Lions 2022 Offseason Thread

[KL2]

On 5/4/2022 at 9:28 AM, RedRamage said:

Unless I'm very much mistaken people are aren't saying we should commit to Goff and only Goff for the next 4-5 years. I believe people are saying: "We could be competitive this year maybe... and hey if Goff shows massive improvement maybe we stick with him long term. If he doesn't, we look at addressing QB next off season."

And that's my exact point. 

That's the fool hearty thinking. All those problems I laid out, everything would have to break right for that quote to be true. What's the chances of that? You said maybe to a lot of em. Sure the lions are magically gonna finally turn it around for the first time in 70s. Sure a fast guy is magically gonna make it so he can throw it in the air 20 more yards. Gonna have to explain the physics to me on that one. Its not a matter of guys not getting open on the long ball, its the fact he can't do it.    

Why are we trying to convince ourself maybe he is OK and then let's waste some more years seeing what he can do longterm still as an average, at best, QB? Great now in 5 years we still don't have a QB, have now wasted these young guys on rookie deals and are right back to square 1. I don't get why that thing you posted is a good thing or reasonable for a 7 year starter. It's like sitting around hoping Jiminez finally figures it out. At some point guys are what they are. Gofff is a fine journeyman starter, might even win you some games if you have a decent team. But, nobody wants to be Iowa in the NFL. That's what Goff is he's Iowa. 8-4. An occasional 10-2 but fall short in the end. 

[RandyMarsh]

Who is a better option out there right now that the Lions could've realistically gotten? I would agree with your sentiment if the Lions passed on a Lawrence or even Zack Wilson but they didn't. The qbs in the draft are just as flawed if not more so than Goff.

As far as potential trade targets perhaps they could've gone after Matt Ryan or Wentz but again I don't think either is a real upgrade over Goff so unless somebody like Watson or Russel Wilson were willing to come here the best option for the Lions is to give the qb they have the most weapons they can and see what he can do with them. If he still sucks this year there's no doubt in my mind they will move on from him then.

[Motown Bombers]

36 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Yeah cause arm strength usually improves after 5 years....

I don't think his issue was lack of arm strength. Besides, Drew Brees made a nice career for himself without elite arm strength coming off a shoulder injury. 

I also don't think in 5 years the same guy who was able to throw 55 yards in the air suddenly can't even throw it 20 yards in the air at age 27 without any serious arm injury. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[Mr.TaterSalad]

40 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Who is a better option out there right now that the Lions could've realistically gotten? I would agree with your sentiment if the Lions passed on a Lawrence or even Zack Wilson but they didn't. The qbs in the draft are just as flawed if not more so than Goff.

As far as potential trade targets perhaps they could've gone after Matt Ryan or Wentz but again I don't think either is a real upgrade over Goff so unless somebody like Watson or Russel Wilson were willing to come here the best option for the Lions is to give the qb they have the most weapons they can and see what he can do with them. If he still sucks this year there's no doubt in my mind they will move on from him then.

If you listen to some fans and some of the sports radio talking heads, trading for Deshaun Watson was the better option or at least being in on that conversation. I know Valenti was pounding the desk on 97.1 for the Lions to be aggressive and go get Watson and so were a very small minority of Lions fans. I didn't want to do it, I'm glad we didn't do it because I don't know that Watson would even want to come here and stick around in the end . I also didn't want to give up that kind of draft capital just yet because this team isn't a QB away from winning it all.

If Goff doesn't bounce back to close to 2017-2018 form next year I will join the chorus and start pounding the desk for someone better. For me, that probably involves finding a way to be at or near the top of the draft to get the one of the top QB prospects. I don't know if K12 wanted Watson or not, but when you talk about what the alternative scenario would have been, getting Watson in a trade was it versus drafting one of these underwhelming QBs this year.

[Motown Bombers]

Do people forget that the Texans were 4-12 in Watson's last season with a roster that was probably no worse than the Lions roster? Have we not learned from the Stafford era that you can't just throw a QB on the team and except them to carry an inferior roster? 

[Longgone]

1 hour ago, KL2 said:

That's the fool hearty thinking. All those problems I laid out, everything would have to break right for that quote to be true. What's the chances of that? You said maybe to a lot of em. Sure the lions are magically gonna finally turn it around for the first time in 70s. Sure a fast guy is magically gonna make it so he can throw it in the air 20 more yards. Gonna have to explain the physics to me on that one. Its not a matter of guys not getting open on the long ball, its the fact he can't do it.    

What are you talking about? Goff has above average arm strength and can make every throw. He may be inconsistent at times, and he's not Stafford, but arm strength is not the issue.

[Motown Bombers]

18 minutes ago, Longgone said:

What are you talking about? Goff has above average arm strength and can make every throw. He may be inconsistent at times, and he's not Stafford, but arm strength is not the issue.

