chasfh Posted July 29, 2022 Author Share Posted July 29, 2022 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: well, TBH, I don't think this kind of polling means squat. It's a lot easier to poll people on what they think than what they will actually do because 1) you are usually asking them before they have actually thought about what they are going to do. 2) there is always a lot of space between what people say they are going to do and what they end up doing. It's why polling for turnout has never been much use either. That's partly why I never put any stock into polling done months before elections occur. So much, too much, can happen in the intervening months. It's why whenever I see my preferred candidate leading any months-out poll, I'm inclined to post, "quick, call the election for today!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Most experts believe that 90% of elections are cooked and decided by Labor Day. I think that is because most elections are blowouts but...yeah, they say that if you have a 10 point lead on Labor Day you are likely to hold that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, romad1 said: Most experts believe that 90% of elections are cooked and decided by Labor Day. I think that is because most elections are blowouts but...yeah, they say that if you have a 10 point lead on Labor Day you are likely to hold that. and your 10% was Hillary. She almost certainly wins if the election comes the day after the 1st debate. She lost a lot of ground late. Edited July 29, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: well, TBH, I don't think this kind of polling means squat. It's a lot easier to poll people on what they think than what they will actually do because 1) you are usually asking them before they have actually thought about what they are going to do. 2) there is always a lot of space between what people say they are going to do and what they end up doing. It's why polling for turnout has never been much use either. Polling does matter this early on insofar that it guides the parties in terms of how they choose to spend campaign money. Pennsylvania is a great example... Josh Shapiro has a 10-1 cash advantage in the Govs race versus Mastriano. Thus far, the RGA (Republican Governor's Association) hasn't invested much, if at all, into the race. They probably have internal polls that are more accurate, but while the fact that they aren't weighing in has some to do with Mastriano being a morally awful candidate, some of it probably does reflect that he is doing poorly in H2H matchups as well. And the money thing matters... cash can have diminishing returns to a point, but a 10-1 cash advantage is hard to work at this early point when you are a relative unknown in a statewide race, it allows your opponent to define you. Oz, despite being a more well known figure, is in a similar boat as well... and both of them are at risk of not being able to recover from being defined early. Edited July 29, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 We complain about Democratic unity a lot, but sometimes it isn't reflective of what actually happens in primaries... the expectation has been more internecine fighting with the Ds, but that largely hasn't played out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 This may be a deke or a ploy to get Dems to spend more in Dem leaning races, but overall it's a piece of evidence that the Rs are pretty concerned that Oz and Walker could mess things up in GA and PA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Fetterman won the primary by 32 points. That's considered competitive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Polling does matter this early on insofar that it guides the parties in terms of how they choose to spend campaign money. no arg on this. I was referring in particular to polling on motivational questions (are you going to vote in the fall) being more suspect in comparison to opinion polling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: Saving innocent school kids from drag queens.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 56 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: Saving innocent school kids from drag queens.... but she's backed by the ne'er Trumpers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Trump never heard of Dixon before. He saw her on TV and he liked her boobs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Trump never heard of Dixon before. He saw her on TV and he liked her boobs. To be fair, not many Michiganers heard of any of this flotsam group of Republicans. Outside of James Craig who got disqualified, I only heard of Rinke and that's because I live near his shitty dealership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Trump never heard of Dixon before. He saw her on TV and he liked her boobs. They are compelling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 9 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Trump never heard of Dixon before. He saw her on TV and he liked her boobs. The irony of all of Trump's endorsements: eminently valuable, yet the guy couldn't pick of any of his endorsees out of a lineup lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, mtutiger said: The irony of all of Trump's endorsements: eminently valuable, yet the guy couldn't pick of any of his endorsees out of a lineup lol I don't know if he's valuable or whether he chooses those who his adivosrs say are favorites, so he can get a "win". