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Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)


gehringer_2

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2 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Another day, another list this time we have 4 in the top 100 albeit in the later half.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/79861/2023-prospects-the-top-101/

Jung 86, Flores 87, Jobe 91, Keith 98

In the grand scheme of things, despite the difference between BA and BP lists, it's possible the lists may not even be that different and Flores/Jung/Keith might be just outside of BA's list.

Part of why it is pointless to get hung up on the total within the Top 100 of any list... if a prospect is ranked 99 and another is ranked 104, is the difference really that big?

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My amateurish guess is that the way to envision prospects and their future values is more along the shape of a triangle such that the upper prospects are few and far between and as you descend from one tier to the next, the population of similarly skilled players expands.  So, just for grins, the top 3-5 prospects are a tier, then you've got another dozen that are about the same, then another 25 that make up the next group, and on and on.  But a lot of folks like to get focused on cardinal ordering rather than relative grouping.

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On 1/20/2023 at 1:19 PM, mtutiger said:

I dont know if Wenceel ultimately ends up an everyday ML player or not, but really you can't ask much more from the new player development folks (including those hired under Avila) than to salvage some value out of the previous regime's players.

You have to imagine imagine Perez' and Lipcius' K good rates have the attention of the new regime.

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And Cam Collier at 17. I'm sure Avila and Co. went with Jung because he was closer to the majors. Collier was a HS guy and Jung was 21 when drafted. 

Collier was rated above Jung prior to the draft, although it was fairly close. Just another example IMO of them passing on a higher ceiling guy because they didn't want to wait. Although giver their track record of of developing hitters they probably factored that in.

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I was perusing Keith Law's chat and saw these 3 comments in a row. I think it provides context on how ridiculous fan bases are and how subjective some of the numbers are. I really only enjoy them in the offseason because honestly I can only handle discussion on why we didn't bring up Trayce Thompson for so long.  That being said I love that everyone thinks Keith Law hates their team.

image.png.28c2422b73f5b3a058f12b5fb1b26998.png

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38 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I was perusing Keith Law's chat and saw these 3 comments in a row. I think it provides context on how ridiculous fan bases are and how subjective some of the numbers are. I really only enjoy them in the offseason because honestly I can only handle discussion on why we didn't bring up Trayce Thompson for so long.  That being said I love that everyone thinks Keith Law hates their team.

image.png.28c2422b73f5b3a058f12b5fb1b26998.png

I thought it was interesting that the Braves, Astros and Blue Jays (all generally considered better systems than the lowly Tigers) all have less guys on Law's list.

Once again proving the limited utility of Top 100 lists.

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1 hour ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I was perusing Keith Law's chat and saw these 3 comments in a row. I think it provides context on how ridiculous fan bases are and how subjective some of the numbers are. I really only enjoy them in the offseason because honestly I can only handle discussion on why we didn't bring up Trayce Thompson for so long.  That being said I love that everyone thinks Keith Law hates their team.

I have not read the whole article but was surprised by how often positive Law was about lots of guys, sometime gushing about their potential. Always best to bet against guys because most of them will fail/flail.

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2 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

He's only 23.  Seems like he's been around forever.  

Do you think Al Avilla is calling Dave Dombrowski and saying "Hey Dave, did you see, 4 of mine are on the list, imagine what I could do for the Phillies !"

Avila has his mind on other things tonight.

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