Will Tigers Pony up for Skubal

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Well, I just posted this in the draft thread, but I know not everyone looks for little stuff. Do you all think the Tigers will pay Skubes? I found an article from Feb from SI: https://www.si.com/mlb/tigers/news/detroit-tigers-ace-projected-sign-seven-year-188-million-extension but not much else. With him being a Boras guy and we all know Boras likes to do the open market, do you think a deal gets done? 

Nightmare scenario, no, and we chase the WS this year and next. Skubal then walks and we get a comp pick. That could set the franchise back a loooooong time if we don't trade him if he's not signing an extension. Look at the Angels. They still haven't recovered from losing Ohtani for nothing. Will we make the same mistake?

Personally I hope the Tigers do extend him. 7 Years, 200 Mill would be a great deal. Something tells me he may want something like 10/290 though or something rediculous. Thoughts?

[oblong]

I believe they are willing to but will not pay someone until they have to.  They won't bid against themselves.  A lot can happen in 2 seasons.  I don't think they will be rash about it or consider their position as contenders and use a window as justification be rash.  They are confident in their ability to develop good pitchers and will weigh that.  They will be competitive in the offer but the days of over paying to "keep our guys" like Victor and Cabrera are over.  Orgs will do well to not be sentimental.

If he walks he walks.

 

[Motor City Sonics]

7 years at $188 would be a bargain and there is no way that Boras is ever accepting that.   26 mil a year?   NO WAY.

I think it's probably closer to 8 years, $280 - and that would be the hometown discount.   He's not signing for less than $35 million a year. 

8/280 would be a great and and substantial and realistic offer for the Tigers. 

But be prepared for Steve Cohen to step up and offer 10 for 550 or something insane like that,  especially if the Mets don't win the series in 25 or 26.   

If we don't win it, you should root for the Mets to win it because it might possibly stop Cohen from stepping in and doing something you absolutely can't do.   The money doesn't mean anything to Cohen.   He's like Mr. I was in the mid 2000s.  

[Motor City Sonics]

We're hoping that by the time Skubal is ready for Free Agency, that Jobe is the new ace.   I think that's why they brought him up now - to learn now so by 2027 when Meadows, Carpenter, Greene and Tork are in their prime and McGonigle, Max Clark, Liranzo are coming up, they're won't need a Skubal quite as much. 

But, I just have a strong feeling that we won't even have a season in 2027.   This upcoming CBA is going to be a war.  

[SoCalTiger]

7 minutes ago, oblong said:

I believe they are willing to but will not pay someone until they have to.  They won't bid against themselves.  A lot can happen in 2 seasons.  I don't think they will be rash about it or consider their position as contenders and use a window as justification be rash.  They are confident in their ability to develop good pitchers and will weigh that.  They will be competitive in the offer but the days of over paying to "keep our guys" like Victor and Cabrera are over.  Orgs will do well to not be sentimental.

If he walks he walks.

 

I think this is spot on. And I agree with this philosophy. I love Skubal..I will be in Anaheim rooting for him Friday as it was the easiest of the four games to choose. Having said that losing him is not a poison pill. 

[1776]

17 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

But, I just have a strong feeling that we won't even have a season in 2027.   This upcoming CBA is going to be a war.  

This is where I am. Wouldn’t surprise me if the season is lost…or worse yet, turns into a replay of the 2020 schedule to make up for lost games if they do settle well into the summer. It’s going to be a mess. 
 

I had asked a question here a month or so back regarding the minor leagues should MLB shut down. Apparently, the way the agreement is constructed, with MiLB being union as well now, MiLB will play regardless of a MLB shutdown. 
With that, the summer won’t be nearly as painful.

Edited Thursday at 03:53 PM by 1776

[Tenacious D]

Yes.  But he’ll still test free agency.

[RatkoVarda]

the Tigers will make a legit offer (some may even call it a serious offer) but they can and likely will be outbid by other teams, like the Mets.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

I wonder if this off season, we float trading him. We should be able to get two Top 50 prospects for him plus others. If one of those is a pitcher, then why not? I get I'm in the minority, but I think we could reload some premium talent. Maybe we focus on a pitching prospect in return. Something like to the Giants for Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, and Josuar De Jesus or Tibbs for him. Replace our pitching and give us good prospects too. I'm all for it. 

