Tiger337 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 41 minutes ago, SkyBlue said: If that is the only way to score runs, sure. Also the team did move the fences in a bit last year. https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/best-and-worst-ballparks-for-home-runs Seattle and Tampa Bay have worse BP factors than Detroit and both were able to score runs last year. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=3&sortDir=desc Edited March 25 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Cody said on his podcast a rival evaluator came to him doing recon on Wentz's makeup, so take that for what it's worth. The fact that they haven't made the call yet does tell me Wentz and Diaz aren't on the team, but they are trying not to lose them for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: don't forget Meadows. If he can stick he's probably worth 0.15 on the team ERA by himself. I think he gets more than this season—technically still a rook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Cody said on his podcast a rival evaluator came to him doing recon on Wentz's makeup, so take that for what it's worth. The fact that they haven't made the call yet does tell me Wentz and Diaz aren't on the team, but they are trying not to lose them for nothing. Would an evaluator really consult with the local beat writers? If so, what did Kieran have to say about Baddoo? I do agree that a trade might occur—I would imagine that Faedo or Wentz could command a decent position prospect. Edited March 25 by Tenacious D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Faedo isn't the one being traded, and he has options, so you don't need to trade him. Wentz, being out of options, would not fetch what you say. The Tigers have next to no leverage there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, SkyBlue said: If that is the only way to score runs, sure. Also the team did move the fences in a bit last year. https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/best-and-worst-ballparks-for-home-runs Home runs is the most efficient way to score runs in bunches, since relying on stringing together three singles as an ongoing strategy is fraught with points-of-failure along the way. The correlation between runs scored and home runs for the perios 2014-2023 (excl. 2020) is +0.78, whereas that between runs scored and single-base events (i.e., 1B+BB+HBP) is +0.57—not nothing, but definitely not as good for as home runs. Anyhow, people can go ahead and place prop bets on homers at Comerica Park based on whatever the hell Oddsshark is and what they put on their website, but based on Statcast, Comerica is hands down the worst home run park in baseball: Beyond team run-scoring strategies, the real point is that big hitters, meaning those for whom home runs is a part of their game, are not going to consider the team with the worst home-run ballpark in baseball as a top destination, unless they have already made their hundred million and now prioritize winning over getting good and paid, so that they don't mind suppressing their stats to do so. I don't have anyone in mind who would be up for that even this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 36 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Would an evaluator really consult with the local beat writers? On personal makeup, versus on-field performance? Yeah, I could see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Just now, chasfh said: Home runs is the most efficient way to score runs in bunches, since relying on stringing together three singles as an ongoing strategy is fraught with points-of-failure along the way. The correlation between runs scored and home runs for the perios 2014-2023 (excl. 2020) is +0.78, whereas that between runs scored and single-base events (i.e., 1B+BB+HBP) is +0.57—not nothing, but definitely not as good for as home runs. Anyhow, people can go ahead and place prop bets on homers at Comerica Park based on whatever the hell Oddsshark is and what they put on their website, but based on Statcast, Comerica is hands down the worst home run park in baseball: Beyond team run-scoring strategies, the real point is that big hitters, meaning those for whom home runs is a part of their game, are not going to consider the team with the worst home-run ballpark in baseball as a top destination, unless they have already made their hundred million and now prioritize winning over getting good and paid, so that they don't mind suppressing their stats to do so. I don't have anyone in mind who would be up for that even this year. I remember reading that Comerica is one of the better parks to score runs in. Maybe that's changed, I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 12 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Faedo isn't the one being traded, and he has options, so you don't need to trade him. Wentz, being out of options, would not fetch what you say. The Tigers have next to no leverage there. A low-A reliever with high spin rates would be the return for Wentz... would be my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 11 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Faedo isn't the one being traded, and he has options, so you don't need to trade him. Wentz, being out of options, would not fetch what you say. The Tigers have next to no leverage there. Oh ha ha, it was Wentz that was mentioned. I read it as Vest. I always mix up those two on paper. Yeah, Wentz has been ****ing terrible during his career here. No way we get anything for him unless he can pitch more like Vest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: I remember reading that Comerica is one of the better parks to score runs in. Maybe that's changed, I don't know. Perhaps you read that from a beat writer? According to the same table above, Comerica's park factor for runs scored is 94. Just eyeballing it, that looks like it places them sixth from the bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, chasfh said: Perhaps you read that from a beat writer? According to the same table above, Comerica's park factor for runs scored is 94. Just eyeballing it, that looks like it places them sixth from the bottom. Your theory has a flaw...if it were such a hard place to score runs, wouldn't dominate pitchers be lined up to come here and pitch? If home run hitters don't want to come here because they can't hit homers and it's not a good hitting park, it seems like the Tigers would have a staff if Cy Young candidates.