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Week Ten: Detroit Lions (6-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)


MichiganCardinal

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35 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I mean... they held Mahomes to 226 yards and the lowest completion percent he's had all season. They struggled against Lamar, but that was team-wide, not some "oh god we are playing a good quarterback let's collapse". Baker is probably the third best QB they played and they performed well against him.

The Mahomes numbers are deceiving due to no Kelce and they dropped tons of passes. Geno had arguably his best game of the season against them. The Lions defense has played well against Ridder, Young, Love, Mayfield and Jimmy G so we really don't know if they're good or not.

Herbert struggled on the road against a much better defense in a stadium that's notoriously tough on QBs so I don't think that indicates that he'll struggle this week. I think he'll have a big day against the Lions defense in an inside stadium especially if Glenn predominantly rushes 4 but I also expect the Lions to move the ball well against the Chargers defense.

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3 hours ago, NYLion said:

The Mahomes numbers are deceiving due to no Kelce and they dropped tons of passes. Geno had arguably his best game of the season against them. The Lions defense has played well against Ridder, Young, Love, Mayfield and Jimmy G so we really don't know if they're good or not.

Herbert struggled on the road against a much better defense in a stadium that's notoriously tough on QBs so I don't think that indicates that he'll struggle this week. I think he'll have a big day against the Lions defense in an inside stadium especially if Glenn predominantly rushes 4 but I also expect the Lions to move the ball well against the Chargers defense.

The "haven't beat a tough QB" argument is always going to be a hard one to sell me on. There just aren't that many good to great QBs in the league. The Lions have played two and they beat one (I don't really care for the he-didn't-have-Kelce argument, he still had his legs).

Is Herbert in that class? Does it really matter either way? The remaining QBs the Lions will see after Herbert before the playoffs are Fields/Bagent x2, Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Josh Dobbs x2, and Dak Prescott... If you can beat mid-tier NFL QBs, you'll rack up a lot of wins... but I don't think it's right to say based on what we have seen this year, both of Herbert and the Lions defense, that Herbert will "shred" the Lions defense.

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Is Montgomery going to get the RB1 role back automatically over Gibbs now given how well Gibbs played against the Raiders? I'd hate to see Gibbs usage have a precipitous drop off this week. I do think that Montgomery should take back the mantle of being the bell cow back, but Gibbs looked like the player we drafted him to be last week against the Raiders. The Chargers have a bottom five-ten defense I believe and I would hate to see Gibbs usage regress against such a poorly coached defense.

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29 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Is Montgomery going to get the RB1 role back automatically over Gibbs now given how well Gibbs played against the Raiders? I'd hate to see Gibbs usage have a precipitous drop off this week. I do think that Montgomery should take back the mantle of being the bell cow back, but Gibbs looked like the player we drafted him to be last week against the Raiders. The Chargers have a bottom five-ten defense I believe and I would hate to see Gibbs usage regress against such a poorly coached defense.

I expect Gibbs to be misused with Monty back.  

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Ill admit Ive been clamoring for more Gibbs touches but looking at it rationally the Lions prob have used him perfectly from a workload and future performance standpoint.

They can't say they lost any games this year due to how Gibbs was used and now he is far fresher than he otherwise would be for the second half of the season. 

Don't know if the data confirms this but the narrative has always been that rbs, in particular rookie rbs break down in the second half and their performance suffers due to the punishment that they have taken throughout the year, well Gibbs hasnt had that same workload so theoretically that shouldn't be a concern for him. 

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17 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

The "haven't beat a tough QB" argument is always going to be a hard one to sell me on. There just aren't that many good to great QBs in the league. The Lions have played two and they beat one (I don't really care for the he-didn't-have-Kelce argument, he still had his legs).

Is Herbert in that class? Does it really matter either way? The remaining QBs the Lions will see after Herbert before the playoffs are Fields/Bagent x2, Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Josh Dobbs x2, and Dak Prescott... If you can beat mid-tier NFL QBs, you'll rack up a lot of wins... but I don't think it's right to say based on what we have seen this year, both of Herbert and the Lions defense, that Herbert will "shred" the Lions defense.

