Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[gehringer_2]

36 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I do think Al Avila deserves a little bit of credit for making some good hires in their player development in the year prior to his firing... we can probably infer that the improved play/stock of a few guys may be partially their doing.

But it was way too little and way too late. And for that, among many other things, his bus ticket out of town was well earned.

Yeah - I think too little, too late is pretty much Al's epitaph. I think directionally his ideas were right, he just never got far enough on enough of them.

[1984Echoes]

47 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

... But it was way too little and way too late. And for that, among many other things...

That was the conclusion I belatedly came to early last summer...

Even if I like some of these guys in the minors, like Tenacious...

Bottom line: too little, too late, amongst other shortcomings.

[1984Echoes]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yeah - I think too little, too late is pretty much Al's epitaph. I think directionally his ideas were right, he just never got far enough on enough of them.

+1

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

True, but I mostly excluded the first rounders, who for all intents and purposes are still raw (Mize, Tork. Greene, Manning).

My only point is if we’re truly the worst in the majors, it doesn’t seem that bad to me.

It might not seem bad.  But the results are pretty plain to see and hard to argue against.

We should have seen contributions in the majors and depth at the high minors by now.  That isn’t the case.  Avila has had plenty of time.  The organization isn’t where it needs to be.  How many more seasons of bottom 5 records does this team need to go through before the farm system churns out some quality?  It takes more than drafting high to build from within.  It didn’t happen.

We can hope all we want with the prospects in place.  But at some point, the hope needs to be replaced with results at the major league level.  Until then, the organization doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt.  It hasn’t earned it.

[Tenacious D]

I don't think anyone would disagree that Avila didn't do a great job.  It's why he is out of the job.  I just don't think it's nearly as dire.  The only guy out of all of the high picks still in the org that I have doubts about is Tork, and he could still be very good.  Given the success rate with TJ surgery, I'm bullish that both Turnbull and Mize will be able to make it back. Greene should still turn out good.  If Faedo ends up a middle reliever, that's kind of a bummer for a 1st rounder, but if he can be a productive major leaguer, there are plenty of 1st rounders that never pan out.

I feel uncomfortable being the glass is half-full guy and resent all of you for making me do it.

[casimir]

29 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I feel uncomfortable being the glass is half-full guy and resent all of you for making me do it.

84Lives needs a break.  We thought you could handle it for a short bit.

[Scottwood]

The Tigers system is awful.  Pretty much every system has depth that could break through if things break right and the Tigers are no different in that regard.  As of now, the Tigers don't really have any top 50 or higher talent and so they will do poorly on any ranking.  That will change a bit at the end of the year with the addition of the #3 draft pick, but still a long way to go. 

I think the international system's lack of success is mostly tied to the Illitch family, though.  I don't think any organization invests less in player development for international prospects than the Tigers have done. Their facilities are a total joke and they don't even own them.  I'm hoping Harris can get Illitch to change on that front.  It is about 28% of the player pool and the Tigers have been playing with one arm behind their back for a long time.

In terms of Avila, I had disliked him for a long time, but the day they chose Jobe over Mayer and Lawlar broke me. Jobe is a decent prospect too and could pan out, but it is still an indefensible pick.  They didn't even save money on the pick as Jobe signed for almost full slot value and for more than Mayer and Lawlar signed for with their respective clubs.

In happier news, at least Jack Morris doesn't get paid anymore to announce for the team.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Scottwood

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yeah - I think too little, too late is pretty much Al's epitaph. I think directionally his ideas were right, he just never got far enough on enough of them.

He may have been right on some things—his lip service to analytics was a step forward from nothing, even if the implementation was half-assed for whatever reason—but Avila’s ideas about the type of hitting to build the organization on were frightfully wrong.

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I will laugh if Harris builds a team loaded with Avila current and future Major Leaguers that he develops into an actual contending team.

I'm ready and waiting for some serious LOL's coming up soon...

But right now...

I'm just confused.

I think you might have a laugh. As some have suggested, it’s not like Avila failed on every single thing he ever did bar none. They made some pretty good picks—they just didn’t know how to develop them into winners using the old school ways, in a game that long ago moved on to the new school. I mentioned John Schreiber just the other day as an example of having a talent in the fold that they simply didn’t know what to do with, so they let him go for nothing. But now that a new system run by new bosses and people is in place, I think we need to give them at least two years to see the fruits start to sprout.

It’s so interesting how people who agree that the coaching we had up and down the system, especially on the hitting side, was horrific, yet still blame the players for failing under it. I think that’s short-sighted. I would bet a lot of those guys are going to rebound and, to your point, we’ll see signings and draftings under the Avila regime pay off more than that regime could figure out how to elicit.

Edited February 3, 2023 by chasfh

[1984Echoes]

Eloquently stated.

And that's what we're all hoping for...

[RatkoVarda]

FG has Baltimore's top 38 prospects list out. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-38-prospects-2023/

O's have zoomed past the Tigers at both the major and minor league levels.

[chasfh]

30 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

FG has Baltimore's top 38 prospects list out. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-38-prospects-2023/

O's have zoomed past the Tigers at both the major and minor league levels.

