2022 Michigan Elections

[chasfh]

19 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The solidification of Dems at the state level in MI, PA, MN is a signficant trend. Rightward dirft in national politics doesn't reverse at least until the dems show they can re-establish their primacy in states that should be moderate/democratic by history and temperment. Just need to figure out WTF is wrong with WI.

Maybe an entire political units’s population vacillates back and forth along the liberal-conservative spectrum, due to messaging unique to them at various times, and Wisconsin is simply on a different cycle from Michigan and the others …

[smr-nj]

I’m wondering if you all can hear my standing ovation to Michigan citizens from your eastern sisters & brothers in NJ.

[mtutiger]

21 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The solidification of Dems at the state level in MI, PA, MN is a signficant trend. Rightward dirft in national politics doesn't reverse at least until the dems show they can re-establish their primacy in states that should be moderate/democratic by history and temperment. Just need to figure out WTF is wrong with WI.

 

18 hours ago, ben9753 said:

And Ohio

Wisconsin: Less Urbanization and an insane amount of Gerrymandering at the Assembly / State Level

Ohio: Half of the State is Appalachia, which is blood red at this point. Metro areas not large enough to make up for it.

[mtutiger]

The good news about Wisconsin and why it should remain competitive for a while longer in state level races is that the WoW counties really slid in the Governors race. Evers gained something like 8-10% in Ozaukee / Waukesha / Washington Counties.... if that trend continues, that will counter some of the negative trends elsewhere in the state.

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

Wisconsin: Less Urbanization and an insane amount of Gerrymandering at the Assembly / State Level

Ohio: Half of the State is Appalachia, which is blood red at this point. Metro areas not large enough to make up for it.

True enough, the largest city in Ohio is neither very large (population wise) or very cosmopolitan by US standards.

[romad1]

The problem in Wisconsin is that Barnes was too prog for the center.  

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

True enough, the largest city in Ohio is neither very large (population wise) or very cosmopolitan by US standards.

The largest city in Ohio is like the 2nd largest in the Midwest and has a giant university in it.

[romad1]

This is cross-thread for 2022 Elections, Cleanup thread and the Idiocracy of Trump thread.

 

[Motown Bombers]

I keep noticing the rurals in Michigan aren't as bad as other states. Tudor was only running upper 50's and some lower 60's in northern Michigan. Only county I could find where she cracked 70 was Missaukee which was the only county Trump cracked 70.

[Motown Bombers]

Between Wayne and Oakland County, that's close to 3 million people. Whitmer won both counties at over 60%. Republicans have totally collapsed in Oakland County. While they have made gains in Macomb, Whitmer still won it and it is still a bit swingy and not nearly as favorable as Oakland is to Democrats.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The largest city in Ohio is like the 2nd largest in the Midwest and has a giant university in it.

It's huge city geographically, population in the city limits is still under 1M and it's mostly white.

[mtutiger]

24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Between Wayne and Oakland County, that's close to 3 million people. Whitmer won both counties at over 60%. Republicans have totally collapsed in Oakland County. While they have made gains in Macomb, Whitmer still won it and it is still a bit swingy and not nearly as favorable as Oakland is to Democrats.

And don't forget West Michigan.... Whitmer won Kent by 10 points (versus 3 in 2018) and shaved her margins from 2018 in Ottawa County. That's a LOT of vote out there.

From my perspective, the thing that should concern the Michigan GOP is that, outside of Macomb (which also isn't a guaranteed basket of votes in every election, as 2022 proved), the parts of the state where they excel in and/or where trends favor them (ie. Tri Cities/Flint) are all areas where population decline is particularly pronounced in the state. 

After 2016 and this election, I'll never write them off or assume demographics are destiny, but surface level it looks pretty grim at the moment.

Edited November 11, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

34 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I keep noticing the rurals in Michigan aren't as bad as other states. Tudor was only running upper 50's and some lower 60's in northern Michigan. Only county I could find where she cracked 70 was Missaukee which was the only county Trump cracked 70.

A big difference between rurals in the Upper Midwest (ie. WI, MI, MN) and OH/PA rurals is religion.... even growing up in Rural MI, religious faith always tended to be more mainstream/Catholic and less evangelical. 

One suspects that's part of why the bottom hasn't fallen as far in the Upper Midwest as it has in Ohio.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

And don't forget West Michigan.... Whitmer won Kent by 10 points (versus 3 in 2018) and shaved her margins from 2018 in Ottawa County. 

That's a LOT of vote out there.

Kent County is like early 2000's Oakland. It's increase in college educated and diversity is going to keep it moving to the left like Oakland. It wasn't that long ago that Oakland was a Republican stronghold. There's not a single Republican left in power in Oakland outside of Bouchard.

