Lions 2022 Offseason Thread

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

We all saw Kalif Raymond and Hodge as his main downfield targets, we don't need to pretend they were good. They weren't. 

in 2020 he was in the bottom 3rd of the league in yards per pass thrown and he had robert woods and cooper kupp.

they were good, right?

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

It seemed odd to me that they only took one corner and took him so late. So they seem to have confidence in who they have, whether that includes Okudah or not.

I think they are really high on Ifeatu Melifonwu and between him and Okudah, they want to see what they have. Melifonwu was hurt for almost all of last season as well, so they anticipate getting something out of him and being able to develop him. He is another highly athletic corner who tested well and has a high RAS score at 9.69.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

If Goff ends up as a middle of the pack QB at season's end, where he is somewhere between 14-17 or so in total yards, TDs, attempts, completion % does that warrant hanging onto him? What does the stat line look like if we're keeping Goff?

For me, I'm almost always willing to take the gamble on the new guy and the unknown. If I was so willing to move on from Stafford, I'd be willing to move on from Goff if it means having a shot at a prospect like Stroud or Young.

[RandyMarsh]

Melifonwu was one of my favorite picks post draft last year so I have a bit of high hopes with him especially working with our coaches who seem to be a bit of DB whisperers.

[buddha]

15 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think they are really high on Ifeatu Melifonwu and between him and Okudah, they want to see what they have. Melifonwu was hurt for almost all of last season as well, so they anticipate getting something out of him and being able to develop him. He is another highly athletic corner who tested well and has a high RAS score at 9.69.

i dont know if melifonwu ends up at corner.  he played some corner last year and got burned pretty badly.  but he waa coming off an injury and was a rookie, so plenty of time to grow.

[Motown Bombers]

22 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If Goff ends up as a middle of the pack QB at season's end, where he is somewhere between 14-17 or so in total yards, TDs, attempts, completion % does that warrant hanging onto him? What does the stat line look like if we're keeping Goff?

For me, I'm almost always willing to take the gamble on the new guy and the unknown. If I was so willing to move on from Stafford, I'd be willing to move on from Goff if it means having a shot at a prospect like Stroud or Young.

I'm old enough to remember when you wanted Goff over Stafford. If one of the top QBs are available to the Lions without having to trade multiple picks, then I would do it. If not, I roll with Goff again and continue to build the roster. 

[RandyMarsh]

17 minutes ago, buddha said:

i dont know if melifonwu ends up at corner.  he played some corner last year and got burned pretty badly.  but he waa coming off an injury and was a rookie, so plenty of time to grow.

The optimist in me is thinking it's just cause he was a rookie coming off an injury and will be able to stick at corner and be a solid one at that.

I remember Slay getting burnt routinely his rookie year and he ended up making a big leap in the following years, I hope and expect Melifonwu to do the same, likely not to the extent Slay did but atleast to some extent. 

[buddha]

i thought parker and jacobs played well last year.  walker was decent too.

that said, the back seven is still an issue.  dt is an under the radar issue too, but there we have to hope levi improves.  brockers may be finished in the way ngata and harrison were when they were here more than one season.  the new scheme may help, plus the additions on the edge should obviously help too.

the seattle game and the eagles game were reminders of how it can go really wrong for this defense if they cant stop the run.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm old enough to remember when you wanted Goff over Stafford. If one of the top QBs are available to the Lions without having to trade multiple picks, then I would do it. If not, I roll with Goff again and continue to build the roster. 

Yep! That was around 2019/2020 I believe and at that point Goff had done things Stafford had not, win multiple playoff games and lead a team to a Super Bowl. That was also before we saw the full regression of Goff as we have over the past two seasons, I think it was anyways. Clearly, Stafford proved me and a lot of other people wrong.

[buddha]

one thing i do like about this team ia that they are building up the lines.  i know its passe in the nfl to build through the trenches and now everyone wants to build inside out, but football is still a game dominated by very large men who can do very athletic things.  the lions look solid on the oline and now have some young pieces on the dline.  i think that's a positive.

if i'm looking to next year's draft, the obvious needs to finish off the foundation are qb and cb.  even if you like goff, having a young, dynamic qb could take the team's future in a great direction.

[Jason_R]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

It seemed odd to me that they only took one corner and took him so late. So they seem to have confidence in who they have, whether that includes Okudah or not.

Or maybe they had a limited number of picks and a finite bucket of players to choose from.

