4/26 7:40 Tigers @ Twins

[chasfh]

lol woba and fip are "older stats"!

[SoCalTiger]

outfield defense is the teams biggest weakness. We are average to below average in every spot. And Hill is not a regular nor as good as his highlight plays suggest. Haase said the ball was slippery. I wish he would have said " I never should have thrown to third with the runner STANDING on the bag". His play was at second but he did not know Soto was covering home. But it all started with 8 straight balls by Soto which is inviting disaster.

[Tiger337]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

lol woba and fip are "older stats"!

If they are in my book, then they are old stats!

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If they are in my book, then they are old stats!

I like the Statcast stats a lot. They are designed to take into account quality of contact and placement of batted balls, with their attendant likelihood of falling in safely, to help us understand how well a player is doing in the thing they are supposed to be: driving the ball hard if they're hitting, and inducing soft contact if they're pitching. There's really nothing else hitters and pitchers can actually try to do. Outside of bunting for hits, or doing swinging bunts, batters really can't "try" to get base hits other than hitting the ball hard and hoping you did it right so it will fall in.

Granted, these are forward-looking metrics. Soto's stats said he was doing great: 1-0, 3 saves in five appearances, 1.59 ERA. But his Statcast card indicated that this was a mirage, and in this particular case, we happened to see the result Statcast forecasted versus his traditional stats.

Statcast's intention is not to tell us how a batter did in terms of slash lines or outcomes, but rather what we can likely expect the batter to do in future at bats, under the reasonable assumption that if they've been hitting the ball hard and bad-lucking into outs, they can probably expect more hits to fall in if they keep hitting the ball hard like that. Yes, that's an assumption, and sure, "ass you me" can always apply. But it's a better assumption that the batter continue to hit the ball hard as his track record has indicated than it is to assume that a batter's quality of contact is a completely random circumstance, or worse, that a batter is going to suddenly change how hard he's hitting the ball because he's due.

Ironically, FIP is very much also a process-oriented stat like the Statcast stats are, in its attempts to weed out the luck of outcomes from balls in play and boil it down to what a pitcher''s ERA "should be" based on the things he can better control: strikeouts, walks, HBPs, homers. In this way, FIP is quite related to Statcast stats. wOBA on the other hand is very outcome-oriented and has nothing to do with quality of contact.

[mtutiger]

44 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

On the reliever discussion, for arguments sake, let's say that Fulmer is actually the closer and given the 9th in last night's game.

What do you do with Soto? Do you send him out there in the 8th to protect the one run lead? Would he have been any better or more reliable in one's view pitching in the 8th rather than the 9th? Do you bump Lange up to the set up man and drop Soto down to the 7th inning? Should he just not come in at all and have someone like Barnes or Vest pitch? Should they have stuck Chafin in there on his first day back? Where do you draw the line?

That's sort of the problem with having a debate about Soto in the closer role within the context of last night's game.... at the end of the day, even if you rearrange the deck chairs, he's still one of your leverage guys and is going to have to come in during leverage situations. You can't just hide him. And Fulmer, also a leverage guy, wasn't great either in last night's game.

Most teams are going to struggle when their 8th and 9th inning guys have bad days... it doesn't really matter which order they pitch in IMO

I suppose Soto has an option, so there's that.

Anyone advocating for sending him down to AAA?

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I like the Statcast stats a lot. They are designed to take into account quality of contact and placement of batted balls, with their attendant likelihood of falling in safely, to help us understand how well a player is doing in the thing they are supposed to be: driving the ball hard if they're hitting, and inducing soft contact if they're pitching. There's really nothing else hitters and pitchers can actually try to do. Outside of bunting for hits, or doing swinging bunts, batters really can't "try" to get base hits other than hitting the ball hard and hoping you did it right so it will fall in.

Granted, these are forward-looking metrics. Soto's stats said he was doing great: 1-0, 3 saves in five appearances, 1.59 ERA. But his Statcast card indicated that this was a mirage, and in this particular case, we happened to see the result Statcast forecasted versus his traditional stats.