People seem to equate his lack of completing passes downfield and propensity to check down as lacking arm strength. He's only 27 and was launching the ball 50+ yards down the field earlier in his career. I'm not buying he can still throw deep at his age and I'm unaware of any serious career altering injury he had that prevents him from throwing deep. 

FWIW, I think he can throw it downfield as far as Stafford can. Stafford's arm strength really shined on his ability to throw it on a line between defenders. Goff doesn't have that kind of arm strength but he can hit a Williams behind the defense deep downfield. 

[RandyMarsh]

I mentioned before but Goff threw a TD pass a few years ago that was measured as going 62 yards in the air, for reference the furthest ball ever measured in an NFL game traveled 70 yards in the air so he wasn't THAT far off from that. 

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

23 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

It would be nice if it was this objective, but it never will be. There is no golden mark where if Goff completes X% of his passes, or has a X passer rating, we will keep him versus obtaining a replacement - in the draft, trade market, or otherwise. 

Using the gold standard of Lions/Goff comparison again in the Chiefs/Alex Smith, I’m sure the Chiefs didn’t come into the 2016 season saying that Alex Smith needed to be ‘this’ good, or we will replace him. They likely didn’t even go into the 2017 Draft saying that they ‘had’ to get a QB. Rather, they came into the draft with Alex Smith, a guy they really liked in Pat Mahomes slipped a little, and they went up and got him.

I would expect it to be similar for the Lions. You have a guy in Jared Goff. As long as he’s not actively losing you games (and in fairness he approached that bar for a time in 2021), I think he will be the guy until such a time a clearly better situation presents itself.

See, I think there can be an objective golden mark as far as keeping Goff is concerned or not. It's part of what got me in trouble with Stafford, trying to appropriate a golden metric on a starting QB, but I sort of still think you can. With Stafford, I used to project his record and stats against quality defense as my shining example to prove he wasn't capable of elevating a team in the playoffs and thus should be traded. Sometimes you can use statistics to paint a narrative that isn't really true.

In-regards to Goff, the similar to what was said for and against Stafford can be said here. No, the QB isn't the only player on the field and is incapable of winning al by himself. There are a myriad of other factors at play from performance of the players around him, health/injuries, coaching, scheme, etc. I do think, barring a rash of injuries, awful coaching from Campbell and Co. or that it turns out Holmes draft picks were simply horrible, I still think there are metrics you can measure Goff on. This team went from having little offensive talent to quite a bit in one offseason. Swift/Williams at RB, Williams/St.Brown/Chark/Reynolds at WR, and Hockenson at TE, all with a really good OL in front of them should be ample enough for a QB to succeed personnel wise. Sure, it will take time for everyone to gel with one another, but the offensive talent is there. Goff should be able to win games with what he has and we shouldn't be sitting here during the season looking at the offensive personnel as the reason we are losing. It's the defenses inability to stop or cover anyone that should be our likely narrative for why we lose. God help us if it is coaching related.

So the metrics I would be measuring Goff by are some of the obvious ones like completion %, yards, TDs, scoring, wins/losses. Did he produce and score when we had possession? But I also want to dive deeper into time of possession, turnover ratio, fumbles/did he cut down on them, yards per pass, air yards, air yard differential, total time to throw (how long was he holding onto the ball). This team, offensively speaking, has the talent to win 8-10 games if coaching and QB play don't get in the way. So while I won't be as rigid as I was with Stafford and my "he can't ever beat good defenses" narrative, I do think we can and should closely be watching the aforementioned stats from Goff and if he doesn't hit certain metrics by season's end, look elsewhere for a QB.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motown Bombers]

I seem to recall when Stafford put up those great stats it was stat padding. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[buddha]

almost every nfl qb can throw the ball 50 yards in the air.  the question is can he do it accurately and on time.  is he scared?  is it a 50 yard duck floater?  does he handle pocket pressure?  can he identify the open receiver and hit him in stride?

in the first part of the year goff was awful and the answer to almost all those questions was "no."  at the very end of the year, he looked better.  more comfortable in the pocket.  he was still throwing ducks, but he completed a lot more of them.  not a big number of downfield shots, but enough.  he looked average.  competent.  

but not really good and certainly not like a top qb.

the lions have lots of guys who are ok, or decent, or good on their best days.  but they could certainly be helped if they improved those players.  and a better qb would make the team better too.

if they can draft a potentially better qb next year, they should definitely try to do that.  or get a better one on the trade market.

[gehringer_2]

29 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

People seem to equate his lack of completing passes downfield and propensity to check down as lacking arm strength. He's only 27 and was launching the ball 50+ yards down the field earlier in his career. I'm not buying he can still throw deep at his age and I'm unaware of any serious career altering injury he had that prevents him from throwing deep. 

