2024 Presidential Election Thread

[CMRivdogs]

 

[Motor City Sonics]

I think Mark Kelly might be a good candidate,  and Tim Ryan too.  Democrats need to get past just nominating the most previously famous person.       Just because Ryan didn't win Ohio, it doesn't mean he doesn't play well elsewhere.    Big Gretch in '24 !!!!!    No seriously, if she has a really good 2nd term, and I think she will, she will be near the top of the list in 2028.    And you know who the Republicans will have in 2028.  The Simpsons predicted it:     

[CMRivdogs]

Interesting thread on populist movement candidates. They are usually not as successful the second time around....

Read the whole thread..

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

Interesting thread on populist movement candidates. They are usually not as successful the second time around....

Read the whole thread..

This is the best tweet of that thread/ quote (truncated...):

"I think the reason you see a number of right-wing activists turning on Trump himself is simply that ... (p)olitically he's becoming an obsolete husk. "

 

Obsolete Husk.

I like that picture...

[Motown Bombers]

And people want someone else to run.

 

[pfife]

 

[mtutiger]

This is spot on.

Elite conservative messaging against Trump is a requirement for breaking the fever, but it very well may not be sufficient because of the voters and how their preferences may differ.

[Motor City Sonics]

32 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This is spot on.

Elite conservative messaging against Trump is a requirement for breaking the fever, but it very well may not be sufficient because of the voters and how their preferences may differ.

In some areas, not all, they will keep voting for the Trumpiest candidates in the primaries.    What can the GOP do?   They can't stop someone from running (unless they pull some petition shenanigans like they did in Michigan this year to keep people off the ballot).    It's like they are on cocaine (I have never taken coke, I swear), but they get that rush from it, even though they know it's bad, and then they keep trying to find that rush again and they can't quite get  it and then they finally quit taking it, their lives are in shambles.       They are stuck with him until he dies and if they think he cares about the party, HA!  Nominate DeSantis, he'll run as a third party.  He won't need money to campaign, he'll campaign on Twitter (if it's still around) and never leave Florida..........and he siphon enough votes to cripple Republicans in the General and hand it to the Democrats, he'll do it just out of spite -  just watch, it's going to happen.    I can see it now, a Presidential Debate with DeSantis and Chris Murphy or whomever, and Trump.........blathering on and on and interrupting and yelling and the other two look at each other like "get us out of here"   Trump runs as a third party (can't wait to hear what he calls it) and that map is going to be covered in blue.  

[CMRivdogs]

17 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:he'll campaign on Twitter (if it's still around) and never leave Florida..........

He needs the rallies. It's the fuel that drives him, all that love from the tens of people that attend.

It's a bit like those who follow some has been one hit wonder rock star. Give him a chance to perform his greatest hit over and over.

[Tigerbomb13]

As sick as we are of Trump, I’m now all on board with as many in the GOP supporting him as possible. Let’s make this country even bluer!

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

He needs the rallies. It's the fuel that drives him, all that love from the tens of people that attend.

It's a bit like those who follow some has been one hit wonder rock star. Give him a chance to perform his greatest hit over and over.

I saw Joe Jackson once and he said "Here's a medley of my greatest hit" and played Is She Really Going Out With Him.    Your quote made me think of that.  

[Motor City Sonics]

Y'all are stuck with him.     He gonna burn you to the ground, just because he can.    LOL.    Flick the lights on and they scatter like cockroaches...........but they're in a sealed container and can't hide.    (Evil Laugh..............)

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I saw Joe Jackson once and he said "Here's a medley of my greatest hit" and played Is She Really Going Out With Him.    Your quote made me think of that.  

He's modest. "Stepping Out" did pretty well....

[chasfh]

That’s right, boys, keep up that “voters are stupid” messaging all the way through 2024. And share it with your brethren in other states while you’re at it.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/elections/ct-illinois-gop-future-uncertainty-20221113-bovtlji5izdn5oj55y7t3lgj3u-story.html

 

Illinois’ Republican Party teeters on the edge of irrelevance from the shellacking it received Tuesday when voters backed a blue wave of Democrats and rejected the GOP’s further rightward movement that has been accelerated by former President Donald Trump and its lockstep ideology.

…

The GOP losses symbolize a political party that has failed to adapt to the changing diverse demographics of the suburbs, moving from a message of social moderation and fiscal conservatism to a rigid-right ideology that is aging along with its dwindling base.