Statcast's intention is not to tell us how a batter did in terms of slash lines or outcomes, but rather what we can likely expect the batter to do in future at bats, under the reasonable assumption that if they've been hitting the ball hard and bad-lucking into outs, they can probably expect more hits to fall in if they keep hitting the ball hard like that. Yes, that's an assumption, and sure, "ass you me" can always apply. But it's a better assumption that the batter continue to hit the ball hard as his track record has indicated than it is to assume that a batter's quality of contact is a completely random circumstance, or worse, that a batter is going to suddenly change how hard he's hitting the ball because he's due.

Ironically, FIP is very much also a process-oriented stat like the Statcast stats are, in its attempts to weed out the luck of outcomes from balls in play and boil it down to what a pitcher''s ERA "should be" based on the things he can better control: strikeouts, walks, HBPs, homers. In this way, FIP is quite related to Statcast stats. wOBA on the other hand is very outcome-oriented and has nothing to do with quality of contact.

They aren't more predictive than the previous group of saber stats though, at least not for pitchers. They don't help us predict future performance any better than K%, BB%, FIP, etc.  They do work better for hitters.  

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

They aren't more predictive than the previous group of saber stats though, at least not for pitchers. They don't help us predict future performance any better than K%, BB%, FIP, etc.  They do work better for hitters.  

They were very predictive of Soto last night!

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

They were very predictive of Soto last night!

The flip side is that they weren't too predictive of Fulmer last night.

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

outfield defense is the teams biggest weakness. We are average to below average in every spot. And Hill is not a regular nor as good as his highlight plays suggest. Haase said the ball was slippery. I wish he would have said " I never should have thrown to third with the runner STANDING on the bag". His play was at second but he did not know Soto was covering home. But it all started with 8 straight balls by Soto which is inviting disaster.

I would have thought the best rotation would be Soto to 1st and Tork come home while Haase runs at the man between 2nd and third, staying to the right to force him to 3rd together with the other runner. 1st is the least likely place for the play to end so the best place for the  pitcher. Haase's job is to keep the #2 runner from getting back to 2nd

Edited April 27, 2022 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

I'm still not so sold on Fulmer at 91-93 mph either.

Edited April 27, 2022 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The flip side is that they weren't too predictive of Fulmer last night.

I know. I was funnin'.

[gehringer_2]

Soto will be fine.

I would agree I think a team is better off without assigning 'roles' but that's Hinch's problem, not Soto or Fulmer's.

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

They were very predictive of Soto last night!

As were Soto's walk rate and the Tigers poor defense.  

[kdog]

The Riley Greene injury had so many domino effects.

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm still not so sold on Fulmer either at 91-93 mph either.

I wish Hinch would be open to a more "by committee" approach, but even by that measure, I'm fine with how he ultimately staged the relievers yesterday (ie. Fulmer for the top of the Twins order, Soto for after). Fulmer got the better part of the lineup, which would have made sense in any event for me.

I do wonder over the course of this year whether Lange may catch up to / pass Soto and/or Fulmer.... he's got great stuff, and if he finds more consistency, I think his ceiling is higher.

Edited April 27, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I wish Hinch would be open to a more "by committee" approach, but even by that measure, I'm fine with how he ultimately staged the relievers yesterday (ie. Fulmer for the top of the Twins order, Soto for after). Fulmer got the better part of the lineup, which would have made sense in any event for me.

I do wonder over the course of this year whether Lange will may catch up to / pass Soto and/or Fulmer.... he's got great stuff, and if he finds more consistency, I think his ceiling is higher.

I still it goes back to bringing a guy who is under normal circumstance effectively wild into 30 deg weather who had thrown a total of 14 pitches in the last 12 days. Cripes - nowadays they send starters for rehab when they get that much time off. It was bad BP management on a longer time frame than just last night and Hinch should not get a pass on that aspect.

Edited April 27, 2022 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I still it goes back to bringing a guy who is under normal circumstance effectively wild into 30 deg weather who had thrown a total of 14 pitches in the last 12 days. Cripes - nowadays they send starters for rehab when they get that much time off. It was bad BP management on a longer time frame than just last night and Hinch should not get a pass on that aspect.

