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Lions 2022 Offseason Thread


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Looking at Charles Harris contract on OTC, looks like only $7 million is guaranteed and it's basically a 1 year deal. They can cut him post June 1st in the 2nd year and save $6 million in cap space. The total value is $13 million but not sure if that includes incentives. These numbers are pretty good. They are only really committed to him for one year to see if last year wasn't a fluke. If it wasn't, they get a 2nd year. I was apprehensive about signing Harris but this looks like a solid deal. 

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

I am not sure I agree with all of his assumptions but there’s some reason in there.    

As I think about it more, it seems more likely that it’s not about overvaluing the current talent on the roster as I said yesterday but more about sticking with the plan.  

This was never a 2 year rebuild.   It was always part of the plan to still struggle a bit in year 2.  
 

They aren’t tanking by any means but there’s no real rush to dramatically improve the roster this season.   Getting to 7-8 wins and at least being around the playoff hunt later in the season would be a great result for year 2.   I think they want to give a longer look to some players on the roster that they probably would’ve moved on from if they were a year further along in the rebuild.   

Will be interesting to see what they do over the next few days.   

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33 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I am not sure I agree with all of his assumptions but there’s some reason in there.    

As I think about it more, it seems more likely that it’s not about overvaluing the current talent on the roster as I said yesterday but more about sticking with the plan.  

This was never a 2 year rebuild.   It was always part of the plan to still struggle a bit in year 2.  
 

They aren’t tanking by any means but there’s no real rush to dramatically improve the roster this season.   Getting to 7-8 wins and at least being around the playoff hunt later in the season would be a great result for year 2.   I think they want to give a longer look to some players on the roster that they probably would’ve moved on from if they were a year further along in the rebuild.   

Will be interesting to see what they do over the next few days.   

Yeah while quick rebuilds can happen in the NFL it was unrealistic to expect the Lions to be one of those considering how barren their roster was so it never really made sense to make a big splash in FA this year. 

Unlike other sports where you can sign a young player a year or two ahead of your timeline with the hopes of them being here when you're good in a sport like football that is a dangerous proposition. No matter the age you routinely see guys performance nose dive in any given year because the nature of the sport so you're playing russian roulette signing a guy to big money in hopes that they will still be that same player a year or two from now, even if they aren't that old. 

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28 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I am not sure I agree with all of his assumptions but there’s some reason in there.    

As I think about it more, it seems more likely that it’s not about overvaluing the current talent on the roster as I said yesterday but more about sticking with the plan.  

This was never a 2 year rebuild.   It was always part of the plan to still struggle a bit in year 2.  
 

They aren’t tanking by any means but there’s no real rush to dramatically improve the roster this season.   Getting to 7-8 wins and at least being around the playoff hunt later in the season would be a great result for year 2.   I think they want to give a longer look to some players on the roster that they probably would’ve moved on from if they were a year further along in the rebuild.   

Will be interesting to see what they do over the next few days.   

It seems like they are sticking to a plan and that plan is to build through the draft. I think Jamaal Williams is the only external free agent they signed to more than one year. What stood out to me in the article is that about 50% of the roster doesn't have guaranteed contracts. I think we are still in phase one of build through the draft and culture change. 

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I much prefer what the Lions are doing in terms of a rebuild compared to like the Jaguars. Not even just in terms of the Jags vastly overpaying for these players, but in terms of having a sort of vision for the future.

The Lions are accumulating draft picks, and (though a small sample size) are hitting on those picks. They're keeping the players that can fill a role moving forward, but not over-committing to them (financially or in length). It seems like the Jaguars are just saying "eh, we have the money, f it" and going out and just trying to plug holes in their roster with whatever they can afford, as if it will instantly make them a contender.

As Hongbit said, this is a larger than two year rebuild. A year or two from now, I think we might be able to say that we are only one or two pieces from really competing. At that point, I think it's more reasonable to say "let's go out and spend $70M on a guy who can come in here and instantly put us over the top", rather than spending $70M this year on a guy to fill a hole that for all we know could be filled in the draft, at a much cheaper price for just as long. As opposed to the Jaguars, who seem to just be throwing s*** at the wall and seeing if it will stick long enough to win a few games.

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20 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I much prefer what the Lions are doing in terms of a rebuild compared to like the Jaguars. Not even just in terms of the Jags vastly overpaying for these players, but in terms of having a sort of vision for the future.

The Lions are accumulating draft picks, and (though a small sample size) are hitting on those picks. They're keeping the players that can fill a role moving forward, but not over-committing to them (financially or in length). It seems like the Jaguars are just saying "eh, we have the money, f it" and going out and just trying to plug holes in their roster with whatever they can afford, as if it will instantly make them a contender.

