Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 10 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I don't think the last place team is necessarily in more need of help than teams a few spots ahead of them. Maybe the last place has been "tanking" for five years and already got some high picks. Maybe the team five spots ahead of them just got old and this is their first bad year. I would say that the latter team was more in need of draft pick help. That's a huge distortion of the function of a draft for a "maybe", all to provide something that will have no impact on behavior and fail to address any real issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Longgone said: It's not "essential" in basketball! It hasn't changed behavior one iota, nor has it had the slightest impact in the NHL. It is an irrational response to a mythical problem. It's all perception, not reality. Its a great tool for manipulating events though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 29 minutes ago, Longgone said: It's not "essential" in basketball! It hasn't changed behavior one iota, nor has it had the slightest impact in the NHL. It is an irrational response to a mythical problem. It's all perception, not reality. "Essential" might not have been the right word to use there for basketball. But I think tanking in basketball is more rampant than in baseball. The disparity in between teams in basketball is greater than in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Longgone said: That's a huge distortion of the function of a draft for a "maybe", all to provide something that will have no impact on behavior and fail to address any real issues. The players seem to think it will make a difference. They are the ones who wanted it. I just like it based on principle. Edited February 11, 2022 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Tanking for a basketball pick makes sense. Tanking for a baseball pick is stupid. That's why no one does it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: The players seem to think it will make a difference. They are the ones who wanted it. I just like it based on principle. Of course! They want more teams spending more money. No surprise there. Edited February 11, 2022 by Longgone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 hours ago, casimir said: "Essential" might not have been the right word to use there for basketball. But I think tanking in basketball is more rampant than in baseball. The disparity in between teams in basketball is greater than in baseball. Tanking is a perception, not a reality. Teams are going to rebuild, and to do so, they need to be able to trade present assets for future ones. You can dislike the losing that results from that, but it is a legitimate strategy, not to mention a lottery has absolutely no impact on the behavior, except to distort the function of the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: The players seem to think it will make a difference. They are the ones who wanted it. I just like it based on principle. The only principle you state is you don't want to reward incompetence, but there isn't one iota of evidence that finishing last is due to incompetence. All you know is that there is a competitive imbalance. Someone is always going to be on the bottom. Is that always incompetence? Not by a long shot. And yes, it can take five years or more to correct a competitive imbalance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, Longgone said: Of course! They want more teams spending more money. No surprise there. Wouldn't the teams that lost the lottery be paying a little less according to the slots? It seems like it would be a wash financially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, Longgone said: The only principle you state is you don't want to reward incompetence, but there isn't one iota of evidence that finishing last is due to incompetence. All you know is that there is a competitive imbalance. Someone is always going to be on the bottom. Is that always incompetence? Not by a long shot. And yes, it can take five years or more to correct a competitive imbalance. When you finish last in pro sports, you are a loser. You failed. If it's just one year, then OK. If you finish last five straight years, you are a big time loser and shouldn't be rewarded year after year. That, to me, is incompetence. Let some of the other re-building teams get a shot. Giving out rewards to the team that finished last goes against the nature of pro sports competition. We can eliminate that silliness and still help bad teams become more competitive with a lottery containing a limited number of bad teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 Granting that the practical effect of a lottery given the uncertainty with baseball draft picks is questionable, in theory if you make rebuilding more difficult, maybe teams in the position that the Tigers were in circa 2015 will think a little harder about their willingness to mortgage the future for one more try at the brass ring. IMO that is what puts teams a the kind of really deep hole the Tigers got into and those decisions were actually made long before the team was bad and trying to dig out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: When you finish last in pro sports, you are a loser. You failed. If it's just one year, then OK. If you finish last five straight years, you are a big time loser and shouldn't be rewarded year after year. That, to me, is incompetence. Let some of the other re-building teams get a shot. Giving out rewards to the team that finished last goes against the nature of pro sports competition. We can eliminate that silliness and still help bad teams become more competitive with a lottery containing a limited number of bad teams. This seems like a non sequitur, the lottery doesn't address either incompetence or five straight years of losing. There are two facts: 1. Lotteries don't do anything to impact team behavior. 2. They unnecessarily distort the true function of a draft, which is to allow weaker to become more competitive, and create long term parity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Longgone said: This seems like a non sequitur, the lottery doesn't address either incompetence or five straight years of losing. There are two facts: 1. Lotteries don't do anything to impact team behavior. 