Mr.TaterSalad Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) I'm not saying we will win the Cup this year if we make the playoffs, but I think we are getting closer than people think as our defense, goaltending, and scoring depth improves. Larkin is the closest player we have to a PPG+ player on this team. We likely don't have a guy whose going to be contributing at a 2 PPG+ clip, nor consistently be an 90-100+ PPS type of a player. The more I looked into the numbers, the more I'm beginning to see that's not going to be a problem based on what two other recent Stanley Cup winners had on their teams. Sure, it would be nice to have a Connor McDavid, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner type goal scorer and point producer. We don't need that though to win a Stanley Cup. Look at the Stanley Cup winner from just last year, the Vegas Golden Knights. Their top point producer in the regular season was Jack Eichel with 66 points and he was also their top goal scorer with 27 goals. In 2019 when the Blues won the Cup Ryan O'Reilly lead the team with 77 points and Vladimir Tarasenko had the most goals at 33. Neither team even had a guy that produced 80+ points or scored more than 35 goals, much less a 40 goals scorer. Both Vegas last year and St. Louis in 2019 played smart, defensively responsible, two-way hockey. Neither team turned the puck over a lot and both were in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive zone giveaways, with Vegas being in the bottom 3 last season. If you subtract our disastrously bad defense and goaltending in the month of December this season, we'd likely be in the bottom 7-10 in defensive zone giveaways too. I pulled these numbers from a poster (maximus91) on reddit and it further fits my narrative that our pathway forward is the Golden Knights and Blues models of building a Cup contending team. Both teams had only three 20+ goal scorers and only St. Louis had a singular 30 goal scorer. Both teams only had one player with PPG stats that season. Vegas had seven players with 40+ points last season, we potentially have 7-8 guys that could reach 40+ points this season (Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond, Sprong, Gostisbehere, Seider, Compher, and maybe Kane). Two D-men reached the 40 point mark on Vegas, we likely have two that will hit that mark this season in Gostisbehere and Seider. Vegas had twelve 10+ goal scorers on their Cup team last year, St. Louis had thirteen 10+ goal scorers in 2019, we are currently at the same number now as Vegas was last year. They had 3 guys (Marchessault, Eichel, Smith) go over 20 goals, St. Louis had 3 guys (Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Perron), and we are likely to have 3 this year (Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat). They had one D-men go over 50 points on Vegas in Pietrangelo, St. Louis had no D-men over 50 points, we don't have a D-man close to the 50 point mark. Vegas only gave up 229 GA, St. Louis in 2019 was at 220 GA, and this year we are currently at 181 GA and trending towards similar numbers for both teams. Vegas had 5 different goalies start for them and all but Jonathan Quick had above 915 SAV%, St. Louis had 3 goalies start with two (Allen and Binnington) above a 900 SV%, we have had 3 goalies start for us this year and 2 of 3 are above a 900 SV%. We aren't building a team in the mold of Colorado, Edmonton, or Toronto with multiple 90+ PPS or multiple 40+ GPS type of guys. We are much more in-line with recent Cup winners like Vegas and St. Louis. Both were teams who played smart two-way hockey, didn't turn the puck over, had a lot of goal scoring depth as opposed to a dominate first scoring line, were tough on the defensive end, and had multiple, quality starting goalies. A little more offensive contribution, a little more consistent defensive play and a goalie who can help carry the starting load with Alex Lyon (I'm looking at you Sebastian Cossa) and I really don't think we are as far away as people seem to think from being a Cup contender. Edited February 25 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 11 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I'm not saying we will win the Cup this year if we make the playoffs, but I think we are getting closer than people think as our defense, goaltending, and scoring depth improves. Larkin is the closest player we have to a PPG+ player on this team. We likely don't have a guy whose going to be contributing at a 2 PPG+ clip, nor consistently be an 90-100+ PPS type of a player. The more I looked into the numbers, the more I'm beginning to see that's not going to be a problem based on what two other recent Stanley Cup winners had on their teams. Sure, it would be nice to have a Connor McDavid, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner type goal scorer and point producer. We don't need that though to win a Stanley Cup. Look at the Stanley Cup winner from just last year, the Vegas Golden Knights. Their top point producer in the regular season was Jack Eichel with 66 points and he was also their top goal scorer with 27 goals. In 2019 when the Blues won the Cup Ryan O'Reilly lead the team with 77 points and Vladimir Tarasenko had the most goals at 33. Neither team even had a guy that produced 80+ points or scored more than 35 goals, much less a 40 goals scorer. Both Vegas last year and St. Louis in 2019 played smart, defensively responsible, two-way hockey. Neither team turned the puck over a lot and both were in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive zone giveaways, with Vegas being in the bottom 3 last season. If you subtract our disastrously bad defense and goaltending in the month of December this season, we'd likely be in the bottom 7-10 in defensive zone giveaways too. I pulled these numbers from a poster (maximus91) on reddit and it further fits my narrative that our pathway forward is the Golden Knights and Blues models of building a Cup contending team. Both teams had only three 20+ goal scorers and only St. Louis had a singular 30 goal scorer. Both teams only had one player with PPG stats that season. Vegas had seven players with 40+ points last season, we potentially have 7-8 guys that could reach 40+ points