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2024 Detroit Tigers Spring Training Thread


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41 minutes ago, SkyBlue said:

If that is the only way to score runs, sure. 

Also the team did move the fences in a bit last year.

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/best-and-worst-ballparks-for-home-runs

Seattle and Tampa Bay have worse BP factors than Detroit and both were able to score runs last year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=3&sortDir=desc 

Edited by Tiger337
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Cody said on his podcast a rival evaluator came to him doing recon on Wentz's makeup, so take that for what it's worth.

The fact that they haven't made the call yet does tell me Wentz and Diaz aren't on the team, but they are trying not to lose them for nothing.

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49 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Cody said on his podcast a rival evaluator came to him doing recon on Wentz's makeup, so take that for what it's worth.

The fact that they haven't made the call yet does tell me Wentz and Diaz aren't on the team, but they are trying not to lose them for nothing.

Would an evaluator really consult with the local beat writers?  If so, what did Kieran have to say about Baddoo?

I do agree that a trade might occur—I would imagine that Faedo or Wentz could command a decent position prospect.  

Edited by Tenacious D
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2 hours ago, SkyBlue said:

If that is the only way to score runs, sure. 

Also the team did move the fences in a bit last year.

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/best-and-worst-ballparks-for-home-runs

Home runs is the most efficient way to score runs in bunches, since relying on stringing together three singles as an ongoing strategy is fraught with points-of-failure along the way. The correlation between runs scored and home runs for the perios 2014-2023 (excl. 2020) is +0.78, whereas that between runs scored and single-base events (i.e., 1B+BB+HBP) is +0.57—not nothing, but definitely not as good for as home runs.

Anyhow, people can go ahead and place prop bets on homers at Comerica Park based on whatever the hell Oddsshark is and what they put on their website, but based on Statcast, Comerica is hands down the worst home run park in baseball:

image.thumb.png.312337c42fe6f408ac5354e64060d80a.png

 

Beyond team run-scoring strategies, the real point is that big hitters, meaning those for whom home runs is a part of their game, are not going to consider the team with the worst home-run ballpark in baseball as a top destination, unless they have already made their hundred million and now prioritize winning over getting good and paid, so that they don't mind suppressing their stats to do so. I don't have anyone in mind who would be up for that even this year.

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Just now, chasfh said:

Home runs is the most efficient way to score runs in bunches, since relying on stringing together three singles as an ongoing strategy is fraught with points-of-failure along the way. The correlation between runs scored and home runs for the perios 2014-2023 (excl. 2020) is +0.78, whereas that between runs scored and single-base events (i.e., 1B+BB+HBP) is +0.57—not nothing, but definitely not as good for as home runs.

Anyhow, people can go ahead and place prop bets on homers at Comerica Park based on whatever the hell Oddsshark is and what they put on their website, but based on Statcast, Comerica is hands down the worst home run park in baseball:

image.thumb.png.312337c42fe6f408ac5354e64060d80a.png

 

Beyond team run-scoring strategies, the real point is that big hitters, meaning those for whom home runs is a part of their game, are not going to consider the team with the worst home-run ballpark in baseball as a top destination, unless they have already made their hundred million and now prioritize winning over getting good and paid, so that they don't mind suppressing their stats to do so. I don't have anyone in mind who would be up for that even this year.

I remember reading that Comerica is one of the better parks to score runs in. Maybe that's changed, I don't know. 

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12 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Faedo isn't the one being traded, and he has options, so you don't need to trade him.

Wentz, being out of options, would not fetch what you say. The Tigers have next to no leverage there.

A low-A reliever with high spin rates would be the return for Wentz... would be my guess.

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11 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Faedo isn't the one being traded, and he has options, so you don't need to trade him.

Wentz, being out of options, would not fetch what you say. The Tigers have next to no leverage there.

Oh ha ha, it was Wentz that was mentioned. I read it as Vest. I always mix up those two on paper.

Yeah, Wentz has been ****ing terrible during his career here. No way we get anything for him unless he can pitch more like Vest.

