gehringer_2 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) LOL! McCarthy is so untrustworthy he can't even trust himself - throws his hat back in the ring to be re-elected speaker! https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/09/house-republican-speaker/ Pointless windmill tilt though. He'd need some Dem support and I think he's just burned too many bridges there. Besides the Dems have to love having the best House GOP fund-raiser cut down. I would think if a half dozen Dems finally back a GOP speaker candidate to get the House off the snide even Scalise would be more likely than McCarthy. Edited October 9, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 18 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: LOL! McCarthy is so untrustworthy he can't even trust himself - throws his hat back in the ring to be re-elected speaker! https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/09/house-republican-speaker/ Pointless windmill tilt though. He'd need some Dem support and I think he's just burned too many bridges there. Besides the Dems have to love having the best House GOP fund-raiser cut down. I would think if a half dozen Dems finally back a GOP speaker candidate to get the House off the snide even Scalise would be more likely than McCarthy. What isn't clear at this point is whether any of the candidates (with or without McCarthy) are *anywhere* near 217. And I also think it's interesting that, for all the members who have declared a stated preference for Jordan or Scalise, there are still quite a few who have kept their powder dry. I suspect that a lot of these folks have bitterness / resentment toward the eight and aren't going to just move off of McCarthy that easily, however doomed a prospect that might be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 21 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: LOL! McCarthy is so untrustworthy he can't even trust himself - throws his hat back in the ring to be re-elected speaker! https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/09/house-republican-speaker/ Pointless windmill tilt though. He'd need some Dem support and I think he's just burned too many bridges there. Besides the Dems have to love having the best House GOP fund-raiser cut down. I would think if a half dozen Dems finally back a GOP speaker candidate to get the House off the snide even Scalise would be more likely than McCarthy. OK... My position is: Can we get Kevin McCarthy back as Speaker please...? No... I'm not going insane. My thinking is: There are 8 FU Republicans dead-set against him. Time to cut a deal with the Dems. Better representation on committees, etc., etc., etc., etc... I'll leave that up to McCarthy, Pubs and Dems to hammer out the details. Maybe that also means first two items on legislation list are Israel, and a combined Ukraine/ southern border bill. But looking at the wreckage... and I STILL would not trust McCarthy... this seems like the clearest and easiest way out. But the Republicans gotta "deal" with the Dems, regardless if it's McCarthy or anyone else. IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 (edited) 55 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: OK... My position is: Can we get Kevin McCarthy back as Speaker please...? No... I'm not going insane. My thinking is: There are 8 FU Republicans dead-set against him. Time to cut a deal with the Dems. Better representation on committees, etc., etc., etc., etc... I'll leave that up to McCarthy, Pubs and Dems to hammer out the details. Maybe that also means first two items on legislation list are Israel, and a combined Ukraine/ southern border bill. But looking at the wreckage... and I STILL would not trust McCarthy... this seems like the clearest and easiest way out. But the Republicans gotta "deal" with the Dems, regardless if it's McCarthy or anyone else. IMO. I'd have to find it, but I saw a tweet earlier today from a political reporter who suggested that McCarthy might still have 60-80 votes in the House. Like, yeah, he may still be dead man walking in the end, but 60-80 votes isn't exactly chicken feed.... like, they are going to have to negotiate something out if 60-80 hold out in favor of McCarthy being reinstated. EDIT: Edited October 10, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 McCarthy's Speakership had only one value - it demonstrated that giving away the store to a faction creates an unstable situation. We all knew this in January, but I guess it had to be proved to the GOP. So, I would think that leaves us in a situation where the majority of the GOP realizes that they can't just duplicate the McCarthy mistake with a new face - i.e. get someone into the job only after a long negotiation that buys enough fringe votes with giveaways that another unstable, unworkable Speakership is created. This is all pretty obvious to anyone capable of 2 + 2 = 4. The problem is that those GOP members still cannot face the crisis of tribal identity that a reach across the aisle for a consensus majority requires. And as is usually the case in human affairs, psychology will win out over logic and it will get even worse before it gets better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: .... And as is usually the case in human affairs, psychology will win out over logic and it will get even worse before it gets better. Could we just PLEASE get to this point already? Enough is enough. WTF is with all the ****ing fascism and threats of violence or civil war? Is this country ****ing kidding me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: McCarthy's Speakership had only one value - it demonstrated that giving away the store to a faction creates an unstable situation. We all knew this in January, but I guess it had to be proved to the GOP. So, I would think that leaves us in a situation where the majority of the GOP realizes that they can't just duplicate the McCarthy mistake with a new face - i.e. get someone into the job only after a long negotiation that buys enough fringe votes with giveaways that another unstable, unworkable Speakership is created. This is all pretty obvious to anyone capable of 2 + 2 = 4. The problem is that those GOP members still cannot face the crisis of tribal identity that a reach across the aisle for a consensus majority requires. And as is usually the case in human affairs, psychology will win out over logic and it will get even worse before it gets better. For something like the bolded to take place (ie. reaching across the aisle), it's basically going to require political hari-kuri to happen... I think that's a big reason why McCarthy wouldn't negotiate for Dem votes last time either, he knew that would be the end of his career beyond the 118th Congress. And really, at least at this point, I don't see the spine to do it from any members. Having said all of that, I do think what these latest machinations tell us is that Jim Jordan is more unlikely than we initially thought... sure, there will