The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, gehringer_2 said:

LOL 28% isn't much a "win" is it? I know runoffs are expensive but in an ideal world you would have to get 50% to win any election. What is your main knock on Thanedar?

I think he is a fraud. He was a Republican in 2008 and in 2018 he asked a strategist what he should run as. Since the tide favored Democrats, he ran as a Democrat. He pumped the city of Detroit with ads and a bunch of low information voters voted for him. In true Democrat fashion, the Democrats couldn't consolidate around one candidate. You had about 8 other candidates splitting votes. Now Detroit is going to have no black representation in congress for the first time in about 70 years. 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I think he is a fraud. He was a Republican in 2008 and in 2018 he asked a strategist what he should run as. Since the tide favored Democrats, he ran as a Democrat. He pumped the city of Detroit with ads and a bunch of low information voters voted for him. In true Democrat fashion, the Democrats couldn't consolidate around one candidate. You had about 8 other candidates splitting votes. Now Detroit is going to have no black representation in congress for the first time in about 70 years. 

Funny I don't remember the 2018 Gub. primary much at all. I guess there are years when I know that the chance of anything 'the other guy' does could change my mind are so small I basically don't pay any attention to them. But now that you jogged my memory I remember the party switch, etc...

Edited August 3, 2022 by gehringer_2

[CMRivdogs]

17 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

LOL 28% isn't much a "win" is it? I know runoffs are expensive but in an ideal world you would have to get 50% to win any election. What is your main knock on Thanedar?

Another argument for ranked choice voting. Knock off the lowest vote getter in every round until you reach a 50+% majority. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

Meijer also outspent Gibbs 6:1, I believe.

The DCCC strategy piece is something to consider, but at the end of the day, voters are going out and voting for these candidates. For whatever reason, mainstream R operatives (and the press) can't stop letting them off the hook for their choices.

Edited August 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[CMRivdogs]

 

[mtutiger]

49 minutes ago, romad1 said:

There was considerable vote for No in the rural areas that went against the tide of the districts.   Even where it was +90 R vote for this election it was closer to +50 for Yes. 

I don't know that it changes any priors about this upcoming Midterms (ie. probably won't be great for Ds), but I do think it proves once and for all that the success that GOP has in much of the country is in spite of, and not because of, their reliance on pro-life voters and advocacy of extreme positions on the issue.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[CMRivdogs]

Just one more note on the whole Meijer/Gibbs/Democrat thing. Meijer was censured by his own party for voting for impeachment. The party chairman jokingly(?) called for his assignation. How many mainline "Republicans" came to his district to campaign for him. The ads he Democrats ran told it like it is about his opponent, that he was backed by Trump, lied about the 2020 election, etc.

How exactly did the ads hurt Meijer? 

[CMRivdogs]

If an election denier wins an election is it truly a legitimate victory?
 

 

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

is he trying to say GOP turnout should be larger than Dem turnout because Whitmer is un-opposed? I suppose as a general proposition -- OK, but this was a singularly uninspiring gov race on the GOP side. Still no proof in that that regular GOP voters wont sill line up behind and turn out for the GOP candidate in Nov.

Edited August 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

is he trying to say GOP turnout should be larger than Dem turnout because Whitmer is un-opposed? I suppose as a general proposition -- OK, but this was a singularly uninspiring gov race on the GOP side. Still no proof in that that regular GOP voters wont sill line up behind and turn out for the GOP candidate in Nov.

I think the fact that more Ds turned out for Slotkin than Rs for whoever that guy is in a district that is very purple when there was a GOP primary for Gov seems indicative that the D vote is energized. 

[Motown Bombers]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

is he trying to say GOP turnout should be larger than Dem turnout because Whitmer is un-opposed? I suppose as a general proposition -- OK, but this was a singularly uninspiring gov race on the GOP side. Still no proof in that that regular GOP voters wont sill line up behind and turn out for the GOP candidate in Nov.

It shows enthusiasm on the Democratic side. Whitmer was uncontested. Slotkin was uncontested. There really wasn't much to vote for on the Democratic side. The Republicans had a contested primary and yet Barrett still got fewer votes. I suppose it is possible a lot of Republicans voted for governor and left the rest of the ballot blank. 

[CMRivdogs]

22 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I think he is a fraud. He was a Republican in 2008 and in 2018 he asked a strategist what he should run as. Since the tide favored Democrats, he ran as a Democrat. He pumped the city of Detroit with ads and a bunch of low information voters voted for him. In true Democrat fashion, the Democrats couldn't consolidate around one candidate. You had about 8 other candidates splitting votes. Now Detroit is going to have no black representation in congress for the first time in about 70 years. 

