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Lions 2022 Offseason Thread


TP_Fan

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I'm not worried about it at this point, there are a half dozen or so QBs that look promising this coming draft and while that could change come draft time in most cases a position is seen as deep a year ahead of time it indeed does become deep at the time of the draft.  The 2021 draft was seen as deep and the Patriots got their guy at number 15 no reason to think that something similar couldn't happen this year with us.

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i'm not sure mac jones is elite, but point taken.

just as an aside, i think where those guys go organization-wise means almost as much as their talent.  all those players are talented, putting them in a good system is very important in bringing that talent out.

hopefully the lions become one of those organizations.

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ESPN put out their skill position rankings and the Lions came in at 17, fairly mediocre but considering they were ranked 31 last year that is a pretty big jump in the right direction. I think they could be top 10 by next year if St. Brown repeats his second half and Jameson Williams looks good whenever they decide to play him. 

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While a huge deal is made every April about how far superior QBs X and Y are, sometimes a Z too, and how you have to get one of those QBs or there is no point... seldom do those QBs actually turn into the best QBs in the NFL.

If we look at the top ten QBs (ranked arbitrarily and rather poorly IMO by Sports Illustrated)

1. Aaron Rodgers (1.24 in 2005, 2nd taken)

2. Patrick Mahomes (1.10 in 2017, 2nd taken)

3. Matt Stafford (1.1 in 2009, 1st taken)

4. Russell Wilson (3.75 in 2012, 5th taken)

5. Joe Burrow (1.1 in 2020, 1st taken)

6. Josh Allen (1.7 in 2018, 3rd taken)

7. DeShaun Watson (1.12 in 2017, 3rd taken)

8. Lamar Jackson (1.32 in 2018, 5th taken)

9. Dak Prescott (4.135 in 2016, 8th taken)

10. Justin Herbert (1.6 in 2020, 3rd taken)

Only two of them were taken in the top five of the draft, and they are also the only two who were the first QB taken (both at 1.1). More than half of them were the 3rd QB taken off the board or later.

If we extend this to all QBs in the NFL currently, the others still starting in the NFL who were taken in the top five are Matt Ryan, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz... A group with many flaws.

My point in all this being, if your scouts are good, you'll find your guy without a top five pick.

 

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45 minutes ago, buddha said:

just as an aside, i think where those guys go organization-wise means almost as much as their talent.  all those players are talented, putting them in a good system is very important in bringing that talent out.

hopefully the lions become one of those organizations.

I think this is their plan, and it's a good one. You can put a great QB in a bad organization and flounder in mediocrity for a decade. Not that the Lions would ever do that. You can also trade the farm to draft a "franchise QB" at #11 and dismantle the team around him the following offseason to destine him to failure. Division rivals are welcomed to do this.

Or, you can build up a team for success and then insert your guy and watch him soar. See Mahomes and Rodgers.

I don't think Mac Jones will be better than TLaw in five years. He sure was set up better last year though, and look what happened.

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10 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I wasn't necessarily on or off the Murray wagon. I do think Murray is a talented QB, but that contracting looks like it could be an albatross if the cap doesn't rise fast enough and Murray doesn't play at an elite level. I'm still waiting to see, with little hope, what Goff can bring us this year and if Campbell and Ben Johnson can bring out his best game. If not, we've got the draft capital needed to possibly make a move up the draft ladder and go and get one of Stroud, Young, Richardson, whomever is at the top-tier of the QB class.

The cap will rise quickly (NFL is always raking in insane amounts of revenue) so this contract will probably be close to middle of the road halfway through.

Regardless, It's a big overpayment right now but you have to pay QBs with franchise potential because as we know all too well, it's not so easy to find those guys. When the Lions paid Stafford, who at the time was the highest paid QB in the league, he had a ton of question marks surrounding him too but just like Arizona, the Lions had no choice but to pay the man. Personally, I'm not a fan of Murray and think he lacks the mentality to be great but Arizona had to pony up to keep him.

Edited by NYLion
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5 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm not worried about it at this point, there are a half dozen or so QBs that look promising this coming draft and while that could change come draft time in most cases a position is seen as deep a year ahead of time it indeed does become deep at the time of the draft.  The 2021 draft was seen as deep and the Patriots got their guy at number 15 no reason to think that something similar couldn't happen this year with us.

If Goff isn't the guy, the Lions will be in position to draft one of the top QBs anyway. If the Lions win some games in spite of Goff (highly doubtful since they're not strong enough yet to get away with average QB play) and are drafting outside of the top 10, they have the extra 1st and can just package an additional to 1st to move up to get their guy. Either way, they can draft one of the top QBs in this draft if they really want/need one or even stand pat and let one fall to them like the Patriots, in your example.

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It’s a lose-lose prospect for the Cardinals. Do you let your potential franchise QB hit the open market, where he has the potential to enrage you for close to two decades?

Or do you overpay with the very real possible he’s the diva he’s shown flashes of, or continues to get hurt?

I think they made the right choice. Easier to dump in two years and pay the price than un-ring a release if he turns out to be the franchise QB he’s shown flashes of being.

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I see Goff reaching a level this year where you don't have to replace him, but you'd like a better QB. They can win but the rest of the team needs to be very good. And they are not quite there yet, but close.

So they can go the San Francisco route and trade for one of the top QB's in 23 draft and keep Goff around until the new QB is ready. If they do this they can restructure Goff's contract as well. Or they can trade for veteran and dump Goff.

Both are scenarios are a matter of opportunity, it will just depend on if they like a guy and can work out a deal.

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i think the offense will be decent this year but the defense will still be pretty bad.  teams are gonna whup up on the lions linebackers and corners.

they still need one more draft and maybe a good free agent to beef up the back 7.

if they keep both their first rounders next year, i see CB and QB in their future.  

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you draft a qb this year so he's ready to take over for goff in 2 years.  that's the ideal situation.  you dont want to draft a rookie the year goff leaves, that puts a lot of pressure on your rookie and will probably result in a lost season (unless we suddenly turn into the pats).

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Goff is under contract through 2024. He's under contract for three more seasons. You can pass on a QB this draft, play Goff Next year, draft a QB, and still have Goff as the starter with the rookie ready to take over in year two. Meanwhile, Goff is still good enough to make the playoffs if you build the team around him. 

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The urgency Holmes will feel to find his next QB will depend on how Goff plays this year. If Goff is a top ten QB they can fill other holes and worry about the QB position when an opportunity presents itself. They are just as likely to target a veteran as they are to trade up in the draft.

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Goff was good enough to build a team around to get to the playoffs and win.  He may still be good enough to do this again but he needs to play better.   We have no idea what he’s going to bring this year.  The nice thing is the Lions have options either way.   They aren’t locked into him and can dump him easily if it goes poorly this year.   Goff’s play will determine the next move at QB and when they pull the trigger. 

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i also remember people - including myself - saying it was ok to pass on a qb two years ago because the lions will be drafting high the next year and can just draft a qb then.

except last year's qb class turned out to be not that great.

the lions need talent.  they need a talent upgrade at the most important position in football.  if they have the opportunity to get one this year when they have two first round picks, then i think they should do it.  but i dont know what the draft classes in the future will look like, but it is unlikely the lions will have multiple first rounders to trade to move up in those drafts (which is preferable to dealing from your own future first round stash).

seems to me that this year would be a good year to try to get one if they can and the price to move up isnt too high.  but like i said before, it is likely that most of the teams at the top of the draft will want qbs, the lions may be in a position where they cant get a qb prospect they like because they are picking too low.

unless you want to pay a king's ransom to the bears to move up for their #1 pick...which is going to be top 3 almost for sure.

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