I'm not sure where the Republican base is in Michigan? Macomb is the only positive for them and even that is a bit swingy. Southern Macomb is also trending bluer so there is a ceiling in Macomb. The only other opportunity is to hope the bottom completely falls out for Democrats in the rurals.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, mtutiger said:

A big difference between rurals in the Upper Midwest (ie. WI, MI, MN) and OH/PA rurals is religion.... even growing up in Rural MI, religious faith always tended to be more mainstream/Catholic and less evangelical. 

One suspects that's part of why the bottom hasn't fallen as far in the Upper Midwest as it has in Ohio.

I would also guess that part of it is farm vs tourism in the rural areas. My impression over the years is that agriculture is more conservative than tourism. In tourism areas, there is always a lot of social contact with people from all the other places in the state.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Kent County is like early 2000's Oakland. It's increase in college educated and diversity is going to keep it moving to the left like Oakland. It wasn't that long ago that Oakland was a Republican stronghold. There's not a single Republican left in power in Oakland outside of Bouchard.

I'm not sure where the Republican base is in Michigan? Macomb is the only positive for them and even that is a bit swingy. Southern Macomb is also trending bluer so there is a ceiling in Macomb. The only other opportunity is to hope the bottom completely falls out for Democrats in the rurals.

The trends favor them in the Tri-Cities and Flint (ie. Dan Kildee's district).... but it's not the most dynamic part of the state population wise either.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

A big difference between rurals in the Upper Midwest (ie. WI, MI, MN) and OH/PA rurals is religion.... even growing up in Rural MI, religious faith always tended to be more mainstream/Catholic and less evangelical. 

One suspects that's part of why the bottom hasn't fallen as far in the Upper Midwest as it has in Ohio.

I think it's worth noting in Michigan it used to be you worked in the factories during the week and went up north on the weekend. After 30 years, you retired and moved up north. Northern Michigan has a lot of retirees from the Detroit area with a strong union legacy. With that said, Republicans are losing ground in Traverse City which is the largest area in the lower peninsula north of Bay City. They are getting close to losing Emmett as well. I just don't see rural Michigan becoming Appalachia any time soon.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

I think it's worth noting in Michigan it used to be you worked in the factories during the week and went up north on the weekend. After 30 years, you retired and moved up north. Northern Michigan has a lot of retirees from the Detroit area with a strong union legacy. 

also good point.

[LaceyLou]

1 hour ago, smr-nj said:

I’m wondering if you all can hear my standing ovation to Michigan citizens from your eastern sisters & brothers in NJ.

And from New England too! 

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I think it's worth noting in Michigan it used to be you worked in the factories during the week and went up north on the weekend. After 30 years, you retired and moved up north. Northern Michigan has a lot of retirees from the Detroit area with a strong union legacy. With that said, Republicans are losing ground in Traverse City which is the largest area in the lower peninsula north of Bay City. They are getting close to losing Emmett as well. I just don't see rural Michigan becoming Appalachia any time soon.

100%. 

The overarching thing here is that for as much as Michigan and Ohio are compared or considered alongside one another culturally (owing from things such as the Toledo Strip War and having the most legendary college football rivalry in the history of the sport), they are culturally very different places. 

The state that it compares to the most from my experience is Wisconsin, not Ohio. 

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The trends favor them in the Tri-Cities and Flint (ie. Dan Kildee's district).... but it's not the most dynamic part of the state population wise either.

I still see a ceiling there like Macomb. I suppose there is a ceiling in Oakland and Kent as well.

Isn't Midland trending bluer? I thought they were gaining in college educated. I was a bit surprised to see Whitmer pull a win in Isabella County. I know it's not tri-city but I didn't get the sense Mt Pleasant would pull it blue.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I still see a ceiling there like Macomb. I suppose there is a ceiling in Oakland and Kent as well.

Isn't Midland trending bluer? I thought they were gaining in college educated. I was a bit surprised to see Whitmer pull a win in Isabella County. I know it's not tri-city but I didn't get the sense Mt Pleasant would pull it blue.

Midland is trending blue, but Bay+Saginaw+Genesee are all trending the other direction and make up more population combined.

Overall the region is trending more toward GOP at the moment.

[Motown Bombers]

I didn't realize it, but Midland is probably poised to surpass Saginaw in population in the next census. Saginaw has completely emptied out.

[Motown Bombers]

The Tri-City area + Flint is probably the most Ohio like area in Michigan. Down and out shrinking industrial cities in the middle of agriculture.

[romad1]

Lets not congratulate Michigan too much.  Dar Leaf is still a Sheriff in Barry County.  Many of the nutters who wanted to kidnap the Governor and the militia movement are all from here.   But, yeah man the kids who waited online at Umich and MSU were heroes for sure.  Stamp out the stupid.