And with the possibility of Republicans being led by a new White House bid by Trump in a state that twice rejected his general election candidacy by 17 percentage points, the prospects for the GOP in 2024, with larger presidential year election turnout, may get even worse.

Don Tracy, who chairs the state GOP, called the results “very disappointing” and acknowledged Republicans did “terrible in the suburbs.”

But he did not mention candidate quality, party ideology or the Trump factor in his weekly “chairman’s memo” to the Republican faithful. Instead, he blamed the Republicans’ poor showing on “Pritzker-bucks,” a “well-oiled” Democratic operation for mail-in and early voting and “the advantages of incumbency.”

”We had lots of really great candidates” who were “constantly attacked by the Democrats on abortion, made-up issues and alleged extremism,” Tracy said. “In the comingdays/weeks, we will be doing a deeper analysis on the elections and will share our thoughts on how best to move forward.”

Edited November 13, 2022 by chasfh

[mtutiger]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

That’s right, boys, keep up that “voters are stupid” messaging all the way through 2024. And share it with your brethren in other states while you’re at it.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/elections/ct-illinois-gop-future-uncertainty-20221113-bovtlji5izdn5oj55y7t3lgj3u-story.html

 

Illinois’ Republican Party teeters on the edge of irrelevance from the shellacking it received Tuesday when voters backed a blue wave of Democrats and rejected the GOP’s further rightward movement that has been accelerated by former President Donald Trump and its lockstep ideology.

…

The GOP losses symbolize a political party that has failed to adapt to the changing diverse demographics of the suburbs, moving from a message of social moderation and fiscal conservatism to a rigid-right ideology that is aging along with its dwindling base.

And with the possibility of Republicans being led by a new White House bid by Trump in a state that twice rejected his general election candidacy by 17 percentage points, the prospects for the GOP in 2024, with larger presidential year election turnout, may get even worse.

Don Tracy, who chairs the state GOP, called the results “very disappointing” and acknowledged Republicans did “terrible in the suburbs.”

But he did not mention candidate quality, party ideology or the Trump factor in his weekly “chairman’s memo” to the Republican faithful. Instead, he blamed the Republicans’ poor showing on “Pritzker-bucks,” a “well-oiled” Democratic operation for mail-in and early voting and “the advantages of incumbency.”

”We had lots of really great candidates” who were “constantly attacked by the Democrats on abortion, made-up issues and alleged extremism,” Tracy said. “In the comingdays/weeks, we will be doing a deeper analysis on the elections and will share our thoughts on how best to move forward.”

They can start by nominating candidates who can actually win in Lake County versus doing fan service downstate.

(Spoiler alert: not gonna happen)

Edited November 13, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

 

[Motor City Sonics]

Prediction

(D)  Mark Kelly / Amy Klobuchar

(R) Ron DeSantis / Joni Ernst

(T) Donald Trump / Kristi Noem  

[ewsieg]

As the resident MAGA poster (not because i've ever voted for him, but because i've questioned dem policies), he's done.  It's over.  The only thing that was ever going to stop him was losing.  The GOP was going to swallow their pride as long as they were winning.  There was evidence already that while you had to have Trump in your corner to win a primary, it wasn't going to help in the general election.  This past week proved that's absolutely the case.  

Why are there no successful third parties in US politics?  Because once a party realizes they are on the losing end of an issue, they change course.  Either the GOP cuts ties with Trump or they lose.  For the MCS prediction above, if Kelly can get close to 50% of the vote, he wins by 20% over DeSantis, Trump comes in third.

[gehringer_2]

6 hours ago, ewsieg said:

The GOP was going to swallow their pride as long as they were winning.  There was evidence already that while you had to have Trump in your corner to win a primary, it wasn't going to help in the general election.  This past week proved that's absolutely the case.  

I understand the logic, and will be happy if it's true, but don't forget that Trump won the primaries in 2016 without the party backing him, though he was getting a big boost from Fox. The cult of personality guys can have a lot of staying power - look at Berlusconi in Italy (and maybe Netanyahu is moving into this class), he just kept coming back when he shoud have been dead and buried.

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I understand the logic, and will be happy if it's true, but don't forget that Trump won the primaries in 2016 without the party backing him, though he was getting a big boost from Fox. The cult of personality guys can have a lot of staying power - look at Berlusconi in Italy (and maybe Netanyahu is moving into this class), he just kept coming back when he shoud have been dead and buried.