[Motown Bombers]

12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Yep! That was around 2019/2020 I believe and at that point Goff had done things Stafford had not, win multiple playoff games and lead a team to a Super Bowl. That was also before we saw the full regression of Goff as we have over the past two seasons, I think it was anyways. Clearly, Stafford proved me and a lot of other people wrong.

Stafford also regressed at the same age as Goff. I find it hard to believe the QB Goff was in 2017 and 2018 is completely gone forever. He showed signs at the end of last year with a new coordinator and anything resembling a deep threat in Reynolds. I'm not going all in on a new QB yet. It's like we learned nothing from the Stafford era. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

31 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Stafford also regressed at the same age as Goff. I find it hard to believe the QB Goff was in 2017 and 2018 is completely gone forever. He showed signs at the end of last year with a new coordinator and anything resembling a deep threat in Reynolds. I'm not going all in on a new QB yet. It's like we learned nothing from the Stafford era. 

I can't speak to everyone's individual concerns or desires, but I know a lot of fans, myself included, have expressed interest in taking the gamble on a young QB because of the cap benefits a rookie contract brings and because some feel Goff hit his ceiling and regressed. We got screwed on the Stafford contract in comparison to other franchises who got the benefit of loading up a roster because they had a QB on a rookie deal. So the recency bias of teams like Seattle, Kansas City, and Cincinnati having Super Bowl success as a result of having top-tier QBs on rookie deals is appealing to Lions fans, me included, since we didn't get it with Stafford. Goff is a known commodity and neither Stroud or Young are. But fans want to take that gamble because they feel Goff won't bounce back to be the Super Bowl QB he was and like the appeal of what the new kid on the block could be and the fact that we could spend like gangbusters in free agency for a few offseasons with one on a rookie deal.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Stanley70]

I think Goff will be at a mediocre level for the next few years where they won't have to replace him, but they would like to if the correct opportunity presents itself. 

If Goff plays ok this year, next year they can concentrate on the back 7 on defense and depth. They should have quite a bit of cap space, more if they rework Goff's contract, and 2 first round picks. But if they can bring in a good QB Holmes has shown he will pounce.

[RandyMarsh]

If Goff shows no signs of returning to his form from a few years ago theres no doubt in my mind that Holmes will pounce at either an available veteran or use an early pick on a qb.

I think he wisely is giving Goff one more chance considering the lack of weapons he had last year and the fact that I personally believe he was banged up for a good portion of the season but if he doesnt look good this year then Holmes is going to move on.

He's smart enough to know that while you can win with average qb play(admittedly that's not easy but it can atleast be done) you have no chance if the qb is bottom 5ish like Goff played for the first half of last year. Last year's Browns are a testament to that. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[buddha]

goff's contract will also be up in a couple years.  it would be nice to have a ready replacement on a rookie deal rather than having to extend goff for $10-20 millon or give up assets in a trade or take someone else's failed project.

[RandyMarsh]

Assuming Goff isn't the guy I think next draft is when we make our move. Obviously a lot can change but according to most of the big boards I have seen, 5 out of the top 10 guys are qbs so even if we don't finish with a top 5 pick if that holds up we should be picking close enough where we'll have the ammo to move up and grab one of them. Much like the Bears did with Fields.

[MichiganCardinal]

3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If Goff ends up as a middle of the pack QB at season's end, where he is somewhere between 14-17 or so in total yards, TDs, attempts, completion % does that warrant hanging onto him? What does the stat line look like if we're keeping Goff?

It would be nice if it was this objective, but it never will be. There is no golden mark where if Goff completes X% of his passes, or has a X passer rating, we will keep him versus obtaining a replacement - in the draft, trade market, or otherwise. 

Using the gold standard of Lions/Goff comparison again in the Chiefs/Alex Smith, I’m sure the Chiefs didn’t come into the 2016 season saying that Alex Smith needed to be ‘this’ good, or we will replace him. They likely didn’t even go into the 2017 Draft saying that they ‘had’ to get a QB. Rather, they came into the draft with Alex Smith, a guy they really liked in Pat Mahomes slipped a little, and they went up and got him.

I would expect it to be similar for the Lions. You have a guy in Jared Goff. As long as he’s not actively losing you games (and in fairness he approached that bar for a time in 2021), I think he will be the guy until such a time a clearly better situation presents itself.

[MichiganCardinal]

6 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Assuming Goff isn't the guy I think next draft is when we make our move. Obviously a lot can change but according to most of the big boards I have seen, 5 out of the top 10 guys are qbs so even if we don't finish with a top 5 pick if that holds up we should be picking close enough where we'll have the ammo to move up and grab one of them. Much like the Bears did with Fields.

