Thoughts about rebuilding

[Wockenfussy]

In the sort of rebuild the Tigers are in, it seems to me that there are two things which haven't been discussed significantly, most especially one of them. It seems obvious Scott Harris will aim to get good young players in deadline deals for E-Rod, Lorenzen, any or all of the Tigers' sought after relievers, plus possibly Baez though that seems not likely. None of those players are likely to bring an earth-shattering return which would radically increase the speed and efficacy of the rebuild.

The two things it strikes me as needing to happen are: 1) a willingness for Chris Illitch to open his checkbook this offseason and aim to sign some serious, more than solid, even star players through free-agency. 2) Do not unilaterally take young players like Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith, Alex Faedo once he's healthy or really any of their other starting pitchers (again, if healthy) off of the trading block. Those are the players whom the Tigers most want to keep, yes, but those same players aren't likely to enable the club to succeed long-term, even in the AL Central. However, the return they could yield might be massive in some cases, especially Greene, and I wonder if that return, coupled with free-agency acquisitions might yield a much better, more sustainable result, faster. Surely Harris, Hinch and Illitch know that Detroit fans aren't going to support another 10 year rebuild. Or maybe Illitch takes the fan community for granted. That's within the realm of possibility too. Thoughts?

[gehringer_2]

46 minutes ago, Wockenfussy said:

2) Do not unilaterally take young players like Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith, Alex Faedo once he's healthy or really any of their other starting pitchers (again, if healthy) off of the trading block. Those are the players whom the Tigers most want to keep, yes, but those same players aren't likely to enable the club to succeed long-term, even in the AL Central. However, the return they could yield might be massive in some cases, especially Greene, and I wonder if that return, coupled with free-agency acquisitions might yield a much better, more sustainable result, faster. Surely Harris, Hinch and Illitch know that Detroit fans aren't going to support another 10 year rebuild. Or maybe Illitch takes the fan community for granted. That's within the realm of possibility too. Thoughts?

I think the idea that you can ever trade your way to being a better team is a little mythical. No-one is going to give you back better than you give up on a regular enough basis to lead to any great overall team improvement. When trading does add to a team's value (value as measured as win potential) is when a team has more resources than it needs in one area that it can trade to improve resource in another - IOW blocked players. You get better because you have talent in your org but you can't use it - trade it for talent you can use.  All of this depends on having the talent in your system to begin with. Where do the Tigers? They have nothing to trade that they don't already need desperately (ie.  a player like Greene). You can't gain ground that way. You can make some headway by giving up young players for older ones, but that is the Dombrowski dead end. Been there, done that, got the "I've Now Got an Empty System AND a REALLY Terrible Rebuild Ahead of Me" tee-shirt.

Now MAYBE - if all the pitching depth comes back healthy, then the Tigers will have some excess value they can't utililize to trade for value they can, but with starting pitching, even that is not easy to do because you can't play a starting pitcher part time to showcase him. A guy like Mize will have to come back and be in the rotation to build up any trade value, but that means some guy like Wentz who is also part of that depth (just speaking hypothetically) that might be building trade value in the majors has been sent to the minors where he can't build trade value as effectively.

So before you can trade you have to either spend (you are dead on correct there)  to buy more talent, or draft/develop  enough talent to have a tradeabe excess. Then you can trade to balance a team for better overall performance. I don't see how anyone can build a team by trading good players until they have the depth to fill behind them so those trades are "adds" instead of just "replaces"

Edited June 9, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson are players who are not likely to enable the club to succeed long-term? I don’t know who you have in mind instead, but that’s a high bar.

[Tenacious D]

What’s troubling is that guys who had good seasons last year in the minors have regressed, especially the pitchers.  I was hopeful that player development would improve.  Hard to see that so far.  Flores, Madden, Hurter, Crouch, Graham and Santana are a few examples. And the injuries keep piling up.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson are players who are not likely to enable the club to succeed long-term? I don’t know who you have in mind instead, but that’s a high bar.

Torkelson is not a very high bar at this point.  He has not shown any sustained success in the majors at all.  I know he hits the ball hard, but at some point those have to result in actual hits and extra base hits for it to be useful.  Otherwise, the conclusion may be that they know where to play him.  

[bobrob2004]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Torkelson is not a very high bar at this point.  He has not shown any sustained success in the majors at all.  I know he hits the ball hard, but at some point those have to result in actual hits and extra base hits for it to be useful.  Otherwise, the conclusion may be that they know where to play him.  

Torkelson is also rated as the worst first baseman in baseball by several defensive stats. 

[Dave Christian]

If Torkelson is lacking in self-confidence, perhaps they should send him to Lakeland to rebuild his confidence.

If he can't hit those young pitchers down there, then he's probably never going to be the hitter we expected!

[Tigermojo]

This team has been so badly mismanaged. Years of control over young players lost because they were trying and failing to win half their games.

If we had a real team so all the guys 24 and under could develop properly in the minors, we would have the best minor league system in baseball. Instead we have kids who aren't ready, failing on the Major League team.

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, Dave Christian said:

If Torkelson is lacking in self-confidence, perhaps they should send him to Lakeland to rebuild his confidence.

If he can't hit those young pitchers down there, then he's probably never going to be the hitter we expected!

Funny how his play has gone downhill since Riley went down. Either Riley is a better coach for Tork than anyone the TIgers have hired, or maybe with Riley out he's pressing - that latter is not unlikely I suppose.