FWIW, I think he can throw it downfield as far as Stafford can. Stafford's arm strength really shined on his ability to throw it on a line between defenders. Goff doesn't have that kind of arm strength but he can hit a Williams behind the defense deep downfield. 

so I just pulled up the highlight reels from the Ariz and GB games. It was true I didn't see the Lions running much in the way of posts or flies, but Goff completed several passes with plenty of zip to spare on routes where the throw was 30-35yds in the air. From a summary tape you don't know if longer routes were there but missed or not in the playbook. If not in the playbook maybe because earlier in the season he couldn't throw them, of they didn't have confidence in the rest of the personnel package - IDK. But at least in those last two games it didn't look to me like he had any trouble throwing the ball hard.

[buddha]

how many games does goff have where he completes 25 passes for 200 yards or so?  a bunch.

dink dunk dink dunk.  checkdown checkdown.

now, none of us have the all 22 and none of us know the plays, so we dont know what goff could have done.  but i recall plenty of times when guys were open and goff just didnt throw it or didnt see it.  look at the denver game.  or the chicago game.  or the philly game.  actually, dont look at the philly game.

[buddha]

joey harrington could throw the ball 50 yards in the air too...

[RandyMarsh]

I'm still of the belief that Goff was hurt most of the year and I think it first started in week 2 against GB.

He struggled in week 1 against SF but he did mix in some impressive throws, he just made a couple mental errors that killed us. 

Then in GB, the first half he was damn near perfect,  it was MNF and I remember watching the Peyton and Eli thing and both made mention to how good some of his throws were. Then he got knocked down a couple times in the 2nd half and proceeded to play like shit. He basically played like that until he finally took the time off for his injury then when he returned he looked and played like a different qb.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I seem to recall when Stafford put up those great stats it was stat padding. 

Sure, some fans were just peddling a narrative out of dislike for Stafford, myself included in that. Some did and some didn't try to justify it with stats. For me, the padding argument was always about quarter splits and my frustration that Stafford's second most productive quarter was the 4th quarter when I felt it should have been the 1st quarter. You can go down a statistical rabbit hole and manipulate stats to try and make a player look better or worse than they are playing. Clearly, I went down that rabbit hole on Stafford with his W/L record against good/great defense, his stats against those defenses, quarter splits, etc. So I bought into the Stat Padford argument and peddled it myself. I still think there is some truth to the narrative.

What wasn't true in the end was the narrative that he couldn't get it done and couldn't elevate a team to playoff wins and a Super Bowl. He proved all of us haters to be fools just one year removed from the Lions.

[Jason_R]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

…Stafford's second most productive quarter was the 4th quarter when I felt it should have been the 1st quarter.

Did you ever rank your preference for quarters by most productive to least productive, and tell Stafford? How else would he have known what his second most productive quarter should have been?

[Motown Bombers]

I thought the fact that in 2019 the Lions were 3-4-1 with Stafford and 0-8 without him debunked this Stafford nonsense. 

[RandyMarsh]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

I thought the fact that in 2019 the Lions were 3-4-1 with Stafford and 0-8 without him debunked this Stafford nonsense. 

Yes, this was something Id try conveying to people on Twitter that were skeptical of Staff when the Rams traded for him. 

Yes we were just Mediocre to average with him but without him we were arguably the worst team in nfl history. So he showed that he made a big positive difference. 

If you take a team that would be say a 7 win team without you to an 11 win team with you you're viewed in this great light but if you take a 2 or 3 win team to 7 or 8 wins like Stafford you get dismissed even though you brought equal to more wins extra by being there.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

4 hours ago, Jason_R said:

Did you ever rank your preference for quarters by most productive to least productive, and tell Stafford? How else would he have known what his second most productive quarter should have been?

I must have lost his number in my contacts. The reason I cared about quarter splits is because it frequently felt like we got off to a slow start in the 1st quarter and had to play from behind, hence all the 4th quarter comebacks or stat padding some of us accused him of.

[Jason_R]

It is easy for an offense to get off to a slow start if they have a weak OL, weak RBs, but insist they need to establish the run. And it’s easy to for a team to fall behind and need heroic comebacks if they have a lousy defense. 

I’m sure Stat Padford would like to have started padding his stats in the first quarter. 

[Motown Bombers]

Doesn't play well against good teams. 

 

[buddha]

giants cut james bradberry.  interested?

[Hongbit]

Schedule comes out on Thursday.   The past 2 seasons, the schedules had been front loaded and never really gave them any chance.  I’m really hoping for 2 and wishfully 3 very winnable games in the first 6.   Lots of choices like Jax, Seattle, Washington, Chicago at home.  NYG, NYJ, Carolina road.   

Edited May 10, 2022 by Hongbit

[MichiganCardinal]

Leaks are leaking. All unconfirmed.