2. They unnecessarily distort the true function of a draft, which is to allow weaker to become more competitive, and create long term parity. I think a lottery still allows weaker teams to become more competitive. I don't see how it distorts anything. You are still helping bad teams get better. You just aren't rewarding professional teams for finishing last which seems absurd to me. I like it. It's not a big deal to me, but I like it as a fan. And I don't think teams being bad is solely a function of tyrying to re-build. A lot of it is trying to save money and sometimes it is incompetence. I do agree that the lottery probably won't do much to change behavior of teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: ... I don't see how it distorts anything... If you've changed the draft order for teams, that began in order of a mathematical record, in favor of a random "lottery"... The draft order has inherently been distorted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 By definition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 43 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: If you've changed the draft order for teams, that began in order of a mathematical record, in favor of a random "lottery"... The draft order has inherently been distorted. But not the function of the draft. You're still helping the bad teams get better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: But not the function of the draft. You're still helping the bad teams get better. You are allowing a better, more competitive team to draft ahead of a weaker team. That is not the purpose of a draft. And you are doing it for no productive reason. If you buy the premise that won/loss record is indicative of ability, then artificially altering that hierarchy is a corruption of intent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, Longgone said: You are allowing a better, more competitive team to draft ahead of a weaker team. That is not the purpose of a draft. And you are doing it for no productive reason. If you buy the premise that won/loss record is indicative of ability, then artificially altering that hierarchy is a corruption of intent. Won/loss record is a measure of team strength in a particular year. It is not a measure of organizational strength or an indication of how much a team needs help. A team that is stacked with prospects after four years of losing is not more in need of help than another bad team with a barren farm system having it's first bad year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Won/loss record is a measure of team strength in a particular year. It is not a measure of organizational strength or an indication of how much a team needs help. A team that is stacked with prospects after four years of losing is not more in need of help than another bad team with a barren farm system having it's first bad year. That will come out in the wash, over time, as intended, if you don't screw things up with a lottery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, Longgone said: That will come out in the wash, over time, as intended, if you don't screw things up with a lottery. I really doubt that a small lottery is going to screw anything up. The level parity that you guys want will be the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 There are varying levels of competence in mlb, of course there are. Teams are going to have varying budget constraints in the current environment. However, it it no secret that the Yankees and Dodgers excellence in scouting and player development year after year is in no small measure due to their huge revenue differential compared to other teams, and their ability to outbid and outspend other teams in those areas. Sure, a Tampa Bay has found some success, but is continually losing talent to deeper pockets. With revenues so lopsided, the draft is one way to maintain parity. Leave it alone. All teams want to win, all gms, scouting directors, owners, players, etc., want to win. The idea that some teams are just cheap, greedy, or just plain incompetent, and should be punished for it, is a fallacy, just frustration speaking. Baseball has some issues to address, but the draft isnt one of them, and a lottery isn't going to address any of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I really doubt that a small lottery is going to screw anything up. The level parity that you guys want will be the same You are saying keeping the lottery small won't disrupt the draft too much. Why disrupt it at all? Why draw the line at 8, why not 12, or 20? Where's the logical rationale? What if these exact same 8 teams were the only teams in the mlb, would you still say the differential in records and talent is negligible and there should be a lottery for draft order? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Longgone said: You are saying keeping the lottery small won't disrupt the draft too much. Why disrupt it at all? Why draw the line at 8, why not 12, or 20? Where's the logical rationale? What if these exact same 8 teams were the only teams in the mlb, would you still say the differential in records and talent is negligible and there should be a lottery for draft order? I drew the line at 8 teams because I guessed there are usually about that many teams that are bad and in need of help. It could even be varying amounts of teams such as every team with less than 70 wins. My other idea was for the draft order to be based on team records at July 31 which would eliminate any concern about teams trying to finish with the worst record. I know you said that doesn't happen, but I don't think it's out of the question that is has crossed the minds of front offices. It certainly has crossed the minds of fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I drew the line at 8 teams because I guessed there are usually about that many teams that are bad and in need of help. It could even be varying amounts of teams such as every team with less than 70 wins. My other idea was for the draft order to be based on team records at July 31 which would eliminate any concern about teams trying to finish with the worst record. I know you said that doesn't happen, but I don't think it's out of the question that is has crossed the minds of front offices. It certainly has crossed the minds of fans. The second paragraph is fine, removes the doubt and temptation, although you are still reacting to perception, not any unidentifiable facts, which i believe is always misguided. the first paragraph is really admitting that you are being subjective, and that there is really no factual basis for it, just feelings and assumptions. That's not a good reason to change a fundamental component of talent distribution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I always assumed one of the main reasons for the draft (which started before the players had any power) was to cut costs by eliminating competition between teams for players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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