[4hzglory]

38 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I wonder if this off season, we float trading him. We should be able to get two Top 50 prospects for him plus others. If one of those is a pitcher, then why not? I get I'm in the minority, but I think we could reload some premium talent. Maybe we focus on a pitching prospect in return. Something like to the Giants for Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, and Josuar De Jesus or Tibbs for him. Replace our pitching and give us good prospects too. I'm all for it. 

Why not is because if we are expecting to compete for the playoffs/championship next year, we should be looking to keep/add players like Skubal rather than sell.  The difference between a comp pick (similar to McGonigle) and 2 top 50 prospects is worth it for 1 season of a top 5 pitcher in the game.

 

The Angels didn’t “not recover” from losing Ohtani for a comp pick, they weren’t good before that.  If we were in the position we were 2-4 years ago, yes trading Skubal would have made more sense.  Not when we are a playoff caliber team.

[papalawrence]

Only one year left for arbitration, then FA. Dodgers, Yankees or Phillies will offer him something like 8/350. He's not signing for less than 300+. If Garrit Cole signed a 9/324 contract 5 years ago at age 29, Skubal will top that. 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

8 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Why not is because if we are expecting to compete for the playoffs/championship next year, we should be looking to keep/add players like Skubal rather than sell.  The difference between a comp pick (similar to McGonigle) and 2 top 50 prospects is worth it for 1 season of a top 5 pitcher in the game.

 

The Angels didn’t “not recover” from losing Ohtani for a comp pick, they weren’t good before that.  If we were in the position we were 2-4 years ago, yes trading Skubal would have made more sense.  Not when we are a playoff caliber team.

Teams were offering the Angels their top 2 if not Top 3 prospects for 1/2 a season of Ohtani. Now I understand its not the same but I'm just saying, if we're gonna lose him, I'd rather lose him for 1/2 a season an gain 5 years of control over two or three stud prospects. I'll take my chances for 10-15 starts especially of Jobe and Mize are humming. Flaherty is doin great as well. Those three could anchor a rotation in the playoffs I think. 

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

... I'll take my chances for 10-15 starts ...

You win playoffs and World Series by having pitchers give up less runs than the other team does.

Skubal and our BP gives us the best chance of doing that.

[Tiger337]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

You win playoffs and World Series by having pitchers give up less runs than the other team does.

Skubal and our BP gives us the best chance of doing that.

It could mean that your hitters scoring more runs than the other teams do!  

I do believe though that the way the playoffs are set up with extra days off, having a couple of elite starters is a bigger advantage than it is in the regular season.  

[RandyMarsh]

Starting pitchers aren't worth what they used to be, even as great as Skubal is he rarely goes more than 7 and will be under 200 innings a year.  Last year in 192 innings Skubal gave up 54 runs, a league average starter with a 4.00 ERA would have given up 84 so 30 runs over the course of the season. Definitely not insignificant but is it worth what Skubal will command in FA? Not to me it isn't, so keep him for the next 2 seasons and let somebody else overpay for his decline years. 

[papalawrence]

I have my doubts that Harris will ever give a huge, long-term deal. Such a small percentage turn into a positive for a team,  for pitchers or position players. A small handful of teams will go there. I would hate to see Skubal go, but am already mentally prepared for it to happen.

[chasfh]

Unless we have an anti-2024 and go something like 10-30 in the next 40 games, the chances we trade Skubal while we are in playoff contention are absolute zero, and that goes double if we are leading our division in July, and triple if we have the best record in the league. We are not the Al Avila Tigers anymore. We don’t have to scheme to get unproven birds in the bush when the bird we have in the hand now can help us win a ring this year. Good teams simply don’t trade away the top of their roster just as they start dominating their league, all because they might lose a guy two years from now. That thinking strikes me as some sort of trauma-induced anxiety.

You guys, I got the name of a good therapist for you … 😉

[chasfh]

As for signing Skubal long-term, I would rather sign him for four years and 188 million than seven years and 188 million. I’m more worried about carrying a gimpy, limpy mid- to late-30s ex-fireballer during his dotage than I am about paying an out-of-range AAV. I’ve long been more scared of the years than the money. Just look back in our own recent history and you can understand why.

Speaking of which, after Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell signing for $30MM+ AAVs this past offseason, I don’t think there’s much chance anyone signs Skubal for only 7/188 two winters from now.