Even putting the Kelce injury aside, there was a ridiculous amount of dropped passes by Chiefs receivers all in key moments it seemed like so my point is that Mahomes passing numbers in that game is deceiving. For instance, if Toney makes that catch (and he was WIDE OPEN) on the final drive, the Chiefs are more than likely kicking a FG to win that game.

My general point is that the Lions defense has played well against the bottom of the barrel QBs but have gotten shredded against the better ones so I think it's likely that Herbert has a big day against them especially if they let Keenan Allen go 1 on 1.

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12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Is Montgomery going to get the RB1 role back automatically over Gibbs now given how well Gibbs played against the Raiders? I'd hate to see Gibbs usage have a precipitous drop off this week. I do think that Montgomery should take back the mantle of being the bell cow back, but Gibbs looked like the player we drafted him to be last week against the Raiders. The Chargers have a bottom five-ten defense I believe and I would hate to see Gibbs usage regress against such a poorly coached defense.

I think they work best when the other one is also on the field. They really have complimentary skills. Montgomery is going to be the "take the air out of the ball" back. If we get the ball up three with five minutes left, he is going to be the guy to deliver death by a million runs up the middle... Gibbs is more the guy you want to get in space. Runs to the outside, screens, designed routes, etc. Yet they can each do the other's skill as well (Montgomery catching passes, Gibbs going up the middle), and they can both block.

In a drive with the season on the line, in an ideal world, I think you have Montgomery, Gibbs, ASB, LaPorta, and... dare I say it... Jamo? all on the field at the same time. With those five weapons, you can really pick your poison and, if you're taking care of the ball, you're going to move it downfield. Opposing defenses can't shut down the entire field, and that's what's open to you between those weapons.

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1 minute ago, NYLion said:

Even putting the Kelce injury aside, there was a ridiculous amount of dropped passes by Chiefs receivers all in key moments it seemed like so my point is that Mahomes passing numbers in that game is deceiving. For instance, if Toney makes that catch (and he was WIDE OPEN) on the final drive, the Chiefs are more than likely kicking a FG to win that game.

My general point is that the Lions defense has played well against the bottom of the barrel QBs but have gotten shredded against the better ones so I think it's likely that Herbert has a big day against them especially if they let Keenan Allen go 1 on 1.

If Marvin Jones doesn't fumble the ball inside the 15, the Lions likely score another 3 there too, if not 7. Who knows how many additional sacks and pressures the Lions generate if Jaawan Taylor was held to the same standards as the 63 other starting offensive tackles in the league? Even if we are just looking at drops, the Chiefs had four, but the Lions had three (two by MJJ). KC's were brutal and more memorable yes, but I don't think it's right to discount a win over them just because he Mahomes was missing one of his targets or because his receivers didn't catch a few passes either.

I don't even necessarily disagree with your second point, but I don't think that's an indictment on the Lions or their defense. There are extraordinarily few really good QBs in the NFL, and those that are really good are generally on really good teams. The Lions should beat the mid-tier and worse QBs on mid-tier and worse teams, and if they do, they will succeed and make the playoffs, and likely even advance in the playoffs.

The QBs they play(ed) this year are Mahomes, Geno Smith, Desmond Ridder, Bryce Love, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Jimmy G, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love x2, Justin Fields x2, and Josh Dobbs x2. If they just beat the teams with QBs outside the top tier, and lose to all QBs in the top tier, they'd go 14-3, even if I put Herbert in that top tier... Even if I go beyond that to QBs who I would put in a good-not-great tier (Geno and Dak), that's 12-5... There are just not that many great QBs in the NFL, and especially not in the NFC. So I think to say "they struggle to beat great QBs" is just to say "they struggle to beat the best teams in the NFL", which.... sure. I'm okay with that, so long as we are beating the teams we are supposed to beat, which we are.

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1 hour ago, NYLion said:

Even putting the Kelce injury aside, there was a ridiculous amount of dropped passes by Chiefs receivers all in key moments it seemed like so my point is that Mahomes passing numbers in that game is deceiving. For instance, if Toney makes that catch (and he was WIDE OPEN) on the final drive, the Chiefs are more than likely kicking a FG to win that game.

My general point is that the Lions defense has played well against the bottom of the barrel QBs but have gotten shredded against the better ones so I think it's likely that Herbert has a big day against them especially if they let Keenan Allen go 1 on 1.

