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The 2022 Midterm Elections


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18 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

The numbers in this poll were bizarre and probably the most stark example of the gap between Biden's JA numbers and Senate/Gov race polling... Biden is (iirc) -29 among Georgia voters, yet Abrams/Kemp are tied and Warnock is +10 over Walker. We've seen this in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan this cycle, where the Senate/Gov candidates are running ahead of where Biden is JA wise, but not to the degree Warnock and Abrams are here.

I don't know if that stands, it's counterintuitive, but it lends to the idea that a lot of Biden's drop in approval over time has come as much from his left flank as it has from his right. 

Then again, this is Quinnipiac.... not exactly the best polling outfit.

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2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

The numbers in this poll were bizarre and probably the most stark example of the gap between Biden's JA numbers and Senate/Gov race polling... Biden is (iirc) -29 among Georgia voters, yet Abrams/Kemp are tied and Warnock is +10 over Walker. We've seen this in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan this cycle, where the Senate/Gov candidates are running ahead of where Biden is JA wise, but not to the degree Warnock and Abrams are here.

I don't know if that stands, it's counterintuitive, but it lends to the idea that a lot of Biden's drop in approval over time has come as much from his left flank as it has from his right. 

Then again, this is Quinnipiac.... not exactly the best polling outfit.

This says two things to me:

1) I hope that means that Dems will do better in 2022 than the current rumor mill. And that whatever negatives someone wants to apply to Biden, will NOT apply in the local/ state voting.

2) That might also say that even though Biden wants to run in 2024... maybe he gets pushed out the door? By Whitmer or someone else...?

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4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

The numbers in this poll were bizarre and probably the most stark example of the gap between Biden's JA numbers and Senate/Gov race polling... Biden is (iirc) -29 among Georgia voters, yet Abrams/Kemp are tied and Warnock is +10 over Walker. We've seen this in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan this cycle, where the Senate/Gov candidates are running ahead of where Biden is JA wise, but not to the degree Warnock and Abrams are here.

I don't know if that stands, it's counterintuitive, but it lends to the idea that a lot of Biden's drop in approval over time has come as much from his left flank as it has from his right. 

Then again, this is Quinnipiac.... not exactly the best polling outfit.

because Warnock/Walker is a choice. I don't think comparing JA polling of a public in a sour mood to an actual voting choice is necessarily informative. The 'other guy' is always a better concept than the real person it turns out to be. OTOH, Walker is .....just Walker so that's not much of a measure either. Abrams/Kemp is probably the real marker in GA.

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

because Warnock/Walker is a choice. I don't think comparing JA polling of a public in a sour mood to an actual voting choice is necessarily informative. The 'other guy' is always a better concept than the real person it turns out to be. OTOH, Walker is .....just Walker so that's not much of a measure either. Abrams/Kemp is probably the real marker in GA.

This is right and probably explains some of the Senate polling in PA and WI as well... Oz and Ron Johnson are choices as well.

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3 hours ago, romad1 said:

The twitter version of a curb stomping

Herschel Walker gets all the attention, but Oz is low key running as bad a campaign... he's incapable of not playing into the framing of a carpetbagger opportunist. It almost seems like performance art.

But in 2022, he still has a chance unfortunately 

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34 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Herschel Walker gets all the attention, but Oz is low key running as bad a campaign... he's incapable of not playing into the framing of a carpetbagger opportunist. It almost seems like performance art.

But in 2022, he still has a chance unfortunately 

Its never bad business to downplay your chances.  However Walker and Oz are not doing well.  

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