In part because the guys in charge of the rebuild were not the same guys who ran the organization into the rocks in the first place.

[mtutiger]

Kiley McDaniel has the Tigers at 21st Organizationally...

If you take the average of Law/McDaniel, that's probably where they should fall imo. Around 26

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

FG has Baltimore's top 38 prospects list out. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-38-prospects-2023/

O's have zoomed past the Tigers at both the major and minor league levels.

this will be an interesting comparison--both org's bottomed out around the same time and have had high draft picks over the last handful of drafts.  

[Shinzaki]

Al Avila was like a bad salesman...closed a few deals, but burned way too many leads to be successful

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

He may have been right on some things—his lip service to analytics was a step forward from nothing, even if the implementation was half-assed for whatever reason—but Avila’s ideas about the type of hitting to build the organization on were frightfully wrong.

When he walked in the door he gave lip service to the same low walk/control the zone ideas Harris has repeated. He just never executed a strategy to get there. And I'm still very suspicious that the implementation of hitting advice in the Tiger clubhouse last year was doing more harm to hitters than good. 

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

When he walked in the door he gave lip service to the same low walk/control the zone ideas Harris has repeated. He just never executed a strategy to get there. And I'm still very suspicious that the implementation of hitting advice in the Tiger clubhouse last year was doing more harm to hitters than good. 

ok

[buddha]

9 hours ago, Scottwood said:

The Tigers system is awful.  Pretty much every system has depth that could break through if things break right and the Tigers are no different in that regard.  As of now, the Tigers don't really have any top 50 or higher talent and so they will do poorly on any ranking.  That will change a bit at the end of the year with the addition of the #3 draft pick, but still a long way to go. 

I think the international system's lack of success is mostly tied to the Illitch family, though.  I don't think any organization invests less in player development for international prospects than the Tigers have done. Their facilities are a total joke and they don't even own them.  I'm hoping Harris can get Illitch to change on that front.  It is about 28% of the player pool and the Tigers have been playing with one arm behind their back for a long time.

In terms of Avila, I had disliked him for a long time, but the day they chose Jobe over Mayer and Lawlar broke me. Jobe is a decent prospect too and could pan out, but it is still an indefensible pick.  They didn't even save money on the pick as Jobe signed for almost full slot value and for more than Mayer and Lawlar signed for with their respective clubs.

In happier news, at least Jack Morris doesn't get paid anymore to announce for the team.

al discovered "spin rate" and decided jobe was the second coming of jacob degrom.  

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

ok

I look at it this way - you have a certain probability in any season of a guy slumping, you have a certain probability in a given year that a guy excels. When a whole team slumps and no-one excels, you are witnessing an outcome which is the product of individual probabilities all below 50%, or IOW a net low probability event; OR  there is an unknown forcing function driving the result. If you are going to take a statistics based approach to baseball, you shouldn't ignore what probability is trying to tell you.

[chasfh]

33 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I look at it this way - you have a certain probability in any season of a guy slumping, you have a certain probability in a given year that a guy excels. When a whole team slumps and no-one excels, you are witnessing an outcome which is the product of individual probabilities all below 50%, or IOW a net low probability event; OR  there is an unknown forcing function driving the result. If you are going to take a statistics based approach to baseball, you shouldn't ignore what probability is trying to tell you.

Based on your prior post, in which you say you are very suspicious that the implementation of hitting advice in the Tiger clubhouse last year was doing more harm to hitters than good, I assume you subscribe to the individual probabilities all below 50% hypothesis, and not to the unknown forcing function hypothesis. Am I reading you correctly?

[RandyMarsh]

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN just came out with his system rankings and he has us at.21(13 last year) The abridged breakdown from him was that we have a lot of potential solid contributors in the system but few if any higher end guys. 

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN just came out with his system rankings and he has us at.21(13 last year) The abridged breakdown from him was that we have a lot of potential solid contributors in the system but few if any higher end guys. 

What's funny is that the diagnosis really isn't that different between Law and McDaniel, but the ranking is. I suspect he may take a higher view of a few of their prospects (probably Colt Keith, since he's the only analyst who has him as a Top 100 guy) than Law does.

[gehringer_2]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

Based on your prior post, in which you say you are very suspicious that the implementation of hitting advice in the Tiger clubhouse last year was doing more harm to hitters than good, I assume you subscribe to the individual probabilities all below 50% hypothesis, and not to the unknown forcing function hypothesis. Am I reading you correctly?

What I fear is that is has been the Tiger's team management actions are the 'unknown' forcing function. Actually I would have been more accurate to maybe use 'exogenous' rather than 'unknown' in the earlier post - because I meant to indicate something coming at the hitters from the 'outside' of their own initiative that was depressing their ability to produce. Not to get any BVDs too bunched, it's just a fear. And at this point, if they come out of the gate hitting poorly again, it doesn't necessarily support or refute the theory since it looks like it's going to be mostly the same cast.

[1984Echoes]

7 hours ago, buddha said:

al discovered "spin rate" and decided jobe was the second coming of jacob degrom.  

That sounds about correct.

[Jim Cowan]

I always thought that Al Avila knew exactly what to do, and tried to do it, but was terrible at actually doing it.