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2021-22 Tigers Hot Stove League


RatkoVarda

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1 minute ago, sabretooth said:

I don't like DeJong but to dismiss him as a "bad player" seems like a stretch.  He provided 11 WAR in three seasons age 23-25, that is really, really good.  After a COVID season at age 26, he had a down year in 2021. 

I don't want to see them settle for DeJong over one of the top SS, I'd be pissed if it was DeJong at SS and no other significant acquisitions, but I'd take DeJong over Ryan Kreidler at this point, easily.

That's just revisionist BS. He was bad in 2020, which I admit was a weird year, then got worse last year. That's now two years of data. He had a good rookie year when he sported an OPS above .800 and then every other years its headed the wrong direction. That leads me to believe the rookie year was the outlier. Those players don't usually figure it out after five years. They are what they are. 

You probably don't want Kreidler starting then next year, and some of what i said was hyperbole. But, I'd rather run with Nico Goodrum/Ryan Kriedler there than to be locked into 2/15 of DeJong when most likely by the end of that second year he will be a replacement level player. Give me the one with at least some upside. 

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Just now, SoCalTiger said:

It absolutely could be and I hope it turns out to be. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/tigers/2021/11/tigers-gm-on-shortstop-pursuit-one-big-splash-does-not-win-you-the-offseason.html%3foutputType=amp

From six days ago:

"But Avila said he doesn’t look at Dec. 1 as a deadline or feel any added pressure to get something done before that date.

“If you do things hastily, sometimes they don’t turn out the best way,” he said. “I think we’re doing it as business as usual. We’re talking to agents, we’re talking to other clubs. We’ll continue to work until they tell me differently.

“I don’t think the quote-unquote looming deadline is going to establish the market. I think the market establishes itself like it does every year. And it develops as time goes along. You see some guys signing a little bit earlier, and there’s going to be some guys that are going to wait a little bit longer. Every year is different.”

Missed it at the time, but it explains a lot

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22 minutes ago, KL2 said:

That's just revisionist BS. He was bad in 2020, which I admit was a weird year, then got worse last year. That's now two years of data.

I already said he had a bad year hitting in 2021.  We agree that 2020 is difficult to gauge.  Not sure why that is such a point of contention.

The entire story with DeJong's slide from decent hitter and good fielder = 3 WAR a season to poor hitter and good fielder = 1 WAR (or so) is simply that teams have increased the use of the Shift against him and it has dropped his pull-hitting average. 

All of his other peripherals have stayed almost the same.  Either he figures out how to hit against the shift, or he's not going to be a decent hitter again.

Anyway, 'nuff said about DeJong, I don't even like DeJong, nor do I want him.  I think if a good team were willing to give him a starting job that means that they are confident that they know how to get him back into decent hitting shape...that would be good enough with his defense to produce 2 or 3 WAR per year, and that's worth 2/15.

In any case, I don't want to Leave it to Kreidler.

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29 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

“If you do things hastily, sometimes they don’t turn out the best way,” he said. “I think we’re doing it as business as usual. We’re talking to agents, we’re talking to other clubs. We’ll continue to work until they tell me differently.

Bottom line though, even if in hindsight all these deals turn out to be terrible for the teams that made them, they are on the books and make it all that much less likely to land one of the others without going to a similar level. Tx really screwed the works here by taking two guys because it leaves the Yankees still out there to bid against, otherwise there was at least a chance someone wasn't going to find any more bidders at the 300M level.

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45 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'm not even saying get DeJong! They can look on the trade market for someone else too lol.

My only point is that this is their biggest position of need coming into this offseason, and handing the keys over to an promising, but unproven prospect (who isn't a Top 10 prospect like Tork/Greene) when the stated goal is to get better and compete is gonna seem like a failure to me.

So yeah, I'd like to see them go outside the org if it comes to that. They did it with Barnhart, they should do it in this hypothetical as well

Yes, I agree completely. 

I also don't agree with others who have preached trust for the organization's brass through 5 years of planned failure, then are verklempt about whether they might decide to waste 2/15 on a guy vs. a prospect who might provide a stop-gap 700 OPS for $500k.  Whoop de doo.

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3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Bottom line though, even if in hindsight all these deals turn out to be terrible for the teams that made them, they are on the books and make it all that much less likely to land one of the others without going to a similar level. Tx really screwed the works here by taking two guys because it leaves the Yankees still out there to bid against, otherwise there was at least a chance someone wasn't going to find any more bidders at the 300M level.

The Yankees definitely have the ability to spend that kinda money... but they have to want to spend the money as well. 

That doesn't seem clear at the moment, though obviously that can change in time

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26 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The Yankees definitely have the ability to spend that kinda money... but they have to want to spend the money as well. 

That doesn't seem clear at the moment, though obviously that can change in time

true. As it stands right now the teams around them don't appear to be putting much pressure on them. Toronto and Boston have lost pitching, The Rays have signed Kluber - meh.

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3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

it's not even the money to me, it's the contract terms these teams are giving away. I don't care if they pay a SS $50M/yr as long as he is on the field producing. It's the fact the even if they can afford it, teams remain very reluctant to just cut guys making >30M/yr even when they reach mere replacement level. So they clog up the lineup. That's the killer. Well maybe you hope he has a good year - after all he did two years ago for the half season before the nagging injury, or There's a lot PR value in his chase for 'X' (like maybe 3K hits?), or Man we are going to look dumb if we cut him and the knee/back/ankle improves and he puts up 5WAR for some other team on our money.

There is always a reason to hope against hope and give the guy one more year.

Iin the end, the opportunity cost is not in the dollars, it's in the roster spots.

If you pay 20 million dollars for a racehorse to put to stud and the horse dies do you know what you have-- a dead horse. It my way of saying I agree with the above quote.

And as for our SS need, it is real and it isn't going away. I still prefer to see it settled now.When July rolls around though, there will be someone out there that will be cutting payroll and may be unloading a very good SS, or maybe not. Maybe the risk isn't as great as it seems to miss out on the SS sweepstakes and wait. As far as future performance, it would not be surprising to see 1 to 3 of these SS deals tuen out to be a total bust.

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