[RandyMarsh]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

As for signing Skubal long-term, I would rather sign him for four years and 188 million than seven years and 188 million. I’m more worried about carrying a gimpy, limpy mid- to late-30s ex-fireballer during his dotage than I am about paying an out-of-range AAV. I’ve long been more scared of the years than the money. Just look back in our own recent history and you can understand why.

Speaking of which, after Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell signing for $30MM+ AAVs this past offseason, I don’t think there’s much chance anyone signs Skubal for only 7/188 two winters from now.

Like I said above, it just isn't worth it in this day and age. When even the elite guys are only throwing 100 pitches at most you're only looking at about 6 innings a start and about 180-190 innings a year. At those numbers the difference between an elite guy and average guy just isn't that much in terms of run differential.  Not nearly enough to justify the cost. 

 

[Tenacious D]

It will come down to the 2026 season—if we’re not in contention at that trade deadline, I suspect we’d move him when all options to resign him have been exhausted.  Even with an expiring contract, he’d command more in value than a comp pick would be worth.

 

[oblong]

Considering the state of the division and this team's makeup, if they aren't contending in 2026 in July then something happened.

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

... even the elite guys are only throwing 100 pitches at most you're only looking at about 6 innings a start and about 180-190 innings a year. At those numbers the difference between an elite guy and average guy just isn't that much in terms of run differential.  Not nearly enough to justify the cost. 

You're using the wrong metric.

 

The metric is not the Regular Season, in which you are pretty much correct. Not worth an insane cost for one pitcher.

The correct metric is the Playoffs and the World Series.

In the playoffs... and hopefully a few World Series...

do you want above average Mize plus above average Jobe plus average Joe Blow starting 3 games? That tells me "lose in the first round".

Or do you want Mize/ Jobe and Insane Ace Skubal in those 3 games? I'm talking about 2027-2030...

I'll pay the money to have Aces in the Playoffs instead of just Jacks.

I'm with Chas: 4 years, $160 Mill+. 

It's not the AAV, it's the excess years that get ya'.

 

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

You're using the wrong metric.

 

The metric is not the Regular Season, in which you are pretty much correct. Not worth an insane cost for one pitcher.

The correct metric is the Playoffs and the World Series.

In the playoffs... and hopefully a few World Series...

do you want above average Mize plus above average Jobe plus average Joe Blow starting 3 games? That tells me "lose in the first round".

Or do you want Mize/ Jobe and Insane Ace Skubal in those 3 games? I'm talking about 2027-2030...

I'll pay the money to have Aces in the Playoffs instead of just Jacks.

I'm with Chas: 4 years, $160 Mill+. 

It's not the AAV, it's the excess years that get ya'.

 

I'd rather have Skubal, but the playoffs are still largely a crapshoot.  Kershaw, the greatest pitcher of his era, didno do much in the playoffs.  Skubal lost the deciding game last year.  You do want to have whatever playoff advantage you can get though (and elite starting pitching is probably the best way to do that).  I like the four year $160 million idea.  I hope those kinds of contracts become more popular.  It's not the money that makes long-term contracts terrible.  It's the years.  

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Like I said above, it just isn't worth it in this day and age. When even the elite guys are only throwing 100 pitches at most you're only looking at about 6 innings a start and about 180-190 innings a year. At those numbers the difference between an elite guy and average guy just isn't that much in terms of run differential.  Not nearly enough to justify the cost. 

 

This makes sense as things stands. The main mitigating factor is whether Baseball will undertake any rules changes in an attempt to reestablish the primacy of starting pitchers. They are on record as hoping to do so.

[KL2]

5 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Like I said above, it just isn't worth it in this day and age. When even the elite guys are only throwing 100 pitches at most you're only looking at about 6 innings a start and about 180-190 innings a year. At those numbers the difference between an elite guy and average guy just isn't that much in terms of run differential.  Not nearly enough to justify the cost. 

 

But that's a huge difference. Your just pushing it off like nothing. Look at our rotation at the end of last year. Skubal and crap. The crap could hardly be counted on where as Skubal started the key games, saved the bullpen and gave the team a morale boost. A player at half the WAR isn't gonna do that. 

These aren't robot and just saying oh well its 30 fewer runs NBD is downplaying not only the human element of the game, but a good pitchers actual value.