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I don't know if he's valuable or whether he chooses those who his adivosrs say are favorites, so he can get a "win". Who are left to be his “advisors”, Lee? lol. Eric and Junior? Not even Ivanka’s hanging in there anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 49 minutes ago, smr-nj said: Who are left to be his “advisors”, Lee? lol. Eric and Junior? Not even Ivanka’s hanging in there anymore. I think there are still a lot of media people and businessmen he can call - like-minded con men. He is still popular and would likely win the primaries if they were held now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 just checked out my sample ballot on ballotpedia and it appears I have no initiatives/ballot measures on there, all of the Democrats in the primary are running unopposed, leaving basically which republican to run against the dems in the general. I'm honestly wondering if it's worth it to take the time to vote in this primary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 55 minutes ago, pfife said: just checked out my sample ballot on ballotpedia and it appears I have no initiatives/ballot measures on there, all of the Democrats in the primary are running unopposed, leaving basically which republican to run against the dems in the general. I'm honestly wondering if it's worth it to take the time to vote in this primary. I'm going so I can vote for all the anti-Chris Taylor dems on the city ballot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: I'm going so I can vote for all the anti-Chris Taylor dems on the city ballot. Hell yes, good deal. That dude..... smh.... Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) I'm in Pittsfield and not in the City so I don't think that stuff is on my ballot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 1 hour ago, pfife said: just checked out my sample ballot on ballotpedia and it appears I have no initiatives/ballot measures on there, all of the Democrats in the primary are running unopposed, leaving basically which republican to run against the dems in the general. I'm honestly wondering if it's worth it to take the time to vote in this primary. I'm voting, not because I am thrilled to though. The person running against my US house rep is hoping to form her own right wing squad with Boebart and Greene, so I have to vote against her, even though i'm not happy with my current US house rep. And than for Michigan House, one is Trump backed, so i'm voting against her too. Still not sure what i'm going with the GOP governor. I kind of want to write in James Craig, but will probably end up voting for Rinke. There is a part of me that thinks Rinke has the best shot to defeat Whitmer, which makes me not want to vote for him, but I would prefer him over any other GOP person (that is on the ballot) exponentially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 1, 2022 Author Share Posted August 1, 2022 Tell you what: it won't be just Michigan. I could see 100 or more races being held up for days, weeks, months over this. Maybe they don't even seat dozens of reps come next January 3. Who knows at this point what kind of mess we've allowed ourselves to get into. 1 big scoop: Some counties might refuse to certify primary elections Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios Michigan election officials tell Axios that they expect some counties will refuse to certify election results this year. Why it matters: Election officials say it could bring chaos that will stress courts and potentially undercut the legitimacy of elections and elected officials. How it works: Elections are complete only once county and statewide boards certify the results. If a local board were to refuse certification, they would be sued by winning candidates in that county. A court would then order them to certify. If they wait until after the canvassing period and fail to certify, Michigan would move the county's canvass to the state. Context: Republicans across Michigan have replaced canvassers who pushed back against baseless fraud claims in 2020 to certify results for President Joe Biden. It's unclear whether new GOP canvassers will uphold their oaths or be influenced by election conspiracy theories. Wayne County's newest GOP canvasser declined to say whether he would certify the results of the 2022 and 2024 elections when asked by the Free Press. What they're saying: "Voters should be wary of attempts to sow seeds of doubt in the integrity of Michigan elections, which are proven among the most secure and accurate in the country, by election canvassers who illegally refuse to fulfill their duty under the law," a spokesperson for the Secretary of State's office tells Axios. "Any attempts will be futile as we are confident courts would swiftly enforce the law and block or overturn any attempts to illegally deny certification." "Our office will ensure that regardless of who wins or loses an election, the will of the people will rule the day.” Flashback: Wayne County's stalled certification of the 2020 election became a national story after hours of deadlock. It ultimately certified the election because of a since-ousted Republican member. The big picture: Michigan could be one of a handful of states where certain counties force the election process to the courts. A Republican-led board in New Mexico's rural Otero County refused to certify its primary election results over conspiracy-fueled distrust of Dominion voting machines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 On 7/30/2022 at 8:34 AM, Tiger337 said: I don't know if he's valuable or whether he chooses those who his adivosrs say are favorites, so he can get a "win". He chooses whoever licks his boots the most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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