What people really want to know is whether his hair is real or not. My wife has had a few meetings with him or where he has attended. He always looks like he might be high on something.

That said, I would still vote for him over my current insurrection supporting/election denying congress critter. The guy keeps touting how his office helps folks in getting passports and $$$ for the shipyard. I expect much more.

[mtutiger]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

is he trying to say GOP turnout should be larger than Dem turnout because Whitmer is un-opposed? I suppose as a general proposition -- OK, but this was a singularly uninspiring gov race on the GOP side. Still no proof in that that regular GOP voters wont sill line up behind and turn out for the GOP candidate in Nov.

I would expect them to, but Michigan is an open-primary state and independents vote in these primaries as well. Generally the out-party nationally tends to perform better under those circumstances in open-primary states, but it appears like that maybe didn't play out exactly that way in Slotkin's district.

Either way, I would take it as some good news for Slotkin, though it's not guarantee of a win come November.

[Tigerbomb13]

22 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I think he is a fraud. He was a Republican in 2008 and in 2018 he asked a strategist what he should run as. Since the tide favored Democrats, he ran as a Democrat. He pumped the city of Detroit with ads and a bunch of low information voters voted for him. In true Democrat fashion, the Democrats couldn't consolidate around one candidate. You had about 8 other candidates splitting votes. Now Detroit is going to have no black representation in congress for the first time in about 70 years. 

Didn’t he also abandon dogs that he was using for medical testing? I remember it being pretty appalling. 

[CMRivdogs]

Interesting Pa poll, especially if it's anywhere close to accurate and can hold. Fetterman with a 17 point lead. Polling well with 20% of Republican voters and 17% Trump voters. There is no way the Lizard of Oz can overcome this if it stays true in November. 

https://centerstreetpac.com/poll-fetterman-leads-dr-oz-in-pennsylvania/?r=45wcm&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Either way, I would take it as some good news for Slotkin, though it's not guarantee of a win come November.

fair enough that it is a good sign, it's just not something I'd be that excited about as it is a pretty soft indicator IMO and it  wasn't  big differential in absolute terms. Sure you get motivation points for being near 50/50 turn out if it's normally a heavy GOP district, but while getting to 50/50 may be a strong indicator all is not well on the R side, it's still isn't a strong predictor of a win.

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

fair enough that it is a good sign, it's just not something I'd be that excited about as it is a pretty soft indicator IMO and it  wasn't  big differential in absolute terms. Sure you get motivation points for being near 50/50 turn out if it's normally a heavy GOP district, but while getting to 50/50 may be a strong indicator all is not well on the R side, it's still isn't a strong predictor of a win.

It's a 50/50 district. She won her two elections with 50.6 and 50.9 of the vote. Granted the district is a little different but she still got more votes than the GOP candidate despite there being nothing for the Democrats to vote for. She got about 20,000 more votes in this primary than she did in 2020 when there was a contested Democratic presidential primary. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

 

[ewsieg]

On 8/3/2022 at 12:39 PM, CMRivdogs said:

Just one more note on the whole Meijer/Gibbs/Democrat thing. Meijer was censured by his own party for voting for impeachment. The party chairman jokingly(?) called for his assignation. How many mainline "Republicans" came to his district to campaign for him. The ads he Democrats ran told it like it is about his opponent, that he was backed by Trump, lied about the 2020 election, etc.

How exactly did the ads hurt Meijer? 

If you're argument here is that the DCCC was pumping money into this campaign to actually boost Meijer and it was simply their incompetency in running an effective ad campaign which led to Meijer still losing, you might have me agreeing with you. If it's one thing i've seen with the Democrats is they are largely incompetent.   

[Motown Bombers]

I mean, Scholten was going to face Gibbs or Meijer. Why is it such a crime to run ads against either one before the primary? 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I don't know that it will work as Ohio has burned Democrats time and again with the false hope of winning. That said, Tim Ryan is hammering Vance as an out of touch, elite, billionaire who helicoptered back into Ohio from San Francisco to run for Senate. He's taking a similar, aggressive, offense-based approach that John Fetterman's campaign is using in PA against Dr. Oz. He's using an old Republican tactic by hammering Vance with a culture war, wedge issue as a San Francisco billionaire.

[mtutiger]

24 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

 

Very skepitcal that Ryan can win, but I think we've seen enough to conclude that Vance is an awful candidate and should be grouped in with the Oz/Walker/Masters crowd.

[Motown Bombers]

With this new redistricting, Detroit will not have black representation in nearly 70 years, it will be the first time in over 40 years a Levin hasn't represented Michigan in congress, and Macomb County is likely to have no Democratic representation in 70 years.