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3 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I remember reading that Comerica is one of the better parks to score runs in. Maybe that's changed, I don't know. 

Perhaps you read that from a beat writer? According to the same table above, Comerica's park factor for runs scored is 94. Just eyeballing it, that looks like it places them sixth from the bottom.

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1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Perhaps you read that from a beat writer? According to the same table above, Comerica's park factor for runs scored is 94. Just eyeballing it, that looks like it places them sixth from the bottom.

Your theory has a flaw...if it were such a hard place to score runs, wouldn't dominate pitchers be lined up to come here and pitch? If home run hitters don't want to come here because they can't hit homers and it's not a good hitting park, it seems like the Tigers would have a staff if Cy Young candidates....

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4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Your theory has a flaw...if it were such a hard place to score runs, wouldn't dominate pitchers be lined up to come here and pitch? If home run hitters don't want to come here because they can't hit homers and it's not a good hitting park, it seems like the Tigers would have a staff if Cy Young candidates....

Nobody is lining up to go to loser franchises, which is what the Tigers are and will continue to be regarded as until they start winning. Then let's talk.

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1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Nobody is lining up to go to loser franchises, which is what the Tigers are and will continue to be regarded as until they start winning. Then let's talk.

If it was so hard to score runs, the Tigers would build a team that could slap the ball all over the field. We've been at Comerica for over 20 years. Nobody has thought of this? Pitching and defense should be at a premium at this kind of stadium. But yeah, they stink, so nobody wants to play here. 🤓

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2 hours ago, Toddwert said:

yes ... draft picks are always lotto tickets I think we' have been lucky lately with drafts but there has been way more drafts for the Tigers werent got one player

Free agents aren't always a sure thing either.  See the SS?

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Home runs is the most efficient way to score runs in bunches, since relying on stringing together three singles as an ongoing strategy is fraught with points-of-failure along the way. The correlation between runs scored and home runs for the perios 2014-2023 (excl. 2020) is +0.78, whereas that between runs scored and single-base events (i.e., 1B+BB+HBP) is +0.57—not nothing, but definitely not as good for as home runs.

Anyhow, people can go ahead and place prop bets on homers at Comerica Park based on whatever the hell Oddsshark is and what they put on their website, but based on Statcast, Comerica is hands down the worst home run park in baseball:

image.thumb.png.312337c42fe6f408ac5354e64060d80a.png

 

Beyond team run-scoring strategies, the real point is that big hitters, meaning those for whom home runs is a part of their game, are not going to consider the team with the worst home-run ballpark in baseball as a top destination, unless they have already made their hundred million and now prioritize winning over getting good and paid, so that they don't mind suppressing their stats to do so. I don't have anyone in mind who would be up for that even this year.

Granted it's a great chart and data but it doesn't address my comment that the fences were moved between the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

The stats you show are for a three year period which means 2021-2023?  The fences were moved in 2023 so your data is flawed in relation to my post whereas the morons at Oddshark or whoever they are have just 2023 HR stats.   

But, carryon.

 

Edited by SkyBlue
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3 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

If it was so hard to score runs, the Tigers would build a team that could slap the ball all over the field. We've been at Comerica for over 20 years. Nobody has thought of this? Pitching and defense should be at a premium at this kind of stadium. But yeah, they stink, so nobody wants to play here. 🤓

Al Avila did try to build a team he thought would slap the ball all over the field. How did that work out for us?

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2 hours ago, SkyBlue said:

Granted it's a great chart and data but it doesn't address my comment that the fences were moved between the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

The stats you show are for a three year period which means 2021-2023?  The fences were moved in 2023 so your data is flawed in relation to my post whereas the morons at Oddshark or whoever they are have just 2023 HR stats.   

But, carryon.

 

Fair point. Here is the 2023 data only:

image.thumb.png.39881336ba652c21df4d684540e5768d.png

So instead of Comerica being dead last for home runs over a three-year period, they were 24th just for last year; and instead of Comerica launching home runs at -21% below league average from 2021-23, it launched home runs at -10% below league average in 2023.

Where does that leave us?

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