this season (Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond, Sprong, Gostisbehere, Seider, Compher, and maybe Kane). Two D-men reached the 40 point mark on Vegas, we likely have two that will hit that mark this season in Gostisbehere and Seider. Vegas had twelve 10+ goal scorers on their Cup team last year, St. Louis had thirteen 10+ goal scorers in 2019, we are currently at the same number now as Vegas was last year. They had 3 guys (Marchessault, Eichel, Smith) go over 20 goals, St. Louis had 3 guys (Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Perron), and we are likely to have 3 this year (Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat). They had one D-men go over 50 points on Vegas in Pietrangelo, St. Louis had no D-men over 50 points, we don't have a D-man close to the 50 point mark. Vegas only gave up 229 GA, St. Louis in 2019 was at 220 GA, and this year we are currently at 181 GA and trending towards similar numbers for both teams. Vegas had 5 different goalies start for them and all but Jonathan Quick had above 915 SAV%, St. Louis had 3 goalies start with two (Allen and Binnington) above a 900 SV%, we have had 3 goalies start for us this year and 2 of 3 are above a 900 SV%. We aren't building a team in the mold of Colorado, Edmonton, or Toronto with multiple 90+ PPS or multiple 40+ GPS type of guys. We are much more in-line with recent Cup winners like Vegas and St. Louis. Both were teams who played smart two-way hockey, didn't turn the puck over, had a lot of goal scoring depth as opposed to a dominate first scoring line, were tough on the defensive end, and had multiple, quality starting goalies. A little more offensive contribution, a little more consistent defensive play and a goalie who can help carry the starting load with Alex Lyon (I'm looking at you Sebastian Cossa) and I really don't think we are as far away as people seem to think from being a Cup contender. Great post. I like the Vegas and StL comparisons but unfortunately they are in the West and that’s a completely different animal come playoffs. It’s so much more difficult having to come out of the East. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 st louis is an outlier. and detroit doesnt play that physical game like st louis did. vegas has more top end talent than detroit. kane gives the wings that special player you need in the playoffs, but i'm leery that other teams will physically manhandle him in the playoffs and single him out in ways they dont in the regular season. when they physically target any of detroit's defensemen other than seider, the wings have a lot of trouble getting out of their own zone. think of ottawa last year. you'll see that more in the playoffs if they make it. with that said, they've built a really competitive team the only way they could without lottery luck: solid drafting and solid depth. they have -in theory- a lot of defensemen coming through to replace this old set they have now. if they get to the playoffs they'll need Lyon to continue to play very well. i can see them winning a couple games in round one but would be really surprised to see them take a 7 game series against any of the big teams in the east. they probably match up best against florida or carolina. i'd hate to see them get waxed by the leafs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 18 minutes ago, Hongbit said: Great post. I like the Vegas and StL comparisons but unfortunately they are in the West and that’s a completely different animal come playoffs. It’s so much more difficult having to come out of the East. Thank you! Obliviously the East is considerably tougher come playoff time than the West and that is the big hang up that all the stats in the world just can makeup for. Just because conference is considerably tougher now doesn't mean a year or two from now it still will be. I was trying to statistically point out a lot of the similarities between where we are right now and where Vegas/St. Louis were in their respective Cup winning years. Difference conferences and tougher playoff matchups clearly stand in our way. To Buddha's point, we don't play the physical style of hockey that St. Louis played, but I don't know if it will matter as much. Patrick Kane, while of course an older and a different player these days, has still managed to be a double digit point producer in the playoffs before and I'd like to think we can squeeze one more run out of him. Maybe teams will press on him harder in the playoffs and take him out of games. But he's still a very talented, crafty player, who can find his way to the net. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, buddha said: when they physically target any of detroit's defensemen other than seider, the wings have a lot of trouble getting out of their own zone. think of ottawa last year. you'll see that more in the playoffs if they make it. Chiarot has the size to hang when it gets physical, but your point still holds - even counting him with Seider it's not enough. IDK, Scotty used to hate the risk of young defensemen across the board, but I still wonder if it wouldn't be worth the risk to call Edvinsson up and see if he rises to the challenge. He's probably not doing much to add to his game at GR at this point anyway. Edited February 25 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) Edited February 25 by Sports_Freak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 18 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: At 57 games... I'm going to keep looking in the rearview mirror and try to add some more distance, at least for the next 10-12 games, before I look to see if we can pass someone else like the Leafs and/or the Hurricanes... But that's just me. right, that's me too. Which is why I'd prefer Tampa beat NJ today and that the Flyers beat the Penguins. Getting in is way more important to me than seeding, when the top 3 looks set to be Florida, Boston and NY Rangers in who knows what order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 3 hours ago, Hongbit said: Great post. I like the Vegas and StL comparisons but unfortunately they are in the West and that’s a completely different animal come playoffs. It’s so much more difficult having to come out of the East. True