gehringer_2 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 44 minutes ago, pfife said: I won't be putting any money on it either way but I think you're right, there's more down to go in housing market. Mortgages and that 10yr bill tend to track and right now the yield curve is still inverted. If the Fed does not begin to reduce short term rates soon, long term rates will still be seeing upward pressure as the yield curve begins to normalize post inflation - so mortgages would follow upward as well, and that will pressure housing. If the Fed relents, then maybe not. The thing with the Fed is that talking tough in public to set psychology is almost as important to their success as their market moves, so even if any of they were thinking rates could come down soon, telegraphing that it is the last thing they will want to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Irony is officially dead: Microsoft CEO Nardella complaining about Google monopoly power....... https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/02/technology/microsoft-ceo-testifies-google-search.html 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 It’s official, the SS COLA is 3.2% for ‘24. You can go ahead and book that cruise you’ve been putting off for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Morningstar is projecting that the Fed will begin cutting at its March confab, fwiw. They do have a pretty good batting average on the economic projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, 1776 said: It’s official, the SS COLA is 3.2% for ‘24. You can go ahead and book that cruise you’ve been putting off for awhile. Cruise prices are going to be more that 3% more expensive next year. Still cheaper than Mickey Land. Still not enough to justify the RV and adjacent costs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Who wants to project the top of the 10 year benchmark climb? It topped 5% earlier this morning. I’ve seen commentary suggesting 8% is possible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 No... economic headwinds are going to soon have the Fed either pausing, or dropping rates a little bit. Hence: The 10 year benchmark will stop rising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 hour ago, 1776 said: Who wants to project the top of the 10 year benchmark climb? It topped 5% earlier this morning. I’ve seen commentary suggesting 8% is possible? There is always going to be some hyperbolic predictons. The financial analysts are some of the most hyperbolic people on the internet. There is a lot dishonesty too as big investors love to see people panic. Most of the commentary seems to suggest that the rates won't go much higher and will start dropping next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 I may have commented earlier on Morningstar’s projection for future Fed actions, which is the Fed will cut in March 2024. M* has a pretty good track record on economic projections. We’ll see if they call this one correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, 1776 said: I may have commented earlier on Morningstar’s projection for future Fed actions, which is the Fed will cut in March 2024. M* has a pretty good track record on economic projections. We’ll see if they call this one correctly. I will be hovering around long term CDs at that point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) 28 minutes ago, chasfh said: I will be hovering around long term CDs at that point For the money I need to access within the next year or two, I keep doing one-month CDs (which have better rates than longer term CDs). I've already started going longer-term on some of the money I don't need in the next year or two. Edited October 23, 2023 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 39 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: For the money I need to access within the next year or two, I keep doing one-month CDs (which have better rates than longer term CDs). I've already started going longer-term on some of the money I don't need in the next year or two. I've been cycling through nine-month CDs since those have been the best combination of high rate and short term flexibility. As they have been maturing and rates have stayed elevated, I've been renewing. Once they start maturing with rates starting to drop, I may start rolling over into longer term CDs at that point to lock in higher rates. I've already gotten burned (or maybe more like singed) on a 5-year CD I got in at 4% earlier in the year. Fortunately my entire retirement doesn't depend on that, but that's when I started cycling through nine-monthers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 hours ago, chasfh said: I've been cycling through nine-month CDs since those have been the best combination of high rate and short term flexibility. As they have been maturing and rates have stayed elevated, I've been renewing. Once they start maturing with rates starting to drop, I may start rolling over into longer term CDs at that point to lock in higher rates. I've already gotten burned (or maybe more like singed) on a 5-year CD I got in at 4% earlier in the year. Fortunately my entire retirement doesn't depend on that, but that's when I started cycling through nine-monthers. I went in too early at 4.3%, but I suspect 4.3% will look pretty good in a few years, so I'm not upset about it. I am happy that I don't have such a high percentage in stocks now. It's good for peace of mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Sam Bankman FRIED 🔥 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 (edited) Have there been any buyers of long bonds here recently? Corporates are above 6-7%. I debated putting some $ into a VG index fund of long dated funds. Edited November 3, 2023 by 1776 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 2 hours ago, 1776 said: Have there been any buyers of long bonds here recently? Corporates are above 6-7%. I debated putting some $ into a VG index fund of long dated funds. I'm just about to. I was 100% in equities (index funds) until last week, and sold it all because Govt of Canada 10 year is above 4% for the first time In 15 years. So I am buying some of that, some Province of Ontario, and some corporates at around 6% although the corporates that I have access to are callable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 21 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: I'm just about to. I was 100% in equities (index funds) until last week, and sold it all because Govt of Canada 10 year is above 4% for the first time In 15 years. So I am buying some of that, some Province of Ontario, and some corporates at around 6% although the corporates that I have access to are callable. I would think anything above maybe 4% would be callable so yeah, get it while it’s hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 fwiw… Morningstar is projecting six rate cuts next year. I would not have imagined that many cuts. There appears to be a Santa Claus rally if it can hold. Santa has a new elf, his name is Jerome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 32 minutes ago, 1776 said: fwiw… Morningstar is projecting six rate cuts next year. I would not have imagined that many cuts. There appears to be a Santa Claus rally if it can hold. Santa has a new elf, his name is Jerome. I hope so the loan industry is stagnent. I just saw a buddy realtor post that IR's are down to 6% LOL. I locked mine in at 2.35% two years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 1 hour ago, 1776 said: fwiw… Morningstar is projecting six rate cuts next year. I would not have imagined that many cuts. There appears to be a Santa Claus rally if it can hold. Santa has a new elf, his name is Jerome. The Fed signalled three. If they get to 6 that probably means a recession has started so I'd as soon not see that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 2 hours ago, 1776 said: fwiw… Morningstar is projecting six rate cuts next year. I would not have imagined that many cuts. There appears to be a Santa Claus rally if it can hold. Santa has a new elf, his name is Jerome. crazy I was seeing a lot of talk about 3 cuts next year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 https://www.morningstar.com/economy/we-predict-6-interest-rate-cuts-2024 Their take is that leaving rates higher for longer May contribute to a recession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Mr. Market had a bad reaction to the inflation data this morning. Higher for longer. Keep repeating it… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) People have developed a false sense of normal since the 2009 crash. Fed rates may well not go below 3% again and the difference between 5% and 3% in terms of what investments get funded is not that great. We had an anomaly in the ~15 years after the crash. The housing crash let the air out of the balloon and demographic factors led to a long demand drop (the boomer reached the age where they stopped buying much) but as those effects fade I think we are not likely to see the rates of the 2010's come back so my take would be that we are already closer to the new (old) 'normal' than you'd think listening to financial reporting. Edited February 14 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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