Thoughts about rebuilding

[1984Echoes]

37 minutes ago, buddha said:

... there's no basis for your opinion other than the tigers are ...

This is not correct.

Try again.

But let me be more specific: I was NOT the only one who said Riley Greene would be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Torkelson would be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Skubal would be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Mize would be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Manning would be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Colt Keith could be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Roberto Campos could be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Dingler could be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Madden could be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Parker Meadows could be a major leaguer... I was NOT the only one who said Brieske could be a major leaguer... etc., etc., etc...

SCOUTS have said the same thing.

If you are saying that I am the ONLY one claiming these guys will be major leaguers and the ONLY reason I think these guys will be major leaguers is because I'm a Tigers fan than I am calling straight-up BULL****.

Because it is.

It is NOT blind faith.

Which does NOT mean that every single one of these guys (and a longer list) will make it. Obviously there will be failures.

Edited June 11, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[1984Echoes]

35 minutes ago, buddha said:

...  and so far, i am right and you are wrong.

That is...

TODAY.

That is NOT...

Tomorrow.

And it's WAAAAY too early to be making final judgement calls on "Avila's kids".

And you know that, don't you?

[Hongbit]

They are really just 3 players away from being one of the top teams in the AL.  

Those players are Ohtani, Judge, and Cole  

 

[buddha]

42 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

That is...

TODAY.

That is NOT...

Tomorrow.

And it's WAAAAY too early to be making final judgement calls on "Avila's kids".

And you know that, don't you?

tomorrow i will also be right.

[mtutiger]

31 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

They are really just 3 players away from being one of the top teams in the AL.  

Those players are Ohtani, Judge, and Cole  

 

I know you are joking, but still, Ohtani currently has Trout on the same team and has missed the playoffs with regularity since joining MLB.

[Hongbit]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I know you are joking, but still, Ohtani currently has Trout on the same team and has missed the playoffs with regularity since joining MLB.

Trout has also been injured with regularity since Ohtani joined the Angels.   

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Trout has also been injured with regularity since Ohtani joined the Angels.   

He was on the field for 120 games last year and it didn't work out. And if I were a betting man, it probably won't work out this year either.

Ohtani is a generational talent, but this isn't the NBA... having a couple of stars without a decent enough supporting cast doesn't really work.

Edited June 11, 2023 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Trout has also been injured with regularity since Ohtani joined the Angels.   

Funny thing, when Trout came up he had kind of a 'baby fat' look that I read as a risk he night run to fat as he got older. That part turned out to a completely unjustified concern, but he's ended up missing big chunks of his career prime seasons anyway.

[Hongbit]

16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

He was on the field for 120 games last year and it didn't work out. And if I were a betting man, it probably won't work out this year either.

Ohtani is a generational talent, but this isn't the NBA... having a couple of stars without a decent enough supporting cast doesn't really work.

See there was a reason that I said 3 players and not 2.  If the Angels had either Aaron Judge or Garrett Cole there’s a good chance they are defending World Series champs and in the driver seat for another this year.  

[SoCalTiger]

20 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

See there was a reason that I said 3 players and not 2.  If the Angels had either Aaron Judge or Garrett Cole there’s a good chance they are defending World Series champs and in the driver seat for another this year.  

Well they have Rendon also. As stated by others baseball needs depth and some good fortune and health plus health and injury free. See Tigers. Detroit. We are better just thin. 

[Hongbit]

57 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Well they have Rendon also. As stated by others baseball needs depth and some good fortune and health plus health and injury free. See Tigers. Detroit. We are better just thin. 

Rendon is miles away from a Judge or Cole that are at the top of the game right now.   

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, Toddwert said:

How’s that working out for them? Still the same weak hitting team they were last year 

The team was never going to do a 180 and compete for a ring in Year One.

[Toddwert]

35 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The team was never going to do a 180 and compete for a ring in Year One.

True… I just dont see this turning around any time… we dont have high end prospects and they seem reluctant to try to bring in free agents so  I dont see where they get better

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Toddwert said:

True… I just dont see this turning around any time… we dont have high end prospects and they seem reluctant to try to bring in free agents so  I dont see where they get better

Yeah, we’re in very, very bad shape now. The wounds are very deep and they are also very wide. The patient is practically terminal and the surgeon is going to be on their feet trying to save them for a very, very long time.

The secret, in my view, is in understanding that the turnaround is not going to happen this year, and most probably not next year, and perhaps not the year after. If they’re still flopping around with no tunnel light in sight by Year Four, though, I think that’ll be the time I’m going to start inquiring into getting my money back.

[HeyAbbott]

20 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Nobody has 26 stars on their team. A few more quality players could make a big difference on the Tigers roster. 

an 81 win team requires 26 guys averaging 1.1 WAR each. A realistic look reveals we are perhaps a dozen players away, an absolute minimum of 6. I am not asking for Mike Trout clones. I am asking for a collection of players statistically possible to reach 81 wins 

[kdog]

Chris Ilitch has lost the room:

 

[oblong]

You don't rebuild through the draft.

I went through the first 3 rounds of every draft since 2016.  Here's what I found for "good" players.

Will Smith, Dodgers.  32nd pick in 2016 1st round

Pete Alonso, Mets 64th pick in 2016 2nd round

Bo Bichette,Blue Jays 66th pic in 2016 2nd round

Bryan Reynolds, Giants 59th pick in 2016 2nd round

Zach Gallen, Cardinals 106th pick in 2016 3rd round

Sean Murphy, A's, 83rd pick in 2016 3rd round

Shane Mclanahan, Rays 31st pick in 2017 1st round

It's development.  x100.  Some orgs can develop much better than others.  You can't tell me the teams are sitting on gold players after the first 2 rounds just hoping they slip through.