be some grinding of teeth from the hardliners who will complain that Kevin shouldn't be a player because he was rejected, but if my math is correct, a unified bloc of 60-80 votes, if they stay unified, is still larger than the 8 GOP members who ultimately voted to oust McCarthy.... that can't just be waved away. And the types of members who are behind McCarthy (motivated I'm sure out of anger for what happened to McCarthy by those 8 members) aren't going to be the most reachable for someone like Jim Jordan. Ultimately, this thing is gonna take a while to sort out... Edited October 10, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: For something like the bolded to take place (ie. reaching across the aisle), it's basically going to require political hari-kuri to happen... I think that's a big reason why McCarthy wouldn't negotiate for Dem votes last time either, he knew that would be the end of his career beyond the 118th Congress. And really, at least at this point, I don't see the spine to do it from any members. Having said all of that, I do think what these latest machinations tell us is that Jim Jordan is more unlikely than we initially thought... sure, there will be some grinding of teeth from the hardliners who will complain that Kevin shouldn't be a player because he was rejected, but if my math is correct, a unified bloc of 60-80 votes, if they stay unified, is still larger than the 8 GOP members who ultimately voted to oust McCarthy.... that can't just be waved away. Ultimately, this thing is gonna take a while to sort out... A guy at AEI wrote a piece this week - can't remember which paper I saw it in, argued the only way out for the GOP (and country if the 2 party system is to continue) is institute ranked choice voting in all primaries as a means to neuter the power of the fringe in the primaries. Could work. The only other thing would be to rebuild party membership back to 40/40 and 20 independents so more normal people would vote in primaries, but thats a lift I don't anyone knows an answer to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Superseding sentence for Santos... Looks like he was stealing donors' credit cards and charging to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Edman85 said: Superseding sentence for Santos... Looks like he was stealing donors' credit cards and charging to them. And yet he remains in office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Nancy Mace seems like she probably engages in some weird things on the side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 15 hours ago, Edman85 said: Superseding sentence for Santos... Looks like he was stealing donors' credit cards and charging to them. Which is probably the least surprising thing I could have learned about him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 12 hours ago, romad1 said: Nancy Mace seems like she probably engages in some weird things on the side. I can pretty much guess that Matt Gaetz is not one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) It really seems like we could actually get a speaker jim jordan... dude has never authored a single piece of legislation that has become law. Lol Republicans or RepubLOLicans Edited October 11, 2023 by pfife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerbomb13 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Scalise it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Tigerbomb13 said: Scalise it is 113-99.... I'm gonna guess that it takes more than one vote to get a Speaker again this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 I don't see how Gym would ever get any of the Republicans in districts that Biden won to vote for him. I can't imagine any rep in a competitive district would want to anchor their future to Gym. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 And the hard-core right isn't going to voter for Scalise on the floor vote; they've already stated as such... I still don't see how we get a new Speaker until Republicans quit playing partisan hackery and start talking to the Dems... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 PS: Can we find a reason to expel Tuberville out of the Senate? Asking for a friend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: And the hard-core right isn't going to voter for Scalise on the floor vote; they've already stated as such... I still don't see how we get a new Speaker until Republicans quit playing partisan hackery and start talking to the Dems... Any Republican caught talking to the Dems is gonna get kicked right in the nads. And that might not even be metaphorical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I don't see how Gym would ever get any of the Republicans in districts that Biden won to vote for him. I can't imagine any rep in a competitive district would want to anchor their future to Gym. Also, I think people really underestimate how angry some of these Republicans in Biden districts, or even some of the non-MAGA types, are with the extreme wing of the party after the McCarthy debacle. And how unlikely it ever was they would bend to whatever Gaetz and his crew wanted. That's really why I'm not surprised with this result.... even beyond the Biden District ones, there are a lot of the lower profile, "go along to get along" GOP types (ie. my new rep, Darin LaHood, for instance) who were always going to be out of reach for Jordan. Edited October 11, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Any Republican caught talking to the Dems is gonna get kicked right in the nads. And that might not even be metaphorical. 59 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Also, I think people really underestimate how angry some of these Republicans in Biden districts, or even some of the non-MAGA types, are with the extreme wing of the party after the McCarthy debacle. And how unlikely it ever was they would bend to whatever Gaetz and his crew wanted. ... who were always going to be out of reach for Jordan. Those are the reasons that I still hope the moderate wing goes to the Dems to try and bargain. If they can convince the remainders of the "Establishment" wing to bypass the "Fascist" wing... maybe there is still hope. Even if there is a bit of nad-kicking involved... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 45 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Those are the reasons that I still hope the moderate wing goes to the Dems to try and bargain. If they can convince the remainders of the "Establishment" wing to bypass the "Fascist" wing... maybe there is still hope. Even if there is a bit of nad-kicking involved... Bargain for whom, though? Whom do you think the Democrats and this moderate wing can agree on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 (edited) Nancy Mace... always the star of whatever show is going on her head at any given moment Edited October 11, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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