Yeah, I do agree with this. And ultimately could be an example of how the relative strength of the bullpen with the expanded bullpen size may have worked to his disadvantage.

In retrospect, the Angel De Jesus game would have been a good one for him to work in, or perhaps the following game that night.

[RandyMarsh]

The Tigers need to call up Jobe and put him in the fireman role,  I mean why waste the 3rd pick on a guy if you're just going to stash him in the minors???!?? - radio caller

[RatkoVarda]

41 minutes ago, kdog said:

The Riley Greene injury had so many domino effects.

getting Meadows I think might be worth all this temporary stupidity

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I still it goes back to bringing a guy who is under normal circumstance effectively wild into 30 deg weather who had thrown a total of 14 pitches in the last 12 days. Cripes - nowadays they send starters for rehab when they get that much time off. It was bad BP management on a longer time frame than just last night and Hinch should not get a pass on that aspect.

I agree 100%. I like Hinch but this loss is on him. And being a stand up guy, he would probably admit it.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

On the reliever discussion, for arguments sake, let's say that Fulmer is actually the closer and given the 9th in last night's game.

What do you do with Soto? Do you send him out there in the 8th to protect the one run lead? Would he have been any better or more reliable in one's view pitching in the 8th rather than the 9th? Do you bump Lange up to the set up man and drop Soto down to the 7th inning? Should he just not come in at all and have someone like Barnes or Vest pitch? Should they have stuck Chafin in there on his first day back? Where do you draw the line?

That's sort of the problem with having a debate about Soto in the closer role within the context of last night's game.... at the end of the day, even if you rearrange the deck chairs, he's still one of your leverage guys and is going to have to come in during leverage situations. You can't just hide him. And Fulmer, also a leverage guy, wasn't great either in last night's game.

Most teams are going to struggle when their 8th and 9th inning guys have bad days... it doesn't really matter which order they pitch in IMO

No reason to panic in a single game in 30⁰ weather. Soto will be fine with enough work to stay sharp. The guy has really good stuff.

[Sports_Freak]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Also, I really like Fulmer, but he sucked last night. Like Soto, he threw more balls than strikes and was lucky to get out of that 8th inning given all the hard contact. 

The debate over who should be the primary closer is a valid one, and maybe Fulmer should be given more consideration for that role, but last night's game is not the game to use to make that argument. Neither one was good, and given how Fulmer pitched, I can't say with any certitude that a better result would have taken place. 

Fulmer had the much more dangerous part of the Twins lineup to face. He didn't give up any runs. He threw more balls than strikes? Good, he didn't just pitch to their power, he kept the ball away from them and let them get themselves out.

[mtutiger]

22 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Fulmer had the much more dangerous part of the Twins lineup to face. He didn't give up any runs. He threw more balls than strikes? Good, he didn't just pitch to their power, he kept the ball away from them and let them get themselves out.

Alternatively, he didn't have a good outing.

I like Fulmer, but I'm just calling it like I saw it. He wasn't good, and he was lucky that it wasn't worse.

[Sports_Freak]

16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Alternatively, he didn't have a good outing.

I like Fulmer, but I'm just calling it like I saw it. He wasn't good, and he was lucky that it wasn't worse.

Wasn't worse? He faced the heart of their lineup and didn't give up any runs. Never gave into them, made them swing at his pitches. I only wish Soto would have pitched as bad as Fulmer and not allowed any runs to score 

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Wasn't worse? He faced the heart of their lineup and didn't give up any runs. Never gave into them, made them swing at his pitches. I only wish Soto would have pitched as bad as Fulmer and not allowed any runs to score 

He threw more balls than strikes. And he served up a cookie to Buxton that was lucky to not have been hit out. 

How Soto pitched has absolutely no bearing or relevance on the job that Fulmer did... he wasn't good and he got lucky that he didn't give up any runs. I have a lot of confidence in him, but just because I do doesn't mean I'm gonna pull punches when I see him have a subpar outing. Sorry.

Edited April 27, 2022 by mtutiger