzz as any TE coming out and he has still ended far short of being a Winslow or Kelce. And sure, at some point another QB is going to come out who is as good a pro as Mahomes, but this year it's a pure crapshoot that Young or Stroud is that guy, just by the numbers neither likely is.

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2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I will say, the discussion surrounding the relative usefulness of early to mid round tight ends to the offensive scheme is a welcomed change of pace from most off-seasons where we are at each other’s throats about whether to fire everybody (again) and start over (again).

Believe you me, if Michael Mayer is the Lions pick at #6 like some random football analyst on Twitter mocked a month or so ago, we can have that fire everyone conversation again lol

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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

... far short of being a Winslow or Kelce...

And being the unicorns that they were ... most TE's will never amount to the next Winslow, Kelce, Gronk, or Witten.

Their best skills are high catch rate (due to size advantage over defenders and better ability to take a hit and hold onto the ball...). Not game-breaking bust-a-move receivers. Aside from a select few that is. And again, those are unicorns. I am not into finding a truckload of fool's gold by chasing unicorns.

So most of the good ones are good for blocking, moving the chains, and red zone advantage, and high catch rate.

Exactly how Johnson uses them.

We already have two talents that do exactly that... so who out there is actually an improvement? Not who someone thinks there is...

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10 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Brock Wright and James Mitchell are better than Hock anyways.

You lose all credibility when you make statements like this. I know the Lions like Mitchell, and he probably would have gone in the 3rd if he'd been healthy, so he's a decent prospect, but he has no outstanding traits, so his ceiling is probably a #2. 

Wright and Zylstra are both bottom of the roster players who have complementary traits (to each other), okay as a stop gap but offer no competitive advantage, and the NFL, like most sports, is a game of mismatches, the team who can create the most generally wins.

Sure, you can get by with mediocre, and it isn't feasible to be dominant at every position, but generally, talent rules.

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45 minutes ago, Longgone said:

You lose all credibility when you make statements like this. I know the Lions like Mitchell...

Okay, first I agree with everything you said here, so this isn't trying to say that Hock was bad.  But, an idea that just popped into my head: Could the reason that our TEs seemed to have so much success after Hock left be because they were inferior talents? 

What I mean is that Hock was a known threat.  He may not have been 'Kelce' level, but he had skills and defenses knew he was a danger and so paid attention to him. Now I'm not saying that defense just forgot about any TE on the Lions roster after Hock left, but I'm also sure that defenses paid a lot less attention to game planning around Mitchell and co. vs. Hock.

(Disclaimer here: I am NOT advocating that the Lions should get rid of star talent so defenses underestimate them so they can surprise the opposition.  I'm not saying that no-name TEs will work better than a star name.  I'm saying in this one instance were a team started out with a TE that defenses had to account for in game planning suddenly loses that TE... maybe opponents were caught off guard a little.)

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

You lose all credibility when you make statements like this. I know the Lions like Mitchell, and he probably would have gone in the 3rd if he'd been healthy, so he's a decent prospect, but he has no outstanding traits, so his ceiling is probably a #2. 

Wright and Zylstra are both bottom of the roster players who have complementary traits (to each other), okay as a stop gap but offer no competitive advantage, and the NFL, like most sports, is a game of mismatches, the team who can create the most generally wins.

Sure, you can get by with mediocre, and it isn't feasible to be dominant at every position, but generally, talent rules.

you are assuming Hock was good enough that other teams schemed against him. I could be persuaded of that but I would want to see some evidence.

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43 minutes ago, Longgone said:

I didn't even mention Hockenson?

LOL - actually LG, you are completely right, I meant to quote RedR's post there and accidentally got yours instead. It was his speculation that maybe the other guys looked better because they weren't being paid attention to, which conversely means that if true teams were 'paying attention to' i.e. doing some kind of scheming for Hock

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

you are assuming Hock was good enough that other teams schemed against him. I could be persuaded of that but I would want to see some evidence.

A lot of the TDs to Wright and Zylstra were wide open. I'm not sure Hockenson is as wide open as Wright and Zylstra on some of these TDs. Most of the time they were blocking and then slipped out. No team is going to just lose track of Hockenson like that in the end zone, at least not as often. 

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3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

A lot of the TDs to Wright and Zylstra were wide open. I'm not sure Hockenson is as wide open as Wright and Zylstra on some of these TDs. Most of the time they were blocking and then slipped out. No team is going to just lose track of Hockenson like that in the end zone, at least not as often. 

Of course if a guy is not a great blocker, he has less credibility to burn to start out as a blocker and then slip into a pattern uncovered.

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Speaking of Spielman just watched this video a little bit ago where he talks about the combine and "workout warriors". Nothing that most people don't already know but it was cool to see him specifically bring up ARSB as to why you shouldn't put all your stock in workouts and most notably 40 times.

 

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