 

[Shinzaki]

21 hours ago, Dtrain72 said:

I was told the rebuild was over.

I was told the check is in the mail

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, oblong said:

You don't rebuild through the draft.

I went through the first 3 rounds of every draft since 2016.  Here's what I found for "good" players.

Will Smith, Dodgers.  32nd pick in 2016 1st round

Pete Alonso, Mets 64th pick in 2016 2nd round

Bo Bichette,Blue Jays 66th pic in 2016 2nd round

Bryan Reynolds, Giants 59th pick in 2016 2nd round

Zach Gallen, Cardinals 106th pick in 2016 3rd round

Sean Murphy, A's, 83rd pick in 2016 3rd round

Shane Mclanahan, Rays 31st pick in 2017 1st round

It's development.  x100.  Some orgs can develop much better than others.  You can't tell me the teams are sitting on gold players after the first 2 rounds just hoping they slip through.

 

People have posted the chart for average career WAR vs draft position. The corelation is real enough near the top, but still pretty noisy even there.  The baseball draft is the most problematic for the major sports because of the high level of noise in the player evaluation signals you get from intrntnl, prep and college baseball, If you look at the difference in the quality of play differential between the top of college football and the NFL, or the top level of NCAA or Euro basketball and the NBA, the comparative difference in baseball is a chasm, so draft uncertainty follows.

I would not disagree at all with the premise that some teams coach well and some badly and it certainly seems inarguable that for non-pitchers at least, the Tigers system has done poorly. And in fact the Tigers success with lower draft round pitchers tends to prove the point. But their pitching development and hitting development might as well be from different planets. Plus another problem with the Tigers  has just been bad internal evaluation. Adames, Martinez, Castillanos, Paredes, Suare --- In too many cases we have failed to properly value what we did have and sold too low - gutting our system depth over many years.

 

[oblong]

Some orgs are so good at it that i have to think there's a skill there that's not being used by others.  What kind of profile in a player do you value?  That's the kind of thing I hope Harris and his team is bringing here.  Whether he can we just don't know and I scoff at presumed pundits who think the book on him is already written.

Unfortunately it will take time to determine.  The hope was guys like Greene and Tork and the pitchers would help keep things afloat until we know.

 

[Tiger337]

15 minutes ago, oblong said:

Some orgs are so good at it that i have to think there's a skill there that's not being used by others.  What kind of profile in a player do you value?  That's the kind of thing I hope Harris and his team is bringing here.  Whether he can we just don't know and I scoff at presumed pundits who think the book on him is already written.

Unfortunately it will take time to determine.  The hope was guys like Greene and Tork and the pitchers would help keep things afloat until we know.

 

That is my hope as well, but I have no idea if that's the case.  It seems that some people love or hate him already, but I don't think we have nearly enough info.  I remember when Randy Smith was supposed to be some whiz kid.  

[Shinzaki]

I recall thinking Randy was a wunderkind....right up until his 17th trade with the Astros

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

You don't rebuild through the draft.

I went through the first 3 rounds of every draft since 2016.  Here's what I found for "good" players.

{list of player}

It's development.  x100.  Some orgs can develop much better than others.  You can't tell me the teams are sitting on gold players after the first 2 rounds just hoping they slip through.

I remember posting on the old board maybe a decade or so ago this nascent idea I had that just about any player in the major leaguers could be an All-Star, if they lucked into being in the right organization. I had not formulated much thinking around player development or even the Tigers' lagging behind on that, but I knew just from reading around that enough players were succeeding with some teams after failing with others that there had to be something in that.

[gehringer_2]

51 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I remember posting on the old board maybe a decade or so ago this nascent idea I had that just about any player in the major leaguers could be an All-Star,

LOL - to *some* degree. There are certain bottom lines. In the majors every hitter is close to or pretty much up against the wall of the their maximum neuro-muscular-visual limit and much of the variation between players is down to pure genetic limits. If you were to get everybody to optimized approach and mechanics, you will still see a distribution in the physiological phenotypes. Or another way to put it would be that poor coaching may prevent a guy from ever reaching his max potential, but no coaching is going to get a guy past it.  

I don't know whether I actually read or heard him say this once, or if I just surmised it from his MO, but I think Dombrowski loved to take guys with big arms because that is the one absolutely hard certainty you can measure in a baseball draft pick, and I think that continued under Avila and maybe even moreso since now you can measure all his spin and break so you can get more 'comfortable' with a decision about a pitcher because you have all this data. By comparison projecting what a hitter can do against levels of pitching he has never faced and you don't have machines to  easily measure is scary and uncertain. Of course the thing is a good team must find a way to do it and do it well, or you end up like the Tigers.

Edited June 12, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Jim Cowan]

3 hours ago, oblong said:

You don't rebuild through the draft.

I went through the first 3 rounds of every draft since 2016.  Here's what I found for "good" players.

Will Smith, Dodgers.  32nd pick in 2016 1st round

Pete Alonso, Mets 64th pick in 2016 2nd round

Bo Bichette,Blue Jays 66th pic in 2016 2nd round

Bryan Reynolds, Giants 59th pick in 2016 2nd round

Zach Gallen, Cardinals 106th pick in 2016 3rd round

Sean Murphy, A's, 83rd pick in 2016 3rd round

Shane Mclanahan, Rays 31st pick in 2017 1st round

It's development.  x100.  Some orgs can develop much better than others.  You can't tell me the teams are sitting on gold players after the first 2 rounds just hoping they slip through.

 

That's a great illustration of why no organization in baseball loses intentionally in order to improve their draft position.  The draft picks don't have anywhere near the value that they do in basketball for example where your 1-1 pick is 20% of your starting lineup.