They need to bracket KA like Ravens did to St. Brown.

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19 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Most teams struggle against the elite qbs hence why they are elite so I don't think it's a slight against the Lions if they do.

Sure but then you look at the game logs and see that Geno Smith and Lamar Jackson had their best games of the season against the Lions defense. @MichiganCardinal

It's a valid concern IMO.

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46 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Sure but then you look at the game logs and see that Geno Smith and Lamar Jackson had their best games of the season against the Lions defense. @MichiganCardinal

It's a valid concern IMO.

Detroit’s three main problems this season have been discipline against mobile QBs, turnovers, and injuries. Three turnovers against Seattle and still Seattle had to go to OT to win it. One dimensional running game against Baltimore and timid play and play calling as a result. 

Detroit is still a step behind the top tier teams but could back in to the top seed in NFC then get CJGJ and Houston back for the playoffs in indoor stadiums. Then they have a chance against anybody. Also, Hurts is already dealing with a knee injury and they are going into a stretch of really tough opponents. QBs who run have a history of not making it through seasons intact. 

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12 hours ago, NYLion said:

Even putting the Kelce injury aside, there was a ridiculous amount of dropped passes by Chiefs receivers all in key moments it seemed like so my point is that Mahomes passing numbers in that game is deceiving. For instance, if Toney makes that catch (and he was WIDE OPEN) on the final drive, the Chiefs are more than likely kicking a FG to win that game.

My general point is that the Lions defense has played well against the bottom of the barrel QBs but have gotten shredded against the better ones so I think it's likely that Herbert has a big day against them especially if they let Keenan Allen go 1 on 1.

Looks like you want an asterisk on the chiefs game too.  

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12 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think they work best when the other one is also on the field. They really have complimentary skills. Montgomery is going to be the "take the air out of the ball" back. If we get the ball up three with five minutes left, he is going to be the guy to deliver death by a million runs up the middle... Gibbs is more the guy you want to get in space. Runs to the outside, screens, designed routes, etc. Yet they can each do the other's skill as well (Montgomery catching passes, Gibbs going up the middle), and they can both block.

In a drive with the season on the line, in an ideal world, I think you have Montgomery, Gibbs, ASB, LaPorta, and... dare I say it... Jamo? all on the field at the same time. With those five weapons, you can really pick your poison and, if you're taking care of the ball, you're going to move it downfield. Opposing defenses can't shut down the entire field, and that's what's open to you between those weapons.

I agree with what you put here about how each back will be used. Montgomery is definitely your go to back when you have a second half lead and you want to wear a team down and grind out the clock.

It seems likely that Gibbs just had fewer carries and less catches/touches/targets overall early on in the season because he was a rookie, getting acclimated and worked into this offense. I want Gibbs to be able to get direct carries with the football too though and not just be the bubble screen guy. I don't want Montgomery taking too much of that away. He's an Alvin Kamara-like player with skills to be a screen pass option, a receiver lined up outside, and a direct snap-to-hand off style of running back. For as flashy a player as Kamara is, he still managed 16/17/18 touches a game carrying the ball on top of the 6-8 receiving targets he'll get.

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6 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I agree with what you put here about how each back will be used. Montgomery is definitely your go to back when you have a second half lead and you want to wear a team down and grind out the clock.

It seems likely that Gibbs just had fewer carries and less catches/touches/targets overall early on in the season because he was a rookie, getting acclimated and worked into this offense. I want Gibbs to be able to get direct carries with the football too though and not just be the bubble screen guy. I don't want Montgomery taking too much of that away. He's an Alvin Kamara-like player with skills to be a screen pass option, a receiver lined up outside, and a direct snap-to-hand off style of running back. For as flashy a player as Kamara is, he still managed 16/17/18 touches a game carrying the ball on top of the 6-8 receiving targets he'll get.

I agree with all of this.

I do think Montgomery and the extra 25 pounds he has on Gibbs probably gives him an ability to better avoid injuries while being a bruising up-the-middle back. Monty's rib cartilage injury was kind of a freak thing where he landed on the ball in just the wrong way, but otherwise he's been very durable in his time in the league. 

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