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2024 Presidential Election Thread


oblong

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15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I would guess that for many moderate conservatives - Lincoln project types, there will still be the question of whether anyone who collaborated can be trusted or supported again, so while some of those people would be willing to come back, they may only do it new generation of a candidates. I would think guys like Cruz who would try to slide back into their old forms would still be rejected.

Cruz would be an easy reject because he is so offensive personally, and he was a wackjob from Day 1. I wonder whether someone like Elise Stefanik, who started out as a mainstream conservative and then went completely off the reservation to keep her seat because of Trump, could slither back into the mainstream under the radar and undetected by the American media and people.

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3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

and of course the actuarial table never loses in the end. For Trump (or Biden!) 2 more yrs could easily end up being more than the remaining heartbeats alloted.

Or for any of us!  But having made it this far, the tables would give them both several more years, 8 or so.

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13 hours ago, ewsieg said:

As the resident MAGA poster (not because i've ever voted for him, but because i've questioned dem policies), he's done.  It's over.  The only thing that was ever going to stop him was losing.  The GOP was going to swallow their pride as long as they were winning.  There was evidence already that while you had to have Trump in your corner to win a primary, it wasn't going to help in the general election.  This past week proved that's absolutely the case.  

Why are there no successful third parties in US politics?  Because once a party realizes they are on the losing end of an issue, they change course.  Either the GOP cuts ties with Trump or they lose.  For the MCS prediction above, if Kelly can get close to 50% of the vote, he wins by 20% over DeSantis, Trump comes in third.

I believe this is all true...

I just want to hear the fat lady sing...

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6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I understand the logic, and will be happy if it's true, but don't forget that Trump won the primaries in 2016 without the party backing him, though he was getting a big boost from Fox. The cult of personality guys can have a lot of staying power - look at Berlusconi in Italy (and maybe Netanyahu is moving into this class), he just kept coming back when he should have been dead and buried.

OR...

When I see the nails in Trump's coffin. (referencing my post from above...).

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6 hours ago, chasfh said:

... The only way I can see a third party getting a seat at the adult’s table, within the current system, would be through a mass defection from one of the two current parties, and that would result in a power shift from the dying party to a second big party, rather than becoming a true power-sharing arrangement with a major third party...

Long-term, that's the way I see it.

Short-term, I'm hoping Trump is forced, and jumps, at going 3rd party anyways. 

I think that would create a certain level of destruction within the Republican party, which I want.

And from the ashes... we'll see what kind of Phoenix will arise.

Ideally, in my mind... a new Republican Party has to be more socially liberal than today's version.

But I might just be wish-casting...

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15 hours ago, oblong said:

 

Worth monitoring, but OTOH, he's still pulling over 30% in all of these places after being one of the main factors in their Midterm disappointment. In the midst of arguably the worst news cycle he's had since January 6th.

And those 30-37%, are they easily transferrable to a DeSantis or someone else should they win the nomination? Or does Trump sabatoge anyone who beats him?

Edited by mtutiger
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13 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Worth monitoring, but OTOH, he's still pulling over 30% in all of these places after being one of the main factors in their Midterm disappointment. In the midst of arguably the worst news cycle he's had since January 6th.

And those 30-37%, are they easily transferrable to a DeSantis or someone else should they win the nomination? Or does Trump sabatoge anyone who beats him?

He will sabatoge them.  He will never endorse someone else for the GOP nomination.  All he needs is to take his 3-5% of hardcare voters with them and it's over for the GOP.  IT's never been about policy for him. He'd endorse the democrat before he'd endorse the GOP nominee.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, oblong said:

He will sabatoge them.  He will never endorse someone else for the GOP nomination.  All he needs is to take his 3-5% of hardcare voters with them and it's over for the GOP.  IT's never been about policy for him. He'd endorse the democrat before he'd endorse the GOP nominee.

 

 

He'll run as a third party candidate just to punish Republicans for not nominating him, but if he still has 30--35 percent, it's enough to win primaries unless only 1 Republican runs against him.  That's not going to happen.   I wouldn't be shocked to see Liz Cheney run.  But there are other Republicans that want the nomination, not just DeSantis.   I think Nikki Haley may run, as well as Mike Pence and Glenn Youngkin.  Ted Cruz is going to run again.     Cruz is hated almost as much as Trump.    

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5 minutes ago, oblong said:

He will sabatoge them.  He will never endorse someone else for the GOP nomination.  All he needs is to take his 3-5% of hardcare voters with them and it's over for the GOP.  IT's never been about policy for him. He'd endorse the democrat before he'd endorse the GOP nominee.

 

 

Yep, you lie in bed with the dogs and you get fleas. I remember telling OMF that a long time ago on the old board and that reality is still there today.

I actually would love to be wrong on this, I really would... but when you drive around and still see people flying Donald Trump flags two years after an election, or billboards of businesses using "Lets Go Brandon", or "FJB" flags marketed by the Trump folks, that tells you that there are folks out there who not only support Donald Trump but have their identities centered around that support. That's not going to be easy to break, and I don't think Ron DeSantis is the guy to do it.

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21 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Or for any of us!  But having made it this far, the tables would give them both several more years, 8 or so.

They will get better healh care than any of us.  They may not have a great quality of life much longer, but they could be around a really long time.  

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3 hours ago, casimir said:

Sleepy Don really had the room in a tizzy, didn't he?

That's what I don't get...........the Trump people blasting Biden as old when Trump is, what, 3 1/2 years younger?   So Trump will be older in 2024 than Biden was in 2020..........and even though Biden does have some blithering moments, he had that back in the 80's.     Trump is all-blither - turned up to 11 - all the fucking time.   

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I figure I will post here, but a good substack/podcast from a really good Florida Investigative Journalist who covers some of the grift and corruption in the state government. I'm sharing because the notion that DeSantis is somehow more moderate than Trump or even some kind of libertarian is false. And here's some reciepts.

https://jasongarcia.substack.com/

 

One article on the ticking time bomb that is the Florida Home Insurance market teetering on the brink. That, or legal fallout from the Martha's Vineyard Stunt are the most likely downfalls. https://jasongarcia.substack.com/p/ron-desantis-could-have-made-lawmakers

Edited by Edman85
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2 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

That's what I don't get...........the Trump people blasting Biden as old when Trump is, what, 3 1/2 years younger?   So Trump will be older in 2024 than Biden was in 2020..........and even though Biden does have some blithering moments, he had that back in the 80's.     Trump is all-blither - turned up to 11 - all the fucking time.   

There are all sorts of contradictions by those that consider themselves Trumpers, but no need to rehash any of it, it’s all been brought up before.

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