Edited June 9, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Torkelson is not a very high bar at this point.  He has not shown any sustained success in the majors at all.  I know he hits the ball hard, but at some point those have to result in actual hits and extra base hits for it to be useful.  Otherwise, the conclusion may be that they know where to play him.  

A year and two months in.

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Torkelson is also rated as the worst first baseman in baseball by several defensive stats. 

Yeah that’s the part I’m concerned about. He’s going to have to come off the field way before he hits 30, or else accept the couple of losses he’ll get you there over a whole season. 

[Tiger337]

13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

A year and two months in.

I certainly haven't given up on him, but you would think he'd at least go on a lengthy hot streak at some point.  I'd rather he have good hard hit% and high barrels than low ones, because it gives me hope.  The statcast numbers are nice indicators, but not guarantees of future results.    

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I certainly haven't given up on him, but you would think he'd at least go on a lengthy hot streak at some point.  I'd rather he have good hard hit% and high barrels than low ones, because it gives me hope.  The statcast numbers are nice indicators, but not guarantees of future results.    

He missed an entire year of minor-league seasoning and was rushed up by a GM desperate to look right. He had fewer than 700 plate trips in the minors and still less than 1,400 as a professional overall. His growing pains are all coming at the major league level. I’ll give him until about 2,500 plate trips before I conclude he’s just not gonna make it.  That’s basically end of next year, his third year. I’ll grouse about him until then, but I won’t give up on him completely until then. 

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

He missed an entire year of minor-league seasoning and was rushed up by a GM desperate to look right. He had fewer than 700 plate trips in the minors and still less than 1,400 as a professional overall. His growing pains are all coming at the major league level. I’ll give him until about 2,500 plate trips before I conclude he’s just not gonna make it.  That’s basically end of next year, his third year. I’ll grouse about him until then, but I won’t give up on him completely until then. 

and TBF, at his age he can still improve some at 1st as well. But for all this stuff, sooner would be a lot more fun than later!

Edited June 10, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

and TBF, at his age he can still improve some at 1st as well. But for this stuff, sooner would be a lot more fun than later!

I guess he could, but I’m not holding my breath on that one.

[Tiger337]

Hey, I am not giving up on Torkelson.  I like him.  I am just not particularly encouraged by his results to date.  

[kdog]

They have had horrible luck along with horrible management and ownership. Perhaps the luck will turn a bit with injuries and development. Beyond that, I have no idea how they turn this around.

[KL2]

1 hour ago, kdog said:

They have had horrible luck along with horrible management and ownership. Perhaps the luck will turn a bit with injuries and development. Beyond that, I have no idea how they turn this around.

You get a bit of luck with players coming out of their shell or magically becoming useful. 

I mean look at 2005 a lot of the same feelings but then kablamo 2006. I'm not saying they'll do it next year but some of the woe and this is gonna last for another decade or whatever is overblow.

[kdog]

They also signed the two big free agents plus Polanco. It was a big confluence of things all happening at once. It does prove that you need to explore all avenues to improve your team. Waiting on every single prospect to arrive at the same time is not how it works(development curves, injuries, luck).

[RandyMarsh]

You obviously never know but to me they would need alot of things to go right to be a legit team next year. You'd need Greene to play like he did in May all year, Tork to atleast be an .800 OPS type guy, Javy to come closer to his pre Det levels, Carpenter to be a plus bat and then a breakout from say a Malloy or Keith. If that were to happen you would then have 5-6 legit bats in the lineup which could be enough to score enough runs to win assuming Fetter can continue to work some magic with the pitching staff. 

[Tenacious D]

Probably unreasonable expectations for Tork, who was hyped for a long time before he was drafted 1-1.  He still shows flashes of promise, and given where we are, he’ll get a long leash.  Not blocking anyone and we won’t be drafting his replacement, at least not in the first round.  You run with him and Greene, and try to solve almost every other spot.

[mtutiger]

9 hours ago, kdog said:

They also signed the two big free agents plus Polanco. 

Those big free agents and Polanco were all on the team when they sucked in 2005.

[Tiger337]

10 hours ago, KL2 said:

You get a bit of luck with players coming out of their shell or magically becoming useful. 

I mean look at 2005 a lot of the same feelings but then kablamo 2006. I'm not saying they'll do it next year but some of the woe and this is gonna last for another decade or whatever is overblow.

You said for six years that they only way to win in today's game was to tear everything down and re-build and where did that get them? Now, you want fans to be patient and hope for luck and magic? 

[Dtrain72]

19 hours ago, Wockenfussy said:

Illitch know that Detroit fans aren't going to support another 10 year rebuild. Or maybe Illitch takes the fan community for granted. That's within the realm of possibility too. Thoughts?

The same owner who last year said "tHe REbuiLd iS OvuUuuR!!!!"?  Yeahhh, I dont expect much situational awareness or cognitive affirmation of the reality of this team's situation from the owner who said that just last year...

[kdog]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Those big free agents and Polanco were all on the team when they sucked in 2005.

And then a bunch of guys who were already on the roster had great seasons in 2006...Inge, Granderson, Monroe, etc.

Bonderman was healthy and good; Verlander and Zumaya because stars for one year; Kenny Rogers was signed to a free agent deal.

If you look at it, a whole bunch of guys became decent players, a few stars emerged, and their pitching was great. But they didn't have 6 guys with an ops below .600. Maybe it's more important that you raise the floor of the team.