I agree with your comments about the draft board (though a lot can change in a year as you said). That said, I don’t think Holmes is the type to take a QB for the sake of convenience or for the sake of taking one. He could have taken Fields himself if he wanted to. He had multiple opportunities to take any of the 2022 class.

I think he simply wants the right guy to place in the right situation. Finding that guy may be easier in 2023, but I don’t think his grand plan includes a bullet point of “draft QB in 2023”. If Goff isn’t actively losing us games, he may be here in 2023 as well.

[RandyMarsh]

26 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I agree with your comments about the draft board (though a lot can change in a year as you said). That said, I don’t think Holmes is the type to take a QB for the sake of convenience or for the sake of taking one. He could have taken Fields himself if he wanted to. He had multiple opportunities to take any of the 2022 class.

I think he simply wants the right guy to place in the right situation. Finding that guy may be easier in 2023, but I don’t think his grand plan includes a bullet point of “draft QB in 2023”. If Goff isn’t actively losing us games, he may be here in 2023 as well.

Yeah I do agree he won't just take a qb early cause they need one or are projected to go in the 1st round simply cause the qb class is weak, much like this year.

Like I don't see him using a 1st on a Christian Ponder or Blake Bortles like teams of the past did simply cause they wanted a qb, the guy he drafts will have to be a legit top half of the first graded qb or he simply will draft another position and look for his qb elsewhere. 

I shouldve prefaced this with assuming we aren't fortunate enough to build up the rest of the roster enough where are holes are limited and we can take a chance using an early pick on a qb that may have a flaw or two that prevented him from being a top guy. I think if we ever get to that point then Holmes would be willing to take a flyer and hope it pans out much like the Ravens did with Jackson. He had his flaws coming into the draft but they had so few holes they were willing to take a chance on him and see what happened.

Edited May 4, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[Motown Bombers]

I keep thinking back to that great QB class of 2018. Four QB's taken in the top 10. Only four years later and only one of them will remain with the team that drafted him.

[buddha]

18 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I agree with your comments about the draft board (though a lot can change in a year as you said). That said, I don’t think Holmes is the type to take a QB for the sake of convenience or for the sake of taking one. He could have taken Fields himself if he wanted to. He had multiple opportunities to take any of the 2022 class.

I think he simply wants the right guy to place in the right situation. Finding that guy may be easier in 2023, but I don’t think his grand plan includes a bullet point of “draft QB in 2023”. If Goff isn’t actively losing us games, he may be here in 2023 as well.

i think fields was outside their timeline.  he needed to rebuild the roster first.  get most everything else set then bring in the qb on a rookie deal.  let him learn for a year, then make your moves for free agents to finish the build.

that's why i think they'll go qb next year if they dont have to sell the farm to do it and there is someone worth taking that high.  he sits for 2023 while goff plays on a decent deal, then they get off goff's deal after 2023 for nothing and let the new qb roll.  and have oodles of salary cap space to play with if they need a qb or cb or a star player to supplement.  if they took fields, they'd be halfway through his rookie deal before he could takeover and they'd be without a building block at a prime position like sewell.

that's the plan.  lion-dom sometimes gets in the way...

[RandyMarsh]

9 minutes ago, buddha said:

i think fields was outside their timeline.  he needed to rebuild the roster first.  get most everything else set then bring in the qb on a rookie deal.  let him learn for a year, then make your moves for free agents to finish the build.

that's why i think they'll go qb next year if they dont have to sell the farm to do it and there is someone worth taking that high.  he sits for 2023 while goff plays on a decent deal, then they get off goff's deal after 2023 for nothing and let the new qb roll.  and have oodles of salary cap space to play with if they need a qb or cb or a star player to supplement.  if they took fields, they'd be halfway through his rookie deal before he could takeover and they'd be without a building block at a prime position like sewell.

that's the plan.  lion-dom sometimes gets in the way...

I do agree about the timing of Fields, I think Holmes wanted to build up the team more before drafting a qb with a bare cupboard, plus I think he still had faith in Goff last year and wanted to give him a chance. I mean he obviously still did does to some extent but I think last year there was more hope with him. 

I do wonder if Fields was in this draft if they wouldve taken him over Hutch?

[TP_Fan]

 

[KL2]

On 5/4/2022 at 10:14 AM, Motown Bombers said:

I think Goff was injured for much of the season. 

Yeah cause arm strength usually improves after 5 years....