As Hongbit said, this is a larger than two year rebuild. A year or two from now, I think we might be able to say that we are only one or two pieces from really competing. At that point, I think it's more reasonable to say "let's go out and spend $70M on a guy who can come in here and instantly put us over the top", rather than spending $70M this year on a guy to fill a hole that for all we know could be filled in the draft, at a much cheaper price for just as long. As opposed to the Jaguars, who seem to just be throwing s*** at the wall and seeing if it will stick long enough to win a few games.

I agree with this. I'm glad they didn't go break the bank on mid-level talent or aging players. We're not in a position yet to go gangbusters in free agency and throw around stupid money for guys like Allen Robinson, Von Miller, J.C. Jackson, etc. I'm glad they didn't do desperate things and happy to see Holmes sticking to some sort long term of plan here. So far I really like what I've watched from Brad Holmes and Co. in 1 1/2 offseasons and like the plan they are putting together by building with younger, cheaper talent for now and spending when the roster is in a position to starting winning, which isn't right now. Patience is a good thing right now and there is no need to break the bank just to try and get this team to 7-8-0 wins next season.

There were a couple of players I really wanted in free agency. Marcus Williams or Jessie Bates were the big splash's I wanted them to make but they missed out on Williams and Bates resigned with the Bengals. I also wanted De'Vondre Campbell or someone of similar stature to upgrade the LB unit. But truthfully, they could just as easily acquire that type of talent in the draft too with all the capital they have.

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

There were a couple of players I really wanted in free agency. Marcus Williams or Jessie Bates were the big splash's I wanted them to make but they missed out on Williams and Bates resigned with the Bengals. I also wanted De'Vondre Campbell or someone of similar stature to upgrade the LB unit. But truthfully, they could just as easily acquire that type of talent in the draft too with all the capital they have.

Likewise. Even removing Williams from the equation, I'd be lying if I didn't wince a little at seeing Myles Jack sign with the Steelers for 2/16 and Jordan Whitehead sign with the Jets for 2/14.5. Those are two pretty good players at positions of need that signed for value deals.

I appreciate them sticking with the plan though, because at the end of the day, if we pick up Nakobe Dean at 32, or even a sleeper safety at 97 that Glenn and Pleasant see potential in, we could get a starter on a rookie deal way cheaper than Williams or Campbell (or Jack or Whitehead for that matter), for just as long or longer... That money saved can then go towards picking up a playmaker in an offseason when we are preparing to overtake the Packers for the division in 2023 or 2024.

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On 3/15/2022 at 7:06 PM, Sports_Freak said:

Show me a team that leads the league in turnovers and made the playoffs. In the history of any football.

What the hell is that even supposed to mean. it makes no sense. 

Nobody said you can win with a bad offense. It's just the idea that a good offense makes it -- your words not mine -- less stressful for a defense has never been proven true. It's coach speak that isn't based in facts at all. 

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16 minutes ago, KL2 said:

What the hell is that even supposed to mean. it makes no sense. 

Nobody said you can win with a bad offense. It's just the idea that a good offense makes it -- your words not mine -- less stressful for a defense has never been proven true. It's coach speak that isn't based in facts at all. 

LOL - in fact Wayne Fontes, Barry Sanders, and June Junes proved that too potent an offense makes life harder for the Defense as they end up on the field for 40min!

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1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

A good offense doesnt magically make a defense better per se but it can help the overall numbers by keeping the defense off the field more. After all the more time your offense has the ball the less time your bad defense is out there. 

right - time of possession is the main effect - but as noted - time of possession and scoring usually go together, but not always. The other plus is that an offense that gets a lead and puts the other team into a forced pass orientation can also be a big help - but that's only if you have a defense that can take advantage. If the strength of your D is run stopping but your secondary sucks,  putting the other team into their pass offense might be the door to a 4th quarter comeback!

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Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Matt Ryan has a massive dead cap hit. I wonder how Atlanta plans to do this?

And the Saints are right at the cap.  It shows that you can get creative if you need to.  It pushes it back to later (which the Saints have done over and over) but it can be done.

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1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

If Atlanta trades for Watson, they would then assume Watson's $40 million cap hit right? Matt Ryan has a $40 million dead cap if traded before June 1st. That's $80 million in QBs. 

They would only assume Watson’s current $35 mil base salary.  They could restructure to a $1 mil base and $34 mil signing bonus which would spread the $34 mil over 3 years making his current hit at $12.33 mil (1 mil plus 11.33 mil from the bonus) that makes the next 2 years hit $11.33 mil higher but they can deal with it later.

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