in recent 5-10 years but maybe not going forward. Pittsburgh and Washington are done as contenders. Florida looks strong but likely not a dynasty in the making. Toronto has the talent to put it together and win it all one of these years, but they certainly have playoff vulnerabilities and unless their big stars get even better how are they going to improve at all. Tampa has peaked. Boston hanging on for a bit but how much longer. Carolina may have plateaued. A few teams roughly equal to the Wings like the Devils and slanders. Rangers should be tough for the foreseeable future, but are they any better than the West's Colorado, Dallas and Edmonton. Edited February 25 by lordstanley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) Not that surprised that today might be a bit of a letdown game. Still would be nice to salvage a point or two against a bad team. Chicago 2 Detroit 1 with 13 minutes to go in regulation. Edited February 26 by lordstanley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) DeBrincat ties it from behind the goal line! 4 minutes to go, 2-2. Edited February 26 by lordstanley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Wings buzzing now, going for the win. 2:22 to go in the 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Overtime. Got a point at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) Kane with the storybook finish!! Edited February 26 by lordstanley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 God...I love this team... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 AWESOME OT goal there by Kaner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Storybook Kane goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Maybe the best return since Guy Ladleur went back to the Montreal Forum and scored for the Rangers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Another game where the Wings needed their goalie to step up and he did. Riemer made a lot of fine saves (again). He doesn't control rebounds very well though. Walman seemed kind of out of it tonight. Rare to hear his name so little in the PBP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Playoff odds up to 78% according to moneypuck.com. A week ago they were only at 53%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 53 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Playoff odds up to 78% according to moneypuck.com. A week ago they were only at 53%. I hate to be a wet blanket, this has been a fun streak, but I think there is some fool's gold here. There is no way the goaltending keeps up with the number of defensive breakdowns they are giving up. I fear there is a lot of regression waiting to rear it's ugly head if Yzerman doesn't do something before the deadline. Edited February 26 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 18 hours ago, lordstanley said: True in recent 5-10 years but maybe not going forward. Pittsburgh and Washington are done as contenders. Florida looks strong but likely not a dynasty in the making. Toronto has the talent to put it together and win it all one of these years, but they certainly have playoff vulnerabilities and unless their big stars get even better how are they going to improve at all. Tampa has peaked. Boston hanging on for a bit but how much longer. Carolina may have plateaued. A few teams roughly equal to the Wings like the Devils and slanders. Rangers should be tough for the foreseeable future, but are they any better than the West's Colorado, Dallas and Edmonton. I think I largely agree with what you are saying here. Assuming our young core currently in the NHL and those waiting in the wings (no pun) to come up keep developing as we hope they do, we will be set to be the future of the Eastern Conference, whereas teams like Tampa Bay represent its past success. I do agree with you that the Devils, and also likely the Rangers, are the teams we will be competing with heavily over the next 3-4 seasons for the East, as other, older rosters, continue to decline. Florida has a middle of the pack roster and core when it comes to the age of their team, but I don't fear Florida as some juggernaut the way I fear Boston or feared Tampa Bay in years past. Florida has a nice roster but nothing that I don't think our core couldn't get past in the playoffs. I'll believe it when I see it with Toronto at this point. Everyone blamed Babcock for their lack of playoff success and now Sheldon Keefe has been the HC for 4 seasons, with largely the same core of players in-tact, and his squads still can't get it done either. Toronto certainly has the offensive fire power to compete with the best of them, but they just haven't translated that into any kind of playoff success. I spent from 2020 to last season predicting Boston's downfall due to having one of the oldest rosters in the league and aging superstars on it. I thought once Chara was done they'd falter and they haven't in each of the subsequent seasons since he's been gone. I'm likely done predicting Boston's downfall at this point because they just keep on winning despite their older than league average roster year after year. At the beginning of the season I was not quite ready to count out Tampa Bay given that they still have Kucherov, Stammer, and Hedman. I had their window to still make a run in the playoffs as this season and they don't appear to be making anything of it. So I can start to get behind the idea that their window is closed. Though it feels like with that core of players, a big time deadline move could jolt them back in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 7 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: spent from 2020 to last season predicting Boston's downfall due to having one of the oldest rosters in the league The older roster hurts more in the post season. Their last two 1st place finishes didn't translate for them in the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: The older roster hurts more in the post season. Their last two 1st place finishes didn't translate for them in the playoffs. Would you want to take on Boston in the first round lol? Maybe that could be to our benefit, who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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