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: Your theory has a flaw...if it were such a hard place to score runs, wouldn't dominate pitchers be lined up to come here and pitch? If home run hitters don't want to come here because they can't hit homers and it's not a good hitting park, it seems like the Tigers would have a staff if Cy Young candidates.... Nobody is lining up to go to loser franchises, which is what the Tigers are and will continue to be regarded as until they start winning. Then let's talk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 10 minutes ago, chasfh said: Perhaps you read that from a beat writer? According to the same table above, Comerica's park factor for runs scored is 94. Just eyeballing it, that looks like it places them sixth from the bottom. And Baseball America doesn't agree with you; https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/a-new-way-to-think-about-ballpark-factors/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, chasfh said: Nobody is lining up to go to loser franchises, which is what the Tigers are and will continue to be regarded as until they start winning. Then let's talk. If it was so hard to score runs, the Tigers would build a team that could slap the ball all over the field. We've been at Comerica for over 20 years. Nobody has thought of this? Pitching and defense should be at a premium at this kind of stadium. But yeah, they stink, so nobody wants to play here. 🤓 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 for the DD fans out there, FGs project Phillies BP to be the best in 2024. TIgers at 23. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, Toddwert said: yes ... draft picks are always lotto tickets I think we' have been lucky lately with drafts but there has been way more drafts for the Tigers werent got one player Free agents aren't always a sure thing either. See the SS? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: for the DD fans out there, FGs project Phillies BP to be the best in 2024. TIgers at 23. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/ OH FOR F*** SAKE....now Dave builds a bullpen 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkyBlue Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Home runs is the most efficient way to score runs in bunches, since relying on stringing together three singles as an ongoing strategy is fraught with points-of-failure along the way. The correlation between runs scored and home runs for the perios 2014-2023 (excl. 2020) is +0.78, whereas that between runs scored and single-base events (i.e., 1B+BB+HBP) is +0.57—not nothing, but definitely not as good for as home runs. Anyhow, people can go ahead and place prop bets on homers at Comerica Park based on whatever the hell Oddsshark is and what they put on their website, but based on Statcast, Comerica is hands down the worst home run park in baseball: Beyond team run-scoring strategies, the real point is that big hitters, meaning those for whom home runs is a part of their game, are not going to consider the team with the worst home-run ballpark in baseball as a top destination, unless they have already made their hundred million and now prioritize winning over getting good and paid, so that they don't mind suppressing their stats to do so. I don't have anyone in mind who would be up for that even this year. Granted it's a great chart and data but it doesn't address my comment that the fences were moved between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The stats you show are for a three year period which means 2021-2023? The fences were moved in 2023 so your data is flawed in relation to my post whereas the morons at Oddshark or whoever they are have just 2023 HR stats. But, carryon. Edited March 25 by SkyBlue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 38 minutes ago, casimir said: Free agents aren't always a sure thing either. See the SS? he would be a better sure thing on a short term contract like what these guys signed for or will probably sign for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Earl Weaver used to say you won with three things...pitching, defense and three run HR's 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 hours ago, Sports_Freak said: And Baseball America doesn't agree with you; https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/a-new-way-to-think-about-ballpark-factors/ This isn't the first article from seven years ago that doesn't agree with my current way of thinking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 hours ago, Sports_Freak said: If it was so hard to score runs, the Tigers would build a team that could slap the ball all over the field. We've been at Comerica for over 20 years. Nobody has thought of this? Pitching and defense should be at a premium at this kind of stadium. But yeah, they stink, so nobody wants to play here. 🤓 Al Avila did try to build a team he thought would slap the ball all over the field. How did that work out for us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, SkyBlue said: Granted it's a great chart and data but it doesn't address my comment that the fences were moved between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The stats you show are for a three year period which means 2021-2023? The fences were moved in 2023 so your data is flawed in relation to my post whereas the morons at Oddshark or whoever they are have just 2023 HR stats. But, carryon. Fair point. Here is the 2023 data only: So instead of Comerica being dead last for home runs over a three-year period, they were 24th just for last year; and instead of Comerica launching home runs at -21% below league average from 2021-23, it launched home runs at -10% below league average in 2023. Where does that leave us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 58 minutes ago, Shinzaki said: Earl Weaver used to say you won with three things...pitching, defense and three run HR's Plus he had great advice for growing tomatoes. Well, at least for Alice Sweet, he did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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