And again, it comes down to the actual voters. I kind of agree that the GOP elite is done with him at the moment. And certainly elite messaging against him can have an impact to a degree as well. But until the actual voters drop him, you really can't declare him done IMO.

I'm curious to see some polling in the next couple of weeks to see if the voters match where the elites are, because something tells me they won't. Which in turn will mean that we are likely in another post-Jan 6 interregnum period where the GOP is floating trial balloons versus taking actual concrete steps away.

[chasfh]

6 hours ago, ewsieg said:

As the resident MAGA poster (not because i've ever voted for him, but because i've questioned dem policies), he's done.  It's over.  The only thing that was ever going to stop him was losing.  The GOP was going to swallow their pride as long as they were winning.  There was evidence already that while you had to have Trump in your corner to win a primary, it wasn't going to help in the general election.  This past week proved that's absolutely the case.  

Why are there no successful third parties in US politics?  Because once a party realizes they are on the losing end of an issue, they change course.  Either the GOP cuts ties with Trump or they lose.  For the MCS prediction above, if Kelly can get close to 50% of the vote, he wins by 20% over DeSantis, Trump comes in third.

If Trump is done and gone, then he’s taking a few million voters with him, because there must be at least that many who vote only for him.

The question then becomes how many of those lost votes might be offset by moderate conservatives coming back to the party, those who used to reliably vote Republican but reluctantly went Democrat or stopped voting because the party went nuts. If the Mitts were to become ascendant again, how of those exiles many would come back?

If it’s a 1:1 ratio coming back, Republicans might be OK, or even better off if the ratio is more than 1:1. I don’t think it is, though—I think Trump energized the voting process and drove more R voters to the polls, and Republican pols must agree, because otherwise why would they have been so eager to debase themselves by publicly fawning all over him?

A complicating factor, though, is how the Republican base has become fractured among three distinct constituencies I can identify: the exiled Mitts; the ride-or-die red hats; and a faction that digs the cruelty and the fascism Trump unearthed in his base but without all the crazy acting out—those are people who would gladly vote for DeSantis or Abbott over both Mitt and Trump. That’s probably where the religious right will park their votes.

If Trump gets spun out, finally, can the party reconcile the remaining two factions? Who caves for the other? I think it’s more likely the Mitts cave for the Christo-fascists, which they will justify because tax cuts, because they really don’t care or think about the social issues much. That would not only be sad, that would make it harder for Democrats to run against and win.

[chasfh]

7 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Why are there no successful third parties in US politics?  Because once a party realizes they are on the losing end of an issue, they change course.  Either the GOP cuts ties with Trump or they lose.  For the MCS prediction above, if Kelly can get close to 50% of the vote, he wins by 20% over DeSantis, Trump comes in third.

The true reason there are no third parties is because the system is designed for only two parties, and the reason for that is the way the president is chosen.

The president must be elected with at least 50% of specially-designated Electoral Votes which roughly correlates to the popular vote. If no candidate achieves that, there is then a one-state-one-vote special election in the House to choose the president, a solution designed to favor incumbent parties over upstarts, since there are no third parties in Congress to support the third candidate.

Since there is practically no chance a third party can put a president in the White House, almost no rookie politician would choose to go into a third party in the first place. A third party may align better ideologically with the rookie, but politicians are more practical than ideological, and, notable exceptions notwithstanding, any person choosing politics as a career who wants to have any influence within the system at all will have to be on one of the two big teams.

The only way I can see a third party getting a seat at the adult’s table, within the current system, would be through a mass defection from one of the two current parties, and that would result in a power shift from the dying party to a second big party, rather than becoming a true power-sharing arrangement with a major third party.

The only other way, if America ever truly wanted more than two major parties, would be to ditch our current system in favor of a parliamentary democracy, which would require a complete rewriting of the Constitution.

Edited November 14, 2022 by chasfh

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, chasfh said:

question then becomes how many of those lost votes might be offset

I would guess that for many moderate conservatives - Lincoln project types, there will still be the question of whether anyone who collaborated can be trusted or supported again, so while some of those people would be willing to come back, they may only do it new generation of a candidates. I would think guys like Cruz who would try to slide back into their old forms would still be rejected.

[Jim Cowan]

Two years is a long, long time.  Trump is a long way from dead.

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The only way I can see a third party getting a seat at the adult’s table,

Yes - the most a third party can do is push an item onto the agenda for the other two - i.e. Perot and trade, which isn't nothing, but it will never be a win either.